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Steve Murr

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Steve Murr last won the day on November 21

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  1. Looking Great on the ECM watching for the ridge & its angle at 168
  2. I will login to Mogreps & have a look now. Its not on the menu any more
  3. Yes of course Another rule of GFS failure. Energy separation - Watch those lows move apart in the coming runs allowing more cold in- The cold overall from the NE is slightly moderated due to the secondary system that develops just SW of Svalbard ( all models underdeveloped that one ) - But this system ( as noted on UkMO 144 ) could come in useful later as it scoops up even colder air...
  4. So following the evolution from the 06z into 12z ( 06z with its progressive eastward bias ) results in a swing to cold of about 6-7 degrees @850 at the 222 timeline....
  5. Lets compare the 162 12z V the 168 12z Hum spot the huge difference with the cold distribution & pressure to the North..... Ukmo looking lovely again -
  6. Look at its performance yesterday 144>120 today it speaks volumes--
  7. The model is being dismissed because of its track record is useless. It has nothing to do with what I want. Every single year since 2005 I sit here dissecting every single run. So don't you think in 14 years > 56 Winter months + Nov & approx 1700 runs of the 06z I wont have gleaned some info. The model will be wrong- Just like the examples Ive highlighted above & from before & every single year. Its plain to see here you are just being deliberate in trying to derail the thread because of your agenda. Please just leave it at that. Todays GFS 06z 168 for reference.
  8. I cannot believe the total memory loss of the same old people here, thats the same ones posting the same replies as they do every year - defending the GFS when its going to be wrong. When you have UKMO aligned to ECM & ECM mean at 120 they are NEVER trumped by an out of kilter GFS especially the 06z which is like comparing a pedigree with a stray. So for all the neutrals who wonder if its just opinion or is it sound education over a few years lets take yesterday as a prime example of how bad the 06Z GFS is - UKMO 144 yest V 120 Today That is a superb match across day 6 down to Day 5. Metronomic consistency with minimal adjustments all around the Globe. Now look at the runt of the litter the GFS. Same timeline. Yesterday at 144 No Greenland High, No decent arc of Cold coming through Scandi UK in southerlies -- Look how much this model has changed in that short time span... * So if yesterday was awful at 144 with no clue of the pattern then the probability is todays 144>168 is the same bin fodder How anyone who indicates they follow the models can put any credibility on such a pants model (06z) - means to me they are deliberate in their attempts to derail the thread. Back to the original well proven point * If the 06z goes off on a tangent through 144 then scrap it *
  9. Yep. Its a shower of s*it post 144. Its been proving it since 2009. Feb 1 2009 Actual V Jan 25 06z run to 162. Could post up the same old trash runs from every year but cant be bothered. But why dont you take a picture of todays 168 & 192 GFS & compare it 7 days down the line....
  10. Remember the age old commentary for the 06z if it goes off on a tangent V the Euros its generally fit for the bin. Today is no exception, I think ive made the same post regarding this run for the past 7-8 years. 06z & less so 18z are generally bin fodder unless they stay close to the general theme. I dont get why every year we go through the same emotional rollercoaster until the first Euro comes out....... FOLLOW THE UKMO- I would bet my house that for NW europe it is the most accurate of the big 3 at 120 & 144
  11. Superb UKMO this morning! But key features in the extended from ICON / GFS is the secondary ridging North post 168 > 192 GFS implodes the vortex with a QTR
  12. Does increase polar heights Early Jan & we lose Euro slug--
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