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Everything posted by bobbydog
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Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
bobbydog replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
bobbydog replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Well, not for cold. It will be cold. Snow however... -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
bobbydog replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The problem is, there is no forcing to disrupt the current hemispheric pattern. Even the strat vortex is a feeble mess. This limpet high pressure over us, whilst it is bringing frost and fog, is becoming about as welcome as Prince Andrew at a prom party... -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
bobbydog replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The divergence happens around 144hrs the low sinking into Europe doesn't have enough energy to keep going and the jet then fires up and flattens our HP. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
bobbydog replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ok... commence toy launch sequence.... (It actually doesn't end badly but it's a long slog to get where it's going...) -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
bobbydog replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not such a good run on the GFS but hold on to those toys for now.... -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
bobbydog replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think that HP centred over the Russia/Kazakhstan border is the key here. (In this scenario). I've seen this modelled previously. It forces the jet into Europe, the euro high retrogresses and the TPV is forced through the gap, pushing a big cold pool with it. Its a long way off but it's a plausible evolution. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022
bobbydog replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I always think, winter model watching is like watching England in the World Cup. We go 1-0 up early on, then the opposition equalises in the second half. We get numerous chances and shots on goal, only for them to be saved or called offside. We then sit frustratingly through extra time, only to lose on penalties.... Thankfully, we've had a lot more epic winters than we've won world cups so the chances are much higher... "They think it's all over..." Not yet.... -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022
bobbydog replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So am I... I (partly) agree with you regarding January, it's highly unlikely there will be anything particularly wintry for the next week or two but after that, some models are showing an evolution to more substantial winter weather. Even when the "building blocks" are in place, it's a fine balance to hit the jackpot on our little island but we can never discount any chance of it happening. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022
bobbydog replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It shows your statement to be wrong though- and several of the GEFS are showing cold solutions also. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022
bobbydog replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To be fair Rob, it's "the hunt for cold" because it's what the vast majority of people are looking for in winter. (Though it should really be called "the hunt for snow"). Therfore most posts will naturally lean towards cold prospects. If a route to cold wintry weather appears in the charts, in a country more prone to Atlantic westerlies, it's fair to assume that people will highlight this, even though most of the time it fails to materialise. (The "hunt for mild" would be like looking for a bit of hay in a haystack ) On the other hand, if the foreseeable outlook is mild, it is still the model thread and as you say, posting charts showing mild weather shouldn't be a problem to anyone and are perfectly entitled to be in this thread, as much as any showing cold. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If I get a quantity greater than 3 snowflakes depth, I'll be mentioning it... And proudly displaying my snow-ant I'll build... -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
HFS?... Is that the Hope Forecast System?... -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A point well made. The disconnect is key here. Many people are noting the 'raging PV' which normally would keep us on the zonal train, (hence the despondency) we don't have a raging strat to match. Hence why the forecasts have gone down the toilet Therefore anyone forecasting a dull rest of winter, don't be surprised if your toilet gets blocked by a snowmans poo before winter is out.... -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi Don, I suppose, with the jet wavering over us like in the current set up, it only needed to be slightly further south a little more more often, to knock the CET down a few degrees. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm glad someone is paying attention -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ok, not sure you've read my posts correctly, or maybe you've just missed the context. The point was, that January may look "bleak" but with a very similar hemispheric profile throughout January 1991, we entered February with one of the most epic cold spells in memory -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There's been a few negative posts over the last few pages and one or two are just on a wind-up... Whilst the output is not showing much to write home about for a week or so, the bigger picture is that it could well be laying the groundwork for something epic. Time will tell and there's no need for anyone to give up hope yet... -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ok, 2nd January 1991- very similar to now. 20th January 1991- horrible euro high, big pv over Canada/greenland. 7th February 1991- One of the most memorable snow events I've seen in all of my 52 years. Expect the unexpected.... -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=5&month=2&year=1991&hour=0&type=era&map=0&type=era®ion=nh&mode=0I can't believe the negativity in here. What's being modelled is almost a 'copy and paste' of January 1991 Have a look if you like- WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Archives Reanalyse ECMWF ERA 5 de 1950 à maintenant Archives Reanalyse ECMWF ERA 5 de 1950 à maintenant I'm certainly not writing anything off yet... -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
bobbydog replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion