SMU

Having watched the GFS / UKMO for about 20 years now its clear the amount of times GFS > UKMO / ECM is low. > You know when its going to be wrong, when it throws out radical changes from run to run scattering lows everywhere. > Equally the only time GFS wins is when theres been atlantic pressure & the model runs with metronomic consistency. Looking at the ECM its been pretty rough lately, the modelling of the Easterly was fine UKMO was good. So its really a straight out battle. After another consistent 06Z run which is infact a bit more amplified. I make the GFS favourite. just about 60-70%. S

A lot of people move to aviemore > very popular

Transititon to sleet & snow tomorrow eve **

A smidge To far south... Thats a mid kent clipper for NE winds.

Lowest ENS now for NW kent is T57 -9.6 !

look at the Siberian cold pushing SW Theta charts amazing Coldest 850 chart I have ever seen -40c over Siberia & -32 over Svalbard that will help the ice!

The models originally just tried to shunt all the energy south, however as now T120-144 has approached so the energy coming south is a bit weaker because theres a wave of cold pushing west- Net net the 2 entities meet over the UK Fri, in order for the UK to get snow from the front edge ( & indeed all a front sweeping down ) we need entrenched cold & ideally sub -6c uppers from the continent > on this run the parameters are satisfied...

poof atlantic gone ! Greenland high back !

Brilliant 18z so far to 150 A lot of snow !

GFS Is a very very close to JMA now > 9/10 match, just the track at 192 on GFS IS a smidge more SE ! other that very very good run!

Good Eve FWIW I believe the 120 18z has the spot on solution ( which is rare ) it shows a realistic balance & equilibrium of energy moving south over the UK whilst an Easterly develops over the low countries...

The first snow shows up in SE Eng 7pm Momday evening & its a transition then to about midnight Tues...

GFS 18z 60 V 66 12z More snow

Im not sure GFS is picking up > so is the ECM now Lets wait till tomorrows 12s with the Euro 4 : Harmonie etc. The fax chart is very good though for Tues

ICON T27 10pm tomorrow changed over to some reds already now

Just wanted to add the 06z ENS for GEFS V 12z ENS for GEFS ( 06z First ) The key timleline is Tues Eve ( 12z T60 - 72 ) which was 66-78 on the 06z Look at the increase in -9s & top end -8s !

Thats your snow for Winter done.

Thats the band edging back NW & just to add southampton seeing snow earlier

Biggin Hill just hit 0c / -1c Here 1.3c slowley dropping. Keeping an eye on the kent PPN its nudging back NW

The best run of the ECM for the SE all be it its toss for the UK from 192 But note the easterly pick up at 168...

ECM > Sick of looking at every run. Progressive every time. 2 days ago it had -5c in the SE now its -9c. Model award of the eve goes to JMA

No I get that- Whats happening which is good news is the low over the countries is being modelled further & further South East & Slightly more acute That helps us 2 fold because the -8s / -9s are nearer but also theres less sea fetch to modify the air but enough to keep the streamers going ( I think you need 25 miles over sea to get enough track for a streamer )

Hum... The 12z would be classed as an upgrade for our area- A patch of -9c in there > We havent seen sub -8c since Feb 18....

Temps have crashed here 1.9c