A Winter's Tale
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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale
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Lovely clear, starry winters night. Hopefully some snow will fall from some of the showers for a white Xmas. Merry Christmas everyone.
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A better day with some brightness and clear sky to speak of. Looking at the models, a cold Xmas is almost upon us and shortly after that low pressure in the North Sea could deliver cold and brisk northerly wind. Into the New Year and it seems high pressure will try to battle its way NE as the polar vortex returns to Greenland/Canada. It will be very difficult to achieve an easterly in this set up so we'll probably end up with high pressure close by to the South.
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We are off to Skye on Monday. Cottage booked for a week over Christmas away from the rellies, inlaws and outlaws. Bit of snow on the Cuillins would be nice but not so much we can't get there - don't mind getting snowed in once we are there though :smiliz64:
How's the forecast looking looking - too stressful to search through model threads?
For the big day it should be cold bad settled, maybe the odd snow flurry. After that details will change but the GFS 12z looks pretty interesting in the period between Boxing Day and New Year's. Potentially quite a snowy scenario across Scotland but moreso further east.
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A cold Christmas is looking quite likely but it probably won't be a white one. After that the outlook is still uncertain with large swings in the model outputs over the last 72hrs. Details will change so it is hard to judge what to expect as we end the year but some sort cold spell with a northerly looks likely, albeit currently it seems more like a toppler rather something more prolonged (perhaps getting more pronounced riding with a west based -NAO would have been better slightly further down the line rather than having high pressure sinking further east).
It does seem like synoptic patterns have been and are struggling for supremacy across the NH with a weak, but stubborn PV, resulting in us getting average temperatures with nothing pronounced interns of mild/cold, and changeable conditions giving us a fair amount of wind and rain and some muted chilly/cold spells which have delivered some snowfalls to speak of but haven't been potent enough to be remembered for.
I suspect January, to begin with, could be the same but at some stage I'm just hoping for something more quiet, settled and crisp and a more potent polar maritime incursion or northerly toppler to deliver something meaningful interms of snow for all if us. The troposphere could still help us out in January interms of blocking, but I suppose we have to be patient as it looks like a SSW won't happen until the end of a January. We can still very much get snow and cold without a SSW and I sometimes think it's best not to be overly reliant on the stratosphere - an SSW in itself doesn't guarantee blocking patterns falling into place on this side of the NH and when they do, sometimes it's more to benefit of those further south and East, ironically sometimes a strong jet stream, and powerful PV over Greenland can deliver a fair amount of wintry weather to Scotland.
If the SSW does take place, then I suppose we are overdue a really memorable February for cold and snow. The issue I have is the stronger sunlight, longer daylight, colder SSTs and perhaps Scandinavian blocking delivering more elsewhere in Britain. But hopefully in the end it will all be worth it.
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Not many better winter charts in the archive than this:
or this:
Some proper snow for Christmas night via a cold front and some proper cold for Boxing Day:
An absolutely classic setup for this part of the world, and we know that once heights are established over Greenland it can be difficult to shift them. Let's hope the ECM follows suit...
The potential is really exciting, synoptically the best since March 2013 but in terms of cold and snow potential this could the best in 4 years with some similarities to the building blocks of the major cold spells of 09/10 and 10/11.
I can't say I understand a lot of meteorological science but during previous weeks and months there have been various factors (such as WAA into northern latitudes, SAI, disrupted PV in autumn) which I presume would subsequently have feedback effects on/throughout the atmosphere/troposphere and perhaps what we're seeing just now could be a result of events during recent weeks. It will be interesting to see where this leads us to, as through past experience, when blocking and WAA extends northwards into Greenland, it is a pattern that can last for quite some time. There has been great consistency and momentum during the past 48hrs and I'm hoping this continues and develops into something pretty special. Many of the great winters get underway around the festive period, so there is the potential we could see a somewhat premature notable cold spell before a possible SSW in the New Year.
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Very encouraging signs and trends occurring in the models regarding the festive period. It's still too early to be confident or get our hopes up as details will most certainly change but it looks like we could see the ideal switch to proper winter weather - after a season which hasn't been all that inspiring on snow front - just in time for the festive period between Christmas and New Year. Even without spectacular deep, prolonged cold weather, to me this is an example of classic, traditional, desirable or perfect Christmas weather to have proper winter conditions arriving in time and exclusive for the festive period. But it is still too early to get hung up on detail and it could turn out to be a transitional messy period, but looking at the models I see shades of 2000. It does seem the cold is going to dominate over the mild weather I feared which makes for a change from recent years where mild weather persisted through the latter part of December and into the New Year. The models will make fascinating viewing to see how the details unfold, but also there is still a possibility a pretty notable or prolonged cold spell could evolve Into the New Year. When you come to think of it, the Christmas period seems to always have a marked change in the weather.
