A Winter's Tale

January 28, 2015

Just a cm here but it is a nice covering of snow for the third time this month.

January 28, 2015

Just a few light snow showers coming through every now and then. Currently this isn't amber warning material so this evening and night we really need to see an improvement in the shower or possibly trough activity to our west. I've noticed during the past two days that the peak of snowy conditions for today was being put back from the morning to afternoon to evening and now it seems we might have to wait til night for more promising activity. Currently I'm not too hopeful but there's still time for things to become more interesting and these sort of polar maritime snow events normally deliver after dark.

January 28, 2015

Oh man!! Big intense shower !! Big 50p size snow flakes !!!

That shower has just cleared here and indeed it was very intense.

January 26, 2015

What's the latest thoughts on how far east these snow showers will get Wed/Thu? ie Fife?

euro4 model suggests snow could fall across much of the country midday Wednesday. The Met Office warning looks pretty good - all of Scotland in the warning area and mentions the possibility of 5-10cm of snow to lower levels.

I think much if the country should see snow with some places set for a pretty significant event (parts of the Grampian highlands, some inland parts of Ayrshire ). My concerns for this part of the country is it seems as ever, a strip of the country just to the north of Glasgow between Loch Lomond and Stirling may see less or lighter precipitation. Later in the week/weekend it seems it may become marginal for a time before becoming colder again. Looking to around the middle of next week it seems it may settle down but with milder uppers moving in I'm not too sure on the sort of temperatures we could see. Hopefully Wednesday into Thursday we get widespread, heavy, persistent snow showers and a feature/trough or two crossing the country delivering a proper snow event (hopefully in excess of 10cm in many areas) and perhaps followed by a few more snow events from the north. There is real potential for a very memorable snowy spell but as always there are fine lines in how that potential plays out in reality. A good dumping of snow Wed/Thurs should stay on the ground for up to a week and perhaps beyond but there are great uncertainties regarding weather patterns further into February. The models today seem to have slightly upgraded the longevity of the block but it is still not enough for a prolonged cold spell but a good pasting followed by perhaps some very cold temperature early next week should do just fine.

January 25, 2015

I not sure how it will pan out and might be wrong (sorry somebody correct me if I am) but GFS is still an absolute creamer for cold for wednesday/thursday. How that will translate to possibly anything wintry god knows

There's a huge amount of potential in the charts but we can't be sure what whether that potential will transpire into reality until the event arrives. Very cold uppers in a brisk WNWly wind in theory could deliver a very significant and widespread snowfall (especially for western areas). My interpretation of the charts is the heaviest and most persistent precipitation will be in western parts of the Highlands and Ayrshire and snow could affect western/southern parts of the central belt and into the Lothians but perhaps struggling to reach Eastern areas north of the Forth. Precipitation charts seem to suggest a strip of the county between Dumbarton to Stirling just missing out on the best of the action further west and south. I'm keeping expectations relatively low given the event is too far out for details to be pinned down and there's always a degree of uncertainty regarding any snow event in this part of the world (and I'm already very satisfied with the week of 4-6cm of lying snow, so this event would be a very welcome bonus and I'm hoping for a significant snowfall in excess of 10cm in many areas - the ingredients are there for the Atlantic to act as a snow making machine, especially if troughs are embedded in the flow).

After that it is even more uncertain with low pressure moving southward across the country at the end of next week. Uppers may rise a little but there are other factors which are favourable for precipitation to be largely snow in most areas. But in such a set up, at this range it is impossible to forecast the sort of precipitation and features which are likely to arise at short notice. A fax chart posted on the MT suggested various troughs/occlusions with Scotland's name on it coming down the Arctic late next week. Next weekend should provide a cold northerly before settling down but remaining cold for a few days. This doesn't look like a prolonged cold spell as we lose heights over the Arctic, replaced with lower heights/ thickness which allows for more energy from the eastern segment if the PV to be transferred back westward to Greenland/Canada which prevents proper, sustained blocking.

