Steve Murr

ECM day 9 mild southerlies but what at day 11/12....

Afternoon - Crimbo period looking interesting - but at this stage a mix of all the right reasons as well as all wrong reasons! Anyway UKMO 96 looks interesting >> Possibly some wintryness associated with the back edge !

Plus its the NH..... UKMO will forever outperform the GFS in Europe > Another example today with ECM / UKMO identical at 120 V the random GFS. Anyone putting GFS above UKMO for Europe has been wearing horses blinkers for years. Next we will be rating the 06z GFS .....

12z 210 At this stage I think everyone would take this... Very similar to ECM 00z

I checked this morning the 168 was pretty strong zonal 120-144 tonight cold but the zonal train is coming through- chilly but snow reserved for the high Hills in the North.

Its interesting we should have a poll what would you rather have - models out to day 6 with 100% accuracy & no deviation > So with this scenario you there would be no phantom cold spells just the reality of whats going to be - Or the current way out to day 16 with the twists & turns of each day > The ups & downs > trying to second guess the models. Id rather have scenario 2 everytime ! ICON 12z pretty chilly all the way out to 170 from 130

The same UK model that just wiped out every other model that pointed to cold. After all these years dismissing the UKMO is in my books total stupidity > Also how can you compare a day 6 to a day 10. Great logic that We have had quite a few cold / snowy spells where the UKMO has been on board but not the GFS / ECM but never a cold spell with UKMO not on board with GFS / ECM pointing to cold

Yes this was noted earlier. The UKMO 144 continued yesterdays DEVELOPING potential of polar air spreading south > the 120 chart shows a ridge just nudging up to Iceland to amplify the flow over the UK which then leads to that cold air day 6. GFS 06z is now on the same page at 114 although it hasn't amplified the ridge as much > however continue that trending & it will catch up. A pretty wintry outlook for the NW / Scotland & NI next week > judging by whats on offer they could extract the most out of a pattern that isnt great overall sub 8 days....

A long way out but UKMO has that slider scenario at 168 - Sliding into cold air in situ over Scotland ( polar air will have filtered in by then ) Something to consider - * Edited *

ECM operational 192 looks great if its a train of wintry showers you like A cheshire gap special!

Try looking up the word 'developing' Developing polar flow...

UKMO 144 same as ICON > cold polar flow developing for Election day...

Possible Snow showers for the NE Mon Afternoon-

A decent ICON to start the afternoon * Watch out for the sliding low day 6 *

My first school trip was to la clusaz !!! Onwards to the ECM !