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A Winter's Tale

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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale

  1. Thoroughly unpleasant conditions of heavy cold rain driven by strong winds travelling to and from the concert. I'm delighted at the charts and Synoptics on show on the models and the potential for cold and snow is almost as epic and stunning as the Queen concert.

    Now clear with a starry sky all the snow melted except for a pile at the side of the driveway. It was nice while the covering of snow lasted, a mere cm but satisfying enough but hopefully more days with lying snow and deeper accumulations will be in store for us during this upcoming period of cold and wintry weather. Potentially this could be the most significant period of winter weather since December 2010 but we shouldn't get too carried away just yet although I feel the effects of the negative OPI is finally showing its hand.

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  2. Much of the snow has melted but it was nice to have secured a meaningful snow event by the halfway point of the winter and the best covering of snow since March 2013 and thankfully that mere cm of lying snow has saved this winter from being in dreaded category of years such as 06/07, 07/08 and 13/14. 5 consecutive days of snow is the second spell of wintry weather this season - the last being in early December - in what is the first sustained spell/period of seasonal conditions in 2015 after a mild and wild start to the New year with only a few colder blips. Next week should also see the second period of proper cold conditions after the nice cold spell post Xmas.

    And it does seem there is currently a shift from predominately mild conditions of the last fortnight into a colder period for the second half of January - quite similar to this time in 12/13. I suppose the mild blip during the next 24hrs will interrupt the current cold spell being part of something more prolonged. Looking at the models it seems to me that perhaps we are about to turn a corner in our winter fortunes. The models are showing cold conditions to persist throughout this weekend and next week and I see the potential for cold conditions/Synoptics to be as deceptively resilient and persistent as the cold spell of January 2013 so a fairly prolonged period of temperatures staying below average could be in the cards.

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  3. I've got a good view from the office and the showers that have made it through have been skirting the top of the Cathkin Braes and hitting East Kilbride before heading into South Lanarkshire. The photo is of one making its way at 16.30. The back end of the of the cloud seems to be sporting an angry pig face! :blink2:

    That was an impressive shower cloud about 20 miles South of here in the Strathaven area and it formed from nowhere on the Ayrshire Coast around Ayr/Prestwick. The pale grey/blue wintry sky has been replaced by cloud cover but no snow yet.

  4. I'm sorry to sound like a party pooper, and I'm the first one to wish everyone within the amber warning at least 20cm of snow, but that weather warning stinks to high heaven to me. I hope I'm wrong, but it's a stinker. Lorenzo highlighted the text which makes the warning stink. It's overwarn to the highest level :(

    I was surprised at the amber warning as well and I'm not getting my hopes up but last night/this morning was a surprise to have enough snow to clear the drive with the shovel for the first time in two years. It seems there are two bites at the cherry during the next 24hrs, some heavy and persistent snow should be in the vicinity of Central/western Scotland and after the snow/hail earlier, I'm confident whatever falls tonight should settle. I would be very happy to see just an inch of snow and there is a decent chance of that happening here and elsewhere in Scotland.

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  5. Heading into Glasgow on Wednesday night via public transport for a concert at the Hydro - if East Kilbride is going to get walloped then let it be AFTER I head out please lol.

    I'm also going to the concert tomorrow evening and wondering what travel conditions will be like after seeing the amber warning. As the warning says, snowfalls will vary locally but I think potentially by midday tomorrow there could be a fair amount of snow after two batches of precipitation cross the country but if there are variations in the location and intensity of snowfall then there could be large differences in snow totals in the Glasgow region. Tomorrow morning/afternoon could see disruption to transport and potentially for a tine in the early evening there could be fresh accumulations before snow turns to rain.

  6. Rain band is tracking North East. Seems to be bouncing off Glasgow snow shieldshield as well,stopping the clyde\forth streamers. Could be a long night for central belt.

    Perhaps not a bad thing as the temperature is still a little too high just now and the colder uppers are supposed to arrive after midnight.

  7. It was a very cold afternoon with a couple of snow showers but it stayed largely dry and bright with puffy shower clouds moving east across the southern sky. I'm too optimistic for the snow chances here but at least this week is set up to be quite interesting for potential wintry weather with first spell of proper winter weather of 2015 after what has been a mild first half to January with only a few days of cold, seasonal conditions.

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  8. I think if this had occurred during the morning rush hour then there would have been a red warning. Even still, there will still be some people venturing during the storm, particularly lorry drivers, and even if people aren't outside during the night, people indoors in the worst affected areas are still at risk.

  9. It's been pretty blowy for a good couple of hours but the gusts are steadily strengthening. I presume once the front has cleared things will get even more lively. Potentially violent conditions after midnight which in my opinion should be severe enough for a red warning. It's going to be a long night and hopefully everyone stays safe.

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  10. It sounded bad enough outside half an hour ago, can't imagine what Thurs night/Fri am will be like and I'm only in SE scotland. North and West take care

    How does this upcoming storm compare to those last year and in 2011/2012. For a while I've been aware of a potentially nasty storm brewing to the NW sometime this week but I haven't really payed much attention to its severity and potency. Hopefully this doesn't turn out as bad as current charts suggest, the prospect of 100mph winds is very worrying and should perhaps warrant a red warning.

  11. I think it is too early to dismiss the OPI. We have been unfortunate that a subdued PV has shown stubborn resilience. I'll need to have another look back at historic data but I seem to recall that a particularly negative OPI never really correlated a particularly below average Decenber, but either one or both of January and February were below average. If we end up with a below average February then I think the OPI theory is still valid. I thin because the OPI index was so low this year, expectations were too high for a winter along the lines of 09/10.

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  12. Glasgow airport just missed out its first ice day since Dec 2012 with 1c recorded at 11.50pm. Nevertheless, today had the coldest maximum since March 2013. For the 32hrs the temperature failed to get above 0C.

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  13. An absolutely fantastic day of proper winter weather. A really hard frost which hasn't lifted and us forming again after a minimum of -6c at Glasgow airport, coldest temperature since 22nd November 2013 and a high of 2C coldest since 25th November 2013. Already -4C so another cold night is in the cards and tomorrow should be the 13th air frost this month which would equal the total for the entirety of DJF last year. In many senses, this winter is already better than last year with this month being a respectable, seasonal, typical December. The inky disappointment is this month was lacking on the snow front, not a complete right off with some snow to speak of it hasnt been meaningful or frequent enough. I've just come back from a day out in Fife and from what I can see in the models, it is perhaps looking a little more favourable for snow opportunities in the New Year.

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