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https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/347/entry-4848-awts-winter-forecast-20142015/Looking at the models, nothing to spectacular is on the horizon but there should be a few opportunities for snow in the foreseeable future but nevertheless it looks like a pretty seasonal start to the month. I suspect this month will come in just either side of average temperature wise with no real prevailing weather pattern for the first half of the month with our weather strongly influence mid-latitude heights. I think eventually, later this month we'll see more pronounced periods of mild/wet/windy and cold/frosty/snowy as pressure patterns alternate so before Christmas we could see a sudden switch to mild muck as we did in 2011 and 2012 or a change to a colder pattern as we did in late December 2000, all depending on where areas of high pressure end up so the second half of the month is up in the air. At the moment, I think in a couple of weeks time we'll end up with more active Atlantic driven conditions, but by the very end of the month the jet may take a dive South as a precursor to a more significant period of winter weather occurring sometime after the new year.
So we're halfway through the first month of the winter. My assessment is in general it hasn been particularly memorable or spectacular (other than the excitement of the 'weather bomb') but nor has it been a complete right off. It's been a very traditional, seasonal beginning to winter with short mild blips, some cooler intervals and a mix of Atlantic fronts and wintry showers during two weeks of changeable weather which is set to continue.
This month has really turned out as expected following an autumn which didn't really feel like a proper transition from summer into winter before the switch to seasonal conditions this month, and the negative OPI value seemed to correlate with pretty average or mike Decembers followed by colder conditions prevailing after the New Year. My thoughts and forecast at the start of the month seem a fair summary of the month so far and what could be around the corner.
We seem to be at a pivotal moment in getting a clearer picture/determining the nature of the weather patterns in the latter half if the month. A change looks upon us, whether it's a subtle change in emphasis of pressure patterns/temperature or a more significant and abrupt pattern change and it's very normal to experience such shifts/switches during this time if year. At the start of the month, I felt (or feared) that high pressure becoming more prominent to our South may see a more pronounced period of milder weather before Christmas (which we have seen many times before such as 2011 and 2012) but suspected the wider picture may be mobile and progressive enough to see a sudden colder end to the year and precursor to the sort of weather we may see in the new year - (December 2000 offered a memorable cold and snowy spell between Christmas and New Year out of nowhere and a similar negative OPI year in 2009 also had a stunning shift to cold and snow following an unremarkable autumn and first half of a December for wintry prospects).
The models make particularly interesting viewing with The conditions for Christmas Day being on a knife edge. It looks like before Christmas we could experience mild, Atlantic driven conditions influenced by high pressure to the South and around Christmas looks like a potential switch to colder weather. It looks like we'll see a mild/cold period of some sorts during the final weeks of the year but nature of the weather conditions we might experience will only begin to unfold during this week. If it does turn colder, I don't expect anything on the scale of 2009 just yet but I'm hoping for something like a repeat of 2000, but even if it remains mild or continues to be changeable then there's still a chance of having a brief cold or wintry incursion in time for Christmas as we saw in 2004.
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Another rumble of thunder after another shower which left a covering of hail stones but there seemed to be some snow coming down.
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A pretty lively winters day with some impressive hail at half five this morning and thunder and lightning at times in the morning. A brisk wind driving wintry showers with brief sunny intervals. It will be interesting to see what happens after dark - hopefully more frequent and heavy snow showers as temperatures start to drop.
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It is snowing here for the first time this season.
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A pretty horrific winter's day but thankfully things are going to turn seasonal again and I'm feeling a little more optimistic about seeing some snow over the next few days and I think there is the potential for a pleasant surprise. Looking ahead, in the distant future we could end up with something more favourable for blocking to occur by the very end of the month. In over a weeks time however there is a signal for a milder period with Atlantic air and south westerlies rolling on top of high pressure to the South, a similar scenario to my winter forecast.
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https://twitter.com/WSI_EuroEnergy/status/541951734864945152
this can't be right... or can it!
I'm not sure what is more improbable: 5cm of snow in the Atlantic or 10cm in Glasgow...
