Steve Murr

A real shock to the system at the end of this week as the 2c line hits scotland / NI - modified up a little bit as it heads SE but very chilly & Autumnal...

@Blessed Weather Its not stratospheric driven changes but climate change driving tropospheric induced decoupling !

If the 2018 line was the 2010-2019 decadal average then the 4 decades you see pretty much show that the additional loss of ice as we move into the each decade is about the same - So the 2020-2029 ave would drop into the high 3S / low 4s S

Jet moved about 5 degrees south- sadly we were on the wrong side of that 5 degrees

Indeed ^^ however 2018 is close to the current decadal trend all be it slightly below The next 14 days are crucial towards the final position - with the last 2 days in particular producing some worrying numbers ....

see edits -

Hi @Singularity taking your posts with the detail thats been highlighted in them - it would seem the MJO ( & other forecasting tools within the GSDM ) havent been that successful through July - Taking your MJO plot for example which for the most of July sat in >1 amplitude phase 5 then this is the MJO composite Yes for the first half of July the pattern that actually occured was the total inverse of this - Also we hear of GLAAM making strong swings from negative to positive yet the nearest relative Teleconnection - The NAO has osciallated through nearly 7 orbits since late June - So how are you making a forecast for our locale based on an MJO that when analised with reality comes out the total opposite - & the commentary around GLAAM isnt in harmony with the 7 oscillations of the NAO - These global forecasts have a lot more relevence to the pacific & US - but much less so to the UK. Also as we edge towards autumn you many want to think to include the polar cell ( as already cited ) & its short term climate changes as its making significantly more impact on the globe than the ENSO / GWO signature. Look at this - A totally overwhelming anomaly - far greater than any changes in the above metrics So I irrespective of what the MJO plots show - macro managing the UK under the microscope V MJO plots just wont work - especially when the polar interference starts to kick in in a couple of weeks.. ( or sooner based on kara anomalies this summer )

ENSO being Neutral this autumn will have far less effect that that immediate short terms changes ( < 15 years ) of climate change... Almost pointless including ENSO

That the overall early formation of the PV will be weaker than usual - suggesting weaker westerlies ....

Whilst some of us begin to break out of early hibernation- I noted todays 3 CFS runs for very late autumn indicating very weak stratospheric winds

Gone black here in Brands hatch!

squall line over Essex is back building towards the thames. huge convection to my North!

rogue cell

Wow 10.9c here ATM coldest weather for ages feels like late october!

Massive lightning just outside here at brands ! ( only 1 but lit up the whole sky )