Steve Murr

UKMO is more amplified however they are both now 4-5 days away so I would expect it to be fairly close... @Paul Yes Indian Summer put on hold then back in post day 8.. A very amplified pattern away from the traditional Autumn zonal pattern setting in- Long may it continue...

Deep scandi trough is the total inverse of the Sept pressure anomalies observed over the last 10 yrs or so.... Bye bye Indian summer....

The models when each run initialises will make adjustments in the track due to the changes from run to run between the all important variables of which there are many - Difference in initialised pressure V T6 forecast, Differences in motion & track V forecast - also crucially how the steering currents is being handled as well as how are features that may well impact the steering currents - how are they being modelled - so there are many variables as well things that cannot be forecast like land interaction & how this jogs & wobbles track. The reason Dorian has had some much coverage around its track is of course the fact that even a 30-40 mile correction west would have large scale impacts on Florida. Luckily the saving grace was when she was stalled out over Freeport the 'jog/ wobble' that we saw as she moved offshore was directly North which probably had a small impact net maybe 20 miles further East. Speaking generally if hurricanes develop deeper than models then they lift out poleward faster / earlier - so should she redevelop that may pull her away from the Carolinas faster... For reference current pressure is 958MB

Dorian gathering strength once again - eye beginning to clear - Moving NNW NHC going for CAT 2 however based on the sat presentation it could be another under estimation....

00z GFS corrects a fair way SW towards the central Florida coast... Pressure back down to 912 from 916 earlier..

Remember guys its also the inertia momentum on the system post when the models expect her to stall...

Their Christmas tree is up early...

Would be unprecidented sub 900 but at the rate of change it could occur this eve...

No worries mate

With gusts over 200MPH & a storm surge +20feet the whole Island will be flattened. Around 17k people stayed which suggests there will be a lot of fatalities...

918MB ...

Could be worst possible scenario for Freeport... Also models today edging west again- Very interesting 12z suite to come...

Big loss yesterday -42k

951 MB!!!! Very close on CAT 4 now...

Loss of 17 yesterday so yes still dribs & drabs of loss at the moment -