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Steve Murr

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Everything posted by Steve Murr

  1. A real shock to the system at the end of this week as the 2c line hits scotland / NI - modified up a little bit as it heads SE but very chilly & Autumnal...
  2. @Blessed Weather Its not stratospheric driven changes but climate change driving tropospheric induced decoupling !
  3. Steve Murr

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    If the 2018 line was the 2010-2019 decadal average then the 4 decades you see pretty much show that the additional loss of ice as we move into the each decade is about the same - So the 2020-2029 ave would drop into the high 3S / low 4s S
  4. Jet moved about 5 degrees south- sadly we were on the wrong side of that 5 degrees
  5. Steve Murr

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Indeed ^^ however 2018 is close to the current decadal trend all be it slightly below The next 14 days are crucial towards the final position - with the last 2 days in particular producing some worrying numbers ....
  6. Hi @Singularity taking your posts with the detail thats been highlighted in them - it would seem the MJO ( & other forecasting tools within the GSDM ) havent been that successful through July - Taking your MJO plot for example which for the most of July sat in >1 amplitude phase 5 then this is the MJO composite Yes for the first half of July the pattern that actually occured was the total inverse of this - Also we hear of GLAAM making strong swings from negative to positive yet the nearest relative Teleconnection - The NAO has osciallated through nearly 7 orbits since late June - So how are you making a forecast for our locale based on an MJO that when analised with reality comes out the total opposite - & the commentary around GLAAM isnt in harmony with the 7 oscillations of the NAO - These global forecasts have a lot more relevence to the pacific & US - but much less so to the UK. Also as we edge towards autumn you many want to think to include the polar cell ( as already cited ) & its short term climate changes as its making significantly more impact on the globe than the ENSO / GWO signature. Look at this - A totally overwhelming anomaly - far greater than any changes in the above metrics So I irrespective of what the MJO plots show - macro managing the UK under the microscope V MJO plots just wont work - especially when the polar interference starts to kick in in a couple of weeks.. ( or sooner based on kara anomalies this summer )
  7. ENSO being Neutral this autumn will have far less effect that that immediate short terms changes ( < 15 years ) of climate change... Almost pointless including ENSO
  8. That the overall early formation of the PV will be weaker than usual - suggesting weaker westerlies ....
  9. Whilst some of us begin to break out of early hibernation- I noted todays 3 CFS runs for very late autumn indicating very weak stratospheric winds
  10. Gone black here in Brands hatch!
  11. squall line over Essex is back building towards the thames. huge convection to my North!
  12. Wow 10.9c here ATM coldest weather for ages feels like late october!
  13. Massive lightning just outside here at brands ! ( only 1 but lit up the whole sky )
  14. Just going on this post ( & others ) - Personally I wouldnt spend to much time looking at the GSDM as a forecasting tool for Autumn as its pretty unreliable after week 2 Plus for SON the ENSO signature is about as weak as it gets. - Also whats clearly lacking in the GSDM model is the interaction of the Hadley cell with the polar cell- All the data that comes from the model is driven by the tropics /MJO - yet the biggest rate of change is the pole especially the back end of summer / start of Autumn .. - So yes 'some' value can be had from the propergation of the MJO wave & any significant 'change' in terms of GLAAM - however if the mode sits within a pretty low amplitude what you going to forecast? - This Autumn the westerlies are going to be weak - This isnt driven by the tropics - its driven by the pole - in particular sea ice anomalies. This is the biggest single thing impacting Northern & NW Europe in Autumn. > Forget the GSDM because its clear its only really useful when there is an event that creates change that the models initally dont pick up on - however this doesnt create the base state of the atmosphere - it just creates 'influence & change' So note im not dismissing it - but since 2010 ( maybe even 2007 ) its framework & how its set up has become less relative ... There is a new teleconnection in town .....
  15. Negative would support a colder winter Early analogue 1977..
  16. Steve Murr

    Need Help On The Site/forum?

    @Paul hi mate someone just put one of those yellow sticky things on my page & I hit the cross any way to retrieve it? TIA
  17. Steve Murr

    Arctic melt Season 2018

    Next 2-4 weeks to challenge & possibly surpass 2012 in terms of record lows.. Also -I will be doing a post in Late Sept to highlight what effects the Kara / berings Ice loss have on our autumnal wind flows - Infact October could be the month with the biggest net effects ( for the UK ) in terms of ice loss induced climate change
  18. The lowest QBO on record in 70 years.. Can it recover from -29 to a positive in 5 months - remember though the impacts can be as early as Oct on the vortex -
  19. All models over the last 24 hours ( especially the ECM ) have repositioned that high slightly further East allowing more of a southerly index - Also, gradually similar to July any unsettled weather is being pushes back- Still expecting to see temps North of 35c in this hot spell with the record attempt still lurking in the 'potential' background...
  20. The threat of the record going this year has been very real & the dates earmarked 5th / 6th havent really changed in the last few days - we could still do with more of a southerly component - but we are homing in on a possible shot at 39c. Last week we missed due to the upper air being far east & timings - this time around availability of heat looks more significant & the source certainly 4-5c hotter....
  21. I reakon Thurs / Friday will be good for you Tom 23 then onto 25-26...
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