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A Winter's Tale

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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale


  1. 26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    6 UK teams enter the group stages for the 1st time ever

    Draw tomorrow 16:30

    The UCL group stage in 2007 had 6 British sides: Arsenal, Celtic, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Rangers.


  2. 3 hours ago, frogesque said:

    Back to weather! Just looked out and there's a respectable display of noctilucent clouds developing. Still a bit light yet but should show up nicely after midnight.

    Just had my first sighting of noctilucent clouds and it's an absolutely mesmerising spectacle just like the northern lights. I thought it was dawn until noticing the waves and textures. A pretty captivating and unique experience and phenomenon for sure. 


  3. On 22 February 2017 at 10:40, CatchMyDrift said:

    I'm doing it all the "wrong" way this time as not jinxing it doesn't work. I'm telling everyone it's gonna snow a lot tomorrow, I've got my gloves, hat, shovel, torch, etc on standby. We've stocked up on milk, bread and food this morning. I've even got new tires on the car this morning to give me a better chance in the drifts over the next couple of days. The only thing I haven't done is to get the sledge out and that's simply cos I don't own a sledge. The snow will fall, a foot deep for me, a foot and a half for some further west. Chaos on the roads...stay safe!!! 

     

    On 22 February 2017 at 11:13, CatchMyDrift said:

    I'm going to open a ski centre tomorrow up the hill behind Duns! I'm so confident of snow tomorrow I've even got my old camera charged up and I'm going to empty the memory card later so I can take it out in the depth of the blizzard at 4am for some blizzardcam footage.

    Any new members are going to think "this Catch guy is an arrogant muppet"....

     

    23 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    Snow preparations part two!! MrsCatch has cleaned all windows inside and out so we can watch the prawn cracker flakes billowing down. I've stocked up on some extra wood for the fire for when the electric goes off and the heating stops working and I've set some alarms for the morning. I've also set up an automatic snow measuring device for my garden. The first tape is set at 15cm and indicates what the snow depth will be at daybreak tomorrow. The second mark is at 30cm and indicates the snow depth once the snow stops falling. I can't think of anything else to do but wait...

     

    IMG_1953.thumb.JPG.4549bd5835437f460095aa0b9a77cdc1.JPGIMG_1954.thumb.JPG.f3da69313b806f2ab31c85c6643e25ae.JPGIMG_1955.thumb.PNG.481d59b26b891680e87d72a88e4845e8.PNG

    If anyone can think of something I've forgotten please let me know!! :good: 

     

    23 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    Don't be daft, when do these things ever go wrong? 

     

    23 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    I'll let you measure in centimetres and I'll measure in feet and I'll win 1-0.1 :rofl: 

     

    5 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    We seem to be coming out of the warm sector now, snowing and settling above 200m. Sleeting heavily here now but not going to settle even if it does snow due to the floods :rofl: 

    1st pic is on Harden's Hill between Duns and Longformacus and second one is on the A6105 between Greenlaw and Duns.

    IMG_1963.thumb.JPG.a8d9475520f116658bb61270a5311392.JPGIMG_1964.thumb.JPG.193c39ce9c955546c2a47f531b67185e.JPG

     Well that went well:rofl:


  4. It's snowing quite nicely at the moment but despite a decent start we couldn't improve on the early covering with the precipitation being too wet until now. There's a covering of slushy snow on the grass and roofs which is better than nothing but it's very underwhelming we couldn't sustain the snow during the hours expected to be best. We have proper snow just now but it's too little too late and it's  disappointing and frustrating to end up with damp surfaces and a slushy covering after the promising start and what could have been if it had kept snowing. It's a familiar outcome, and typical of this winter. It appears the front ended up being further north than expected which changed everything and it seems to have been underwhelming in many parts including areas in the amber zone and with altitude which is a bit surprising. It goes to show how difficult it is to forecast these events even up to the last minute and subsequently it's often difficult to achieve proper, substantial snow when it falls in these islands. 


  5. It seems that Storm Doris will conjure up some weather of interest. It's been a dull and disappointing winter with not a lot happening, especially as far as typical winter weather goes. 

