Polar Maritime

Still Foggy here... Temp 10.2c

Fog & Drizzle 10.3c !

Global warming pause 'central' to IPCC climate report David Shukman explains why the report is likely to be divisive Continue reading the main story Related Stories[*]Five key questions facing the IPCC [*]Warming extremes 'not as likely' [*]Are ideas to cool the planet realistic? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) meets this week in Sweden to thresh out a critical report on global warming. Scientists will underline, with greater certainty than ever, the role of human activities in rising temperatures. But many governments are demanding a clearer explanation of the slowdown in temperature increases since 1998. One participant told BBC News that this pause will be a "central piece" of the summary. Researchers from all over the world work with the IPCC to pore over thousands of peer-reviewed studies and produce a summary representing the current state of climate science. In the latest draft summary, seen by the BBC, the level of scientific certainty has increased. The panel states that it is 95% certain that the "human influence on climate caused more than half the observed increase in global average surface temperatures from 1951-2010." But since 2007, there has been a growing focus on the fact that global average temperatures haven't gone above the level recorded in 1998. This slowdown, or hiatus as the IPCC refers to it, has been leapt upon by climate sceptics to argue that the scientific belief that emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere increases the temperature of the planet, is wrong. Scientists have attempted to explain the pause in a number of ways, with many arguing that the Earth has continued to warm but that the heat has gone into oceans. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24173504

Yes, it's that time of year again where the hot/cold battle commences, which is why Sep/Oct is a nightmare to forecast. But as Mushy has stated nothing in the chart's are showing either, just normal standard Autumn weather for the next few day's. But with high pressure continuing to push North keeping the Polar Vortex very unstable, Some very unsettled weather could soon be on our shores.

COMET ISON IN MOTION: Comet ISON is falling toward the sun for a close encounter on Thanksgiving Day 2013. If it survives, it could become one of the finest comets in years. At the moment ISON is still far away and faint, but its sunward velocity is impressive--more than 72,000 mph on Sept. 22nd. Alberto Quijano Vodniza of Pasto, Narino, Colombia, obtained the 35-minute video on Sept 22nd. "The motion of the comet was clearly visible," he says. "I used a 14-inch Celestron telescope and a STL-1001E SBIG camera." Comet ISON is now approaching Mars in the eastern sky before sunrise. On Oct. 1st it will fly past the Red Planet at a distance on only 0.07 AU. Mars satellites and rovers are in position to snap the first close-up pictures of the comet. Until then, browse the Comet ISON Photo Gallery where pictures from Earth are already pouring in. http://www.spaceweather.com/

High-Himalayan glaciers thinning. http://www.flickr.com/photos/robnunn/5312171842/ This fascinating image shows a variety of textures formed in ice of the Khumbu glacier in Nepal; one of the main glaciers that drain the Everest area and a stop on the most common route to the summit. I’m sharing this image to illustrate some new scientific work on glaciers like this one in the highest parts of the Himalaya. Ponder this question to go with this photo; how do you determine whether a glacier at this altitude is shrinking or growing? Many glaciers at lower elevations are retreating; the position they stop at can be measured year after year, and they’re mostly retreating up valleys around the world. High in mountain ranges and far away from the terminus however, figuring out what a glacier is doing is difficult. Glaciers move down valleys and can stretch, crack, and bend as they do. Snow will pile up on glaciers in the winter and, as you see here, it can form some fascinating structures when it melts/evaporates in the summer. If you tried to measure the thickness of this glacier from the air, perhaps by bouncing lasers off it to measure the height, features like this would make it very difficult to get an accurate estimate. A few glaciers may be well tracked and people on the ground could actively measure the thickness, but most glaciers in the high-Himalaya are so remote that people aren’t going to regularly make that measurement. These glaciers are a major part of feeding the watersheds for the cities below, so monitoring their health is important. Some recently presented work by a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research strongly suggests these glaciers may be in more trouble than we think. If a glacier at these elevations is growing or even steady, it will add some snow at its summit every year and it will lose some mass at its base every year. At the highest parts of the glacier therefore, a new band of snow should be produced every year. That band of snow will contain remnants of other things happening in the atmosphere; volcanic ash, dust, or even manmade components. There are 2 easily measured horizons that should show up in these glaciers. From 1952 to 1963, aerial nuclear weapons tests produced radioactive tritium that would be stored in the ice layers, and in 1986, the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in the Ukraine produced a similar radioactive spike. If a scientist takes a core through a stable glacier in the Himalayas today and works downwards, those years should be easily recognized by the radioactive elements. These researchers sampled several glaciers that were previously unmonitored and looked for those years. In one glacier, the Guoqu glacier in Central Tibet, the bomb test signal shows up but the glacier does not include the Chernobyl signal or any volcanic eruptions following 1982. Other measures, such as mercury content, also only track up to the early 1980’s, suggesting that this glacier has not added significant mass since the early 1980s, a period of 3 decades. If later years were added, they have since ablated away. Another glacier in southern Tibet, the Lanong glacier, is in even worse shape. It contains neither the Chernobyl signal nor the atmospheric weapons test signal. That glacier has not been able to add mass at a normal rate for years; any ice added since the 1950s, and perhaps even earlier, has melted or ablated away. Many of these glaciers are unmonitored and since it is difficult to measure their thicknesses using any other technique people haven’t believed they could be in this bad of shape, but decades of mass loss in the investigated locations is a very disturbing trend. These results suggest that the glaciers of the high Himalayas, which supply water to hundreds of millions of people, are suffering the effects of a changing climate even worse than was expected. This type of sampling clearly needs to happen on a larger scale to better assess the health of these systems. Press report: http://tibet.net/2013/09/18/tibetan-glaciers-are-shrinking-at-their-summits/ Image credit: Robert Nunn http://www.flickr.com/photos/robnunn/5312171842/

A dry night with clear periods and light winds, and thick Fog forming in early hours. An overnight low 8.6c. Currently; Foggy, almost windless. Temp 8.7c Dp 7.2c Wind S/W 1mph Humidity 86% Rain since midnight 0mm

Lovely sunset to finish the day...

