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Steve Murr

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Everything posted by Steve Murr

  1. On the tarmac @Gatwick- ECM looks poorly resolved @120 over scandi- out of kilter with GFS / UKMO blend- but post day 5 still gets there The wave that the models have at about 168/192 coming west through Europe is perfect timing to reinforce the cold -- Also bringing heavy snow from the east- something that never happens these days- If any of these model land them the snow totals for the UK will be epic s
  2. If everything stays the same Expect the amber warnings up Thurs ish - Then poss red sat / sun -
  3. Morning All Off on hols now- will be dropping in though - As of today 04:30z the best & coldest overnight runs ever modelled since the dawn of the internet with the best highlighted below... S
  4. lol - High res GEM @Retron @Nick L @TEITS @bluearmy @lorenzo @nick sussex Looking at the GEM anomaly [email protected] NW france / SE UK has biggest -VE in the NH @204 at -16 to -20c...
  5. If you was to mock up the snowiest Easterly you could imagine then the GEM 00z has saved you the job - feet of snow in England on that run..
  6. Cold due Sun AM - therefor banked Thurs 12z for 100% security but Weds 12s will still be a strong signal 80-90% if no change-
  7. Yep the mean now out to 240 down to -8c so when you see the ENS graph its going to be sub -8c for at least 6 days etc etc The upgrades are extending well into the 200s now with the formidable Greenland block....
  8. GFS maxes for London next week Sun 0c Mon -1c Tues -3c Weds -3c. !!!! Rural areas probs about 1-2 less tues / weds ( Stanstead was -8c on 12 jan 1987 in -20c air ) So -5 seems to be the landing zone...
  9. The nose of the Eastery at just 78 hr now The chris fawkes tweet just underpinning what we already new...
  10. nice Also the operational 1 day behind the mean for -10c line! ignore that op slower to bring in the cold !
  11. if ECM lands then 40-50cm widely over Kent 70-80 over the downs- snow widespread elsewhere East facing coasts - but streamers penetrating way inland also Ireland hit 30cm in an easterly the other year - S
  12. watching the pool of -28c air SE Scandi @168 - The wave associated with that is heading SE...
  13. ECM is better but not quite there with the flow allignment over scandi @96- but at least ita on the move !
  14. Use meteociel GFS ensemble click on tabeaux then click the UK map to east kent shows you all the ENS temps the ascendent
  15. The coldest GFS ensemble ( For east kent ) is -18.8c @T183 & 186... ( this is the 180 chart ) Thats only 1c less than 12 1987.... the max that day was -7c in the SE
  16. now look at that clustering at day 10/11/12 - Thats a good grouping indicating the iberian low slides east...
  17. No, although of course the further west you go the weather becomes slightly more broken--
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