A Winter's Tale

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A Winter's Tale last won the day on June 5 2012

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About A Winter's Tale

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    Clyde-Forth Streamer
  • Birthday 08/05/96

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    Torrance, East Dunbartonshire
  • Weather Preferences
    snow/cold winter, sunny, seasonal, pleasant, varied and interesting weather

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  1. A few snow/sleet showers have been rolling in from the NW since the afternoon. Too wet to settle but nice to see the first snow of 2017. I can't say I'm overly optimistic about tomorrow with forecasts, charts and warnings fluctuating. This isn't any more than a typical spell of winter weather but it's much better than what we've had since the end of November. As always in set ups like this, the showers are hit or miss and so too are the rewards. NWLys can either be largely sunny and breezy with a few wet snow showers or frequent snow showers merging into longer spells of frequent snow and decent accumulations. My expectations are low for tomorrow but set-ups like this can always conjure up a surprise and deliver the best snowfalls in this part of the nation. The latest euro4 update looks pretty decent for quite a lot of Scotland, especially further north and west, so hopefully tomorrow will be a marked improvement on the winter so far and deliver something to cheer about to us all. It seems to be a trend in recent winters for cold and snow begin just after a third of the way through January. It's going to take a lot to make up for the disappointing first half of the winter, but tomorrow is chance to at least change fortunes and hopefully things will be looking up going into the second half of winter. The models have had a horrid time this winter. The amount of charts showing potential of easterlies and northern blocking for only one model (particularly the UKMO and ECM) to be showing a different outcome and to eventually be proven correct. December was pretty sore given the promise of cold and snow which vanished very abruptly and the past week had been pretty lively regarding what follows the blast of winter weather this week. For a long time the GFS has been showing a flatter outcome, whilst the UKMO and especially the ECM (which has delivered a couple of stunning runs) have been more amplified and hinting at a potential for an easterly - primarily for southern and eastern parts. The last 24hrs have been tops turvy, with the overnight runs, especially UKMO, casting doom over the illusive easterly. This evening thankfully (for the sake of the MT) has seen an improvement and kept alive the chances of an easterly via a Scandi/Scotland high though what's caught my eye is the trend for the core of the PV to transfer east to Siberia, and a couple of runs indicating the possibility of height rises to the NW.
  2. Happy New Year Everyone
  3. I have to say I was absolutely astonished at what the GFS 6Z showed this morning. Easily the best run I've seen for cold and snow. Before the run came out, I was confident of a better January for cold and snow with a northerly to start the New year and possible reloads although opportunities of snow looking intermittent with established blocking looking unlikely with areas of high pressure closer to the Uk. The incredible run this morning as you'd expect was an outlier but I think most of us would take an outcome which was half as good as the GFS 6z op. It will be interesting to see what the models churn out this evening though a repeat of earlier is unlikely, especially given ten inconsistency recently beyond 6/7 days. At least things are looking up in the New Year (although we couldn't have been much worse in December) with the promise of at least some more seasonal weather and hopefully we'll be rewarded with at least a decent spell of snow or cold.
  4. Merry Christmas everyone!
  5. Briefly snowing here for the first time in over a month. I was beginning to wonder if December was going to be snowless. November, unusually was more like a winter month in terms of the weather we had with a little snow, and some excellent and very cold settled spell in what has been up until now a very anti cyclonic period for a few months now. Model watching since the end of October was more like mid winter with the early promising signs for winter. Alas, the long range forecasts and background signals failed to come to fruition and we've had essentially the very opposite of a front-loaded winter which just goes to show the perils of long range forecasting, especially for this part of the world. So after the early optimism, it is particularly frustrating for December to turn out the way it has, especially the first two thirds. Other than an ice day, the odd frost or less mild day/night there has been very little to resemble a December or a winter month, in fact more like October/November. The even more frustrating thing is last December was pretty much the same (if not a little better). The last time December had been remotely seasonal was 2014. 2013 was more like this and last year, and 2011 and 2012 had spells of cold and mild, and some lying snow which I haven't seen here in December since. It is disappointing to frequently see much of December being dominated by relentlessly mild weather. It's very normal to have periods of mild weather at this time of year, but 3 of the last 4 years have seen the first two thirds offer very little in conditions which resemble the time of year. Despite my preference for cold and snow I don't mind some mild winter weather as it's part of our climate and can have some benefits and uses but the persistence of the mild weather in recent Decembers have eaten up much of the month with very little winter weather. At least this year, it's been pretty settled for a change which has prevented storms or flooding and has made some things easier without being outside in 6C in driving cold rain and sleet. But much of the time it has barely felt or looked like December with the absence of chilly, clear evening. And it's been pretty dull, and despite how the settled autumn has been quite refreshing for a change, after a while I've began to miss the the mobility of the Atlantic weather, which we so often complain about, but nevertheless is common and fundamental aspect of our climate which has been largely absent recently. As is often the case, we see a change in the weather in the final third of December which sees the year out and introduces the next. In 2015 and 2013, we went from very mild weather to less mild weather and the same could happen this year, accompanied with the return of Atlantic in time for Christmas, bringing the risk if storms which will hopefully be downgraded. We expected more for December than brief shots of polar maritime air, but compared with what we've had, it's better for introducing some normal winter weather and chances of a little snow. We could get an official white Christmas for the first time in 6 years. Although I'd prefer the unofficial white Christmas of lying snow under clear blue sky, rather than some wet snow showers in gale force winds but I suppose it's better than nothing. I still think the rest of winter is all to play for and there are some signs that perhaps January might offer something different. I'm not optimistic of a rewarding new year for cold and snow, but I'm fairly confident that it can't get much worse than what we've endured so far,and there's still plenty of time to get something out of the winter.
  6. Heavy snow with big flakes coming down.
  7. Easily the best snowfall I've seen this early in the season. It's just under half a cm which isn't overwhelming but the festive scene of most surfaces covered with steady flakes falling down from the orange, snow-filled sky, this passes for a satisfying snow event in any winter month, and surpasses anything which came out of a couple of previous winters. This is November 8th, barely over 6 months since the last snowfall, weeks away from the start of the meteorological winter, and considering only once have I seen a couple of flakes before mid November and only two previous years I've had settling snow in November, to have an unexpected event like this just a few days after bonfire's night is pretty amazing and an excellent start and hopefully a precursor to a decent winter.
  8. Steadily snowing and starting to settle. It looks like by far the earliest snow cover I've seen here.
  9. snowing here - remarkable!
  10. A fine September evening here after some recent damp and gloomy conditions. It's been a pretty benign but warm start to September with a few days reaching the 20s, and no minimum has gone below double digits. But despite the warmth, the change in daylight makes it apparent we're in autumn with some residual warmth from summer lingering on but further south it must have felt like mid summer with the sort of temperatures and thunderstorms they've experienced.
  11. The storm largely missed here and seemed t be confined to the area including and north of the Clyde Estuary. There was very little thunder and briefly heavy rain but there were plenty of flashes of lightning to the west and north.
  12. Yeah, it's among the warmest I've experienced here, I've most likely have experienced hotter temperatures when in Spain or even southern England. Funnily enough, despite a high of 28C and very warm temperatures lasting into the night, I've experienced less enjoyable warmth on many occasions with lower temperatures than usual. It didn't seem to be too humid, or a particulary strong sun and there was enough of a breeze around. Ironically, it's feels warmer inside now than earlier with today's heat being released from the ground.
  13. Lightning and thunder just to the west.
  14. After a month of uninspiring summer weather we have the warmed day if the year and possibly one of the warmest days I've ever experienced with 28c at Glasgow airport. And bizarrely it feels quite pleasant for now. I don't think I've experienced 30C so it'll be interesting to see what happens in tne next couple of hours. It's a shame that we don't have a couple of days of 25c and sunshine either side of today, a bit like a northerly toppler during winter. There's the potential for some thunderstorms later and despite not being a huge fan of storms, I can barely remember the last rumble of thunder I've heard so a lively storm might be quite nice for a change. A warm and humid night to come after a rare clear sky last night. Interestingly last night with clear skies I saw what looked like a moving star, which for an hour roamed across parts of the sky with occasional abrupt movements. It certainly wasn't a satelitte but I wonder if it was some military aircraft or drone.
  15. Haha! Get in there son.