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A Winter's Tale

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A Winter's Tale last won the day on June 5 2012

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About A Winter's Tale

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    Clyde-Forth Streamer

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    Torrance/Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

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  1. As expected the models are showing different solutions for the cold spell, with some shifts south and north and the uppers not as cold as previous runs (for parts of England at least). The charts are still impressive with a very cold easterly and most solutions look pretty decent for snow chances. Eastern areas are looking good for snow in most scenarios being modelled, it's just a question of how much snow will fall and how far inland. At the moment I think even my chances of seeing some snow are quite good although this could change depending on whether the set up is conducive enough for convective snow showers. Some charts have shown the potential for frontal snowfall coming into play, so there could be more oppurtunities for snow if the easterly doesn't deliver. A prolonged cold spell isn't looking likely at the moment but it's too early to be thinking about the breakdown with cold set to arrive next week and hopefully plenty of snow will follow. There's the potential for further upgrades with some recent runs showing very cold upper air in Scandinavia with uppers close to -20C not far away from the Shetland Islands, which is extraordinary for the end of winter.
  2. A high of 12C at Glasgow airport is the eighteenth double digit maxima this winter - as many as December 2015 alone and comparable to the totals of 2013 and 2015. Last winter had 37 highs above 10C, 2009/10 has just 4. We haven't yet experienced the prolonged cold of other winters and mean temperatures for December and January in Scotland are around average with two sub 3C months for the first time since 2015, with December and January the coldest since 2012 and 2011 respectively. Despite being an 'average' winter in terms of temperature, this is probably the best winter since 2010/11. 2012/2013 perhaps had more prolonged spells of cold weather with more blocking and two weeks of days with consecutive snowfall in March 2013, while the second half of January 2015 had the best part of two weeks of lying snow. Despite any blocking of note, and before the SSW earlier this month, this winter has seen much shorter and infrequent mild spells in comparison to recent winters with a theme of recurring cold and snow spells. The cold began in November, with many frosts and the first falling and lying snow occurring later in the month. Early December saw the coldest maximum temperature and first White Christmas since 2010, and the largest December snowfall since 2011. January saw the coldest minimum and most significant week of snow since 2010 with snow falling on seven consecutive days. The first snowfall was the largest since December 6 2010, and largest January snowfall in a long time with 9cm. Smaller falls of snow followed concluding with 5cm, bringing the total to 10cm, the largest in January since 2010. This month has paled in comparison, with 2cm on a couple of occasions. Remarkably, all of the snow has been sourced from the Atlantic rather than an Arctic or continental airmass. Polar westerlies tend to be more frequent than northerly or easterly winds and also tend to be more reliable in delivering measurable snowfalls. The most potent polar westerlies can deliver some of the best snow events with inches of fine snow, while less potent can deliver decent but more modest falls of a few cm, some can deliver very little with either miserable non events with damp, dull windy conditions or more pleasant spells of winter sunshine. This winter has seen a mixture of these characteristics, with greater frequency which had resulted in greater success of the number and quality of snow events. More prolonged or potent cold spells with blocking - possibly aided by the stratospheric warming events - with easterly or northerly winds may deliver deeper cold and snow totals, but this winter has shown you can have a productive and fulfilling winter with more ordinary Synoptics. It kind of feels strange but I feel quite relaxed about the upcoming cold spell courtesy of time SSW as it feels like a bonus to an already successful winter. Personally, I wish the SSW happened a month earlier, but March 2013 showed you can have a significant cold spell during Spring, and despite the stronger sun, March can offer further snowfall oppurtunities with the biggest snowfall I've experienced coming in 2006. I've stopped reading the Model Thread after some of the madness earlier in the season until today to see the extreme levels of excitement and the charts on offer. The charts are full of potential, with I presume some of the best Synoptics in a long time (although I recall -15C uppers in March 2013) - especially for parts of England. It's quite remarkable to be looking at an air mass that cold at the tail end of winter though it's less surprising after 2013. After reading some posts in the MT writing off winter because of the illusive easterly, the current charts are a reminder that just as a football match isn't won or lost until after 90 minutes are played, winter can deliver its best and the sort of Synoptics people crave for at the very end or later. I'm keeping my expectations low for this upcoming cold spell low in terms of how cold and snowy and for how long. After seeing lying snow on numerous occasions in each month since November, it'd be nice to see some more in March although I'm less fussed after having more than a fair share of snowfall this winter. Easterlies can deliver for Glasgow and western areas, with over 20cm in November 2010, though we tend to miss out on a lot of the action. I'm not expecting much, considering the time of year with cooler SSTs and a stronger sun than In 2010, although the uppers appear to be colder. It'll be very interesting to see what the models show in the coming days and what transpires from this spell. Hopefully a memorable one for many, especially for eastern parts that missed out on a lot of the action this winter.
  3. A covering of a couple of cm this morning.
  4. Snow 21st January 2018

    Frontal Snowfall of 5cm. Depths up to 10cm
  5. Much better than expected with snow depth varying between 5-10cm. snow easing off now.
  6. Wet snow melting the cover from earlier this evening.
  7. There was still a good covering on the grass and some other surfaces, patchy covering on roofs and barely any on walls and trees but now everything is back to white with heavy snow.
  8. Snow shower coming through now.
  9. Sleet just now and thawing snow cover varying between 3-7cm.
  10. Despite the front seeming to be further north than forecast I can't say I'm confident of adding more snow to the current total. It'll probably start as rain and any snow will be light and wet. However, parts of southern Scotland including Ayrshire and Lanarkshire could see quite heavy and prolonged snowfall, especially in the amber warning area.
  11. Snow 16th January 2018

  12. After today's snow it would have been fantastic to have a frontal snowfall deliver at least another couple of inches to the total. At least we don't have to worry about the mild sector and there are other opportunities for snow during the rest of the week - Sunday could see snow on leading edge of the front.
  13. Best snowfall since 2010 with 9cm
  14. Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

    More than 4cm currently.
  15. Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards

    Latest euro4 is spectacular http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2018/01/15/basis06/ukuk/prty/18011618_1506.gif http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2018/01/15/basis06/ukuk/prty/18011700_1506.gif