Clearly some issues with the transference of negative wind anomalies across the upper part of the troposphere which make previous thoughts somewhat waide of the mark in relation to cold. However, the general circulation has progressed as anticipated. The extended range discussion is likely to continue to revolve around a strong reload of La Nina type pattern and when or if the impacts of a significant stratospheric warming will take effect.
Whether or not the effects of the stratospheric warming detonate into the lower atmosphere during the outlook period is unclear. If they do, this will serve to 'excite' the pattern of ridges and troughs ]resulting in height rises over Greenland.
For my money, we are likely to continue with the pattern of ridges and troughs that we see now, possibly with a hint that the last week of the month will start to to take effect;the impacts of the stratospheric warming with decreased momentum leading to a northward shift in the ridge with split flow. I have more confidence in more progressive blocking taking place during March. Organisers of the Cheltenham Festival (mid March), take note.
This statement has been typical of both you & john all Winter long & has lacked clarity for some of the regular posters on here ( the less seasoned ones shall we say)- you have both been touting this - through the GWO composites & John with the CPC model outlooks, however Height rises over Greenland cannot be compared with a true Greenland High-
It would help if you would clarify what your expecting- As I would put the correlation with the Current Pattern & a Greenland High developing pretty close to Zero, however the height rises typically seen over Southern greenland with the transient ridges coming out of the atlantic are different & slightly more achievable, although just as unlikely at the moment to be sustained for more than one day especially with the GLAAM levels decreasing-
For whatever reason the net effect thus far of the warming has been minimal, maybe more prevelant at 70n, but not at this lattitude- I suggest whatever propergates down now will not arrive with the big bang as some expected, but maybe having a weaker effect on the Westerlyness of the zonal wind-
I did suggest on more than one occasion to John that the CPC charts were going to be wrong, but the secondary replies I gave to his responses must have been overlooked-
Winter is Over- move on- get over it- the sustained cold never came ( surface stagnent surface air doesnt count)
March may herald some more snow- but it not the same-
Stewart- instead of posting the GWO composities of what we are seeing now ( & likely to be in the short term)- maybe post the 500mg Height anomalies for what your expecting day 7-10 or 10-15, at least thats a forecast then -
Gwo And Global Angular Momentum
in Teleconnections
Posted
This statement has been typical of both you & john all Winter long & has lacked clarity for some of the regular posters on here ( the less seasoned ones shall we say)- you have both been touting this - through the GWO composites & John with the CPC model outlooks, however Height rises over Greenland cannot be compared with a true Greenland High-
It would help if you would clarify what your expecting- As I would put the correlation with the Current Pattern & a Greenland High developing pretty close to Zero, however the height rises typically seen over Southern greenland with the transient ridges coming out of the atlantic are different & slightly more achievable, although just as unlikely at the moment to be sustained for more than one day especially with the GLAAM levels decreasing-
For whatever reason the net effect thus far of the warming has been minimal, maybe more prevelant at 70n, but not at this lattitude- I suggest whatever propergates down now will not arrive with the big bang as some expected, but maybe having a weaker effect on the Westerlyness of the zonal wind-
I did suggest on more than one occasion to John that the CPC charts were going to be wrong, but the secondary replies I gave to his responses must have been overlooked-
Winter is Over- move on- get over it- the sustained cold never came ( surface stagnent surface air doesnt count)
March may herald some more snow- but it not the same-
Stewart- instead of posting the GWO composities of what we are seeing now ( & likely to be in the short term)- maybe post the 500mg Height anomalies for what your expecting day 7-10 or 10-15, at least thats a forecast then -
S