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A Winter's Tale

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Everything posted by A Winter's Tale

  1. An absolutely stunning morning. Glasgow airport got down to -9C which is the joint coldest March temperature since 1973. Despite the lack of snow 2022/23 has been one of the more impressive seasons in recent years in terms of low temperatures. -15.2C in Kinbrace is the lowest March temperature since 2010 - and in the years since 2010 there have been a number of winters that failed to record -15C. Sadly it looks like most of us - certainly the central belt northwards - are going to just miss out on a battleground snowfall....again. There’s the chance things may end further north than expected. There may be a few more opportunities for frontal snowfalls but I’m not holding my breath and certainly not expecting widespread snow cover in excess of 30cm. At this rate I’d be happy just to see some snow and would settle for a brief covering of an inch or two. Anything more than that would be a bonus and if we can’t get a mega snowfall of 30cm+ then a 10cm+ snowfall is rare enough in these parts for me to be very happy. Fingers crossed we are not so unlucky in this weekend and beyond.
  2. Sadly I think it’s over for the Glasgow area with another southward shift on the 12z. The Edinburgh area might just hang on but can’t afford any more movement south.
  3. It’s been a while since frontal snow delivered at least a couple of inches of snow here (Jan 2018). March 2006 was the last major battleground snowfall I’ve experienced. As far as central Scotland is concerned often it seems heavy frontal snow either misses us to the south, or is too marginal and we end up with sleety/rain with heavy snow on the high ground and to the north, or the snow is light and patchy and doesn’t amount to much. Hopefully this time last different. I’ve just had a look at the GFS ensembles and the uncertainty is remarkable. In some cases the snow ends up to the south of Cumbria, or to the north of the Highland Boundary Fault Line. I’d say most have much of the southern half of Scotland seeing some snow for a time. There’s also uncertainty with the timing. This winter has been pretty frustrating. The cold spell we had in December doesn’t come along every year but the second half of the winter was as barren as I’ve experienced in terms of snow. So far I’ve recorded 8 days of falling snow (there may have been some more with sleet) and the cold spells in early December and mid January didn’t really help in thatcher regard although there was a decent 8cm fall in December. Last year was pretty dismal although I managed to squeeze a couple of 2 inch snowfalls out of it. Hopefully the coming days will provide opportunities for most of us to get a decent fall of snow. Having gone nearly two months without snow I’d be happy to just see some snow flakes though I’d love a fall of snow o the magnitude of 2006 and 2018 to make up for the lack of snowfall of January and February. Wherever the snow falls later this week somewhere will likely experience a hefty fall of snow.
  4. Hopefully we don’t see any further southward shift - history suggests that will continue unfortunately. In any case I think the south eastern corner of Scotland is likely to see quite a lot of snow - how much remains to be seen. At the moment my location is just on the edge - any southward movement and the north side of Glasgow missed out. I expect areas to the south east will do quite well providing we don’t see another shift south. There could be more opportunities for frontal snow afterwards but probably not if the same potential as Thursday/Friday.
  5. Winter 2022/23 was a strange winter. December was cold and seasonal for once with one of the more notable cold spells of the past 10 years which saw some impressively low temperatures day and night and one decent snowfall in excess of 3 inches. Not many winters can boast the sort of weather we experienced in December. Sadly, in the end December 2022 prevented the winter as a while from being a write off. The last two months, especially the second half of the winter was as poor as I’ve experienced in terms of the lack of wintry weather. Since the New Year I’ve only seen two brief overnight light falls of snow with the last of these occurring in mid January. I’ve never known an entire winter month to be completely snowless. Once more we are looking at the the return of winter in Spring - as a result of a SSW - as was the case in 2013 and 2018. It’s frustrating we have to wait for the official winter to end to get the Synoptics conducive to cold and snow. A slight covering of snow is more likely to hang around for longer in the crisp winter sunshine than the stronger sunlight of Spring. Nevertheless winter can still pack a punch in Spring with large snowfalls and low nighttime temperatures. Two of the largest snowfalls I’ve experienced occurred in Mar 2006 and late Feb/early Mar 2018. Having gone such a long time without seeing snow I’d be happy to just see some snow falling from the sky though I’d love to experience a large fall of snow to make up for past couple of months. I don’t expect the coming period to be as notable as 2018 in terms of severity or 2013 in terms of longevity - it may not even be the most significant period of winter weather thus season - but I expect it may rank alongside 2001, 2006, 2013 and 2018 as a notable late winter/early Spring cold spell. I expect like earlier in the winter the areas exposed to the northerly wind will be in the firing line for snow showers or more organised snow. Here in the Glasgow area, the cold spells in early Dec and mid Jan were dry and I suspect we’ll struggle to see much in the way of snow from the north. Unlike early in the winter there appears to a greater risk of frontal snowfall. Past experience would suggest that we may be too far north to experience a disruptive frontal snowfall but maybe this time might be different. The longevity of the cold spell is uncertain though there is the chance Scotland will remain on the cold side or cold weather may return after a mild blip.
