[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

A lot of the charts appear to show Glasgow being on the south western extent of the showers. I’m hopeful of seeing some snow but how much remains to be seen. It looks like most of the action will be to the north of the Forth and especially north of the Tay. I think some parts of Fife, Angus, Perthshire and Aberdeenshire could see up to at least a foot of snow. 

It’ll also be interesting to see how cold it will get under such a cold airmass. The met office are going for nights of 2C and lows of -2C. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with colder values than current projections - perhaps later next week we could see some very low minimum temperatures especially in areas with snow cover. 

Looking further ahead the models are suggesting an extension of the cold spell into next weekend and possibly into the following week. We could end up with cold, anticyclonic conditions or perhaps another easterly. I’m in two minds about the potential breakdown. There’s a part of me that would like to see a proper snowy breakdown (especially if the easterly struggles to deliver for central and western areas) but it would also be great to have a more prolonged cold spell. We could potentially be looking at the coldest February since 1986 and maybe even a subzero mean temperature for the month if the cold persists beyond mid month - that would make for a notably cold winter if not an especially snowy one. Ideally, we end up with a big battleground snow event to conclude a memorable week for cold and snow with the cold winning out with further easterlies followed by high pressure retrogressing to Greenland. 

 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

In the Beast from the east the red warning covered much of the central belt with Dumbarton on the western edge of the warning. 26cm fell here just to the north of Glasgow. If I remember correctly less snow fell in the south side of Glasgow whilst some places further west around such as Greenock and Balloch got a lot of snow - up to 2 feet in some places.

The Beast from the East exceeded my expectations - an absolutely unforgettable experience - though it was a very uneven event in terms of snow depths. I remember having concerns about the convective potential given the lower SSTs so late in the season but that didn’t turn out to be an issue. I think initially it started as an ENEly on the 27th with a stream of showers from the Tay towards Glasgow and once the first couple of inches had fallen I felt much more relaxed about the easterly delivering. A few weeks later there was another easterly which also produced 5cm. There haven’t been too many easterlies in recent years - prior to 2018, March 2013 had frequent snow showers but accumulations were no better than 2-3cm. Nov 2010 was phenomenal with 25cm and 2nd Feb 2009 also produced an inch or two. 

During easterlies most places to the east of the M74, Cumbernauld, Loch Earn and the Cairngorms tend to do well depending on where streamers set up and the track of showers. Usually some should reach Renfrewshire, the Erskine Bridge and Loch Lomond. It’s a struggle for areas further west, in particular Ayrshire and parts of the Western Highlands and Islands, though 2018 is an example of how easterlies can deliver to areas west of Glasgow. 

I’m keeping expectations low and hoping for at least a couple of inches snow here - which should be more than achievable but not inevitable looking at the charts. Once that threshold is hopefully reached then it becomes a case of how much snow will fall rather than if. Given the potential in the charts it would be great if the western central Belt can get 10-30cm to rival 2018 and other memorable snowfalls - anything more than 30cm is almost too much! Areas in the eastern half of Scotland could see widely 15-40cm with the worst hit areas seeing more than half a metre which would rank among the best events in the past few decades.

It will also be nice to have a few ice days which is rarer in February compared to earlier in the winter. Despite a very cold January Glasgow is yet to a record a maximum of 0C or lower. Looking at the models from this morning it appears the cold might be extended by a day or two with much of Scotland under uppers below -10C which is remarkable. Hopefully the blocking is more robust than the models are showing and we end up extending the cold further into February. If not then perhaps we could see a snowy breakdown on top of the snow from the easterly. An interesting 10 days are ahead of us and it will be fascinating to see how this event compares to 2018 and other events .

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

The precipitation is starting to turn wintry.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

A pretty miserable morning with damp, windy and cold conditions. This weekend and early next week is looking increasingly interesting with the GFS joining the other models in what could be the stand out event of a cold winter.

We could be looking st the most significant cold spell in the mid Jan-mid Feb period since 1991. Other than 2001, 2009 and 2018 there have not been too many noteworthy cold spells in February but I think it’s safe to say 2021 will join that list. I think we are looking at a more prolonged easterly than 2018 and a more potent cold spell than 2009. It’s far too early to predict how much snow will fall and where but I think parts of the Borders, Fife, Perthshire, Angus and Aberdeenshire exposes to the wind should do very well. 

