bobbydog

Started well here about 9am, had a decent covering within half an hour, my 8 year old daughter got all dressed up to go out and build her first ever snowman. Then it turned to rain/sleet and melted within minutes.... One disappointed tearful little girl

For all 'Les Miserables' in here... (ECM 240) "I dreamed a dream"...

Ok.... we want the low over Iceland to stall and sink.. This was a much weaker feature on the ECM Let's see...

Worth mentioning though, the GFS(P) to which you are referring, becomes the operational next month.....

Hemispheric patterns are something to watch for... I've just seen the ECM at 240 (yes ... I know...) It immediately reminded me of this... Just saying...

Well thats a result then because the GFS has been showing snow for me all week!

That could well be the case. Though I think we will still see huge swings in the output in the next few days. Patience could well be the key...

Exactly. That's my point...

I do chuckle when I see comments like "the models haven't got a clue" or "they haven't factored in the SSW yet". They do and they have.... They are computer algorithms fed with a vast amount of information regarding current atmospheric conditions. The fact they vary so wildly right now, demonstrates the fact that these conditions are very volatile due to the fact we have an SSW happening at this moment and subject to change at very short notice, hence the multitude of possible outcomes we are seeing. They are also fed this information at different times. So what data one model is given, may have changed by the time another is given its input. So, what the models are showing us is that the weather itself is currently highly unpredictable.... Whatever happens, just watch and enjoy the show....

Ok, well here's what's happening right now- And here's a week's time- We'd normally see temps of down to -88c in a strong vortex. As you can see, its a shadow of its former self in just a week's time. (It's trying to look happy but it's a strained smile...)

But then we haven't seen a smashed polar vortex like this in years. Seriously mate if you want to see the vortex any more split than its going to be, you're gonna need one of these...

Long before then mate. Thats just the nuts and bolts the scrap men left behind...

I wouldn't discount anything verifying at this time, however unlikely it seems. However, those worrying about the Atlantic train returning, don't.... The train has lost its engine...

Before the low slides south and east, dragging in much colder air from the north and east....

Hold your horses, nearly there... If the centre of that low keeps heading ESE, everyone is in the game...

The irony.... Anyway, I think we need that Russian high to hang on as long as possible to let the low sink further and give us a cracking cold easterly feed

Just don't write "Kent" on it again...

Happy New year!!

Ok... point to note... these are '2020' charts we're looking at. At midnight, we're hoping for a happier new year...

Honestly? Not sure Fred but I'd like to see the next chart after 240, Would that low sink enough to allow the heights over Russia to link up with Greenland? Maybe?.. I do hope so....

An incredibly cold Siberia and Greenland?....

Yep. GFS still going with it also, Meto forecast update still says snow risk with warnings still in place. I believe the weather icons are produced from raw model data and updated hourly. This has actually increased the snow chances for me here in Sussex. This is going to down to radars and lamp-posts....

'Bugger' off...