  6. The highest snow depth I’ve recorded was 26cm on 1 Mar 2018. In my experience living just outside Glasgow I would consider: Less than an inch - minor snowfall 1-2 inches - light snowfall 2-4 inches - moderate snowfall 4-8 inches - significant snowfall 8 inches+ - major snowfall Since I’ve started recording snow depths in Nov 2010 there have been: 1 snowfall of 20cm+, 3 10cm+ and 17 5cm+. I looked at the historic snow depth records of some stations around Glasgow since the the 1960s and kept a note of days with a depth of 10cm+. Here are days with a depth of 15cm+ from 1960-2018: 19 Feb 1960 15 Paisley, 15 Springburn 19 Feb 1966 15 Paisley, 18 Springburn 6 Feb 1968 15 Springburn 6 Jan 1970 15 Springburn 21 Jan 1973 25 Springburn 14 Feb 1973 18 Springburn 15 Feb 1973 15 Springburn 19 Jan 1978 15 Paisley 31 Dec 1978 18 Paisley, 24 Springburn 1 Jan 1979 24 Springburn 2 Jan 1979 15 Paisley, 16 Springburn 3 Jan 1979 15 Paisley, 16 Springburn 10 Jan 1979 15 Paisley, 23 Springburn 11 Jan 1979 15 Paisley, 19 Springburn 12 Jan 1979 18 Springburn 13 Jan 1979 18 Springburn 14 Jan 1979 17 Springburn 15 Jan 1979 17 Springburn 22 Mar 1980 15 Abbotsinch 16 Jan 1984 15 Paisley 17 Jan 1984 16 Springburn 18 Jan 1984 18 Springburn 19 Jan 1984 17 Springburn 20 Jan 1984 17 Springburn 21 Jan 1984 17 Springburn 22 Jan 1984 20 Springburn 23 Jan 1984 20 Paisley, 25 Springburn 24 Jan 1984 20 Paisley, 15 Abbotsinch, 32 Springburn 25 Jan 1984 20 Paisley, 25 Springburn 26 Jan 1984 20 Paisley, 15 Abbotsinch, 25 Springburn 27 Jan 1984 20 Paisley, 20 Springburn 28 Jan 1984 18 Springburn 12 Jan 1987 15 Springburn 13 Jan 1987 18 Paisley, 16 Abbotsinch, 26 Springburn 14 Jan 1987 18 Abbotsinch, 26 Springburn 15 Jan 1987 19 Abbotsinch, 19 Springburn 17 Jan 1987 15 Springburn 25 Jan 1990 15 Springburn. 7 Feb 1996 16 Paisley, 18 Abbotsinch 28 Dec 2000 23 Paisley 29 Dec 2000 23 Paisley, 30 Dec 2000 18 Paisley 12 Mar 2006 19 Paisley, 22 Bishopton 7 Dec 2010 15 Paisley 2 Mar 2018 46 Bishopton 3 Mar 2018 39 Bishopton 4 Mar 2018 34 Bishopton 5 Mar 2018 22 Bishopton
  7. Happy New Year! And some snow to begin 2023 - hopefully more to come this year.
  8. I’d like to wish everyone a merry Christmas. It appears some have had a technical white Christmas - I couldn’t tell earlier when the front was passing through but the rain looked sleety to me. The outlook for the foreseeable is fairly typical for the time of year with the changeable conditions and perhaps some transient opportunities for snow. Tomorrow will be pretty wintry for much of Scotland though I suspect the high ground and areas north of the central belt will stand the best chance of settling snow.
  9. Snow has arrived here but I doubt it will add to the cm of snow cover remaining from Friday. Nice to end an interesting couple of weeks of seasonal and at times notably cold winter weather with some snow. Tomorrow will be a shock to the system with much milder weather which won’t be completely unwelcome as far as heating the house and icy streets are concerned. The Christmas period could be interesting though there’s a lot of uncertainty - the set up reminds me a little of last year so I’d remain cautious for now. It does look likely the festive period will be rather seasonal - if not especially snowy - which would be a fitting end to what has been a December with proper winter weather. While it hasn’t been a classic month for snow potentially Scotland could have a monthly mean temperature below 0C which would be very notable.
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