A pleasant day with a high of 20.6c here. starting to drop now, currently 17.7c.

Blue sky's apart from the odd rouge cloud, and feeling warm in the sun here. Temp 17.7c

Another cloudy night with clear intervals but warmer than of late with an overnight low of 14.5c. Currently; Dry and breezy with a small amount of cloud and long sunny intervals. Temp 14.6c Dp 13.4c Wind N/W 6mph Humidity 91% Rain since midnight 0mm

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be released on the 27th of September 2013. With over 800 reviewers involved in its publication, the leaking of information was almost inevitable. Here is a sneak preview of what we can expect based on leaks so far: Humans are responsible: This won’t come as a shock to most people, but the IPCC have increased their level of certainty that the rise in global temperatures during the last half century is the result of anthropogenic processes. The confidence level has risen from 90% in 2007, to 95% now. Ice continues to melt: Not only are ice caps and glaciers continuing to melt, but the rate at which they are melting is increasing. The Arctic is shrinking, while there was some recovery as compared to last year’s minimum, 2013 summer melt was the 6th largest on record. For the years 2002-2011, Greenland lost 6 times more ice than it did between 1992 and 2001. The Antarctic land ice has also seen an increasing rate in melting. Speaking of the Antarctic, predictions for the continent are tricky: Although the Antarctic Ice Sheet melted at a rate up to 5 times quicker during 2002-2011 as compared to the previous decade, sea ice is increasing. The 2007 report predicted a slight decrease in sea ice extent but this has proven to be inaccurate currently. However, recent studies suggest that the increase in sea ice can be attributed to changes in wind patterns- this probably won’t be reflected in the report. Temperatures will continue to rise: The report is unequivocal on this issue. Warming is project to rise by about 1.5 degrees Celsius this century. The report acknowledges a slowdown in warming in the past 15 years, but reiterates there is no cooling trend. Temperatures have continued to rise and the last 30 years continue to be the warmest in several centuries. For many, the report details the expected, but nevertheless, it will be an interesting read when it is released next week.

A cloudy dry night with the odd clear interval with an overnight low of 8c. Currently; Mainly dry with the odd spot of drizzle and overcast, with fog higher up in the hills behind me. Temp 10.4c Dp 9.5c Wind S/S/W 4mph Wind Chill 8.9c Humidity 95% Pressure 1021 mb Rain since midnight 0.2mm

A mostly dry night again with the odd spot of rain and light winds. An overnight low of 9.4c. Currently; Patchy cloud, Dry. Temp 9.8c Dp 8.7c Wind N/W 7mph Rain since midnight 0.6mm

We always seem to attract the tourists..

A mostly dry cloudy night with the odd spot of rain and some clear intervals, An overnight low of 7.7c. Currently; Cloudy with light rain just starting. Temp 7.9c Dp 5.6c Wind S/W 5mph Rain since midnight 0.3mm

A cool cloudy night with the odd light shower, An overnight low of 5.8c. Currently; Cool, mostly clear with patchy cloud. Temp 6c Dp 4.8c Wind W/N/W 5mph Rain since midnight 0.3mm

NASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906. Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810. Solar cycle 6 was weaker still and stretched from around 1810 to the early 1820s. Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers. This type of climate is a result of a jet stream that’s positioned further south than normal – caused, it’s thought at least in part, by the behaviour of the sun. The mechanism as to why weak solar cycles may affect the position of the jet stream is poorly understood. But a more southerly positioned jet stream is the reason why the UK has recently seen a return of cold snowy winters and a run of poor summers. Should solar activity continue to mirror that which was observed from 1795 to 1820 then it’s possible that our weather could be similar too. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Rare-solar-cycle-has-cold-implications-for-UK-climate

Thanks for that,very interesting ! I will post it in the Solar thread as relevant there to

LONELY SUNSPOT, QUIET SUN: The sunspot number has dropped to its lowest level of the year. Solitary sunspot AR1841 sits all alone at the center of an otherwise blank solar disk. It is quiet and poses no threat for strong flares: NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of M- or X-class solar flares during the next 24-48 hours. If the forecast holds, the sun will continue a spate of deep quiet that has lasted for more than a week, nearly-flatlining the sun's x-ray output.http://www.spaceweather.com/

A cool breezy night with light showers with an overnight low of 5.4c. Currently; Light showers,overcast. Temp 7.2c Dp 4.7c Wind W/N/W 8mph Rain since midnight 2.8mm

A cold day for the time of year with a max temp of 8.9c. Heavy showers all day with breezy N/W winds. Currently; 7.7c Rain today 14.9mm