Polar Maritime

I agree, using one form of statt is not the best way to forecast, of which i presume he is trying to do.

That's forecasting is it not ?

You did say Southern areas 252..

Very dark here today, Temp 3.8c, N/N/W 7mph, Dp 3.2c. Rain 1mm.

Seem's in line for Chino's 2nd bite from the stratt later in the Month, which he mentioned yesterday.

Im not, and have not "dressed" anything up, or stated a "major" pattern change so please do not dress my post's up and miss-quote them. I have only pointed out the strong signals for colder more wintry weather by the METO for the last third of the month. which the models also have hinted. I agree the models are showing signs of a change toward the end of next week, with less vigorous storm systems spinning off the Atlantic with a weakening Jet.. It's a start.

I agree Winter79, and how some posters can not see a pattern change towards the end of the month is beyond me.

GIANT SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR1944, which appeared on January 1st, is one of the largest sunspots of the current solar cycle. It's so big, people are noticing it as a naked-eye blemish on the solar disk. "Sunspot 1944 was visible at sunrise on January 4th," Although the sunspot has been relatively quiet and stable since it first appeared on New Year's Day, a region of this size has the potential to produce significant activity. Indeed, NOAA forecasters, who say they are keeping a close eye on this behemoth, estimate a 75% chance of M-flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on Jan. 4th. http://www.spaceweather.com/

Found this.. The North Atlantic is blowing a hoolie again. Surfers will be hard pressed to remember a winter which has delivered storm force ferocity with such consistency. And as the mercury plunging pattern continues, the forecast is set to hit new highs on Monday, delivering a swell which is somewhat of a step into the unknown. “During the past few weeks the bigger swells have traversed inclement routes, normally accompanied with unfavourable wind, giving only a few short windows for the chargers.†Says MSW Forecaster, Francisco. “However this storm which will hit Europe next Monday/Tuesday will exhibit different behaviour, moving from the East Coast of the USA on a north east route. We are forecasting an intensification during Saturday with the wind peaking during the afternoon. Our data currently shows that we will see an area approximately with the size of France with winds exceeding 50 kts and expect maximum wind speeds of 70 kts.†http://magicseaweed.com/news/atlantic-code-red-incoming/5954/

Yes ECM ^ We are only looking at one set of runs, Models are still playing with a pattern change out in FI, there will be some wild swings in evolution before they settle down to any kind of form. As you say very interesting watching it unfold. Will be interesting to here any updates from Fergie, reg the growing signals the METO are receiving, for cold weather last third of Jan.

Very positive signs tonight for us cold/extreme cold lovers

Maybe, just maybe At least we have the met on our side this time, always helps ! and at the stage we are at now regarding "snow" with the models im pretty sure we will all see something wintry, how severe and prolonged is now the question for me/us.

Trust me Dancer even TM and myself need a snow fix, very poor so far round here with only the odd day with a very thin covering. Things should turn much more Wintry after mid-month going by the charts and experts

This probably want come as a surprise.. Retweeted Met Office (@metoffice): For Scotland, December 2013 was the wettest month ever since national records began in 1910.

METO are still on board, in line with the trends we are seeing. 18 Jan 2014 to Saturday 1 Feb 2014: "Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month." And before that... 8 Jan 2014 to Friday 17 Jan 2014: "Later in the period we may see a slightly higher occurrence of colder interludes between spells of rain leading to an increased risk of frost and icy patches compared to recent weeks."

How many other ways can it be explained ? But as far as the models are concerned the trends are there. And that's the interest it gives us during the Winter months, all standard precautions at this time of the year when looking at a pattern change.

Very light sleet/hail grains here atm...

I think we are all fully aware of the cautions out in FI, And if any members weren't im pretty sure they are now

Yes Glenn, Best run of the winter so far i would say for cold and the trend seems to be growing. Lot's to be positive about this morning and very interesting to see how things develop.

BIG SUNSPOT, CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1944, which emerged over the sun's eastern limb on Jan. 1st, is big and potentially dangerous. The complex region contains more than a dozen dark cores, and the leading spot is big enough to swallow two planet Earths all by itself. AR1944 is so large, sky watchers on Earth are beginning to notice it as a blemish on the solar disk at sunset: Indeed, the sunspot has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% for M-flares and 30% for X-flares on Jan. 3rd. The effect of any flares today will be mitigated by the fact that the sunspot is not yet directly facing Earth. However, even an off-center blast from this behemoth could produce radio blackouts and geomagnetic activity. Stay tuned for developments. http://www.spaceweather.com/

Even better run from the GFS with stronger blocking and Easterly flow bringing very cold air with it.. Winter proper looks like arriving for the last 3rd of January.

Yes Matty very positive signs this morning, very interesting model watching indeed over the coming days.

Good luck, Keep them sick bags handy !

Much better potential this morning, with the models starting to get a grip on the pattern change to something much colder and wintry. A nice chart to see, let's hope the models maintain this current trend.

Never mentions Globsal Warming in the article Keith ? Meteorologists say that the extreme winter weather has been caused by the combination of three low pressure systems from the south and the east. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2532566/Freezing-cold-blizzards-grip-Northeast-Canada-records-temperatures-cold-Mars.html#ixzz2pHoOTGEF Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook But with it does bring extreme weather events...