No two easterlies are exactly the same so we just need to wait and see if the North Sea snow machine is in good condition and whether the snow showers are heavy, widespread and make it far inland or perhaps some more organised snowfall. There’s always the chance of hit and miss snow showers with uneven snow depths over short distances. I probably would have preferred the easterly to have occurred in January but given this is happening a few weeks earlier than 2018 I presume slightly warmer SSTs and weaker sun should help despite the uppers not as cold as 2018. Having said that it would appear Scotland may be under -10C uppers for longer than 2018, 1991 and 1987 and with lower air pressure and atmospheric pressure aswell. Areas to the north and east of Glasgow should widely see depths in excess of 20cm with more than 40cn in worst hit areas with altitude. I think 5-25cm is more realistic for parts of the Lothians, Lanarkshire and Glasgow area with areas close to the west coast struggling although snow showers could funnel through to the Clyde estuary if a streamer sets up. Hopefully the cold spell will be prolonged and we could be looking at perhaps the coldest February since 1986 (which is long overdue). 

 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

It’s been snowing lightly for a while but it looks like it might become heavier. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

It seems we are in the wrong side of marginal for now. I think we’ll have to endure a period of rain before conditions become favourable for snow. 

The overnight runs were pretty interesting - most of the models looking very good for an easterly. It’s a bit concerning to see the GFS not on the same page as the other models though it’s still a snowy run. 

I notice the provisional mean temperature for January in Scotland was 0.5C. Very impressive - the coldest month since December 2010, the joint 4th coldest month of the past 30 years,  and the the 15th coldest January since 1884. 

 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

A cold and sunny start to February. Hopefully we are on the cusp of the most significant weather of the winter so far. This winter up to date has been a colder version of 00/01, 05/06, 08/09, 12/13 - and not too dissimilar to some winters of the 80s. What all of those winters had in common were notable spells of either low temperatures, heavy snowfall or prolonged cold. Hopefully this upcoming cold spell will produce larger snowfalls and colder temperatures than we’ve seen so far. I don’t think we’ll see cold spell with the severity of 2010 or the Beast from the East in terms of either duration or intensity but I do think we could be looking at one of the more notable February cold spells of the last 30 years. It would be great to experience something to rival 2010 or 2018, but we don’t need an exceptional event to deliver a memorable cold spell or snowfall. 

A below average month is quite likely if we avoid a mild second half and if the cold persists or even intensifies beyond mid February then we could be looking at one of the coldest months of the past 35 years and would make 20/21 a notably cold winter. 

In the meantime we have the prospect of potentially significant snow in some areas. The high ground and parts of eastern Scotland away from the coast could see a lot of snow - totals in excess of a foot is more than possible. Elsewhere I expect precipitation alternate between snow and rain with accumulations mostly in places higher than 100m. Hopefully the precipitation remains as snow for most of us and it’s the type of snow that settles. Here in the Glasgow area I think we’ll be lucky to see more than a couple of inches. 

It looks like later this week we’ll see an easterly of sorts develop. The details on duration, how cold the uppers will be and whether it will be dry or snowy remains to be seen though it looks promising for eastern parts of Scotland. It isn’t a done deal yet but the chances of a potentially potent easterly is growing. Hopefully we end up with a proper Greenland High establishing to prolong the cold further into February or perhaps a snowy breakdown. Certainly an interesting period of weather coming up! 

 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

It looks like the mean temperature for Glasgow airport will be around 1.3C. Since 1973 only 1979, 1985, 1987 and 2010 had lower values and this month is tied with December 2009 and February 2010 as the fourth coldest since 1988 with only December 1995 and January and December 2010 being colder. So a notably cold month but more so for the lack of above average temperatures rather than severe low temperatures. The maximum has reached or exceeded 7C on 5 occasions and lows have been 2C or higher only 6 times this month - both totals fewer than 2010. 