    We've had two occasions of lying snow, one in early November and one last month bringing 1cm. There have been a couple of winters poorer than this but it's been pretty disappointing after the promise in November - which had the best of the cold. In the absence of cold and snow, at least there's been an absence of the more unpleasant varieties of winter weather. 

    Anyway, tonight is set up to be pretty interesting. This sort of event involves fine margins between nothing and a pasting. I'm sure some will be very successful,  the Borders in particular and I'm looking forward to your reports and pics. 

    I'm currently in Bearsden, which is just outside the Amber zone and given the winter so far, I'm cautious of my prospects. I'm hopeful of seeing snow or possibly some accumulations, but depending on whether factors are on my side then I could be rewarded with a snowfall to remember the winter for. I'm under 150m, and might be on the wrong side of the heaviest precipitation, but this set up is a bit of a lottery so you can never be sure what to expect which makes things pretty exciting. I'd settle for an inch, but whether I see something better or nothing at all remains to be seen. 

     

    Good luck everyone.


  6. A few snow/sleet showers have been rolling in from the NW since the afternoon. Too wet to settle but nice to see the first snow of 2017. I can't say I'm overly optimistic about tomorrow with forecasts, charts and warnings fluctuating. This isn't any more than a typical spell of winter weather but it's much better than what we've had since the end of November. As always in set ups like this, the showers are hit or miss and so too are the rewards. NWLys can either be largely sunny and breezy with a few wet snow showers or frequent snow showers merging into longer spells of frequent snow and decent accumulations. My expectations are low for tomorrow but set-ups like this can always conjure up a surprise and deliver the best snowfalls in this part of the nation. The latest euro4 update looks pretty decent for quite a lot of Scotland, especially further north and west, so hopefully tomorrow will be a marked improvement on the winter so far and deliver something to cheer about to us all. It seems to be a trend in recent winters for cold and snow begin just after a third of the way through January. It's going to take a lot to make up for the disappointing first half of the winter, but tomorrow is chance to at least change fortunes and hopefully things will be looking up going into the second half of winter. 

    The models have had a horrid time this winter. The amount of charts showing potential of easterlies and northern blocking for only one model (particularly the UKMO and ECM) to be showing a different outcome and to eventually be proven correct. December was pretty sore given the promise of cold and snow which vanished very abruptly and the past week had been pretty lively regarding what follows the blast of winter weather this week. For a long time the GFS has been showing a flatter outcome, whilst the UKMO and especially the ECM (which has delivered a couple of stunning runs) have been more amplified and hinting at a potential for an easterly  - primarily for southern and eastern parts. The last 24hrs have been tops turvy, with the overnight runs, especially UKMO, casting doom over the illusive easterly. This evening thankfully (for the sake of the MT) has seen an improvement and kept alive the chances of an easterly via a Scandi/Scotland high though what's caught my eye is the trend for the core of the PV to transfer east to Siberia, and a couple of runs indicating the possibility of height rises to the NW.

     


  7. I have to say I was absolutely astonished at what the GFS 6Z showed this morning. Easily the best run I've seen for cold and snow. Before the run came out, I was confident of a better January for cold and snow with a northerly to start the New year and possible reloads although opportunities of snow looking intermittent with established blocking looking unlikely with areas of high pressure closer to the Uk. 

    The incredible run this morning as you'd expect was an outlier but I think most of us would take an outcome which was half as good as the GFS 6z op. It will be interesting to see what the models churn out this evening though a repeat of earlier is unlikely, especially given ten inconsistency recently beyond 6/7 days. At least things are looking up in the New Year (although we couldn't have been much worse in December) with the promise of at least some more seasonal weather and hopefully we'll be rewarded with at least a decent spell of snow or cold.


  8. Briefly snowing here for the first time in over a month. I was beginning to wonder if December was going to be snowless. November, unusually was more like a winter month in terms of the weather we had with a little snow, and some excellent and very cold settled spell in what has been up until now a very anti cyclonic period for a few months now. Model watching since the end of October was more like mid winter with the early promising signs for winter. Alas, the long range forecasts and background signals failed to come to fruition and we've had essentially the very opposite of a front-loaded winter which just goes to show the perils of long range forecasting, especially for this part of the world. 

