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A Winter's Tale

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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale

    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I saw a bolt of lightning in the sky above East Kilbride (I presume cloud to cloud lightning). Not too frequent but some bright flashes and some of the rumbles of thunder have been loud. I’ve not had a direct hit from a storm but I’ve enjoyed watching the lightning on and off for the past few hours from a distance (which I prefer). Not as remarkable as 2020 in terms of persistent, frequent flashes but it’s been an interesting night in terms of the duration of lightning activity in various places accompanied by bright flashes. It hasn’t been a common occurrence in recent years for a heatwave to end this way. 

    • Like 2

    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

    Having said that we’ve just had a lightning strike within about half a mile of here. Pretty loud, shook the building.

     

    1 minute ago, Sunshineandshowers84 said:

    Yes couldn’t be far from me either flash then within 5 or so seconds gun shot thunder.

    I think I heard the same strike. 

    • Like 2

    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I’ve got a good view of the lightning to the east. Some very bright flashes though not as frequent as the August 2020 storm. The area between Glasgow and Edinburgh appears to experience thunderstorms quite frequently. 

    It’s been a lovely spell of weather - easily the best in August since 2003. Four days of temperature above 25C and a lot of sunshine There were very few clouds on Thursday followed by a fantastic clearness night - perfect conditions fur watching meteors if it wasn’t for the bright full moon. Yesterday morning had some low cloud cover abs a bit more haze the past few days but this has been the best spell of weather of the summer - better than the exceptional two day wonder in July.

    The second half of summer has actually been quite decent for once after a pretty awful first half. The models don’t look too great for Scotland going into the second half of August but this time of year it always feels like summer is on the way out. Perhaps we’ll get some more decent late summer weather before the month is out or even in September. Regardless of what’s to come this August will stand out to previous years thanks to the weather of the past week. 

    • Like 4

    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by A Winter's Tale

    I’m glad Glasgow airport managed to reach a rare 30C (on the same day as Edinburgh airport). Not record breaking big a notable temperature in an exceptional period weather. With cloud cover increasing it’s starting to drop and I thought I heard some thunder. The radar is looking lively to the south west so maybe we will have a thundery breakdown. 

    • Like 2

    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Warmest day of the year at Glasgow Airport at 28C. Not exceptional but we rarely achieve 29C+. Tomorrow could be hotter in the Glasgow area but the peak will come earlier in the afternoon with cooler air arriving from the west. 30C+ is a possibility (which would be exceptional) and had the arrival of cooler air been delayed slightly then 32C+ would have been more of a possibility. Further east it’s likely we’ll see a new record - possibly exceeding the current record by 2C+. Tomorrow truly has the potential to be absolutely astonishing. In the 20th century, 35C only occurred in 10 years in the UK and 37C just once. 

    • Like 5

    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    UKMO Tuesday afternoon 

    image.thumb.gif.aa7b5e80dda44c83da77a4582ef67569.gif

    GEM Tuesday evening 

    image.thumb.png.b7da00445bbe92eae289f074136a1d68.png

    GFS Tuesday morning 

    image.thumb.png.316fdd68a458e21365e73d9155d4f96e.png

    The GFS has the warmest air arriving Monday night before clearing away Tuesday afternoon. It’s not the optimal set up for high temperatures but the GFS still produces two days of widespread temps of 25-29 with 30+ in one or two areas. The UKMO and GEM look exceptional and would likely produce widespread temperature of 29-32 with some places possibly experiencing record breaking highs of 33-35. We’re still a few days away from having a better idea of just how hot the start of next week could be but I’m very confident much of Scotland will have a couple of very warm/hot days. 

    You can post your predictions of Scotland’s highest temperatures next week in this thread: 

     

    Personally I think somewhere in southern Scotland will reach somewhere between 31 and 32. If parts of Scotland are under 20C+ uppers during the daytime with clear skies and potential foehn effect/urban heating then we could see absolutely exceptional temperatures. I would love to see a new Scottish record (threaten to reach the mid 30s) as well as Glasgow record a rare 30c but I must admit I’m not too sure I want to experience temperatures of 32C+. At least we are not going to experience the 35-40 degree heat forecast for large swathes of England (including northern areas). 

    • Like 5

    Predict Scotland’s maximum temperature: 17-20 July

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It’s looking increasingly likely Scotland will see its highest temperatures of the summer so far between the 17th and 20th July. It’s possible we could see temperatures challenge the July record high of 32.8 or the all time record of 32.9. It looks like much of southern Scotland at least will experience uppers of 15c+ and perhaps 20c+ for a time. There’s still uncertainty concerning the extent, duration, timing and intensity of the airmass but if the GFS 0z is on to something we could see widespread temperatures in the high twenties next Monday and Tuesday with some places creeping into the low thirties. 

    With the UK record likely to be challenged and possibly Ireland’s as well, use this thread to guess the maximum temperature for Scotland between Sunday 17th and Wednesday 20th July - if you wish you can guess the location and the date. 

    uk_climate_synoptic_and_climate_stations

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Synoptic and climate stations

    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
    The map shows the current network of automatic (synoptic) and manual (climate) stations covering the UK.

     

    • Thanks 2

    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by A Winter's Tale

    GFS 0z for next Tuesday is the hottest forecast for Scotland I’ve ever seen. 31C in Grampian, 32C in the Central Belt and 33-34C in the south east. I doubt record breaking temperatures will materialise but it’s looking increasingly likely that Sunday-Wednesday will be the warmest spell of the summer so far. 

    image.thumb.png.cc8cccf09252816269459a8e9219577b.png

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