Gibby

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY APR 5TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge of High pressure will cross East over the UK today followed by a weakening cold front moving East later tonight leading into a cool and strong showery WNW flow tomorrow and Thursday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain between 5000ft and 7000ft over the next few days under shallow Low pressure dirfting North over the UK. By or on Wednesday the level will rise higher still across the SW for a time before falling to nearer 4000ft behind an Eastward moving cold front by Thursday with snow returning in showers to mountains above 3000ft. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too. Probably staying cool. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to maintain the Jet Stream lying well to the South of the UK in a deep trough like structure for the whole of the output this morning. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show a disappointing set of charts over the UK for the next few weeks. Instead of the normal flow of Low pressure West to East they look like flowing North to South across the UK next week enhancing the already mostly rather cool and showery weather with some longer spells of rain at times too along with some snow on Northern hills. Some brief drier and brighter spells are of course likely as well especially later in the period when Northern regions especially become drier and brighter under higher pressure. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run shows unsettled conditions across the UK too for the first week at least before a slow but gradual improvement is hinted at as Low pressure weakens and fills up in situ near the UK through the second week allowing for some more benign and warmer conditions to develop by the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a slight shift to the likelihood of more benign conditions in two weeks time as there seems no distinctive pressure type gaining overall control over the UK weather at that time. In among the clusters 10% show High pressure across the UK at that time point and that is a marked improvement from what's been shown of late. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure well in control of conditions across the UK over it's period today. Ending up down to the SW of the UK cyclonic winds around deep Low pressure will ensure plenty more rain and showers to come across the UK over the next 6 days with temperatures suppressed apart from when any brief sunnier breaks occur, these most likely towards the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex situation developing through the latter half of this week and the weekend with rain and showers never far away from all areas. With time Low pressure becomes lodged across and to the SW of the UK with rain and showers for all in average temperatures. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM is also showing a cool and largely unsettled 10 days or so to come as all eyes look to the Northwest and later North for cool Low pressure to move down across or close to the UK is maintained with rain and showers in temperatures near average at best and below at times where rain is persistent. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today is the warmest of the morning's output as it eventually parks Low pressure further West and allows a more enhanced Southerly drift to develop across the UK with temperatures on the rise and the worst of the rain towards the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM shows little sign of Spring warmth and sunshine under High pressure as it's Low pressure all the way eventually settling over or just to the SW of the UK throwing spells of rain and showers at times up across the UK. There will of course be some warmth from any April sunshine between the showers but the showers will often be heavy, thundery and prolonged especially across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure right across the UK with the likely weather being sunshine and showers at best with no doubt some longer spells of rain too but with some compensatory brief warmth from sunshine in between. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models again this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 86.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.4 pts to 61.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.1 pts to 40.5 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS I had some criticism for being a little pessimistic on the charts for yesterday and I have looked this morning for more reasons to be more optimistic but unfortunately I can't fine much reason as Low pressure and cold showers and longer spells of rain is not what most people and I included hope to see at this time of year. Given today's pleasantness I think this is likely to be the best day of this week as cold winds and April showers look likely from tomorrow on and then some longer spells of rain too later on Friday and continuing through the weekend as Low pressure parks itself close to the SW. There will of course be some drier interludes in between the rain and the strength of the sun will make any of this seem pleasant enough but no bright spell looks guaranteed to last with Low pressure so close. Eastern coasts of Scotland could become particularly cold and grey with an onshore breeze and some of the rain in the South could well be heavy and thundery. This theme looks almost set in stone between the models this morning with the exception of NAVGEM which would bring warm Southerly air more definitively up across the UK with rain more restricted towards the West and North. There may also be a slight shift towards better conditions towards the South and East late in the run of GFS supported by it's clusters so that is one straw to clutch but for now however much I try to dress it up there is little evidence of any guaranteed prolonged dry period over the next few weeks which will take us out to the end of April as long as the Jet stream remains South of the UK. Next Update Wednesday April 6th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY APR 4TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A shallow Low pressure area will drift North and NE across the UK today with light cyclonic winds settling Westerly as a ridge of High pressure crosses from the West through the day tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain between 5000ft and 7000ft over the next few days under shallow Low pressure dirfting North over the UK. By or on Wednesday the level will rise higher still across the SW for a time before falling to nearer 4000ft behind an Eastward moving cold front by Thursday with snow returning in showers to mountains above 3000ft. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too. Probably staying cool. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to maintain a trough structure across the UK throughout this week, steepening by next weekend as Low pressure sets up shop towards the SW of the UK. Then through the second week any changes in this Jet flow trough across the UK is slow with only a shift towards the very end of the run when confidence is weak of a more SW to NE flow setting up across the UK with Low pressure then to the NW of Britain. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure in control of the UK weather for much of the next few weeks as Low pressure remains and strengthens by next weekend setting in position close to SW England and spilling rain or showers across Southern areas at least with the best of the weather in the North. Then towards the end of the period there is a signal for milder SW winds and less in the way of rain and showers for the South and East developing with continuing changeable conditions across the North and West as pressure is shown to build to the SE. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run shows unsettled conditions across the UK too for the next couple of weeks with an even slower drift towards an improvement later in the period than the operational shows. Low pressure remains close to the UK throughout dragging a lot of cool and showery air across the UK with just a slow build of pressure from the West late next week leading to maybe less showers but in cool air some frost risk at night. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA Once again the GFS Clusters at the 14 day time point suggest Low pressure likely to be in control of the UK weather with just a 20% cluster indicating any relied fine and more settled conditions under High pressure close to the West with some night frosts likely should this cool High form. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure well in control of conditions across the UK over the next 6 days. A few brief ridges namely tomorrow and on Friday will bring a couple of drier days between areas of rain and showers in temperatures rather depressed given the time of year. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex troughing associated with Low pressure near to the UK for much of this week as various Low pressure areas move NE to start the week and SE across the North and East of the UK late in the week maintaining the risk of showers or longer outbreaks of rain through the week at the same time as becoming rather colder. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM is also showing a cool and largely unsettled 10 days or so to come as all eyes look to the Northwest and later North for cool Low pressure to move down across or close to the UK is maintained with rain and showers in temperatures near average at best and below at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a lot of breezy and cool weather to come this week as Low pressure remains dominant for all. The passage of the early Low pressure will be NE but once to the East the door is opened to the NW for further cool Low pressure to move down across or near to the West of the UK with cyclonic and cool winds with rain and showers for all heavy at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM is no exception to the rest of the output with the theme of Low pressure in control over the UK throughout the next 10 days. It won't be raining all the time though and some dry interludes under weak ridges this week are shown but with Low pressure eventually settling to the SW of the UK bands of rain and showers will be pushed North or NW across the UK at times with the air none to warm at times especially over the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night still shows Low pressure anchored near Ireland indicative of unsettled weather very likely for all in 10 days time with rain and showers for all in cyclonic winds and temperatures near average at best. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models again this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 86.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.9 pts to 60.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.4 pts to 41.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Well I thought a few days off from me might be long enough for the models to have perked up and showed something more Springlike to come as we move through April but it looks as though my hopes have gone unheeded as it looks from this morning's output that the weather remains unsettled and often rather cool from most if not all output over the next few weeks. Putting the meat on the bones sees the current shallow Low pressure feeding NE up across the UK serves only to open the door to the Atlantic and the NW later this week for further troughs and Low pressure to bring further outbreaks of rain and heavy showers plus an unwelcome cold wind soon after midweek. Thereon Low pressure seems to get stuck down near the SW of the UK with days and days of troughs spilling north across the UK with further rain and showers at times for all, heaviest in the South. There are a few glimmers of hope with the GFS Operational Run at the end of the period suggesting High pressure building to the SE and settling winds to a milder SW'ly with the South and east becoming largely dry but this is about as good as it gets this morning and that is a good 1-2 days away. So this weekends brief warmth in the SE looks a brief blip in an otherwise cool and unsettled outlook. Frosts will be possible at times if skies clear, at least in the North and while some drier and brighter spells in strong April sunshine might offset the unsettled pattern at times the overall synoptic look of the charts this morning can only lead to a feeling of disappointment if it's a sustained fine, warm and settled spell that your seeking. Next Update Tuesday April 5th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY APR 1ST 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure is moving SE across Northern and Western areas decelerating with time to lie across Northern and Western parts of England and Wales tomorrow before moving back North as a milder Southerly flow develops across England and Wales. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise over the coming days first in the South and later parts of the North too starting the period at around 4000ft and rising towards 6000ft in the South by Monday taking the freezing level above any summits in England and Wales and possible in Scotland too for a time. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is moving SE across the North Atlantic and returns in a weakened SW moving flow across the UK in the coming days setting up Low pressure near the South of the UK for a time. Thereafter the theme is for the flow to maintain a desire to stay moving SE over the UK and later still well to the South of the UK in a dishevelled form. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows winds backing South, SE and then East over England and Wales over the coming days drawing warmer air North and taking the trough affecting the North and West away to the Northwest. Then from midweek following a brief drier interlude Low pressure from the NW sets up near the UK and for the last week unsettled best describes conditions with rain and showers in temperatures near average but maybe a bit below or above dependent on the final resting place of the Low pressure and the Cyclonic wind source affecting the UK GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run shows a very similar story as the Operational with changeable conditions with showers or outbreaks of rain at times for all areas and after a warmer interlude in the coming days temperatures look likely to become depressed again at times through the remainder of the run, all due to Low pressure moving down from the North later next week and setting up shop in the vicinity of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA Once again the GFS Clusters at the 14 day time point suggest Low pressure likely to be in control of the UK weather with a bias between members for it's position to be over or to the South of Southern Britain although there is also a sizeable group who put the centre more towards the NW suggesting somewhat better conditions in the SE. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows slack Low pressure moving NE across the UK early next week with plenty of showers for all. This then opens the door to the NW for cooler and unsettled conditions to spread down across all areas with further rain at times and winds from a cooler source. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the raw data charts pretty well this morning following the course of Low pressure becoming complex over the coming days and drifting NE early next week displacing the milder period with something rather cooler from the NW later next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM is also showing a similar scenario with conditions turning colder from the NW as we move through next week and ending the period with Low pressure near the UK with plenty of April showers and longer spells of rain for all in colder sourced air from the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM is a little different in as much as while the milder and showery period does give way to more unsettled weather from the NW on this run winds are much more Westerly sourced later in the run with Low pressure much further North and while rain at times is likely for all it will feel OK in any sunshine and much of the worst of the rain could focus more towards the North and West rather than elsewhere with time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM sides with the remainder of the pack outside of NAVGEM and brings weather down from the NW and then North later in the run displacing the warmth of this weekend and bringing changeable and sometimes wet and cool conditions later next week and probably beyond as the run ends with complex Low pressure near or over the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure anchored over Ireland indicative of unsettled weather very likely for all in 10 days time with rain and showers for all in cyclonic winds and temperatures near average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models again this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 85.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.2 pts to 59.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.3 pts to 40.