    So after the early optimism, it is particularly frustrating for December to turn out the way it has, especially the first two thirds. Other than an ice day, the odd frost or less mild day/night there has been very little to resemble a December or a winter month, in fact more like October/November. The even more frustrating thing is last December was pretty much the same (if not a little better). The last time December had been remotely seasonal was 2014. 2013 was more like this and last year, and 2011 and 2012 had spells of cold and mild, and some lying snow which I haven't seen here in December since. 

    It is disappointing to frequently see much of December being dominated by relentlessly mild weather. It's very normal to have periods of mild weather at this time of year, but 3 of the last 4 years have seen the first two thirds offer very little in conditions which resemble the time of year. Despite my preference for cold and snow I don't mind some mild winter weather as it's part of our climate and can have some benefits and uses but the persistence of the mild weather in recent Decembers have eaten up much of the month with very little winter weather.

    At least this year, it's been pretty settled for a change which has prevented storms or flooding and has made some things easier without being outside in 6C in driving cold rain and sleet. But much of the time it has barely felt or looked like December with the absence of chilly, clear evening. And it's been pretty dull, and despite how the settled autumn has been quite refreshing for a change, after a while I've began to miss the the mobility of the Atlantic weather, which we so often complain about, but nevertheless is common and fundamental aspect of our climate which has been largely absent recently. 

    As is often the case, we see a change in the weather in the final third of December which sees the year out and introduces the next. In 2015 and 2013, we went from very mild weather to less mild weather and the same could happen this year, accompanied with the return of Atlantic in time for Christmas, bringing the risk if storms which will hopefully be downgraded. We expected more for December than brief shots of polar maritime air, but compared with what we've had, it's better for introducing some normal winter weather and chances of a little snow. We could get an official white Christmas for the first time in 6 years. Although I'd prefer the unofficial white Christmas of lying snow under clear blue sky, rather than some wet snow showers in gale force winds but I suppose it's better than nothing. I still think the rest of winter is all to play for and there are some signs that perhaps January might offer something different. I'm not optimistic of a rewarding new year for cold and snow, but I'm fairly confident that it can't get much worse than what we've endured so far,and there's still plenty of time to get something out of the winter.

     

     

     


  9. A fine September evening here after some recent damp and gloomy conditions. It's been a pretty benign but warm start to September with a few days reaching the 20s, and no minimum has gone below double digits. But despite the warmth, the change in daylight makes it apparent we're in autumn with some residual warmth from summer lingering on but further south it must have felt like mid summer with the sort of temperatures and thunderstorms they've experienced. 


  10. On 3 August 2016 at 08:38, DR(S)NO said:

    Woke up around 2 ish to a crazy storm. Lasted about 30 mins... Lots of lightning, really loud thunder and some of the most torrential rain I've seen in years...couple with gusty winds...I say seen,but really heard, as the power was cut and the area  was in black. Which made the storm even more impressive! Seemed to be an impressive amount of strikes in our area and to the west of me ... Anyone else experience this?

    The storm largely missed here and seemed t be confined to the area including and north of the Clyde Estuary. There was very little thunder and briefly heavy rain but there were plenty of flashes of lightning to the west and north. 


  11. 25 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    How old are you AWT? (Roughly) You probs aren't far off with saying it's the warmest you've experienced in the west of Scotland if you're in your early twenties (I'm guessing now :) ). 

    Yeah, it's among the warmest I've experienced here, I've most likely have experienced hotter temperatures when in Spain or even southern England.

    Funnily enough, despite a high of 28C and very warm temperatures lasting into the night, I've experienced less enjoyable warmth on many occasions with lower temperatures than usual. It didn't seem to be too humid, or a particulary strong sun and there was enough of a breeze around. Ironically, it's feels warmer inside now than earlier with today's heat being released from the ground. 

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