A Winter's Tale

Depth currently 7.5cm - was 8cm - with temperature rising to freezing I suspect any further snowfall won’t add to the depth. Would have loved to reach 10cm but 3 inches is better than I expected - only Jan/Feb 2018 and Feb 2021 produced higher totals in the last 10 years.

Still snowing heavily - depth around 3 inches. Best snowfall since Feb 2021 and best December snowfall since 6 Dec 2010.

I was beginning to lose faith in the saying “get the cold in first and the snow will follow”. About 10 days into this cold spell finally there is a covering of snow. It would have been nice had the snow came earlier in the spell like 2009 and 2010 but I’m relieved this cold spell will not go without lying snow. And it has been a notable cold spell as far as temperatures are concerned. Glasgow airport recorded four days with a mean of -4C or lower (equalling Dec 1995) and even earlier tonight it briefly dropped to -9C after three days of -10C minima. I have no idea how much snow we’ll see but given how cold the ground is the snow is having no problem settling.

An exceptionally cold couple of days in Glasgow. Yesterday saw the lowest maximum and lowest December minimum at Glasgow airport since 2010 with a high of -4C after a low of -10C. It was even colder today with a high of -5C after -11C overnight. Very reminiscent of the coldest days in 2010 with the notable difference being the absence of snow cover which makes the current temperatures more remarkable. The lack of snow has been disappointing and has prevented this spell from being as memorable as others such as 2010 but the low temperatures have made this quite a notable period of winter weather. Perhaps we’ll see some more snow before the end of the current cold spell.

That shower has just passed here with the first flakes I’ve seen this winter. I think later today provides the best opportunity for lying snow in this part of Scotland. It’s unclear just how many showers will reach this far west and how intense the precipitation will be. Hopefully we’ll see a good stream of showers through the central belt though I’m concerned about whether we will see a rain/sleet/wet snow mix or proper snow. The main activity for the Glasgow area should be between 6pm and 6am - I have no idea if conditions will be favourable for precipitation to fall as snow by then.

Well what an interesting start to the winter! The potential in the charts at the moment is as high as I’ve seen on the 10+ years of following the models. There have been a number of occasions during the last decade when promising charts failed to materialise and after the failure of the cold spell last Christmas I will continue to remain cautious until we get to within 72-96hrs. At the moment I am keeping expectations low and I would be happy if we can have a seasonal December for once with some cold and snow instead of relentless cloud and rain from low pressure systems sweeping off the Atlantic. The last 10 years have been disappointing in terms cold and snow in December with only 2012, 2017 and 2020 resembling something seasonal. Thankfully December 2022 is shaping up to be a proper winter month and it looks likely we are about to enter the most notable period of winter weather in the first half of winter since 2010. It’s a question have notable thus spell could be in terms of severity and longevity. At the moment it looks like we’ll have a cold spell that lasts at least a week with decent opportunities for snow and low temperatures for a few days from the December 7th. Details concerning potential for snow and low temperatures will become clearer closer to the time. I would more than settle for a Dec 2000 style cold spell with a week of lying snow following a decent dumping accompanied with a few ice days and sub -10c lows. The charts offer a lot of promise for snow with the potential for organised features to pop up at short notice as well as convective snow showers developing over the mild SSTs, not to mention battleground snowfalls as well. If there’s snow cover with cold air aloft in a slack set up then there could be some very low temperatures. Regarding longevity it’s often the case once the cold arrives models underestimate the strength of blocking and cold air and the breakdown is pushed back. With the lack of polar vortex on the other side of the Atlantic and pooling of cold air on this side with a decent block in between I wouldn’t be surprised if this cold spells ends up being longer than 10 days. A severe spell of winter weather in terms of depth and longevity can’t be ruled out which would have negative implications concerning the current economic situation. Scotland’s northerly location should mean we stay in colder air longer or potentially experience battleground snowfall should the Atlantic attempt to make a comeback. It will be very interesting to see what the models will have in store over the coming days.

Pretty loud rumble where I am which came as but of a surprise.

I live within the black circle in the maps below.

Between 7.20pm and 7.30pm as a heavy shower moved NE the wind very suddenly escalated accompanied by heavy rain. It all lasted around 10-20 seconds or so. The wind also changed direction with the trees blowing east to west. I’ve experienced squalls before but this seemed a bit different. I wonder if it could have been a small tornado, or a microburst.

I wonder if my house has just been hit by a small tornado. It could have been a squall or a downburst but the wind very quickly increased then decreased and I think the wind might have been spinning. The cloud is moving east but the wind was blowing west.

I managed to catch a bolt of lightning to the east about an hour ago.

I saw a bolt of lightning in the sky above East Kilbride (I presume cloud to cloud lightning). Not too frequent but some bright flashes and some of the rumbles of thunder have been loud. I’ve not had a direct hit from a storm but I’ve enjoyed watching the lightning on and off for the past few hours from a distance (which I prefer). Not as remarkable as 2020 in terms of persistent, frequent flashes but it’s been an interesting night in terms of the duration of lightning activity in various places accompanied by bright flashes. It hasn’t been a common occurrence in recent years for a heatwave to end this way.

I think I heard the same strike.

Now there’s lightning to the south west with w bright flash and a rumble a minute ago.

I’ve got a good view of the lightning to the east. Some very bright flashes though not as frequent as the August 2020 storm. The area between Glasgow and Edinburgh appears to experience thunderstorms quite frequently. It’s been a lovely spell of weather - easily the best in August since 2003. Four days of temperature above 25C and a lot of sunshine There were very few clouds on Thursday followed by a fantastic clearness night - perfect conditions fur watching meteors if it wasn’t for the bright full moon. Yesterday morning had some low cloud cover abs a bit more haze the past few days but this has been the best spell of weather of the summer - better than the exceptional two day wonder in July. The second half of summer has actually been quite decent for once after a pretty awful first half. The models don’t look too great for Scotland going into the second half of August but this time of year it always feels like summer is on the way out. Perhaps we’ll get some more decent late summer weather before the month is out or even in September. Regardless of what’s to come this August will stand out to previous years thanks to the weather of the past week.