bobbydog

February 18, 2022

Morning all, Just been woken by the wind to find we now have a red warning....

Going to be fun at work - in an open yard full of fencing products, surrounded by tall oak trees.....

February 17, 2022

Arpege has 80mph gusts widely across the South East around midday....

February 17, 2022

I reckon it could be busy at work next week...

I work for a fencing supplies company...

January 31, 2022

Well there's still a little bit of hope left, we're still in with a chance of a nuclear winter....

January 19, 2022

19 minutes ago, weathercold said:

You simply cannot dress these charts up, absolutely awful for cold and snow.

Well, not for cold. It will be cold.

Snow however...

January 17, 2022

The problem is, there is no forcing to disrupt the current hemispheric pattern.

Even the strat vortex is a feeble mess.

This limpet high pressure over us, whilst it is bringing frost and fog, is becoming about as welcome as Prince Andrew at a prom party...

January 15, 2022

3 minutes ago, johncam said:

Absolutely no consistency from GFS at all

The divergence happens around 144hrs

the low sinking into Europe doesn't have enough energy to keep going and the jet then fires up and flattens our HP.

January 15, 2022

Ok... commence toy launch sequence....

(It actually doesn't end badly but it's a long slog to get where it's going...)

January 15, 2022

Not such a good run on the GFS but hold on to those toys for now....

January 12, 2022

9 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

You aren’t reading the hemispheric pattern because that’s precisely happening as we go forward.

BFTP

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not seeing much evidence for that personally, as any retrogression seems to coincide with a further build in pressure over the Azores / Iberia, which prevents a southerly undercutting jet.

I think that HP centred over the Russia/Kazakhstan border is the key here. (In this scenario). I've seen this modelled previously. It forces the jet into Europe, the euro high retrogresses and the TPV is forced through the gap, pushing a big cold pool with it.

Its a long way off but it's a plausible evolution.

January 4, 2022

I always think, winter model watching is like watching England in the World Cup.

We go 1-0 up early on, then the opposition equalises in the second half. We get numerous chances and shots on goal, only for them to be saved or called offside. We then sit frustratingly through extra time, only to lose on penalties....

Thankfully, we've had a lot more epic winters than we've won world cups so the chances are much higher...

"They think it's all over..."

Not yet....

January 4, 2022

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Look forward to seeing this evolve …

So am I...

I (partly) agree with you regarding January, it's highly unlikely there will be anything particularly wintry for the next week or two but after that, some models are showing an evolution to more substantial winter weather. Even when the "building blocks" are in place, it's a fine balance to hit the jackpot on our little island but we can never discount any chance of it happening.

January 4, 2022

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Oh sorry …the good old CFS - dished out during desperate times like this If only it was accurate.

It shows your statement to be wrong though- and several of the GEFS are showing cold solutions also.

January 4, 2022

1 hour ago, weathercold said:

There are zero building blocks to cold across any NWP output currently. No point in trying to spin it any other way. Absolutely dire for the heart of winter. Would be amazed if Jan doesn’t come in above average temp wise.

Zero?... Any NWP?...

January 3, 2022

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

IMHO there shouldnt be a "hunt for cold" thread... it should be about what the models are actually showing whatever that might be. I know in the past they have tried 2 threads, one for hunting cold and one for reality, but the reality one sadly didnt get much traffic. Some of us are here all the year round and are interested in reality, not fantasy.

To be fair Rob, it's "the hunt for cold" because it's what the vast majority of people are looking for in winter. (Though it should really be called "the hunt for snow"). Therfore most posts will naturally lean towards cold prospects.

If a route to cold wintry weather appears in the charts, in a country more prone to Atlantic westerlies, it's fair to assume that people will highlight this, even though most of the time it fails to materialise. (The "hunt for mild" would be like looking for a bit of hay in a haystack )

On the other hand, if the foreseeable outlook is mild, it is still the model thread and as you say, posting charts showing mild weather shouldn't be a problem to anyone and are perfectly entitled to be in this thread, as much as any showing cold.

January 2, 2022

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

not any any accumulating quantity worth mentioning though.

If I get a quantity greater than 3 snowflakes depth, I'll be mentioning it...

And proudly displaying my snow-ant I'll build...

January 2, 2022

Just now, Ali1977 said:

HFS is really close to getting some heights to our NE at 168

HFS?...

Is that the Hope Forecast System?...

January 2, 2022

42 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just sensing this winter will keep us on our toes, whilst we maintain the strat / trop disconnect. As we saw over christmas there was major uncertainty how things may pan out, and I read not one forecast going for record mild temps to usher in the New Year. With this in mind, keep an open eye when viewing the models - expect sudden developments and departures from what any of the ensembles and anomalies show.

In the meantime, within the reliable - about 120-144hrs tops, we have a chilly period ahead, more so further north, with snow to relatively low levels at times, wind and rain elsewhere and return of frost in clearer breaks. The models are hinting at possible height rises further towards the mid month period, but too far out to call what might happen.

Those wanting something more notably colder and snowier, if such weather does happen, I suspect it will appear at very short notice, and catch us out this year.

A point well made.

The disconnect is key here. Many people are noting the 'raging PV' which normally would keep us on the zonal train, (hence the despondency) we don't have a raging strat to match. Hence why the forecasts have gone down the toilet

Therefore anyone forecasting a dull rest of winter, don't be surprised if your toilet gets blocked by a snowmans poo before winter is out....

January 2, 2022

6 minutes ago, Don said:

January 1991 had a colder than average CET of 3.3C, which looks a little odd given the above charts!

Hi Don, I suppose, with the jet wavering over us like in the current set up, it only needed to be slightly further south a little more more often, to knock the CET down a few degrees.

January 2, 2022

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

ecm 192 chart similar to 20 jan 1991FWIW

I'm glad someone is paying attention

January 2, 2022

5 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Read - unsure what signs you’re seeing (absolutely nothing across NWP supporting this at all). We all live in hope and I for one would enjoy nothing more than some cold and snowy weather but currently Jan prospects look extremely bleak.

Ok, not sure you've read my posts correctly, or maybe you've just missed the context. The point was, that January may look "bleak" but with a very similar hemispheric profile throughout January 1991, we entered February with one of the most epic cold spells in memory

January 2, 2022

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

I too remember this spell also was pretty good in our area. There are many occasions with a rampant PV when cold develops from the east. 78-87 loads tbh but I'm not sure folk are saying winter is over. The current output is poor hence the lack of posters there's no way getting away from that, but who knows in Feb????

There's been a few negative posts over the last few pages and one or two are just on a wind-up...

Whilst the output is not showing much to write home about for a week or so, the bigger picture is that it could well be laying the groundwork for something epic.

Time will tell and there's no need for anyone to give up hope yet...