January 20, 2015

Very light snow just now.

January 19, 2015

The lowest temperature ended up being -4.8 this morning just after I left at 8.

It's now -2.8 which is a lot lower than it was this time last night. The very strange situation here of the ground being either dry or white in the form of a slight covering of frozen snow. Usually there is some dampness somewhere but there isn't.

The STV forecast at 6.30 from Jo said "rain, sleet and snow" moving eastwards tomorrow whilst the Reporting Scotland forecast said "hill snow with some wintryness to low levels at times" tomorrow. I'm a little surprised at that considering that the charts which I've seen look good for snow to all levels except the far west.

It's often the case that most TV forecasts are conservative about snowfalls with the emphasis of 'mostly on the ground' or 'maybe a little snow to some lower levels at times'. I suppose given the expertise of the Met Office, if they think there is a marginal element to tomorrow's event then we should keep that in mind but it my opinion most factors are pointing towards precipitation being snow - but the intensity, duration and location of the precipitation is up for debate.

January 19, 2015

Some pictures from this morning near Kinbrace...

Looking west - the collapsing timber is (I think) the remains of old snow drift fencing for the railway hills.jpg

Young stags all looking south, between the road and railway stags.jpg

Looking way out west to the Sutherland hills over the railway line from just south of Kinbrace trees&snow.jpg

Amazing pics HC. There has been a lot of quality pictures on this thread recently. Perhaps we could create a gallery for kilted thread members to upload images of winter weather or general Scottish scenery.

January 19, 2015

Good link, but looking at it there's a total lack of stations in the central belt from a circle Stirling-Callander-Kilsyth-Falkirk-Dunfermline-Dunblane.

I'd also say there's a lack of stations in Angus, Argyll and Loch Alsh-Mull.

January 19, 2015

Glasgow airport failed to get above 0c - impossible to tell if it got above 0.0C but I'll take that as the first ice day since December 2012. Absolutely freezing out there and very wintry looking with the snow cover - only some gritted streets/drive ways/pavements and some grass underneath trees aren't covered in snow. The snow is frozen with the depth up to 4cm. The GFS 12z appeared to be good for snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.

January 19, 2015

Tomorrow's event does appear to be a little underwhelming if some charts and forecasts are to go by - light, narrow, fragmented precipitation - but the only areas in the UK to be given a warning by the met office is South Western and central Scotland so that's an encouraging sign.

January 18, 2015

A fantastic winter's day with not much thawing of the snow in the sun. Currently subzero so a very cold night should be on the cards. Not too much activity on the snow front this coming week but it seems the NE have enjoyed some snow this evening aswell as scattered snow showers in the north of the country. Eastern areas could also see some snow at times in the coming days. There's uncertainty regarding the potential snow event on Tuesday and I don't really know what to expect. Some charts show a pretty decent snow event but looking at the country file forecast it seems a narrow/fragmented band of precipitation should bring some patchy light snow but I'm hoping we end up with something a little better than that.

January 17, 2015

A slight thaw today but not too much damage done. A lovely clear evening with a scattering of cirrus clouds in the darkening skies with a bit of light/blue lingering on. There as a heavy snow shower in the morning but nothing since. Hopefully a cold evening/night to come so that the snow cover freezes. It would be nice to add to the snow cover tonight but I'm not too hopeful as I suspect if the band does manage to cross the Mountains the precipitation is likely to be further east and there is a risk if some raining falling from it to lower levels. For some northern and eastern parts there is a chance of some snow spreading South in the next couple of days. I'm not sure how to interpret the Synoptics for the frontal snow early next week wrt intensity/persistence of the precipitation but it seems some snow should fall from it and out if nowhere some of the models are showing another snow event from the west for Wednesday.

January 16, 2015

There seems to be more precipitation heading east in the Atlantic. It will be interesting to see what this leads to.

