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Everything posted by bobbydog
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Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just been browsing through the archives and out of curiosity, bearing in mind the ideas and hints being put forward that we might see something colder beyond the range of the main models, I focused on 1990-91. What I found is that the hemispheric profile and weather patterns are remarkably similar to now and what is being modelled on the GFS. (I recall xmas '90 being wet and mild and January being cold wet and windy) Beyond that 2 week range, we ended up with high pressure over us (similar to what the Met Office are hinting at - frost and fog for the latter part of January) We also had a displacement warming, not a particularly strong one either, very similar to what is being modelled now... I know it's a long shot and people would rather not wait but @feb1991blizzard didn't pick his name at random.... -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GFS seems stuck on the rabbit... While we wait, here's the next frame on the previous 12z run- massive differences at day 10... No fine margins there, this is not resolved by a long way... -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
i'm well aware of that... its an example of the possibilities still open. you might not be giving up on winter- but some are... im not... -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Strange.... The GFS is showing snow, somewhere in the UK, on 12 of the 14 days it covers. Virtually every part gets some, with some significant snowfall shown. for example- Even my snow starved location is shown to get it on 6 days out of 14... Yet people seem to be giving up on winter already. looks to me like we're all in with a good shout... I'd be happy with just one snowman's worth, so my youngest daughter can build her first ever. (she's 10 in March!) -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
or if people remembered that the weather controls the models... not the other way round.... -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
a couple of points... solar activity doesn't work that quickly... so let's leave that for now. a white christmas was only briefly on the cards and who really expects one anyway?... (though its still on for some...) in reality, the upper atmosphere is in chaos. there's nothing "zonal" in the output, the professionals have stated how much uncertainty there is due to this. short term, the south of the country looks to be having a near miss but its still game on for the north - for xmas anyway... beyond that, we have a potential warming - (someone said earlier it's only a displacement - it is in this frame but its only at the beginning stage. give it a chance lol) don't worry. this winter still has a few surprises up it's sleeve yet... -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
bobbydog replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A long way off I know but at the end of week 2, the GFS is fairly similar in the overall pattern to the CFS (regarding the siberian high). GFS- CFS- Look what happens a week later on the CFS- -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
bobbydog replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Probably... but it's also much more likely in January or February... -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
bobbydog replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hmm... A little too much desperation in here on only day 5 of winter. December snow is fairly rare, yet a few people have already had a decent amount. Some of the most memorable snowy winters didn't get going until January or even February. Even the famous '62-'63 winter started its main event on boxing day, currently outside of the range of the models... Anyway, the GFS is throwing up some far from "uninteresting" scenarios. This storm we are expecting in a couple of days looks impressive on this chart- this is the wind gust chart for the same time- further on at 216 hrs (probably too far out to be accurate anyway), this chart looks fairly unimpressive for most of the UK- However, this is what that would translate to- Anyway, I'm certainly not giving up on winter yet... -
Hi MIA, they updated the website a while back and I discovered my link didn't work. After a little digging, I found it again. Try this- IMS Snow and Ice Products USICECENTER.GOV U.S. National Ice Center's Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) section for daily Northern Hemisphere snow and ice products.
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
bobbydog replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Hairdressers car... -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
bobbydog replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Very true. (Though I wouldn't call most 4x4's "off road) I've owned Land Rovers for 9 years and I'm well aware that though I have more traction, when it comes to braking on ice and snow, it's the same as any other vehicle. You have to know how to drive them... -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
bobbydog replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Not necessarily, the end you refer to 'might' allow convective showers to start, like further north. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
bobbydog replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Admittedly not much, but you might see something falling out of the sky in the next couple of hours... -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
bobbydog replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Ok, winds taking on a slightly more easterly direction. Light snow showers feeding through to west and south Western areas of our region. Some who thought they would get nothing might get a dusting at least. For me, it's probably going to need a Thames streamer to fire up. Keeping a close eye on the Thames estuary.... ?️ -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
bobbydog replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Hi lottie, everything you said is true, except I was talking about Capel near Dorking, apparently there's a Capel near Folkestone as well Our Capel nearly always gets snow when we get none and its only a few miles up the road. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
bobbydog replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Nearly spat my beer out when I read the first line of your post...