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Whether Idle

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Everything posted by Whether Idle

  1. A finishing number in the region 3.9 to 4.3 seems very plausible.
  2. light to moderate snow +0.8/-0.1 Slushy deposits at sea level; 1-2 cms at 125m
  3. rain here at sea level on the coast as expected. 2.7c just too warm, by around 2 degrees!
  4. Hi 18z GFS better. Its only of bonus value to see some flakes falling. At the moment Id say its 50/50 but Ive a feeling it will be colder than is currently forecast, so chance of at least seeing some flakes fall to get that winter feeling.
  5. Sorry, meant Arome: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=40&mode=101&map=0 edit -Check out the hi res GFS 18z
  6. Snow chances are there this week, albeit an outside bet. Chance 1 - back edge snow as the cold front clears around 5-7am on Tuesday - chance of a slushy layer on the Downs 50% risk Chance 2 - Kent streamer possibly to set up Thursday/Friday if the Arpege has it right - though it would be a case of wet snow only with altitude and cold rain for most - 20% chance Both of these worth keeping an eye out for.
  7. A slap in the face from the ECM for coldies. Will it be slapped down itself though?
  8. I cautiously suggest a post adjustment CET finishing number of 6.6c-ish is likely for December
  9. Quite correct Matthew. high nighttime minima will be they key to keeping the CET much closer to 7c than 6c.
  10. Todays ECM 12z gives a final CET of around 6.7c. Big differences are apparent from run to run at the moment, all down to the position and cloud content and uppers in the high.
  11. Finishing number now above 6c seems reasonably likely as the output is milder. How far above 6c is very debateable.
  12. ...Or Arome. the 12z goes for 12cms or so over the Downs of North and East kent, at lower levels closer to 3-5cms. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php?mode=45&x=5151.95&y=2597.08&ech=42&zoom=3.5 My expectation here in Dover is for up to 5cms and as little as 2cms so a mean of 3-4cms. the hills to my N and W will fare better - maybe 10cms at best?
  13. The North Sea is not far off the LTA. Id be more focussed on inland solar convection in your locale.
  14. Its the upper cold pool that will make the difference between light and heavy snow showers. If it passes over, you will know about it! More runs needed. Events of Saturday night weather-wise will become a bit clearer by Thursday 12zs, so another 2 days of fruity debate about where it will snow.
  15. 15 April 1966 - easterly depositing 6 inches of snow in daylight hours on the North Downs in Kent - an ice day too. So 20 March is not too late at all.
  16. In days of yore, the first attack fails bringing show in a line all points southward from north Pembrokeshire to Portsmouth with a possible extension east as far as Hastings on the coastal strip.
  17. A very pleasing run from the ECM. It has to be hoped the deep cold can win this battle at 144-168.
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