Steve Murr

Assuming thats from the ECM 46 that almost secures it being colder 😀😀

Our next window is really day 11-12 Getting towards last chance saloon though-

Amazing ECM - record breaking high pressure in terms of intense thickness - Could we reach 70F !!!

Ive just been posted to West wickham on a temporary move so I will be doing the Jail Lane run every day up past keston ponds !

I was cleaning the car about 30 mins ago & felt a tremor in the force - Must be something brewing in the models.. ( I love warm & sunny weather ) but a switch in the next 10 days could mean a last chance meeting with old man Winter...

Yea GEM feels very retrograde.... Models edge towards something more exciting in the day 9-10 range, but also nice & warm before then..

16 PTB & OP ECM @168 Indicating the overall evolution could be dovetailed together..

PTB 16 ECM OP quite similar I would imagine pretty much every winter lover would come out of hibernation & make an exception if those charts come true- Mar 19 colder that all winter months lol

Pretty cold dewpoints on that chart would make it feel pretty cold - A clear stand off - ECM V GFS

UKMO 144 provides a chilly Easterly flow at 144 with -4c air But still dry & nice weather generally- just not record breaking -

12z out to 186 looks like the 06z control!

Control looks good as well 192 onwards !

As winter begins to wain we must remind outselves 'peak' cold availability from the N/NE/E is still on tap for another 3-4 weeks- so although the suns height does temper any daytime low maxima - we are still in the game. Im drawn to the nice sight of the PV stretched south into Scandi around day 9 & this should continue to be out focus if we believe 18/19 can squeeze another cold spell - 06z was close but no cigar....

Hum FV3 downgrades the warm flow - -8c just to our SE at 138 Almost a good chart that-

Both the trendsetters have the trigger low nicely positioned early on (120-144 ) like the UKMO -