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bobbydog

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bobbydog last won the day on October 1 2018

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About bobbydog

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    A knight who says 'Ni'

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    Male
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    Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
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    the weather, building things, diy, horses, wildlife, my dog, drinking beer, pc gaming

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  1. Well I never...! IDO being optimistic??!! Dust off the sledges!! Winter's back on! ?
  2. It probably won't but why depress yourself watching the same old rubbish churned out by the models. It does change, it can take time, so why not concentrate on real life in the meantime? Weather/model watching can become an obsession. It's good to take a break sometimes... ?
  3. If you're thanking someone for relaying their weather-related thoughts on a weather forum, you will have a lot of thanking to do... ? On the other hand, if you are just throwing a bit of sarcasm about, a Model Forum Host is probably not the best person to aim it at... ?
  4. It would be a memorable storm for all the wrong reasons....
  5. I know. You can't polish a turd But you can put glitter on it... ?
  6. Positives..... It won't be mild, southerly tracking jet, No European blocking. *awaits the 'negatives' posts.... Does there have to be any?....
  7. Maybe there is some hope for this winter. Pure speculation of course but maybe the GFS is showing us the route out of this "zonal" rut. We have a very strong, monster of a trop PV in the latter stages of the run- However, with what's going on 'up there' It's enough to de-stabilise the PV causing it to rip itself apart by the end of the run. You just never know....
  8. Ah, no, they only mentioned "considerable uncertainty". It was me who mentioned snow. The GFS has shown the possibility so it's not off the table...
  9. It's been a common theme recently. It's in the first line in the 27th Dec to 5th Jan forecast. They obviously don't see much consistency in the models either.
  10. I wouldn't put too much faith in the model output beyond a week at most. When the world leading Met Office are using terms like "considerable uncertainty" in their own forecasts, it could go in any direction... even snow... (We live in hope...)
  11. Going by the 11 year (roughly) cycle, we are at the equivalent of 2008/2009 by timescale and we have surpassed the space-age record minima this year. There was a decent snowfall in february 2009 and 2009/10 and 2010/11 were two of the snowiest winters I have experienced since living in the south east (30 years) after moving down from the north east. Obviously there are no fixed rules where the weather is concerned but we are long overdue a decent spell of snowy weather. Bear in mind some of the most memorable snowfalls have only really lasted a week or two...
  12. Oh well... into hibernation then. Theres always next year...

    1. Show previous comments  4 more
    2. lassie23

      lassie23

      realistically june the 5th is the cut off point

    3. Katrine Basso

      Katrine Basso

      It is beginning to feel more like autumn.  Feels like our cold weather has been stolen.:oldlaugh:

    4. lassie23

      lassie23

      get the cold into eastern europe first, and watch it stay there all winter

  13. Not great is it? I had some optimism for this winter due to the deep solar minimum we have entered.
  14. Nothing particularly of note in today's runs, apart from a few snowflakes in F.I. Still plenty of uncertainty, so lots of scope for change.
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