Steve Murr

Zonal wind reduction forecast gathering pace !!!

Yes a couple more runs & it will get the slide more defined- still in the GFs unknown zone atm- its like where shall I place that energy- I know EVERYWHERE...

24 hours of the GFS Image 1 - 12z T150 today Image 2 - 12z T174 yesterday Note the clear move to the -6c & -8c isotherms covering a wider area & them both being closer to the UK... Possible snow event in the offering as the atlantic approaches....

ECM huge Scandi block & a possibly big wintry event @168

Just look how far we have come with the ridge extension in 48 hours 12z today V 12z 2 days ago

^^^ Yes remember just 24-36 hours ago there was no Scandi High- now we see one developing The fact we see one on the cards shows how vulnerable the jet is ATM

Glorious out there 4 hours of garden clearing & prep for the winter .... Also unlucky for some GFS P13 for Saturday eve

yes @Kirkcaldy Weather Interestingly P5 demonstrates that the entrance to Nov ( poss even last week of Oct ) is the tipping point for continental flows- Before the tipping point - get an Easterly through central Europe & cool air warms as it travels west - However now in Nov even the most modest of cold pools can develop into -10c air as it decends- See P5 covering 4 days

Yet another GFS run- yet more Scandi heights recovered... The -8c Line digging further & further South into Northern Europe thats a pretty cold chart for the ESE @192..

32-34 CM Feb 1991 & Feb 2009

So a 'slight' moderation of the cold today because the CAA heads further west, then winds swing more NE- Notice over the last 24 hours the residual heights that remain north of the jet have grown over Scandi - A great winter time evolution, but to early for cold from an easterly just yet- Note though the cold pool growing as a result over Scandi

Another record has gone today- We are currently today at the lowest ever ice extent in recorded history - surpassing 2016 in terms of recovery...

Yes no probs If things pan out as usual the residual heights could be underestimated...

Hi Mike the most important ingredient to getting ( & sustaining ) a 4 wave pattern is to have high pressure over the pole for the ridges to engage with - like weather historys post earlier- If you have low heights you will never sustain any 4 waves because at least 2 will be transient --

Its 100% a toppler - it was never going to be anything else- However there my be enough residual heights to the NNE to steer the jet SE which is exactly what the ECM tries to do-