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bobbydog

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Everything posted by bobbydog

  1. Well I never...! IDO being optimistic??!! Dust off the sledges!! Winter's back on! ?
  2. It probably won't but why depress yourself watching the same old rubbish churned out by the models. It does change, it can take time, so why not concentrate on real life in the meantime? Weather/model watching can become an obsession. It's good to take a break sometimes... ?
  3. If you're thanking someone for relaying their weather-related thoughts on a weather forum, you will have a lot of thanking to do... ? On the other hand, if you are just throwing a bit of sarcasm about, a Model Forum Host is probably not the best person to aim it at... ?
  4. It would be a memorable storm for all the wrong reasons....
  5. I know. You can't polish a turd But you can put glitter on it... ?
  6. Positives..... It won't be mild, southerly tracking jet, No European blocking. *awaits the 'negatives' posts.... Does there have to be any?....
  7. Maybe there is some hope for this winter. Pure speculation of course but maybe the GFS is showing us the route out of this "zonal" rut. We have a very strong, monster of a trop PV in the latter stages of the run- However, with what's going on 'up there' It's enough to de-stabilise the PV causing it to rip itself apart by the end of the run. You just never know....
  8. Ah, no, they only mentioned "considerable uncertainty". It was me who mentioned snow. The GFS has shown the possibility so it's not off the table...
  9. It's been a common theme recently. It's in the first line in the 27th Dec to 5th Jan forecast. They obviously don't see much consistency in the models either.
  10. I wouldn't put too much faith in the model output beyond a week at most. When the world leading Met Office are using terms like "considerable uncertainty" in their own forecasts, it could go in any direction... even snow... (We live in hope...)
  11. Going by the 11 year (roughly) cycle, we are at the equivalent of 2008/2009 by timescale and we have surpassed the space-age record minima this year. There was a decent snowfall in february 2009 and 2009/10 and 2010/11 were two of the snowiest winters I have experienced since living in the south east (30 years) after moving down from the north east. Obviously there are no fixed rules where the weather is concerned but we are long overdue a decent spell of snowy weather. Bear in mind some of the most memorable snowfalls have only really lasted a week or two...
  12. Oh well... into hibernation then. Theres always next year...

    1. Show previous comments  4 more
    2. lassie23

      lassie23

      realistically june the 5th is the cut off point

    3. Katrine Basso

      Katrine Basso

      It is beginning to feel more like autumn.  Feels like our cold weather has been stolen.:oldlaugh:

    4. lassie23

      lassie23

      get the cold into eastern europe first, and watch it stay there all winter

  13. Not great is it? I had some optimism for this winter due to the deep solar minimum we have entered.
  14. Nothing particularly of note in today's runs, apart from a few snowflakes in F.I. Still plenty of uncertainty, so lots of scope for change.
  15. That's not how it works. I can't even be bothered....
  16. All is not lost... Getting toasty up there...
  17. Just to reiterate what Carinthian said regarding model volatility and of course the fickle nature of the weather itself, here's a snapshot of the 00z- It shows a countrywide snow event lasting a few days. However unlikely it is, it at very least shows we are not necessarily stuck in a mild rut for the rest of winter. Keep the faith- things can and do change at very short notice....
  18. Fortunately, I remember the seasonals 'signposting' mild for winter 2010...
  19. Why all the doom and gloom about F.I.? The trop vortex is showing no signs of getting itself together, The colder 850's are creeping ever closer, And the strat, which is always more reliable in modelling terms, is showing a potential warming event. This only takes us up to the 3rd of December! Give winter a chance, it hasn't even started yet....
  20. The PV IS feeling the squeeze by 180hrs at 30hpa. Long may it continue....
  21. Stop worrying... Who would have known.... Dec 9 2010 Dec 19 2010 Que sera sera.... ?
  22. Hi Mike, in my experience, long range weather forecasts are often 'revised' at short notice... ? From what I've seen, the teleconnections are a little 'unusual' this year. I don't expect this winter (or the next...) to conform to our usual expectations...
  23. Well... after a busy year so far, I haven't been on here much and whilst I've not really been keeping up, I have been watching the CFS for general long-term trends, some of which have been spectacular for (northern hemisphere) winter. What's the general consensus?
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