No snow to report from yesterday and today has been a fine sunny and clear winter's day. Still a few more shots at getting the first snowfall of the season but it's still too marginal for my liking but somewhere, with good elevation, is likely to see a good dumping of snow at some point in the next 10 days. Thank goodness it isn't looking as mild or stormy as this time last year, a much more seasonal start to this winter.
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I really have no idea what to expect tomorrow. I suspect that being not too far away from the west Coast some milder air off the sea could be mixed in so the precipitation should switch between sleet, rain and snow. I could really do with being a good 50m or so higher. Another factor in these set ups is how showers/features in a westerly/north westerly flow interacts with the topography so through past experience, there is a risk that there could be an unfavourable track of showers moving through or bypassing the central belt. Looking at the charts it is also difficult to judge how much shower activity there will be and the key times for snow chances regarding favourable uppers/dew points and when convection will be at its highest. I don't have high expectations for settling snow - although in theory a straight westerly flow with sub -5c uppers is a pretty favourable set up - but nevertheless it will be interesting to see what comes our way tomorrow and it looks like there's going to be at least a few more opportunities for potential wintry weather over the next couple of weeks.
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A low of -4C at Glasgow airport which is the coldest temperature since March and already this month we've had two nights with lower temperatures than anything recorded during last winter which goes to show for how dismal a winter it was. I'm not overly optimistic about my snow chances tomorrow as it does look too marginal for my liking and where the heaviest/most persistent areas of precipitation end up is a bit if a lottery but it is nice to have the first shot at some wintry potential this season and I'm sure some places will do very well tomorrow.
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DECEMBER... A close to or slightly below average month with an unsettled and changeable first half with active weather fronts sweeping the country and areas of low pressure often close by to the north, delivering frequent windy and blusetry conditions, occasionally turbulent and it will be predominately below average in the north with intermittent wintry precipitation, slightly milder and calmer further south with some settled intervals from the SW introducing a few frosty nights. It should remain unsettled into the first part of the second half of the month, with a change to a more pronounced spell of milder weather before becoming colder again with an anticyclonic period preceeding a cold and wintry spell to end the month with an Arctic sourced airmass. Temperatures 0.25C above to 0.75C below average, most likely to below average further north. CET 5.2C. Rainfall 90-100% of the average in the south, 95-110% of the average further north and west. Precipitation coming in the form of rain from active weather fronts and proceeding some blustery and unstable airflows with some intervals of wintry precipitation in the north west and potentially significant totals of snow on the Scottish high ground. Sunshine 5% on either side of the average.
JANUARY... Colder or significantly colder than average with a return to unsettled and potentially stormy weather for a time after New Year with temperatures generally around or just above average prior to colder, anticyclonic conditions before mid month, heralding a risk of harsh frost and dense patches of fog. It should turn significantly colder for the latter half of the month, with increasing chances of snow in most places but especially in eastern and southern areas with the possibility of some significant snowfalls. Generally drier and more settled further north. At times turning less cold in the very SW but generally very cold, at times intensely cold elsewhere, with widespread and at times severe frosts. Temperatures 2.0C to 0.5 below average. CET 2.2C. Rainfall 90-110% of the average in the east and 75-85% further north and west. Sunshine 5-10% above average in the north and west, 5% below average in the east.
FEBRUARY... Colder than average, especially in the first half of the month with prolonged and at times intense cold pesisting into the new month. It may become more anticyclonic at times with high pressure close to the north and snow showers becoming lighter and infrequent. However, there may be a few attempts of the Atlantic making enrodes, resulting in a few oppurtunities for battleground snowfall. Eventually, the atlantic should win resulting in milder and changeable conditions from the west, perhaps the risk of a wind event or two before becoming much milder to end the month. CET 2.9C. Rainfall 65-85% of the average in the south, 75-85% further north. Sunshine 5-10% above average.-
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Absolutely beautiful winters day and it's great to see those magical wintry afternoon sunsets/dusk. Looking at the models, nothing to spectacular is on the horizon but there should be a few opportunities for snow in the foreseeable future but nevertheless it looks like a pretty seasonal start to the month. I suspect this month will come in just either side of average temperature wise with no real prevailing weather pattern for the first half of the month with our weather strongly influence mid-latitude heights. I think eventually, later this month we'll see more pronounced periods of mild/wet/windy and cold/frosty/snowy as pressure patterns alternate so before Christmas we could see a sudden switch to mild muck as we did in 2011 and 2012 or a change to a colder pattern as we did in late December 2000, all depending on where areas of high pressure end up so the second half of the month is up in the air. At the moment, I think in a couple of weeks time we'll end up with more active Atlantic driven conditions, but by the very end of the month the jet may take a dive South as a precursor to a more significant period of winter weather occurring sometime after the new year.
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Happy St Andrews Day! We've finally reached the end of autumn which has seen a fair bit of traditional cloud and rain although over the past few months it has seemed a little too persistently mild to truly notice the transition from summer to winter. Hopefully this winter won't be a repeat of last years horror show.
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Perfect night fir fireworks. Not a breath of wind, a cloudless evening with a bright moon and very cold with the temperature hovering around freezing whilst smoke shrouds the streets.
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Beautiful clear and sunny November's day and things starting to look a lot more wintry with a lower and weaker sun in the southern sky. Should be a chilly night for Bonfire's night for something like the third or fourth year in a row.
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6.9c please
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Exceptionally mild and humid for the time of year. Currently 18c after an overnight low of 15c.
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I was more than pleased to see the clear, cirrostratus back end of the system which has brought never ending unpleasant autumn weather. It was followed by much better clearer, cooler and brighter conditions and there was a nice sunset/dusk with shades/tones and light leaning towards winter-looking with weaker and lower sunlight.
The Scottish mean temperature for November is 4.3c and I predict a value of 5.1C.
The past couple of Novembers have been quite chilly - with chilly, blustery autumn conditions in the first week followed by drier and more traditional winter cold snaps later in the month. Despite it being chilly tonight it does not feel like a period of chilly autumn weather is upon us after what has so far been a mild winter but I'm sure as November goes on it will gradually continue to cool down with some frosts and traditional late autumn weather and hopefully the first wintry weather of the season. I suspect the wet and changeable Atlantic and traditional autumn weather will continue into the first part of the month and will probably persist throughout November but I'm hopeful we will have a shot at a northerly sometime around or after mid month.
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A showery day after two overcast and wet days. Looking forward to winter and hopefully we won't get a repeat of that horror show we had to endure last year lol. With November approaching, I'm thinking of a prediction game for guessing the mean temperature for Scotland in each of the months from November-March.
I see that the October Pattern Index has been of interest this year. With fluctuations from run to run, the value has comfortably been negative throughout the month and is now sub -2. The lower the value, the better the chance of colder weather in winter it seems. With data going back to the 1970s, I've had a look at winters following each of the negative OPIs since 1976, with the mean Scottish winter temperature and the mean temperatures for December, January, February. There does seem to be a strong correlation in cold winters/month(s) preceding a particularly negative OPI. Interestingly the Decembers of 2010, 1995 and 1981 occurred after an OPI lower than -1. Every winter following an OPI of -1 or lower, has had cold winter months in some shape or form.
2009 -3.15, 0.39, 0.5, 0.3, 0.4
1985 -1.9 1.28, 3.5, 1.3, -1.2
1978 -1.8 0.45, 2.4, -1.0, -0.1
1984 -1.8 2.12, 4.2, 0.2, 2.0
1976 -1.75 1.02, 0.4, 1.0, 1.7
2012 -1.65 2.49 2.4. 2.9, 2.2
1986 -1.3 2.00 3.2, 0.6, 2.2
1982 -1.1 2.49 2.4, 4.0, 0,9
1977 -0.9 1.77 4.1, 1.1, 0.0
2002 -0.9 2.96, 3.5, 2.7, 2.7
2010 -0.85 1.28 -1.8, 2.1, 3.7
2000 -0.75 2.16 3.2, 1.3, 1.9
1996 -0.75 2.48 1.8, 2.2, 3.6
1997 -0.75 4.51, 4.2, 3.2, 6.3
2005 -0.7 3.35 3.7, 3.3, 3.0
2003 -0.7 3.20, 3.2, 3.3, 3.1
1995 -0.65 1.76, 0.5, 3.5, 1.3
1979 -0.5 2.47, 2.9, 1.3, 3.3
1987 -0.45 3.14, 3.9, 2.6, 2.9
1981 -0.4 1.36, -0.7, 1.4, 3.6
1983 -0.3 2.53, 4.5, 0.2, 2.9
1999 -0.2 3.03, 1.9, 3.8, 3.5
1993 -0.15 1.77 1.7, 2.4, 1.2
1980 -0.05 2.97, 3.9, 2.8, 2.2
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Scotland - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
A much better Xmas Day for weather than recent years with nice seasonal conditions and some clear and sunny spells but it wasn't completely cloudless. Even better Christmas conditions tonight with a proper frost and temperatures below freezing - a very good alternative to snow.