A Winter's Tale

It also appears Scotland may have a new minimum temperature record with 21.3C recorded at Nunraw Abbey, East Lothian.

Met Office have confirmed 34.8 at Charterhall. Annoyingly just a little short of 35C but perhaps there will be more data to come from other stations. An amazing and concerning historic day.

I’m glad Glasgow airport managed to reach a rare 30C (on the same day as Edinburgh airport). Not record breaking big a notable temperature in an exceptional period weather. With cloud cover increasing it’s starting to drop and I thought I heard some thunder. The radar is looking lively to the south west so maybe we will have a thundery breakdown.

Glasgow airport has reached 30C. I’m certain some official met office stations have exceeded the record. In the north of England Reesdale Camp has recorded 33.7C.

Warmest day of the year at Glasgow airport with a temperature of 29C.

It looks like Aberdeenshire and Fife set new record high temperatures. https://higheredbcs.wiley.com/legacy/college/doe/1118949951/pdf/Doe_web3.pdf

35.2C at Floors Castle

Warmest day of the year at Glasgow Airport at 28C. Not exceptional but we rarely achieve 29C+. Tomorrow could be hotter in the Glasgow area but the peak will come earlier in the afternoon with cooler air arriving from the west. 30C+ is a possibility (which would be exceptional) and had the arrival of cooler air been delayed slightly then 32C+ would have been more of a possibility. Further east it’s likely we’ll see a new record - possibly exceeding the current record by 2C+. Tomorrow truly has the potential to be absolutely astonishing. In the 20th century, 35C only occurred in 10 years in the UK and 37C just once.

If that’s anywhere near correct the met office should consider extending the red warning to other parts of northern England and SE Scotland. I think Scotland’s record will go tomorrow but anything above 35C would be absolutely astonishing.

Now 28C at Edinburgh airport

I can see the met office extending the amber warning further north in eastern Scotland. I wouldn’t rule out a red warning in the south east if the models show maximum temperatures of 35C+.

Latest UKV is absolutely unbelievable. 33C+ across the eastern central lowlands and 37C in the south east!

Still looking very hot for Tuesday. I think by the end of today we’ll have a better idea of what the chances of breaking records will be.

Net-WX MR model UKV GFS ECM UKMO Icon GEM

GFS 00z is insane. 34C in the Grampian region. 33C in the central belt.

GFS 18z is another exceptionally hot run for Scotland. 32C in the central belt and 31C near the Moray coast.

UKMO Tuesday afternoon GEM Tuesday evening GFS Tuesday morning The GFS has the warmest air arriving Monday night before clearing away Tuesday afternoon. It’s not the optimal set up for high temperatures but the GFS still produces two days of widespread temps of 25-29 with 30+ in one or two areas. The UKMO and GEM look exceptional and would likely produce widespread temperature of 29-32 with some places possibly experiencing record breaking highs of 33-35. We’re still a few days away from having a better idea of just how hot the start of next week could be but I’m very confident much of Scotland will have a couple of very warm/hot days. You can post your predictions of Scotland’s highest temperatures next week in this thread: Personally I think somewhere in southern Scotland will reach somewhere between 31 and 32. If parts of Scotland are under 20C+ uppers during the daytime with clear skies and potential foehn effect/urban heating then we could see absolutely exceptional temperatures. I would love to see a new Scottish record (threaten to reach the mid 30s) as well as Glasgow record a rare 30c but I must admit I’m not too sure I want to experience temperatures of 32C+. At least we are not going to experience the 35-40 degree heat forecast for large swathes of England (including northern areas).

It’s looking increasingly likely Scotland will see its highest temperatures of the summer so far between the 17th and 20th July. It’s possible we could see temperatures challenge the July record high of 32.8 or the all time record of 32.9. It looks like much of southern Scotland at least will experience uppers of 15c+ and perhaps 20c+ for a time. There’s still uncertainty concerning the extent, duration, timing and intensity of the airmass but if the GFS 0z is on to something we could see widespread temperatures in the high twenties next Monday and Tuesday with some places creeping into the low thirties. With the UK record likely to be challenged and possibly Ireland’s as well, use this thread to guess the maximum temperature for Scotland between Sunday 17th and Wednesday 20th July - if you wish you can guess the location and the date. Synoptic and climate stations WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The map shows the current network of automatic (synoptic) and manual (climate) stations covering the UK.

GFS 0z for next Tuesday is the hottest forecast for Scotland I’ve ever seen. 31C in Grampian, 32C in the Central Belt and 33-34C in the south east. I doubt record breaking temperatures will materialise but it’s looking increasingly likely that Sunday-Wednesday will be the warmest spell of the summer so far.

40.3, London (Heathrow), July 18th.

One of the better days of what has been an uninspiring summer so far. 21c max at Glasgow airport under cloudless blue sky. Some more decent days to come with temperatures around the mid 20s in some parts of the country. As for what the models are showing for next weekend in southern England it’s not often I’d say I’d be glad if we are more than 20c cooler. The GFS has produced back to back runs of widespread 40C+ temperatures and highs of 43C (and 44C on the latest run) in southern England. It’s unlikely to verify but it’s looking increasingly likely there’ll be extremely hot and potentially record breaking temperatures. It seems highly likely that Scotland will miss out on the plume but could still see temperatures in the low-mid twenties in southern and eastern areas. I do wonder what sort of temperatures Scotland could see if we ever got a direct hit from a plume of this potency.

Exactly the same conditions here.

A fairly heavy snow shower rolling through just now.

An absolutely stunning day with Glasgow airport recording 19C - highest March temperature since 2012. It’s amazing to think a month ago there was a couple of inches of snow on the ground. In the past week or so it has looked and felt more like May/early June than March. It looks like things are about to change at the end of the month with much colder air arriving from the north. At this time of year it’s not unusual to see big swings in the weather. As much as I enjoy the fluctuations of Spring weather and the novelty of late wintry weather I would rather the charts on show for next week had occurred two or three months earlier and I hope we see more of the recent warm, sunny and settled weather during the next six months.

The snow depth this morning was 5cm before reducing in the sunshine and wet snow. It’s quite remarkable to squeeze two 5cm snowfalls in what has been a poor winter. It’s a pity today’s snowfall has occurred in the final days of February rather than late Jan or even early Feb as the strength of the sun really damages snow cover.