January 16, 2015

I've really enjoyed roaming through the snowy streets this evening. 6cm isn't a helluva lot but for this part of the world it is about as good as you can hope for and this following a satisfactory covering early in the week has secured a respectable winter which has delivered unlike last year. Hopefully the snow will stay on the ground in the days to come (perhaps done more snowfall to the cover) and perhaps accompanied with very low temperatures.

January 16, 2015

Surprises were bound to come during this cold spell but boy what a surprise was this snow event. It seems to have caught a lot of people out and wasn't really forecast - more worthy of an amber warning than the event earlier this week. The depth here is 6cm, another 3-4cm would make for largest snow depth since December 2010 but the radar is suggesting much in the way of shower activity north of Glasgow but parts of Ayrshire seem to be in the firing line of more snow.

January 16, 2015

Some pictures - more to come - of the streets in the area. https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/album/1632-snow-16th-january-2015/

January 16, 2015

Cars are really struggling on the roads here - probably the most unexpected and disruptive snowfall since December 2010.

January 16, 2015

I've got a few videos but I'm struggling to upload so I'll try and get some pics. My sister is meant to travel from Edinburgh to Oslo tomorrow and will have to leave Glasgow early. The snow has stopped here and I've had no time to check the radar so is anymore snow in the way.

January 16, 2015

5cm - best snow event since February 2013.

January 16, 2015

Unbelievable snow event. Snowmageddon.

January 16, 2015

Very heavy snow with big fluffy flakes has left another covering on everything.

January 16, 2015

Snowing here with a nice dusting which is a but of a surprise

Heavy Lying snow in Prestwick. WTF!!

WTF indeed!

January 16, 2015

Alright, sorry for my absence, had a hellish Quantum Mechanics hand in to do for today (is there any other type?) and pipe band this evening.

Anyway, we're still on for some snow tomorrow....

Now there's a lot of uncertainty around this and subsequent developments, particularly RE how far south the low gets, how long and cold the easterly flow that follows is and whether the poor folks on the M4 can ever conclusively know whether it's going to snow or rain, but if the above chart did come off as modelled, with a slack southerly surface flow and an Atlantic occlusion, then we (even Hawesy, although that's only because he'll be in Lancashire) would be digging ourselves out by Wednesday morning. The issue is then what comes after - the likelihood is an easterly, but the problem is that, if the low disrupts enough to bring in an easterly but not properly drag enough cold air west, we end up in a horrific east coast slush fest, at least for a few hours. The UKMO, with its slow progression and potential phasing of the real cold air out in Siberia with our trough longer term, would almost certainly avoid that:

A very good summary of the upcoming cold period LS. I didn't notice that occlusion on Saturday night and the fax chart looks interesting wrt the front next week. It just goes to show how many important details are at play in set us such as this. From what I've seen in the models today that front next week seemed to have tracked further south - which happened a lot in 2013 - with lighter precipitation struggling to get much beyond southern and western parts of the country. Hopefully as details firm up over the weekend the models could paint a pretty picture for much of Scotland. If we can get some decent and widespread snow cover then that should bode well for very low temperatures as well.

January 16, 2015

I'm a little disappointed with the output today, mainly the easterly for next week which has sunk south and is looking less potent. The next few days will see some areas in Scotland get a decent fall but after that, those south of the border look to be in prime position for fronts and lows.

However, tomorrow is a new day...

Well at least the next 7 days are looking cold with potentially some very cold temperatures on some days. In terms of longevity if the cold spell and snow prospects today had been somewhat of a downgrade. Some parts of the country should see snow showers in the next 72hrs - I'm not optimistic about anything mounting up to much here but there are opportunities for a few surprises in places this weekend. Sadly the frontal snow event for Tuesday looks set to miss most of Scotland as so often is the case in such scenarios the front sinks south from where it was projected to be. After that a largely dry, but very cold few days with some snow showers in eastern areas but most of the activity will be south of the border. However it is impossible to judge snow prospects in such scenarios beyond 48hrs so there's still plenty of interest next week but I've got a feeling that we may need another attempt at HLB to be more successful on the snow front.

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