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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale
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52 minutes ago, Norrance said:
The more Northerly element in the flow reduced the number and intensity of the showers a lot here but I think we still picked up an extra cm or two. Still a flurry this morning which until two days ago I would have git quite excited about.
The view from my front door this morning.
ps. Anyone in North Glasgow. Are the roads ok? My daughter finished a night shift at 8AM in Bearsden but doesnt appear to be home yet? @A Winter's Tale?The roads are fine now. Traffic was slower last night after a few showers but other than that it’s been okay.
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Just had a look at the GFS 18z and it shows a pretty impressive battleground snowfall for the weekend. It will probably change but it’d be great to have some proper frontal snowfall for once.
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A heavy shower has just cleared. The depth is currently 10.5-11cm. I don’t expect much more but I’m hoping to reach 5 or 6 inches but 10cm+ is still a pretty good outcome.
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I notice Altnaharra is already down to -11C. A decent chance for a low of -18 to -20C tonight.
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A beautiful wintry twilight with pale, cold looking skies, the temperature just below freezing, some light snow flurries and most surfaces covered with 3-4 inches of fine snow. Proper winter weather reminiscent of 2010 and much better than 1-2cm of slush. Hopefully we’ll see some very low temperatures in the next couple of nights. -10C in the central bell and -20C in the highlands would probably make this the best spell of cold and snow since 2010 and one of the best in recent decades.
Looking at the radar it seems the showers are tracking more east to west. I’m probably hoping for more showers around South Queensferry to make their way west.
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A very good event overall. Not half as amazing as the Beast from the East but still one of the top 5 or 6 largest snowfalls I’ve experienced in the past 15 years. Compared to 2018 the showers have been more infrequent and lighter overall with a mixture of fluffy snowflakes and smaller powdery snow. There’s some drifting but not on the scale as 2018. It seems we have clipped the edges of showers so I’m hoping to get a few direct hits of heavier showers. 2018 had a maximum of -3C which was the coldest in the records since 1973 for February at Glasgow Airport. Today the temperature didn’t get above 0C which is the coldest maximum temperature of the winter so far and one of coldest on the past 35+ years at the airport. The impressive streamer around Dundee is reminiscent of 2018 and worthy of a red warning. I wonder if we could see something fairly similar further south.
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9.5-10cm here this morning which is the second largest snowfall in over a decade.
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Biggest snowfall since the Beast from the East. Currently 6cm with hopefully more to come.
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The Cumbernauld to Falkirk area seems to be in the gap between the showers.
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Snow depth around 3.5-4cm
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I’ve measured 2cm so far. The surface I tend to use to measure snow is the top of a small wall. I wonder what surfaces everyone else uses.
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The cold spells of mid Dec 2009-mid Jan 2010 and late Nov-early Dec 2010 remain the benchmark for cold spells as far as I’m concerned. Snow depths more 10cm, lying snow and below average temps for over two weeks, ice days, -10C minima in the cities with -20c in the highlands. Since then there have been 10 snowfalls of 2 inches plus, 4 with depths 3 inches +. There have been only 4 occasions with 2cm+ on the ground for 5 days (Jan 2015 (2), Jan 2018, Feb/Mar 2018). Jan and Mar 2013 and Jan 2021 have been the only prolonged cold spells of note. January 2021 has been the only occasion temps have dropped below -10C at Glasgow whilst -15C has been pretty rare in Scotland over the last decade.
This winter has certainly been closest to 2010 (09/10 in particular) in terms of how cold it has been in general. Hopefully this cold spell will rank alongside those in 2010 which would put 2020/21 as a winter up there with category as 09/10 and 10/11.
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Another pretty heavy snow shower has just rolled through
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If the euro4 snow predictions turn out to be fairly close to the mark then I suspect we’ll see the amber warning cover a wider area and I’d be shocked if we don’t see a red warning in the areas projected to have 30cm+. The met office are currently going for 25cm at best in the amber area which could turn out to be a massive underestimate. I hope members in the amber warning area have their cameras and metre sticks at the ready (I don’t think a ruler will be big enough in some places!).
Euro4 suggests widespread 10-30cm in central Scotland. I think Bearsden in is in the 20-25cm zone which is close to the Beast from the East. I’d be more than happy to have half of what’s being modelled which would be an excellent event.
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No wonder the met office have issued an amber warning. I still think the snow depths they’re predicting are on the conservative side. Annoyingly I’m just outside the warning area but it’s a good sign that Glasgow isn’t too far away from the amber warning.
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3 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:
What about Edinburgh city
At the moment it seems the sweet spot is to the west of Edinburgh but I suspect tomorrow and perhaps into Wednesday Edinburgh should join in on the action. I think the Lothians as a whole should do pretty well. There’s still uncertainty about where exactly the streamers will set up - especially with regards to Edinburgh and Glasgow - but it seems very likely areas between Kirkcaldy and Cumbernauld could get absolutely hammered with snow.
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1 minute ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:
Amazing the difference over such a short distance. There’s been nothing here on the south side all morning. Been very Sunny actually, looks lovely out there.
Bearsden seems to be in the very southern edge of the showers. The last shower was heavy but the sun was still visible with blue sky overhead. I’m positive some of the showers will track to south to reach more of the Glasgow area.
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I wouldn’t be surprised to see an amber warning for many parts of central Scotland. Looking at some of the snow depth charts I think a red warning is a possibility - places such as Falkirk, Polmont, Bonnybridge, Denny, Grangenouth, Bo’ness, Linlithgow, Dunfermline, Rosyth, Cowdenbeath, Kilsyth and Cumbernauld could experience an event on the scale of the Beast from the East. Essentially anywhere south of south of Kincardine, north of Moodiesburn, east of Lennoxtown and west of South Queensferry is in the firing line.
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3 minutes ago, aggy said:
Is Cumbernauld in the 30 to 50 cm , asking for a friend
I think you’ve moved to Cumbernauld at the right time! I would be surprised if you saw less than 20cm and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more than 40cm between areas to the north east of Glasgow and Falkirk. Ultimately it depends on where the streamer sets up but it seems areas to the south west of the Forth will see frequent heavy snow showers.
Another shower has now arrived here.
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A brief heavy snow shower has left a covering this morning. It’s encouraging to see the snow showers making decent progress inland with some making it to Dumbarton and Loch Fyne. The track seems to be ENE so showers around Kirkcaldy are moving into the Falkirk area, then towards Kilsyth/Cumbernauld then Bearsden/Clydebank. I think southern and western parts of Fife and Perth and Kinross, the Falkirk area, northern and western parts of West Lothian and northernmost areas of North Lanarkshire could see depths in the range of 25-50cm. Many parts of central Scotland and the borders could see 10-30cm. Let’s hope the streamers play ball later!
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A heavier snow shower has left a slight dusting which bodes well for later. The charts are showing Monday night into Tuesday as the period most likely to produce for central areas.
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Snow flurry has arrived here aswell.
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Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards
in Regional
Posted
A beautiful winter’s day with sunshine and blue sky and 3-4 inches of snow on the ground. Glasgow airport had another maximum of 0C and it looks like a very cold night ahead. It would be great if somewhere in Scotland could drop to below -20C which has been very rare in the past 30 years. Looking ahead to the weekend snow potential the GFS 12z is a downgrade for Saturday but has another frontal snowfall next Monday.