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bobbydog

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Everything posted by bobbydog

  1. probably, the Meto warnings suggest they are going with an ECM type scenario. the 06z GFS wouldn't warrant such a widespread warning
  2. have to disagree there mate- the ECM shows plenty of potential for many places-
  3. 06 GFS has the low virtually static, centred over SE england for over 48 hours! unlikely?
  4. this lot will do me- if an extended spell is not on the cards, then if we get a couple of belter days out of that lot, it'll do me. rather that than a chilly 2 weeks of feeble wintry showers
  5. you couldn't make it up........ maybe the GFS should be called F.F.S......
  6. blink and you'll miss it! GFS ECM maybe Gavin's tried pumping it up.......
  7. what i find really irritating is how informative or relevant posts get lost amongst the petty sniping in this thread- like mine above. i would have liked at least one constructive response but it will probably be missed due to childish bickering!
  8. just an observation, bearing in mind we would usually call up to +120 "the reliable" ECM vs GFS
  9. well, at least from an IMBY perspective, as good as some of these charts are, i'm not seeing anything other than tentative possibilities of some wintry weather over the next week or so. nothing epic. at this range, there's too much margin for error in some fragile set-ups to be confident of anything yet.
  10. personally, i'll be viewing the output with a pinch of salt for now. i think the ECM is taking quite a big step from this- to this- i'm always wary unless there is strong, cross-model agreement of a solid scenario, with the least impressive model still showing a scenario we would be more than happy with.
  11. i'm sure it has. its just an observation really. if, on occasion, it picks up a cold spell and happens to be right, it tends to get praise heaped upon it, even if its been wrong many other times. all i'm saying is that any model which gets the odd cold spell right, suddenly becomes the hero of the day, even if its wrong nine times out of ten.
  12. hmm....i wonder... if the GFS had been consistently showing a raging easterly just within high-res, would the comments in here be more along the lines of- "the GFS has performed well recently" or- "we can expect the other models to fall into line soon".........?
  13. i was thinking that but its usually the bigger trees which are dying or have unstable roots which come down. the leeward side of the south downs might see some protection from the wind but i doubt it will be much
  14. the Met office are not making so much of it yet (for our region)- gusts of up to 60mph on the coast but even up to 55mph well inland. thats still going to blow your hat off and its around rush hour, so could be an unpleasant journey home for some. however, the way the weather has been behaving lately, it wouldn't be a surprise to see this upgrade into something more nasty!
  15. i got knocked off my bike by one the other day "you @rsehole!!!" i shouted at him, through gritted teeth......
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