January 2021 reminds me a little of February 2010 which was statistically notably cold but the weather was mostly quiet and unexciting. In the past milder months with a more active Atlantic have seen more potent episodes of cold and snow. Numerous  other months had lower highs than the 1C recorded this month and January 2015 and 2019 both had two snowfalls of more than 2 inches compared to one fall of 4cm this year. On the other hand some parts of the south east of Scotland and places with height have had a more than decent January for snowfall. 

 

Overall it has been a very respectable if unremarkable month with the first half in particular seeing lots of fine winter sunshine, some very cold nights including -11C and  a number of snowfalls leaving a covering. The second half has been generally below average but cloudier and less cold at night with a few attempts at frontal snowfalls being to marginal to deliver more than a brief cover of slush.

Certainly a helluva lot better than recent years (especially the last couple) but we’ve lacked established blocking injecting proper cold air and delivering more widespread, heavier and less marginal snowfalls and longer lasting and deeper snow cover. Hopefully the next couple of weeks we’ll be rewarded with something special. The past few weeks have seen the models promise tantalising Synoptics only for it to be watered down leaving us on the margins of significant cold - sadly this hasn’t been too uncommon in the last nine years. For once it would be great if we could finally see the promise of proper high latitude blocking coming to fruition. If it does, then we could be looking at the most significant cold spell in the heart of winter (mid Jan-mid Feb) since 1991. A more watered down version could still be fairly notable like February 2009 but there’s still the chance things go pear shaped like Feb 2012. At the very least early February is looking cold with some chances for snow.

I’m keeping an eye on the potential frontal snowfall next week which could  be impressive in some areas. I’m hoping we all end up with a good dumping of snow but I always keep expectations low in set ups like this. More often than not we see frontal snow end up further south than originally forecast, or too marginal or light for accumulations. Here’s hoping we end up with an all snow event which settles. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Heavy snow but it’s not settling. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Just wet sleety snow just now. I think most of action tomorrow will be to the east of here where there could be sine significant accumulations. There haven’t been too many notable frontal snowfalls in recent years and I think tomorrow won’t be the last oppurtunity this winter. I’m expecting no more than a couple of inches at best tomorrow though I’m hoping for a surprise. 

It’s been a pretty decent start to the winter - a big improvement on the last couple of years - and the first half of January was pretty cold with a mean of 0.4 at Glasgow Airport and the coldest minimum since 2010. It hasn’t been spectacular on the snow front though there have been a few nice falls of snow and I’m hoping the second half of the winter will deliver something memorable. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

A nice covering of snow this morning and it’s still coming down nicely though I’m not sure for how much longer.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

A minimum of -11C at Glasgow Airport which is the coldest since 25 December 2010. I would expect some rural locations had lows close to -15C.

Some other very low temperatures  include -9C at Edinburgh, -8C at Aberdeen and -7C at Prestwick.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Some wonderful pictures of what was a perfect winter’s day. Cloudless skies, no wind, temperatures barely above freezing and dropping like a stone after sunset, and a covering of sparkling snow. There’s been a lot of crisp winter sunshine and overnight frosts over the last couple of weeks but it’s amazing what a difference an inch or two of snow can make to the scenery - some of the photos look alpine. It’s just a shame the snow came at the end of this cold spell. 

Cold spells come in different varieties and this cold spell has been notable for the duration - the longest in 7 years -and probably the sunshine as well. Temperatures haven’t been remarkable with 1C being the lowest maximum at Glasgow airport though there have been some cold nights with -9C tonight the joint coldest since 2010. It was quite frustrating here for snow with it being dry most of the time and about half of the precipitation falling as  rain. The snowfall the other night was better than expected - 4.5cm the most since the second easterly of March 2018. It seems quite a lot of Scotland has seen some snow settling at times. 

A decent cold spell and a decent first half of winter - quite similar to 08/09 and 17/18 - and much better than most of the last 8 years of so. Hopefully the SSW delivers and we end up with a more significant cold spell in the coming weeks. In recent decades there have not been many prolonged or potent periods of winter weather in the second half of winter so I think we’re overdue some proper cold and snow in late January and into February.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

28 minutes ago, chemikal said:

Thanks! It was taken from my bedroom window. We can see quite a way north. Took this one of mountains beyond Ben Lomond (to the right of it) but not sure which one it is. Any ideas?

It could be Stob Binnein and Ben More.  Certainly one of the Munros near Crianlarich. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

A snow shower has just arrived from the north. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

A couple of pictures of the snow cover this morning. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

4.5cm of lying snow this morning which is the best since March 2018.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Snowing steadily here with most surfaces covered.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

I wish everyone the happiest possible new year - 2021 can only be better than 2020. 

A nice frosty start to the new year with clear skies. The seasonal weather is a welcome change from the perpetual overcast skies which December seems to offer most of the time.  

It looks like the cold weather will persist throughout much of the first half of January - the first time in a decade we’ve seen any period of seasonal weather at this time of year. The next 7 days will probably be mostly cold and dry though some surprises can’t be ruled out regarding snow - most likely in south eastern Scotland. Thereafter it appears we could see things start to shift with a variety of options on offer, mostly cold, including possibly a more potent northerly or easterly whilst we may see a breakdown of sorts around mid-month. The models recently have been all over the place so we won’t know for a while what will be in store in a few weeks time. Hopefully any mild spell will be short-lived or even the current cold spell continues and intensifies after mid-month. 

There’s huge potential for significant winter weather with a northern hemisphere pattern already conducive for cold weather and an SSW on top. As ever delivering significant cold and snow to these shores is always precarious though it’s hard not to be excited about what could be on offer in what appears to be an unprecedented set up. Given the potential, I’d be underwhelmed if we don’t achieve a sub 2C mean for January, a minimum of -15C or lower in the highlands or widespread inland snow cover of more than 2 inches. I don’t think it’s entirely unrealistic to achieve a sub 1C mean, lows of -18C in highlands and -10C in populated areas and widespread snow cover of 10cm + and locally 30cm+. No two notable cold spells are the same in-terms of duration and the depth of cold and snow - we’re certainly looking at a fairly notable cold spell in terms of duration but just how cold and snowy remains to be seen. Once the models are able to grasp the impact of the SSW hopefully we’re looking at a period of memorable winter weather. I certainly think we could see something of the magnitude of 2010 or 1979 - maybe a level above although I think matching 1947 or 1963 is too far fetched but not impossible. Equally we could experience a month more notable for persistent low temperatures rather than snow or we could end up with a frustrating two week cold spell like January 2013 which lacked significant cold and snow. It will be interest to see how the coming weeks pan out.

 

 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

Quite large snowflakes falling down - settling for now.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

Just a dusting here. Very impressive further east - anywhere with at least a couple of inches should have some snow cover for at least a couple of weeks. Given this is from a north easterly with uppers of around -4C I’d imagine a easterly with uppers around -7/-8C or lower would produce a lot of snow.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

The first snow shower had arrived

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

It looks like the next few days will be rather lively with the potential for some decent snowfalls in places. Anything can happen in this set up and as ever with snow events it’s a case of nowcasting and radar watching. I’m personally expecting up to an inch of wet snow though I’m hoping for more than a couple of inches - some places in the north and west will probably see several inches.

 

Any areas which see a decent covering could have snow on the ground for up to a week at least. In 2009/10 and Nov/Dec 2010 there were only a couple of snowfalls of more than a couple of inches and sometimes that’s all you need during a sustained cold spell. At face value the charts are not as impressive as 2010 in terms of depth and duration of cold but that doesn’t mean you can’t have a memorable cold spell. Given the set up and any snow cover there’s the potential for some very low temperatures, snowfalls can pop up at short notice and there’s always the chance that the cold increases in intensity and duration. Nevertheless the coming period is the probably the most promising for cold and snow in late Decenber/early January in over a decade and with the likelihood of a SSW January should have a lot on offer for cold and snow - I’d say there’s a very good chance January will be colder than average, possibly substantially so.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

A nice covering this morning - looking rather festive. It snowed heavily around around 2am and left a covering of around half a cm. A nice start to winter - better than the last couple of Decembers and hopefully the start of a decent winter for cold and snow.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

Followed by lightning and thunder!