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS April is often a month when we can see huge swings in the weather from day to day as the natural warming of the atmosphere competes with the decaying coldness of Northern latitudes. This often results in big showers and vast temperature differences not only day to day but between night and day too. All of the above is going to be on offer over the coming few weeks if today's ouputs is to be believed and with quite good cross model support I think the output has a good handle on the overall patterning. So we're in a warmer phasing at the moment as winds switch Southerly for several days drawing up warmth from Spain. However, with Low pressure in close proximity with time we have to cater for some of those big April showers and outbreaks of rain. Then as the Low switches to be NE of the UK the door opens next week for colder NW winds to take over with further rain or showers but a return of things feeling rather chilly at times. If anything a lot of output strengthens this Northern sourced air even more through the second week and with Low pressure never looking likely to be far from the UK we will be looking at lots of showers and spells of rain and perhaps still cold enough for snow on the hills of the North. All this is very typical of April so one shouldn't be too surprised to see synoptics that we are. In my experience Northern blocking in Spring often brings the threat of cold and snow we don't often see in the Winter months but as the Southern latitude warmth becomes stronger we often find that the Low pressure near the UK is pulled more towards the NW with time and allows something of the continental warmth to filter into the South and East at times and I feel there are hints of that shown in some of the longer term charts this morning. All this of course in fantasy land at the moment. I won't be around for any update tomorrow but should be back on Sunday with a more in depth look at the models for the coming two weeks. Next Update Sunday April 3rd 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAR 31ST 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will build across England and Wales with a trough of Low pressure moving SE across Scotland and Northern Ireland tomorrow and stalling across Central Britain on Saturday with a warmer Southerly flow developing across the South for the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK remains at around 3000ft asl over much of the Uk though with limited precipitation any showers will only fall over hills and mountains above about 2500ft and restricted to the spine of the Uk today. Freezing levels will rise more towards 5000ft over West and NW area tomorrow. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will develop a trough just to the West of the UK which will infiltrate East across the UK and NW Europe over next week and probably beyond too with low pressure responsible from the Uk to Spain and later to the North as well with a very disorganised flow by then. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a ridge currently building across the UK while moving SE tomorrow and allowing a trough to move down from the NW. At the same time pressure will fall to the West and showery weather will develop from later in the weekend as the trough over Central regions by then moves back North under a warmer Southerly flow. Then with pressure becoming Low to the SE for a time next week a period of showery and cooler weather will return before pressure builds briefly over the North. Then through Week 2 Low pressure sinking South across the UK would bring further rain and showers and eventual return to a ESE flow from Europe and depending on the source of air would influence the temperatures in the by then showery airflow in the South with dry conditions towards the North and East. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run uses the Azores High as the most influential factor in it's run this morning as any warmth this weekend in a brief warmer Southerly becomes eroded by a switch in winds towards the North and NW with troughs moving SE down across the North and East in particular and delivering some rain and showers in cool air. Then with the High in the Atlantic moving occasionally North and then South again winds are maintained between NW and NE with some chilly and showery conditions to be had for all at times with some frosts at night still. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today as yesterday show complex Low pressure poorly positioned for the time of year, mostly biased to be just to the East or SE of the UK with cold rain and showers the theme of the group with temperatures on the cool side of average at day 14. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a showery and relatively mild two to three days in a Southerly flow early next week before a ridge from the Azores High ridges over the UK and tempers the temperatures somewhat and kills the showers and brings a return to the chance of frost by night again midweek http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a front moving SE into the UK tomorrow displacing the ridge over England and wales SE. Pressure is falling to the West and SW at the weekend and a milder SSE flow will bring some showers into the South and West in particular, perhaps thundery and prolonged in places. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM also shows a milder showery interlude early next week before the ridge shown by other output brings a drier and slightly cooler period midweek. Then later in the run developments in Low pressure to the NW is pulled SE across the UK with rain and showers in tow and with intense High pressure over Greenland to end the period cool and showery conditions is the best we can hope for from it's 10 day setup as Low pressure loiters across the UK with cool East winds across the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows the general plan shown by the rest with the milder showery spell at the start of the week displaced by a drier phase under a ridge before Low pressure sinks SE across the UK in a week or so time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM completes the set with the same theme next week culminating in a deep and cold Low pressure zone across the UK in 10 days time with rain and showers and still cold enough for snow on the hills in places and no doubt some unwelcome frosts by night. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure anchored across the UK in 10 days time and I se no likely changes in this scenario when this morning's chart is issued with the result being rain and showers continuing across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable period of weather for all is the main theme from the models again this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 85.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.6 pts to 59.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.1 pts to 40.5 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Despite the prospect of some higher temperatures at the weekend I wouldn't want my readers to believe this was the beginning of an early Spring warm spell, far from it in fact as this morning's output illustrates that while waiting all Winter for Northern blocking to occur to no avail lo and behold come April here it is. So with that in mind this weekends pleasant temperatures in the South but with some showers will be eroded away South by midweek under a ridge which looks like bringing quiet and benign weather but in somewhat lower temperatures and the risk of night frosts under any clear skies. It's later next week when things look like taking a nosedive again as Low pressure is pulled down from the NW, supported by by most models and bringing it return to a spell of rain and more of those cool April showers. In fact by the second week pressure looks like becoming very High to the North or NW and this looks like winds could turn to a chilly Easterly and with Low pressure never far away from the South or SE further rain and showers in cool temperatures seems the most likely eventuality with the chance of some snow in the showers over the hills and some frost at night by the end of the period. Of course how cold any Easterly will be come the time is open to debate and all depends on the source of air over Europe beforehand but with High pressure to the NW I wouldn't mind betting it could still be very chilly on April standards. So there it is another disappointing report if it's warm Spring weather your after but with longer daylight hours now and some useable sunshine between the showers there is some better conditions mixed in with the not so good. here's hoping for something a little better from me tomorrow. Next Update Thursday March 31st 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAR 30TH 2016. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening Westerly flow will lie across the UK today with a ridge of High pressure developing NE from the SW across the UK tomorrow with the ridge then sliding SE on Friday as a strengthening SW flow ahead of a cold front moves SE late in the day http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain quite low given the time of year at around 2000-3000ft for most, low enough to see wintry precipitation in the form of showers affect the hills of the UK above around 2000ft though there will be less of them than recently. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will develop a NE flow across the UK later in the weekend before it dips South to the West of the UK while weakening through the early days of next week. The flow then becomes cut off to the South while the flow to the North remains stronger while still moving NE to the NW of us, Later in the run the flow moves South and travels East to the South of the UK with unsettled conditions returning to all of the UK under Low pressure. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current situation of gently rising pressure in a weakening showery Westerly flow replaced by a ridge of High pressure moving across the UK towards the end of the working week. Over the weekend a cold front will move SE with some rain across the North and West with a few showery days then expected under warmer Southerly winds for a day or so. Then next week High pressure to the SW becomes instrumental with NW winds and cooler air with some rain from troughs moving SE down over the North and East at times. Then towards the end of the run the High is shown to recede with a stronger Westerly flow for all with rain at times for all and temperatures close to average. GFS CONTROL RUN The only difference in the theme of the Control Run from the Operational offering today is the timing of the day to day events in the otherwise common theme described above. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show complete support for each other in that Low pressure is likely to be dominant, most likely centred towards the NW of the UK with winds from a west or NW flow. At worst 30% of members suggest Low pressure centred across the heart of the UK with a cocktail of rain and April showers very much the likely scenario in average temperatures at best. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a cold front moving SE at the start of the weekend stalling as Low pressure slips SE close to the SW. Rain in the North and West will be followed by a couple of warmer and showery days especially in the west and SW before High pressure builds towards the North by the middle of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a weakening showery airflow across the UK as a developing ridge of High pressure moves across the UK later this week. Following on the trough from the NW is shown to stall with slack pressure gradients likely for most and some showers towards the West. The last chart the 120hr chart will likely be modified tonight as the Low pressure complex it shows over the UK is looking less likely from more recent updates. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM looks less likely than some other output in developing much in the way of High pressure and drier weather next week. Instead it shows a complex showery situation developing next week as Low pressure meanders across the UK reinforced later by developments from the Northwest leaving the end of the run with Low pressure having moves SE across us and leaving a cold and showery end of the period in it's wake. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a weaker version of the GEM scenario with the showery period next week beginning to become reinforced from the NW too by this time next week therefore unlikely to support any long lasting settled period developing soon. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM has never really bought into the dry spell next week and this morning proves no exception with Low pressure regaining control early next week with heavy showers and rain at times in lower temperatures looking likely after a warmer weekend. With the UK lying under a weakness in pressure with High pressure to the NE and SW further Low pressure is likely to dominate later in the run with further showers and rain at times in sometimes cool conditions for early April. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows an elongated Low pressure zone lying SE from Southern Greenland through the UK to NW Europe likely at the Day 10 time point indicating unsettled and showery conditions the most likely weather in 10 days in temperatures unspectacular for early April. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable period of weather for all is the main theme from the models again this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 85.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.5 pts to 59.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.1 pts to 41.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS I'm afraid I feel very underwhelmed and uninspired by this morning's output and I feel that feeling will be felt by many as the charts refuse to indicate any sustained period of dry and settled weather over the next few weeks. Having said that there will be some reasonable conditions around especially over the end of this week before a cold front throws a spanner in the works for the weekend as it stalls across Central areas along with it's rainfall. There will be clearer air to the NW of it and to the SE and with air moving North across the South it could become rather warmer for a time although showers will be a threat across SW regions at times. Then next week the majority of output suggests that lower pressure to the SW could affect more of the UK especially the South and it's this Low that acts as a pivotal point of the differences in model output this morning. UKMO at day 6 has this feature well to the South by then with High pressure ridging strongly across the North. However, most of the rest of the models including many members from the ensemble data indicate this Low as a catalyst to open the door to the NW in feeding more Low pressure down across the UK and return unsettled and at least showery conditions to the UK and more importantly dropping temperatures back to average or a little below which if it occurs is shown to be maintained for the rest of the period covered by the models this morning. So while I would love to be able to report a spell of fine and warm Spring weather developing across the UK through the start of April a whiff of warmth at the weekend looks pretty isolated in nature in an otherwise pretty benign set of weather charts hinging around Low pressure near to the UK with April showers the most likely outcome in temperatures close to average or a little below at times at best. Next Update Thursday March 31st 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAR 29TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A showery SW flow will be maintained across the UK, brisk in the South with a thundery trough moving NE across the South later today. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be quite low given the time of year at around 2000-3000ft for most, low enough to see wintry precipitation in the form of showers affect the hills of the UK above around 2000ft. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is moving in an Easterly direction across Northern France but later in the week it troughs South as low pressure develops over Spain with a ridge across Southern England. The flow then settles to the NW in a NE'ly direction for a time before many options look likely in Week 2 with the flow ebbing and flowing North and South across the Atlantic and Europe later. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a showery few days to come but with the trend towards drier conditions after in the week as winds fall slack and pressure rises steadily from the SW. A Low pressure trough feeds down from the NW later in the week, weakening as it does and stalling across Central Britain. Through next week it looks like after a dry spell with some sunshine more cool and unsettled conditions spread down from the NW with rain at times and then right at the end of the run slack pressure sets up again with a lot of dry and bright weather for most. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is similar to that of the Operational Run through the first week but then a drift away from the Operational through Week 2 as deep Low pressure eventually develops to the North of the UK with a strong mobile pattern of Westerly winds with gales, rain and showers return to all areas again as we move deeper into April. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show an 85% chance of Low pressure lying over or close to the UK with rain at times for all in cyclonic winds should it verify. The remaining 15% show High pressure to the SW and Westerly winds across the UK with Atlantic troughs likely to just affect the North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a brief drier and brighter interlude towards the end of the week with a ridge of High pressure from the SW responsible. However, a trough to the NW will move SE and stall across Central UK over the weekend while pressure falls gently everywhere resulting in more showery and unsettled weather again for many areas to end the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a weakening showery airflow across the UK through the rest of this week as pressure builds from the SW. However, it becomes squeezed by a trough moving down from the NW and Low pressure across Europe. The trough is shown to stall across the Central UK with warmer air wafting North across Southern districts for a time at the weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM shows a changeable pattern across the UK in the coming 10 days as the current showery flow weakens in the coming days with a better end of the week for most as a weak ridge pushes across from the SW. Pressure then falls, partly responsible as a trough to the NW weakens and stalls across the Central parts of the UK with Low pressure becoming dominant from Europe and eventually lying across the UK with a very showery end to the period in temperatures no better than average levels. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure sliding SE just to the West of the UK over the weekend with some rain at times, mostly in the West but some for all possible in fairly slack conditions by this time next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning shows a ridge of High pressure at the end of the week stretching up from the SW across England but instantly pushing it away SE over the weekend with SW winds and troughs affecting Britain with rain at times for the weekend and start to next week. Then after several days pressure builds again from the SW and this time it's fine weather becomes maintained across the South with troughs affecting the NW of the UK with further rain at times likely late in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows High pressure to the SW and Low pressure to the North with Westerly winds over the UK with rain at times likely for all, as usual in these setups heaviest in the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable period of weather for all is the main theme from the models this morning 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 85.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 58.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.3 pts to 40.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Well after a very volatile Easter weekend with my own experiences very much driven by Storm Katie with large hail, thunderstorms, storm force winds and heavy rain we are looking thankfully at a rather quieter interlude of weather as we move through the rest of this week. Having said that the showery airflow across the UK will weaken only slowly with several more days of heavy showers and sunny spells before drier weather develops thanks to a ridge of High pressure moving up from the SW at the end of the week. The problem is that a trough of Low pressure will be moving down from the NW and pushing the ridge away SE and allowing a SW flow to develop with rain at first restricted to areas around the vicinity of the trough becoming more widespread later as pressure gently falls across the UK. Thereafter, the pattern becomes much less clear with a lot of output suggesting a return to unsettled and showery conditions across the UK as Low pressure is shown in various guises between the models to lie close by backed by ensemble data. It seem the previous anticipations of High pressure building to the North and NE of the UK has become less likely over recent runs which means that with time it maybe that the most rain falls across the North and West with time rather than the South and West. Temperature wise looks somewhat indifferent today and while there maybe some mild air floating about there is also some colder charts shown too with the rest keeping things generally close to average. So in summary while the next week of weather looks fairly reliably stated in this morning's output details are far less clear as we look through the second week although thankfully there looks no repeat of any stormy weather in the South that we experienced down here over Easter Sunday Night. Unfortunately there are equally few signs of anything particularly settled and Springlike shown as yet either. Next Update Wednesday March 30th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAR 24TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move ESE across the UK today, clearing the East early tomorrow and then followed by a ridge of High pressure crossing East tomorrow CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be in the range of 4000-6000ft asl with snow reserved for the summits of Scotland through today before all areas become mostly dry tomorrow. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled and often windy with spells of rain at times for all in temperatures closer to average. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will surge East to the South of the UK over the coming weekend and start to next week. then later the flow becomes more disorientated in both location and speed as an undulating pattern forms for a time before the flow reverts to an NE or East flow over Northern Britain towards the end of the two week period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the next week or so as very unsettled and often very windy as Low pressure becomes complex and widespread near the UK over the next week. Both Saturday and Easter Monday look very wet and potentially stormy on Monday while at other times it will be bright and showery with hail and thunder possible. Then towards the end of next week a drier spell begins with much more changeable weather in the second week with some dry days and others with a little rain at times especially in the west and South for a time and then in the North as a cold High pressure ridge slips South at some point through the second week. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar theme to the Operational Run with Low pressure well in control through Week 1 and only slowly losing it's grip in Week 2 with winds then switching more towards the SE and then East with most of the rain in the South and West in Week 2 with a cold Easterly flow developing then with dry conditions affecting the North and NE at the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a very unsettled pattern the most likely weather scenario in two weeks time with Low pressure well in control but with the positioning of this very unclear which could have major implications about how things feel at the surface with everything between mild SW winds and cold NE winds shown this morning. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled period coming up as Low pressure to the NW extends it's influence to all parts of the UK over the weekend with spells of rain or heavy showers for all with some brief drier and brighter spells too in temperatures near to average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex Low pressure gaining total domination across the UK in the coming days lasting well into the middle of next week at least. All areas will be affected by troughs at times delivering some heavy rain, driven along by strong cyclonic winds. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM looks very disturbed this morning with Low pressure maintaining control on this run throughout the period of 10 days. Low pressure will be to the North or over the UK in the first week with spells of windy Westerly winds and rain or showers at times. Then a change to rather colder conditions look likely from the second weekend, still with rain at times and maybe turning to snow at times over the hills as winds become NE at least for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows Low pressure in control over the coming week filling slowly towards the end of next week but not enough to prevent a spell of wet and potentially very windy weather at times especially over Easter itself easing only gently towards the second weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning shows a typical early Spring setup this morning as March winds combine with April showers at times with some longer spells of rain thrown in for good measure, all because Low pressure dominates throughout mostly positioned up to the NW of the UK next week and indeed over the UK for a time at the Easter weekend with SW or cyclonic winds strong to gale force at times. there appears little change in the overall pattern at the end of the run so this suggests further rain and showers as we move into mid April. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today remains locked as unsettled across the UK with Low pressure likely to lie quite close to the West of the UK with heavy April showers most likely with temperatures average but pleasant enough in the sunshine between the showers. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 85.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.0 pts to 58.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.2 pts to 42.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS After 10 days or so of fine and benign conditions being prevalent across the UK the weather is on the turn from today as the Jet Stream strengthens and is carried South across Southern Europe over Easter. Low pressure on the cold side of the Jet flow will form some quite powerful Low pressure over the latter stages of the Easter weekend and start to next week near to the UK with the risk of heavy rain and showers along with severe gales a very real possibility although temperatures at the surface given a predominant SW flow will be respectable numerically. Then as we move out of Easter and through next week changes look likely to be slow with further rain and showers through the week with some drier and brighter weather in between. Later next week Low pressure may fill and realign in positions as some model shows pressure building to the North and NE with a shift of emphasis of rain towards the West and South as colder air to the NE might filter across the UK from the North or East. How this theme develops remains quite elusive at this stage but it has been a factor of many runs recently especially from GFS so will have to be watched with interest over the coming days. If it does evolve a chilly start to April with some wintry showers in places seems possible although at the moment ECM who look forward 10 days doesn't seem to support GFS's findings and maintain wet and Atlantic based winds and conditions under Low pressure to the NW. What no model shows again this morning is any fine, settled and Spring-like temperatures with unsettled at worst and changeable at best the weather pattern that persists throughout the next few weeks along with average or slightly below temperatures looking more likely. NOTICE. Due to work commitments this is my last report until Tuesday March 29th Have a very happy Easter and keep dry. Next Update Tuesday March 29th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAR 23RD 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge across Southern Britain will collapse later today as troughs of Low pressure cross the UK from the West tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 5000-7000ft across the UK before falling towards 4000ft across Northern and western Britain behind the passage of the cold front tomorrow. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and often windy with spells of rain at times for all in temperatures closer to average. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will strengthen in the coming days with the flow moving NE across the UK by the weekend. This flow then sinks South of the UK over the coming week before moving somewhat further North across Southern Britain in the second week with more of an undulating flow setting up late on in the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure becoming in control of the UK weather over the next few weeks. In the first week Low pressure will lie in a position close to the UK with showery spells with longer spells of rain and strong winds too. Then after a brighter and drier interlude towards the middle of next week under a transient ridge Low pressure is shown to return with the heaviest rain from this likely over the North and west with temperatures close to average maintained throughout. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar theme to the Operational Run with low pressure in control throughout. However, having said that the end of the period is shown to see colder air slip down from the North as pressure rises very High over Greenland introducing the chance of some wintry showers and sharp Spring frosts in places. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a very mixed pattern again with Low pressure in close proximity to the UK from many members with a 40% majority indicating a centre of this to the East and SE of the UK which would mean cool and unsettled weather the more likely pattern across the UK then. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled period coming up as Low pressure to the NW extends it's influence to all parts of the UK by the weekend with spells of rain or heavy showers for all with some brief drier and brighter spells too in temperatures near to average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show unsettled and windy conditions across the UK starting from tomorrow. then through the weekend further wet and windy conditions will spread east over all areas on Saturday with strong and blustery SW winds for many. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning takes a course towards very unsettled conditions with rain and showers for all with gales too at times. This weather pattern remains in place throughout the rest of the period with temperatures close to average at sustained dry weather very much at a premium. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a very unsettled spell of weather developing across the UK over the Easter weekend and persisting through the early and mid parts of next week ending with a deep and vigorous Low pressure lying across the South of the UK with rain and showers for all through the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning continues to look very unsettled with Low pressure maintaining control with rain and showers for all areas on each day. A short brighter period is hinted at late next week but Low pressure then to the NW maintains influence across most areas to end the period in near to average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today has offered no change to what has been shown for days now with Low pressure to the NW of the UK with a trough across the UK and a Jet Stream too far South to be ideal for the UK in delivering anything other than spells of rain and showers at times in temperatures close to or just a little below average for early April. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 86.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 58.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 45.2 pts to 44.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The message from the models this morning is as underlined as ever in bringing unsettled and windy conditions across the UK tomorrow and following a brief break on Good Friday the weather is shown by all models to go downhill rapidly on Saturday leading into a sustained spell of wet and windy weather over the UK for the coming week or two. There is odd intervals when drier and brighter conditions may be obtained but all in all the prospects remain Low pressure based with strong winds from the SW likely at times too. Temperatures will probably be close to average but the strong winds at times will make it feel distinctly cool especially when it is raining. Longer term there seems little optimism for anything other than maintained unsettled conditions as the Jet Stream stays along way South and spells of rain and showers keep piling in from the Atlantic. GFS offers the only resistance to this as it shows a lot of High pressure building at Northern latitudes with a colder regime later but if this evolved it could well become drier too with the risks of frosts at night greatly increased. The unfortunate part is that we are now entering April soon and many would be expecting a solid drift into sunshine and warmth this morning to replace the dismal cloudy and benign Winter just passed but I'm afraid it's more of the same over the coming few weeks which will make the time of year seem no different to what's gone but on the plus side if the sun does come out between the showers we will be reassured that better conditions may just be around the corner astronomically at least. Next Update Thursday March 24th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAR 22ND 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge lies across Southern UK today. Over the next couple of days it weakens and declines away South as a Westerly flow develops across the UK with troughs swinging East on Thursday http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 5000-7000ft across the UK in the coming couple of days with no risk of snow anywhere in the UK through that period. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more unsettled and breezy with rain at times for all in temperatures closer to average. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will strengthen in the coming days with the flow moving NE across the UK by the weekend. This general theme of movement of the flow will be the main theme of the flow next week before the flow breaks up and becomes much more ill defined in both speed and location in the second week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a much more unsettled pattern developing for the UK as we move through the latter stages of this week and over the Holiday weekend. So some useful rainfall will fall for many with unfortunate timing for the holiday weekend but with some drier spells too once troughs pass East. Then from later next week dry and fine weather looks like returning with temperatures on the decline again leading to a cold and potentially showery spell especially over England and Wales as Low pressure to the South and High pressure to the North sets up cold Easterly winds for many. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows changeable conditions developing from Thursday as troughs and then Low pressure move into the UK from off the Atlantic in time for the Holiday weekend. Then with this unsettled and sometimes windy theme lasting for a week or so the theme towards drier and colder air engulfing the UK again is shown although less prolific than with the Operational. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today have switched to a much more settled picture as High pressure takes up a more prominent role over the UK position unclear. Just 35% of Clusters indicate Low pressure in control today with rain at times in places. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a steady dip into much more unsettled weather after tomorrow as troughs move East on Thursday and more extensively from Easter Saturday with rain at times thereon with the UK shown to lie on the Eastern side of deep Low pressure just West of the UK with a Southerly flow for many early next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the slow decline into more changeable conditions across the UK as pressure steadily falls later this week and over the weekend with a succession of troughs delivering rain but with some brighter spells in between especially over Good Friday. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning looks very unsettled from the end of this week as Low pressure across the Atlantic makes much more progress into the UK following some rain on a trough on Thursday. Next week looks distinctly unsettled as Low pressure is shown to sit over the top of the UK filling slowly but maintaining rain and showers across the UK for all of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a change to unsettled and windy weather as we move through the Easter period following an entrance into this more unsettled regime by a weakening cold front bringing the first rain for many on Thursday. Low pressure to the West or NW over Easter and beyond maintains the risk of rain at times for all areas with some brighter intervals at times too in often windy conditions in temperatures close to average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning is looking distinctly unsettled once the shift towards these type of conditions arrive at the start of Saturday. following a decent day on Good Friday and a band of rain on Thursday. Low pressure then settles across or near the UK for all of next week with rain and showers expected for all at times with some notable strong winds on occasion too and temperatures close to the seasonal average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today has offered another chart showing a very unsettled spell of weather coming up with Low pressure well in control to the NW of the UK with spells of rain and SW winds across the UK towards the middle and end of the next working week. With SW winds predominating it is unlikely to be cold anywhere with temperatures more likely to be close to average offset by the conditions at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 86.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 58.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 45.2 pts to 44.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS A period of wet and windy weather is on course to reach the UK on Saturday and continue off and on for the rest of the period. In the shorter term we still have to remove the fine and benign weather conditions that the UK have been under for some time as the High responsible declines away SE and allows the winds to switch to a Westerly source with the first trough crossing East over the UK on Thursday. Good Friday doesn't look too bad as a transient ridge moves across before falling pressure brings a sustained period of wet and at times windy conditions lasting over the second half of Easter and the period thereafter too. Then while most outputs maintain the unsettled theme right out to the term of the runs with Low pressure maintained over or near the UK GFS has moved towards a spell of Northern blocking later in the period with winds switching Easterly with Low pressure to the South and cold and showery weather most likely should the weather take this route. However, this is just one option that might develop and it is just GFS that shows it and it maybe that the more unsettled period under UK based Low pressure might be more likely. So in summary a spell of wind and rain mixed with sunshine and showers is the theme of weather over the next few weeks with no real guaranteed settled and spring-like conditions on offer this morning. Next Update Wednesday March 23rd 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY MAR 21ST 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge lies across the UK today. Over the next couple of days it weakens and declines away South as a Westerly flow develops across the UK by midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 5000-6000ft across the UK in the coming couple of days with no risk of snow anywhere in the UK through that period. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more unsettled and breezy with rain at times for all in temperatures closer to average. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is quite weak currently. However the flow is strengthening across the other side of the Atlantic and this stronger surge will move across the Atlantic and the UK by the end of the week. Once here the flow backs Southerly and the UK lies in a trough in the flow for some while later in the weekend and next week as Low pressure lies close by to the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a much more unsettled pattern developing for the UK as we move through the latter stages of this week as the current High pressure ridge collapses away South and a strengthening West or SW flow develops. Some wet and windy spells will then occur but with some drier and brighter spells in between with temperatures overall close to the seasonal normal. Later on in the second week the weather is shown to remain changeable for many with some chillier air lurking to the North and NE of the UK. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the operational with the fine period coming to an end soon after midweek as a trough swings East across the UK. This is then followed by a more mobile SW or South flow across the UK with rain and wind at times for all areas mixed with some shorter, drier and brighter spells with temperatures well up to the seasonal average before a shift towards colder weather takes shape towards the end of the second week as Low pressure takes a more Southerly track and cold High pressure builds to the North leading us into a cold and showery start to April in Easterly winds. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today continue to project Low pressure in control of the UK weather, most likely positioned just to the West or NW with just a 20% pack reversing this theme having Low pressure to the South similar to that of the Control Run. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning continues to project a major pattern change in the weather towards the second half of this week, deteriorating further through Easter. So a few more days of fine and benign conditions are shown before troughs cross West to East over the UK towards Easter in turn followed by a dip into deeply unsettled conditions later in the holiday weekend with heavy rain or showers at times for all in close to average temperatures at best. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well today illustrating the decline of a High pressure ridge over the coming days towards a theme of a trough moving across the UK from the West on Thursday with some rain for all for a time. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning looks very unsettled from the end of the month with Westerly winds and rain at times the likely scenario under Low pressure lying close by to the North. It won't be raining all the time and some brighter spells will occur between the rain-bands in temperatures close to average but feeling cool at times in the strength of the wind. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a change to unsettled and windy weather as we move through the Easter period following an entrance into this more unsettled regime by a weakening cold front bringing the first rain for many on Thursday. Low pressure to the NW over Easter maintains the risk of rain at times for all areas with some brighter intervals at times too in often windy conditions in temperatures close to average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning maintains it's theme of a dip into a deeply unsettled spells over the Easter weekend and through next week. Over the next few days though benign conditions remain with the first rain for the South not expected until Thursday with a decent day for some on Good Friday. It's from Saturday on that the charts show a wetter and windier period with spells of rain followed by heavy showers for all in temperatures near to or a fraction below average with time http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today has offered another chart showing a very unsettled spell of weather coming up with Low pressure well in control to the NW of the UK with spells of rain and SW winds across the UK towards the middle and end of the next working week. With SW winds predominating it is unlikely to be cold anywhere with temperatures more likely to be close to average offset by the conditions at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 85.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.1 pts to 58.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 45.5 pts to 44.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS No change in the unity between the models in their underlying campaign to push the UK into an unsettled and windy spell of weather from the Easter weekend onward. There are still a few more days of benign conditions expected across the UK before changes begin to take shape in the form of a cold front crossing East on Thursday which will be the first appreciable rain for many for well over a week. Then Good Friday looks as though it maybe OK for many as a transient ridge moves East across the UK but hard on it's heels will be falling pressure as Low pressure over the North Atlantic deepens and moves in closer to the North of the UK. Westerly winds will then carry spells of rain and showers across the UK through the remainder of the long weekend and well into the second week. While temperatures will be close to average with wind and rain around it will feel chilly but OK in any brief brighter intervals, of which there will be some. Then as we look towards the outer reaches of this morning's output High pressure looks like it might be trying to build again to the North of the UK and if this develops further cold weather could be a theme of April with a traditional mix of sunshine and heavy, possibly wintry showers with more importantly frosts at night which is not good news of course for farmers and growers. That's all of course a long way off but it is a recurring theme between outputs at the moment so worthy of mention. So while nothing unusual for the time of year is shown this morning there is no evidence of Spring warmth of note either and it maybe we have to put up with standard Spring unsettled weather for quite a while before some more sedate and warm Spring weather arrives within the models hopefully quite soon. Next Update Tuesday March 22nd 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY MAR 20TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure to the West of Scotland with a ridge of High pressure over Scotland will slip South over the next 24 hours with the ridge across more Southern areas tomorrow and Tuesday with more of a Westerly flow across the North of the UK from then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 4000-6000ft across the UK in the coming couple of days with no risk of snow anywhere in the UK through that period. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and cloudy at first then becoming very unsettled across the UK over Easter and the end of the month. Temperatures returning to near normal. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is quite weak currently with the Southern arm the strongest portion of the flow at the moment well down across the Med and North Africa. This will weaken through the week as the northern arm strengthens somewhat over the Atlantic through this week steered North across the UK for the Easter period and remains blowing North or NE across the UK in the post Easter period until the end of the month. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a much more unsettled pattern developing for the UK as we move through this coming week as the High pressure to the West weakens away South and SE through the first half of this week. This backs winds off to a SW point with cloud and rain spreading SE across the UK soon after midweek and setting up a more changeable Easter Holiday with Low pressure to the NW of the UK well in control. It won't be raining all the time however and it may well be that some drier spells are possible in the South and East with the heaviest rain in the North and West while temperatures return to nearer the seasonal average for many. This pattern then persists for the remainder of the run taking us into early April. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the operational with the fine period coming to an end soon after midweek as a trough swings SE across the UK. This is then followed by a more mobile SW or South flow across the UK with rain and wind at times for all areas mixed with some shorter, drier and brighter spells with temperatures well up to the seasonal average for the remainder of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show an 80% bias towards Low pressure across the UK or just to the West with a cyclonic flow across all areas of Britain with rain at times for all in average late March-early April temperatures. just 20% indicate something a little drier under slacker pressure.. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a change on the way as High pressure slips away South and SE through the week. Troughs of low pressure affecting the North from Tuesday extend South soon after midweek opening the door to more unsettled and windy weather for Easter with rain or showers at times in a strong SW flow as Low pressure anchors out to the NW of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure weakening over the coming days as it slips towards the South next week with fronts moving across the UK from the West heralding rain by soon after the middle of the week heralding a more mobile Atlantic weather pattern. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning also shows a slow decline into more unsettled conditions under SW winds from midweek. However, it maybe that the worst of the conditions may hold off from the South and SE of the UK until later in the Easter weekend when all areas lie close to deep Low pressure with heavy rain and showers and blustery SW winds leading proceedings for all then out to the end of the month. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a change to unsettled and windy weather as we move through the Easter period following an entrance into this more unsettled regime by a weakening cold front bringing the first rain for many soon after midweek. It maybe with low pressure held well to the NW that although windy the South and East may not see as much rain as points further North and West over Easter itself. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning once again shows the steady decline to Low pressure becoming influential to all of the UK. However, it takes a little time to do so and it will probably be Easter itself before the real unsettled weather takes hold across the far South with just patchy rain for a time soon after midweek opening the door to the West to more vigorous Low pressure and fronts later in the weekend. From then and into the post Easter period cyclonic conditions prevail with low pressure close to or over the UK delivering spells of rain and showers under temperatures no better than average for many. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart today shows Low pressure close to Scotland with the UK lying under a trough. the Jet stream is South of the UK with the likely weather across the UK being unsettled with rain at times for all under near to average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains universal support for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas over and beyond the Easter weekend 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 85.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.0 pts to 59.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 44.7 pts to 44.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models remain solid in support for a major change in weather type as we move towards the Easter weekend as for the first time for a couple of weeks Low pressure looks like regaining control over the UK under a SW flow. It maybe some time before the last influences of the ridge of High pressure finally gives ground sufficient to allow much in the way of rain to affect the SE of the UK but all areas should of seen a spell of rain at least by Good Friday. Following that SW winds look like strengthening markedly across the UK for all and this will allow temperatures to rise towards average at least though the effects of this will probably be lost on the strength of the wind and the fact that it will probably be raining for some of the time. Through Easter itself pressure will be falling across the UK and late in the holiday weekend and into the second week Low pressure looks likely either to be sitting over or close to the UK with bands of rain and showers with average Spring temperatures for many. Then if I was to take a stab at where we go weather-wise as we move into April I would suggest that on current evidence that further unsettled and Atlantic based weather looks likely to be the most likely weather type but with some pleasant drier periods under transient ridges allowing some Spring warmth to shine through at times. However, having said that it looks unlikely that any very warm or cold conditions notorious on occasions at this time of year looks likely given this morning's charts. Next Update Monday March 21st 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY MAR 19TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure to the West of Scotland will move slowly Southwest over the next 24 hours or so maintaining the slack Northerly flow across the UK backing more towards the NW over the North tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will fall a little over the next 24 hours or so especially across the North and East where the temperature will fall from close to 6000ft to a little under 5000ft by tomorrow. No snowfall is expected though across the UK over the next day or so. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and cloudy at first then becoming very unsettled across the UK over Easter and the end of the month. Temperatures returning to near normal. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains blocked for a little longer until the High pressure block to the West of the UK collapses early next week with the Jet flow strengthening and realigning close to the South of the UK for the end of next week and week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a much more mobile pattern developing as we move towards Easter and through the second week as Low pressure replaces High pressure up to the North and NW of the UK with rain at times for all in strong winds and average temperatures, the rain heaviest and most prolonged towards the North and West GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the operational with the fine period coming to an end early next week as Low pressure develops from the NW and replaces High pressure with spells of rain and showers for all with average temperatures and some March gales in places too at times as we reach towards the end of the month. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today though still somewhat mixed indicate an emphasis towards more unsettled based Atlantic driven weather as we end the month with rain at times for all. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning develops a much more mobile pattern as we move towards the Easter holiday with rain at times developing for all with time, last to reach the SE with temperatures close to average by then in a blustery Westerly flow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure weakening over the coming days as it slips towards the SW next week with fronts approaching from the West heralding rain by the middle of the week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning winds up the Atlantic too next week as High pressure declines away to the SW early next week. This opens the door to the Atlantic Jet stream and Low pressure to enter UK airspace with spells of rain and gales especially over Easter itself equally possible for all areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also indicates a change to unsettled and windy weather as we move through the middle of next week and then Easter as Low pressure deepens to the NW and moves closer in to Northern Britain with associated rain and SW gales affecting all areas at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure slipping away SW next week with pressure falling for all. Rain bearing fronts will affect the UK from midweek, most active in the North and West to begin with but with pressure falling steeply over Easter all areas will become decidedly unsettled with rain and strong winds at times in temperatures close to or a fraction below average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows the Jet Stream well South of the UK with Low pressure close to NW Britain. Cyclonic winds across the UK would ensure wet and windy conditions mixed with sunshine and showers the likely weather pattern in temperatures close to the late March average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is universal support now for the UK to enter a very unsettled spell for all areas by the Easter weekend 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 85.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.5 pts to 59.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has regained the lead from ECM with a score of 44.5 pts to 44.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS From a personal point of view I don't like the look of the charts this morning as I'm doing an outside event at a craft fair in a gazebo over the Easter weekend. Almost without exception the charts from all models show Easter as an unsettled and windy affair and a few charts suggest something potentially stormy possible with rain, heavy at times a very common feature of the holiday weekend. In the short term we have to see the demise of the large High pressure just to the west of Scotland currently and it will be another 4-5 days before it's influence to the UK is entirely lost. There will be some rain in the NW early in the week and this then slips South to all areas in time for Easter as winds back to a more Westerly point everywhere. Then it's just a matter of how unsettled it gets and most output suggests that it will become very unsettled and windy with rain at times and showers at others. While temperature values may indicate average levels it can only feel cold in the strength of the wind and when it's raining. Once we leave Easter the weather looks like maintaining a very unsettled picture as Low pressure is shown to maintain full control of the weather over the UK with rain at times and temperatures remaining close to average.. For those looking for a taste of Spring warmth this morning's output is not looking very hopeful but on the plus side the cold Northerly flow that was predicted for Easter over the UK within early this week's output appears dead in the water now with what we've got not un-seasonal and unusual shown for this time of year instead. Next Update Sunday March 20th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY MAR 18TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure to the NW of the UK will persist with a slack Northerly flow down across the UK over the next few days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain around the 6000ft mark over the weekend so with the freezing level above all summits of the UK no snowfall is expected anywhere, http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and bright at first then becoming less settled later in the month especially but not exclusively in the North and West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains blocked by a large High close to the UK. The theme is for the block to persist for a time diverting the flow well North and South of the UK for the next 4-5 days. Thereafter, the flow becomes more active placing the UK under a trough as it undulates North and South close to Southern Britain through Week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure continuing to control the weather across the UK over the next 3 or 4 days as High pressure slips slowly South just to the West of the UK over the weekend. Then a ridge is maintained across the South from it early next week with more unsettled conditions affecting the North quite early next week extending slowly South so that by Easter deep Low pressure to the NW will bring rain and strong winds to many followed by a showery spell of weather in cyclonic conditions. By the end of the run pressure has risen somewhat from the South with the more unsettled conditions more towards the NW in average temperatures overall. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the operational with the fine period continuing for a while longer but as High pressure declines away to the SW next week Low pressure developing to the NW will spread rain and strong winds across all areas by Easter, a theme which persists then for the rest of the run with an unsettled and windy Easter but with average temperatures out to the end of the month. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today remain mixed with conflicting signals from members with a slight bias favouring a SW flow with rain at times likely across the UK in 14 days time. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a slide into more unsettled and windy weather next week as Low pressure to the North and NW of the UK by then replaces the recent quiet and benign conditions with rain at times and temperatures closer to average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure still in control over the period although it becomes increasingly squeezed away to the West next week as troughs begin to queue up to the West and NW of the UK by then. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning is the one model who maintains the risk of a cold Northerly flow as we move towards Easter displacing the quiet weather with a day or so of cold Northerly winds towards Easter with some wintry convective showers in places before over Easter itself a ridge returns across the UK in rather cold air masses drawn West across the UK from Europe. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure based conditions continuing over the UK slipping away to the South by the middle of next week as pressure falls to the North and NW with a SW flow developing with rain and showers moving SE to all areas in time for Easter. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure declining away SE too next week but it does so in a rather slower way than UKMO for example with only occasional rain reaching the South in time for Easter before a slip into somewhat deeper unsettled conditions develop for all over Easter itself as Low pressure to the North and NW exert more influence. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows the Jet Stream South of the UK and an unstable South or SW flow likely across the UK in 10 days as Low pressure anchors out to the West and NW of the UK with rain at times but with winds from a South or SW point it could be an awful lot colder than it will be with some warm sunshine between the showers. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is shift of theme towards a spell of unsettled westerly winds to develop across the UK over Easter and into April as the Jet Stream realigns close to the UK as High pressure slips away South. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 85.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.4 pts to 59.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has regained the lead from ECM with a score of 44.1 pts to 43.8 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The weather looks like changing next week as our High pressure area looks likely to move away to the SW of the UK with Low pressure in various guises moving down across the UK from the NW. The models have moved away from a previously projected cold Northerly and moved more towards an unsettled Easter period due to low pressure out to the North, NW or even the West. This looks like that we are more likely to have winds from between South and West rather than from the North hence a rather milder prospect. However, that's where the good news ends as with Low pressure over a Bank Holiday weekend means only one thing and that is of course unsettled weather with rain at times. The North and West as always look like receiving the most of the bad weather though rain is expected for all at times along with brighter spells and showers in between. There are still a few notable exceptions to this theme shown between the models with GEM flying the flag still for a brief Northerly and wintry showers while GFS are still very muddly within their cluster data. However, leaving all that aside it does look more likely now that our fine and benign spell of weather will end at some point next week with the UK entering a phase of very typical Spring weather with rain and wind at times alternating with sunshine and showers and temperatures finishing up close to normal for late March. Next Update Saturday March 19th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAR 17TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will drift slowly West to the North of Scotland allowing the chilly NE flow across Southern and Eastern Britain to back to a more Northerly direction tomorrow and the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise from near 4000ft across the South at first to be nearer to 6000ft across the UK tomorrow and the weekend with no snowfall expected across the UK with the freezing level well over even the highest summits. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and bright with some frosts at night. Probably becoming less settled later in the month especially in the North and West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains blocked by a large High to the North of the UK. The theme is for the block to persist for a time diverting the flow well North and South of the UK for the next week or so. Thereafter, the flow focuses on a point to the South of the UK as the block continues to collapse through week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure continuing to control the weather across the UK over the next 3 or 4 days as High pressure continues to lie close to or over the UK with a lot of cloud trapped in it's circulation. Next week shows more variable conditions as on this run Low pressure to the South may allow some rain to feed up into Southern and Western areas with High pressure declining to the NE by Easter. Then after a variable but not too bad an Easter break weather-wise another surge of unsettled conditions are shown to develop in Week 2 from the South as Low pressure once more disrupts it's way to the to the South of the UK with the end of the run ending with Low pressure taking a more traditional Northerly track with a Westerly flow with rain at times moving in from the West for all. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows High pressure holding on across the UK through the first week as it centre remains over or close to the North of the UK. Over Easter quite slack pressure conditions would give a benign and rather cloudy Easter with unspectacular temperatures but not much rain. Then in the second week the weather remains quite quiet before pressure falls from the SW with strong SE winds and rain followed by a less chilly SW flow with further rain ends the period for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show complete disagreement between members with 4 equal shares of 25% split between Low pressure governance and that of High pressure across the UK in two weeks time. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning for the first time has shown the weather breaking down from the North next week as the High pressure across the North of the UK accelerates away to the SW early in the week with Low pressure spreading wind and rain SE over the UK by the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure in control over the period although it becomes increasingly squeezed away to the West by the start of next week with several weak troughs moving South across the UK at times ensuring plenty of cloud and a little drizzle feasible anywhere at times. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning quite settled over the next week as High pressure continues to wobble around close to or over the NW of the UK with the weather watchers chasing areas of cloud across the UK and rather cool conditions at times. Then as we move through Easter the weather is shown to deteriorate from the North with Easter looking cold and unsettled with rain or wintry showers looking likely for many especially over the East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure based conditions continuing over the UK up until Easter as this run shows the High maintaining control lying close to the South of the UK next week before a North/South split in conditions look likely over Easter with rain at times especially across the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure lasting for another 4-5 days as it meanders further West and SW out into the Atlantic as we move into next week. This will then gradually allow pressure to fall from the North similar to the way UKMO shows this morning but perhaps less dramatic with a ridge following a couple of days of cool and unsettled weather and the ultimate return of Atlantic and Westerly winds with rain at times and average temperatures for all by Day 10 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows an unstable West or SW flow looking likely in 10 days with Low pressure out to the NW with the Jet stream crossing East close to Southern England and High pressure well away by then to the SW or SE so rain at times in average temperatures look the most likely conditions the UK find ourselves in. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still much indecision between the output this morning in the way the general theme of High pressure loosening it's grip evolves as we move towards the Easter period and beyond. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 85.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.2 pts to 59.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 45.3 pts to 44.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The weather patterning over the next few weeks looks as unclear as ever this morning as all outputs differ in the way they handle the breakdown from the current High pressure as we move towards Easter. In fact some output show just a partial breakdown with a lot of benign and quiet conditions looking likely whereas there are a few more supporters of a cold Northerly flow looking possible or a more Westerly based pattern. But coming back to the here and now and all models show another 4-5 days of relatively fine if rather cloudy conditions with a chill in the air the most likely weather as the High pressure responsible wobbles around the North and later out to the West of the UK. It's what happens to the High after that which is far less certain with GFS maintaining it across the UK for a time with an eventual breakdown moving up from the SW with cold and damp conditions developing in a SE flow while UKMO, GEM and ECM show an attack from the North with a spell of cold and windy conditions with some rain and hill snow looking possible close to the start of the Easter weekend melting into a Westerly flow thereafter from ECM. Which is right remains unclear and yesterday I know I favoured the then version of ECM and Westerly winds developing soon after Easter and I still feel that remains my thoughts. However, it would be unwise to discount the chances of a colder and more unsettled theme under a much colder airflow either from the North or East with some of the main output notably from GFS looking so volatile towards this evolution. As usual more runs are needed so watch this space. Next Update Friday March 18th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAR 16TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure close to NE Scotland will maintain a chilly NE flow across the South with a very weak front crossing West over England and Wales today. CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be highest in the North of the UK over the next few days with levels around 7000ft-8000ft. In the South the levels is falling behind today's weak cold front to around 3000-4000ft for a time. Apart from snow grains over Welsh hills tomorrow morning there will be no snowfall anywhere. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and bright with some frosts at night. Probably becoming less settled later in the month especially in the North and West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains blocked by a large High to the North and NE of the UK. The theme is for the block to persist diverting the flow well North and South of the UK for the next week or so. Thereafter, the flow focuses on a point to the South of the UK as the block collapses somewhat through week 2 http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure continuing to control the weather across the UK over the next week or so as it's centre moves West then South just to the West of the UK. The cool and chilly NE flow will slowly back North or NW and decrease with time but this will also allow a lot of cloud from the Atlantic to slip down across the UK next week. Then as the High pressure declines later the Easter period looks like becoming rather cold and unsettled with showers or longer periods of rain for a time with snow on hills. Post Easter then looks staying chilly but drier again especially over the North and East with any rainfall then looking most likely towards the South and West as pressure builds again to the North. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar theme over the period although the dynamics of the breakdown around the Easter period result from a slightly different pressure distribution. Nevertheless Low pressure looks like spoiling the Easter period with rain at times and perhaps some snow on hills with bluster winds before somewhat drier weather Post Easter as High pressure builds to the NE again. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show 45% of members suggesting a Scandinavian High pressure area holding sway across the UK in two weeks time as a ridge from it extends down across Southern Britain. There is also a mix of options numerically around 55% of members who show Atlantic Low pressure close to the UK with rain or showers at times and average temperatures. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure situated just to the West of the UK by Day 6 having moved slowly West then South from it's current position just to the NE of the UK. This means that the weather is going to be remaining settled with little in the way of rain but also a lot of cloud at times hence somewhat chilly feeling conditions at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate slow changes over the coming 5 days with cloud amounts the main talking point in an overwhelmingly dry and fine period across the UK as the High responsible shuffles to a position just to the West of the UK by next Sunday. Weak fronts crossing South in the flow will continue to enhance the extent of cloud at times too. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning looks very settled as High pressure looks like maintaining domination across the UK right out to day 10 which includes the start of the Easter weekend. The centre of High pressure will drift West then South before becoming anchored over or just to the West of Ireland next week with a slack Northerly flow across the UK delivering fine and settled weather but with a lot of cloud at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the same fine weather persisting well into next week as High pressure readjusts it's position to a point to the West of the UK by early next week. Pressure is then shown to decline from the North towards midweek with some rain and fronts heading into the UK from the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure moving West then South to the West of the UK early next week with plenty more fine and settled weather if rather cloudy at times for all areas. The keen NE breeze in the South should back Northerly and decrease by the weekend. Then as we move through next week and towards Easter pressure will begin to leak away from the North with the Easter period looking like developing a North/South split in the weather to develops as pressure becomes High over France and Low to the North with Westerly winds for all and rain at times developing across the North and West in particular with average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows a Westerly flow across the UK along with the Jet stream. With Low pressure to the North and High pressure more towards a point South and SW of the UK a shift towards some rain at times especially across the North and west is likely over the Easter weekend along with close to average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Things still look unclear as we move towards the Easter period with no real cross model support on any one evolution this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 85.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.7 pts to 59.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 45.1 pts to 44.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS High pressure continues to maintain the focus of attention between the models over the next week or so as it just shuffles around over the next 3-4 days to end up at a point to the West of the UK early next week. All the time this feature stays close to the UK the Atlantic is blocked with the Jet stream diverting bad weather systems well North and South of the UK. A weak northerly flow looks like displacing the cool breeze in the South by the weekend but the NW will become cooler and cloudier by then with all areas seeing a dry and benign weekend with mostly cloudy and cool skies for most. Then next week it's all about how the models try to displace the High to introduce more unsettled conditions as usual towards a Bank Holiday weekend.. However, not to be too much of a pessimist i think there is a 50/50 chance that Easter might turn out OK with no heatwave but nothing alarmist either. GFS is the worst case scenario this morning with rather cold and unsettled Easter weather shown. However, it's Clusters suggest a strong chance of a Scandinavian High affecting the UK while the likes of ECM preferring a Westerly flow across the UK with High pressure close to the South and milder weather with some rain in the North and West it's message. This is strongly endorsed by the 10 day mean Chart this morning too. So my view is that anyone thinking that there will be a wintry period around Easter may be somewhat disappointed as it is becoming less likely as I think ECM has probably got the right handle on this with the most likely result being a Westerly flow of sorts across the UK with rain at times gradually becoming more widespread later in the Easter weekend in temperatures close to the late March average. So while there will be no barbecues or sunshades likely at Easter there shouldn't be any need for snow shovels either and thick thermals either. Next Update Thursday March 17th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAR 15TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure will remain very high over the UK in the coming days. A weak warm front followed by a cold front will move West across England and Wales tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 6000-7000ft asl under strong High pressure bit the level may fall to around 5000ft tomorrow behind the cold front moving West. No snowfall is expected across the UK today. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and bright with some frosts at night. Probably becoming less settled later in the month especially in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains blocked by a large High to the North and NE of the UK. The result of this is the flow is diverted both South and North of the UK before declining High pressure next week makes for a less defined pattern to the flow yet to be properly determined.. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure moving slowly West or SW from a point to the NE of the UK over and away to the West and SW of the UK all this time maintaining bright and fresh weather with sunshine at times and little or no rain. then as we move towards Easter a glancing blow at a chilly NW flow could bring a chilly period with a few showers towards the NE before milder SW winds but High pressure close to the South offers some rain in the NW while the South and east of the UK stay largely dry and bright with temperatures near average over the Easter weekend GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows the same High pressure moving West across the UK through the rest of this week and weekend with it's largely fine and settled conditions maintained. then as we move into the run up towards Easter the weather looks like turning more unsettled with some rain at times and a marked chilly day or so under a transient Northerly with some wintry showers in the east before milder air at times encroaches in and over the UK from the Atlantic towards the end of the month. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today have now endorsed a more definitive pattern to be set up for the UK in 14 days time. Most members follow a Low pressure route now with it's centre somewhere near NW Britain with milder SW winds and rain at times in average temperatures the most likely scenario for the UK in two weeks time. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure on the move West and then South to lie across Southern areas by the early days of next week with a milder Westerly flow developing across the North. The weather looks like staying dry and fine for the most parts with a chilly breeze in the South and East dying down by the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate the High pressure 's movement West or SW over the North of the UK through the week. With the UK lying on the Southern flank of the High chilly NE winds are shown to drag weak troughs West in the flow at times each bringing increased cloud cover at times and more suppressed temperatures. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning looks very settled too over the next 10 days as High pressure slowly transfers from a position just to the NE of the UK to one just to the SW by next week extending a ridge across Southern Britain. This prevents the earlier projected cold plunge to affect Europe this far west and keeps temperatures respectable throughout the period especially given the increase of Atlantic Westerly flow across the North next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too looks very similar to the general theme shown by most output this morning with High pressure moving from a point to the NE to one to the SW of the UK by this time next week with largely fine and settled conditions continuing for all areas in temperatures close to average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning looks a little isolated as it is the only operational run this morning that still shows a cold Northerly or NW'ly flow across the UK as we move towards Easter though it is somewhat moderated from what was shown yesterday. Nevertheless after another week of fine and quiet weather next week would become chilly and unsettled as Low pressure is steered down from the NW or North with North and NW winds with rain and showers likely by then with snow on hills possible. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart has moved towards a less cold theme than it showed yesterday at it's 10 day time point as it now shows weaker Low pressure to the East and NE, High pressure well to the SW and a pattern of Westerly winds across the UK with some rain at times over the North. There are still a few members who continue to project a colder Northerly possible though this result has far less support this morning. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards a cold and unsettled Easter has been lessened today with a more likely South/North divide looking most popular across the models this morning with the best weather retained in the South for Easter itself. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 85.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.3 pts to 60.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 45.7 pts to 44.8 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There are some changes in the output this morning regarding the period around Easter. I'll talk about those in a minute but for now the message is the same as was with High pressure in complete control of the UK weather. High pressure just to the NE is maintaining a chilly NE flow across the South with the best temperatures maintained across Western Scotland. Cloud amounts will vary and could be quite large for a time near the East coast and other areas too for a time tonight and tomorrow as some very weak fronts move West. Then as we move through the weekend prospects remain good with rather less breeze in the South as the High pressure moves slowly West and SW across the North to a position to the West of the UK. Then the general theme looks for the High pressure to slip South towards a point SW of the UK but maintaining a ridge across the South. This is where the differences come into play as the general message from the models appear to be for Westerly winds to take hold across the North perhaps with some rain while the fine weather holds on over the South. If this pattern continues to be shown then Easter could be a good deal milder than was shown yesterday with temperatures nearer to average and less chance of wintry showers. Nevertheless, ECM still shows a chilly theme under North winds up to Good Friday and it looks like this could be maintained for the rest of Easter too with a large blocking High over the Atlantic so all is not lost for those looking for a cold and showery convective period over the long holiday weekend. However, it should be noted that it's 10 day mean chart this morning has taken a step towards the majority of output in suggestion for a less cold Westerly rather than a cold Northerly looking increasingly likely for Easter. I'm sure we will see the picture become much clearer one way or the other in the coming days. Next Update Wednesday March 16th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY MAR 14TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure will remain very high over the UK in the coming days with a high centre across the North Sea responsible for fine and settled weather across the UK for the next few days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 6000-7000ft asl under strong High pressure which as a result will not allow for any snowfall across the UK for some considerable time. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and bright with some frosts at night and near average temperatures by day. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is responding to a block of High pressure across the UK at the moment with the undulating flow over the Atlantic splitting into two arms one well to the South and the other well away to the NW of the UK both moving in an Easterly direction. The flow becomes more variable later with no definitive pattern as High pressure remains fairly close to the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure in complete control of the weather across the UK for much of the next few weeks with the centre drifting slowly west or SW across the UK through the next week or so. This will maintain fine and bright weather especially in the NW whereas a chilly breeze and cloudier skies will likely affect the South at times. Then through the second week and as we move towards the Easter weekend it looks like there will be a change towards more unsettled conditions with rain at times especially in the South as Low pressure edges down across these areas from the North and then West but a High pressure ridge then returns again later in that weekend. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows the same High pressure moving West across the UK through this week with it's largely fine and settled conditions maintained but then accelerating quicker West from next weekend and allowing a cold second week with things turning more unsettled under Low pressure with rain and hill snow becoming likely for many through the second week and over the Easter weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today are back to their un-decisive nature again this morning with the 14 day point showing a mix of 4-5 options all with supporting members amounting to around 20% and ranging from unsettled conditions in association with Low pressure across the UK to a ridge with things much more settled and with temperatures closer to average. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure in control this week before retreating away towards the SW over next weekend. With much of the UK lying on the chilly side of the High it is left to the NW to receive some early Spring warmth while the rest of us might feel rather cold in a chilly NE breeze at times. Then at the weekend a Northerly flow looks likely for all and though still dry for many pressure will start to fall across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate the High pressure 's movement West to the North of the UK through the week. With the UK lying on the Southern flank of the chilly NE winds are shown to drag weak troughs West in the flow with the ebb and flow of cloud amounts throughout. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning looks very settled too over the next week or so as High pressure remains in complete control with just patchy frosts and cloud disrupting the early Spring look of things. Towards the end of the run High pressure appears to be declining and moving away West to allow an attack from the North of cold and showery weather for what looks likely to be in time for the long Easter weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows High pressure receding West later this week as it moves SW from it' current positions towards a point SW of the UK in a weeks time. A dry and fine week for many this week with varying amounts of cloud and sunshine looks under threat from the NW by the start of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM too looks to be setting up a disappointing Easter weekend as the High pressure under complete control of the UK weather over the next week slowly gives way to the West early next week and opening the door to the North for low pressure to bring very chilly North winds and wintry showers over Easter with frosts at night. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart has strengthened it's theme of suggesting a cold and showery northerly airflow developing across the UK in time for Easter as High pressure recedes to the SW and Low pressure over Scandinavia drags colder and unstable air down from the North with the Jet stream easing South of the UK once again. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to show a protracted fine spell lasting for a week and possibly a lot more across the UK before signs of a chilly and showery Easter weekend looks equally likely on this morning's evidence. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 85.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.8 pts to 60.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 46.3 pts to 45.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The main focus on the models this morning is the growing theme of a rather chilly Easter coming up from the models as most output shows the grip that High pressure has on the UK weather lessens next week as it recedes slowly to the West of the UK. In the short term namely through this week and next weekend any changes will just focus around varying amounts of cloud day to day and the nagging and chilly NE breeze likely to be maintained across the South of the UK through the week. NW looks best for warmth especially early in the period while elsewhere daytime temperatures though near average might feel a bit cold at times but any rainfall will be very light and restricted to windward coasts and hills and from low cloud feeding in from the North Sea. Then we are increasingly seeing signs of change from the models as we move through next week as the High recedes to the West and opens the door for the UK to be under attack from the North. There are several differing versions of the way we might evolve through this period but there is sufficient evidence to say that there is a strong chance of Easter being rather cold and showery at least and a few members this morning illustrate something more generally wet and cold for a time with no doubt some snowfall over hills. It still is a fair way off and with the differing scenarios within the general theme on offer it suggests to me that nothing is guaranteed as yet so in the meantime we should enjoy the largely fine and dry conditions across the UK this High pressure is giving as it's a welcome break from the recent rains and strong winds. Next Update Tuesday March 15th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY MAR 13TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure will remain very high over the UK in the coming days with the weak frontal troughs across the NW decaying and moving away North in the next 24 hours. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain in the range of 6000-7000ft asl under strong High pressure which as a result will not allow for any snowfall across the UK for some considerable time. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and bright with some frosts at night and near average temperatures by day. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is blowing NE across Iceland at the moment a position it maintains for some considerable while. There is also a southern arm of the flow too for a time across Iberia but through the two weeks the UK lies well away from the core of the flow as it maintains generally well North and South of the UK http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure in complete control of the weather across the UK throughout the next few weeks. It's position varies a little day to day but it never loses firm control for all with plenty of dry and fine weather with just slight variations on amounts of cloud and a chilly breeze day to day the main focus for forecasters. Towards the end of the Easter weekend the charts show a brief cold Northerly developing down across the UK as Low pressure dives SE over Europe but High pressure looks set to build back down from the NW by month's end. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run looks very similar with just the caveat that Easter could become rather cold and unsettled as slack Low pressure areas move into the UK with rain or showers at times and snow on hills. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a bias of 65% to 35% in favour of maintaining High pressure in some sort of control of the UK weather in 14 days though within this group there i indecision on positioning of this feature. The other group of members show Low pressure from off the Atlantic regaining some control of the weather across the UK.. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure in control all of the coming week with the centre right over the top of the UK by the end of the week with fine and settled weather throughout. Varying amounts of cloud and sunshine will lead to day to day differences which also determines whether night frosts and fogs occur or not but no rain is expected anywhere this week http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well but better illustrate the less straigthforward day to day differences might manifest as weak fronts bring a chill East wind and more cloud cover with perhaps a little drizzle across Southern areas for a time towards midweek or thereafter. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning looks very settled too over the next week or so as High pressure remains in complete control with just patchy frosts and cloud disrupting the early Spring look of things. Towards the end of the run High pressure weakens away east allowing some ingress of Atlantic fronts and patchy rain by the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows complete High pressure domination across the UK now for the next week with the centre moving South across the UK late this week and next weekend allowing a weak West or SW flow to develop across the North by the end of next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is looking very settled across the UK for most of the period with it's version of High pressure movements taking it to the West of the UK late in the period threatening a cold Northerly flow for a while in the second week with perhaps some showers near eastern coasts. However, it's just a keen breeze and cloud amounts in the South this coming week which could mar a fine settled period for otherwise for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows a High pressure ridge across Southern areas with growing support for a change at around the middle of the second week for Low pressure off the Atlantic to edge it's influence South across Northern Britain later next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to show a protracted fine spell lasting for a week and possibly a lot more across the UK. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.3 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 86.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.1 pts to 60.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 47.2 pts to 45.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS After a day away from the models I can see that there have been few changes to them since Friday with the unanimous version of today's report focusing on the persistence of the High pressure area now well developed near the UK. So we can all look forward to a protracted dry period with just the usual early Spring caveats of 'how much cloud and cold wind' is going to affect the South of the UK in particular as we enter midweek this week and possibly beyond. This if course will have a direct impact of the feel of things out and about and it may well feel quite raw for a time f cloud and the cold east wind coincide which currently looks as though they will. This of course leaves the NW with the best sunshine and probably highest temperatures this week as the High centre lies close by. Then as we move into the second week and towards the Easter holiday there are still no clear cut messages given apart from the fact that some output wants to maintain High pressure in one for or another right up to Easter and possible Easter itself although there is equally strong hints that Low pressure could make inroads back into the UK from off the Atlantic by then not forgetting also that a few members want to still put the UK under a cold Northerly for a time towards the Easter weekend with ECM looking on board with that theory today. However, all in all a decent spell of weather to come where drying ground will enable the early season ground preparation to take place though gardeners and growers would be well advised against putting tender plants etc out into the open for some considerable time yet as frosts at night remain a strong probability at times over the rest of the month. Next Update Monday March 14th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY MAR 11TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong ridge of High pressure lies across the UK as it continues to build further, killing the remains of the weak trough across Central UK. However weak fronts on a mild SW flow will bring some light rainfall to the NW at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise over the next few days especially to lie around 5000ft across Southern and Eastern UK and to 7000ft across the NW. As a result no snowfall is expected anywhere across the UK over the next few days. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less cold and mostly dry with some sunshine by day and frost at night. Perhaps becoming less settled again later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is now blowing North over the Atlantic to Iceland where it remains for several days. As we move through next week a deep trough across the Atlantic sets up a Southern arm which then becomes the main arm as it migrates slowly North to lie on a West to East axis across the UK. In the second week a split flow seems likely with one arm to the South and one to the North of the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of High pressure near to the UK over the next few weeks so a dry spell for many to come. The High pressure zone will lie to the East or NE at firtst with a light Easterly flow developing before it veers slowly towards the South as the High slips away to the SE. Then through the second week with slack pressure some rain is possible for a time before new High pressure develops to the NW and delivers another dry spell but possibly a rather cold Easter in winds and air across the UK from a chilly source to the North and NE. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very much the same as the Operational Run today with a greater emphasis on the cold developing across the UK towards the Easter break perhaps with some wintry showers in places and certainly frosts at night. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a bias towards Atlantic Low pressure in control to the North or NW across the UK in 14 days time. It does go against the theme of the Operational and Control Runs today though with just a 30% cache of members showing something akin to those runs. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows sustained High pressure building across the UK over the weekend and through the early part of next week as it drifts slowly North across the East of the UK and starts to recede away to the NW later next week. Dry and bright for much of the time with respectable day temperatures but some chilly and frosty nights should skies clear. Signs of chillier air then is hinted at Day 6 coming down from the North or NE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well with fine and settled weather dominating across the UK as High pressure takes complete control of the weather for all once the weak troughs in the NW at the weekend move away West. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning keeps the UK locked under High pressure centred close to or for most of the time over the UK with fine and at times sunny weather though with frosts at night. With light winds and reasonable uppers March sunshine should lift daytime temperatures to average if not a bit above whereas frosts at night are likely too. At the end of the 10 day period pressure is shown to lie just to the West of the UK with a slack Northerly across the UK maintaining mostly fine weather for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows complete High pressure domination across the UK now for the next week and probably more as the High drifts and wobbles around the vicinity of the UK next week eventually displacing any mild and damp SW winds across the NW at first. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is looking very settled across the UK for the foreseeable future with High pressure in total control gradually positioning near to the North of the UK from early next week and feeding a gentle dry Easterly flow across the UK with the situation looking virtually unchanged by Day 10 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart this morning shows some indecision in it's 10 Day chart. On the face of it there is a slack Westerly flow shown between Low pressure well to the North of the UK and High pressure still influential to the South. The operational is supported though within it's ensemble group but with some mebers showing something much more unsettled and therefore somewhat diffusing the end chart's authenticity today. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to show a protracted fine spell lasting for a week and possibly a lot more across the UK. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.1 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 86.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.4 pts to 61.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 47.5 pts to 46.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The charts this morning could look a lot worse and if it's fine and settled weather which lasts for a considerable while you seek then your in luck this morning as there looks very chance of any significant rainfall across the UK for at least 10 days and probably more. We still have to remove the milder and damper SW flow afflicting the NW for a few more days before High pressure completes it's job in extending influence to all areas from Sunday. What is less clear is how much of this High pressure is going to deliver in the way of cloud as it is only March and like Winter anticyclones this one could well give rise to some quite cloudy days and as a result a little bit disappointing and cool. However, that's the only negative in an otherwise very useable period with the added daylight hours now helping to offset any cloudiness and coolness. Some sunshine will inevitably occur at times and where it does it will feel very pleasant but those same clear daytime skies could translate into clear night one's giving rise to frost in places. Then looking into the distant reaches of this morning's output GFS continues to want to bring cold and potentially a little wintry conditions towards Easter as a cold plunge looks likely across Europe. However, ECM and some of the rest prefer to keep this plunge harmlessly away over Central and Eastern Europe with High pressure remaining close by for us and I feel this is more likely making Easter a useable one if not a record breaking one. However, in model runs terms that remains an occean away for now and in the meantime let's all enjoy some very pleasant early Spring conditions in the next few weeks when we may continue to need a coat but hopefully it will just be used to keep out a chill rather than rain. A day off from the models from me tomorrow but will return on Sunday. Next Update Sunday March 13th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAR 10TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening occluded front will lie across the East of the UK weakening further through the day as pressure rises strongly across the UK. Further weak fronts will approach the NW later tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise over the next few days especially across the North and West where the generally close to 3000ft freezing level across the SE will rise above 5000ft across NW Britain tomorrow. As a result no snow is expected across the UK today. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less cold and mostly dry with some sunshine by day and frost at night. Perhaps becoming less settled again later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to turn North towards Icland across the Atlantic over the coming days as pressure builds across the UK. the flow remains well NW for a time while the Southern arm of the flow becomes more influential to the UK as it migrates further North later next week in association with falling pressure. The flow becomes more variable for a time before reverting to a flow well South of the UK again is projected late in the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows pressure rising across the South of the UK over the next few days as Low pressure over the South subsides away South. A belt of High pressure then lies in a belt across Southern Britain by the weekend while the North sees milder SW winds and all areas will feel the benefit of milder air for a time. Next week then shows High pressure to the east and SSE winds maintaining quite mild weather ahead of fronts bringing a change to rain at times by the second week. Through that week a change again to cold and unsettled weather is shown as Low pressure slips to the South of the UK with rain turning to snow over hills and frosts at night possible once more. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a very similar trend to the Operational again this morning although it strengthens the theme towards cold easterly winds greater than the operational in week 2 as Low temperatures flood SW over Northern Europe and engages with Low pressure developing to the South and SW of the UK with some late March snow for many should it verify. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters once again today look very undecided on what the UK will lie under in two weeks time as all sorts of options are shown ranging from Low pressure across the UK with rain at times and much slacker pressure areas with benign weather and others with Low pressure to the South or SW bringing somewhat colder conditions. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows sustained High pressure building across Southern Britain in the next few days and extending slowly North later as it later rests over the North Sea. Milder air will engulf the UK for a while before temperatures ease back a little in the South later as an ESE breeze develops here but on the whole dry, fine and bright weather is expected by next week for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS From the Fax Charts this morning it would appear that substantially mild air is going to struggle to get down across the Southeast of the UK as a warm front introducing it continues to straddle the middle of the UK over the weekend. So while the North and West become milder with some rain at times in the far NW the South and East look like staying dry if rather cloudy and somewhat cooler than originally thought. Brighter conditions look like slowly extending NW early next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning keeps the UK locked under High pressure centred close to or for most of the time over the UK with fine and at times sunny weather though with frosts at night. With light winds and reasonable uppers March sunshine should lift daytime temperatures to average if not a bit above whereas frosts at night are likely too. At the end of the 10 day period pressure is shown to leak away SE with Atlantic fronts moving in from the West later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM once developed holds High pressure close to the NE of the UK before slipping it gently South down the North Sea next week with winds turning more Southerly later and maintaining fine and in places mild weather through the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is a very settled one again with High pressure extending across Southern Britain in the next few days time and then extending to all of Britain over the weekend and beyond as the High centre lies close by. Some bright Spring sunshine looks very likely for many with some frosts at night but temperatures by day would be close to average if not above overall but with some frosts under clear skies at night. At the very end of the run High pressure is shown to leak away to the SE with unsettled conditions looking likely to develop soon after Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart this morning continues to project a High pressure ridge likely to be lying across the UK in 10 days with fine and settled conditions in light winds most probable. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is well set for the weather to become fine, settled and less cold from the latter end of the week with solid cross model support for High pressure to build across or remain close to the UK for some time. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.2 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 86.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.0 pts to 61.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 47.3 pts to 45.8 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Changes since yesterday morning are small with regard to the prospects of a sustained and very welcome dry and settled spell of weather for all parts of the UK. With yesterday's inclement Low pressure well out of the way now the pressure is building strongly and will continue to rise over the coming few days so that a belt of High pressure from a centre near Denmark or Germany will keep Southern Britain fine and dry. In the NW we may have to wait a little longer as weak Atlantic fronts carry light rain and mild air across for several more day. However, as the High inches NW and North next week all areas become under the influence of it and this means we should all share in a lot of dry, bright and fine days with average or above average temperatures while nights are chilly with frosts in places where skies stay clear. It's not until the second week when cracks appear in this pattern with some output sliding High pressure away to the South and SE with the Atlantic winds returning or GFS which seems to favour a return to cold conditions as a cold plunge of Arctic air moves South over Europe and is steered SW towards the UK engaging with falling pressure to the South and SW with the threat of snow in places. While it does seem a repeating trend between runs I think the GEM, NAVGEM and ECM route this morning is the more likely one with a gentle return to less settled conditions with some rain at times more likely as we enter the latter stages of the month. Next Update Friday March 11th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAR 9TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A deep Low pressure across Southern England will move away SE across France later today and tonight with an occluded front across Central areas dissipating by tomorrow as pressure rises strongly across the UK under a ridge of High pressure. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be a little higher than recently at around 3000ft over the next few days before rising slowly from the West and NW over the coming days. Snowfall will be restricted to the highest hills of England and Wales for a time today. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less cold and mostly dry but perhaps turning rather colder again later with frost at night. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently about to change it's orientation to a position NW of the UK and moving in a NE direction as pressure builds across the UK. Then as we go through the weekend and next week the Southern arm of the flow becomes stronger and moves North to become the main flow by then crossing West to East over the UK. Finally towards the end of the period the flow becomes much more unclear in both positioning and strength. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows pressure rising across the UK over the next few days as Low pressure over the South subsides away South. A belt of High pressure then lies across Southern Britain by the weekend while the North sees milder SW winds and all areas will feel the benefit of milder air for a time. However as High pressure shifts further North showery rain will be pushed NE across England and Wales as a SE to east flow develops. Then it'a all about the return of more changeable weather across the British isels in a Westerly flow by the end of the period. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a very similar trend to the Operational again this morning with the exception of colder conditions shown sweeping South across the UK again towards the end of the second week as High pressure to the West spreads wintry showery South with frosts at night. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters once again today look very undecided on what the UK will lie under in two weeks time as all sorts of options are shown ranging from Low pressure across the UK with rain at times and much slacker pressure areas with benign weather neither fine nor wet. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure building across Southern Britain in the next few days and extending slowly North later as it rests over the North Sea. Milder air will engulf the UK for a while before temperatures ease back a little in the South later as an ESE breeze develops here. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS From the Fax Charts this morning it would appear that substantially mild air is going to struggle to get down across the Southeast of the UK as a warm front introducing it straddles the middle of the UK over the weekend. So while the North and West become milder with some rain at times in the far NW the South and East look like staying dry if cloudy and somewhat cooler than originally thought. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning maintains it's High pressure based predictions with the High centre mostly to the East or NE but never drifting far away from our shores. The weather will be benign for the most part with varying amounts of cloud and some sunshine and temperatures probably ending up close to average but with some night frosts at night. There are signs at the very end of the run that the High may be slipping away SE allowing Atlantic fronts into the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM looks very high pressure focused too with the centre gradually extending as a belt across Southern Britain and nearby Europe to a migration somewhat further North later displacing the cloudy, damp and mild SW flow in the NW up to the weekend. Fine and settled conditions prevail for many with temperatures close to normal and the risk of some frosts at night should skies clear. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is a very settled one again with High pressure extending across Southern Britain in the next few days time and then extending to all of Britain over the weekend and beyond as the High centre drifts further North. Some bright Spring sunshine looks very likely for many with some frosts at night but temperatures by day would be close to average overall and perhaps quite mild at first. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart this morning continues to project a High pressure ridge likely to be lying across the UK in 10 days with fine and settled conditions in light winds most probable. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is well set for the weather to become fine, settled and less cold from the latter end of the week with solid cross model support for High pressure to build across or remain close to the UK. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.2 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 86.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.0 pts to 61.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 46.3 pts to 46.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS This morning continues to project a change in the weather over the coming few days and then lasting for some considerable time. In the meantime we still have to get rid of this nasty Low pressure across Southern Britain this morning with it's attendant gales and heavy rain but once passed it looks like this could be the last heavy rain and strong winds we see in the South for quite a time. The orientation of the anticipated High pressure has changed somewhat over the last day or so and it now looks as if the High will lie in a belt across the South come the weekend with the mild Atlantic SW'lies affecting the North and West with a little rain at times here whereas in the South quiet and benign weather conditions will bring slightly colder air than first though here though it could hardly be described as cold. then as we move out of the weekend and through next week it looks like High pressure will extend across all of Britain with fine and settled weather with some sunshine by day and frosts where skies clear at night. Temperatures by day should be close to average and this might mean they fall back somewhat to levels expected at the weekend across the NW. With regard to the longevity of the spell the jury is out as a cocktail of synoptics from all models are shown for two weeks time offering no clues. however, there doesn't look to be anything alarmist to worry about within the next few weeks so let's sit back and enjoy a much welcome dry and fine period and with a bit of luck the strengthening sunshine at this time of year should signify thoughts that Spring proper is only just around the corner. Next Update Thursday March 10th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAR 8TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening trough of Low pressure will move Se across the UK today followed by a vigorous depression moving into Southern Britain later tonight and through tomorrow with complex troughing and gales affecting England and Wales. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be a little higher than recently at around 3000-3000ft especially across the South. There will be snowfall over higher ground of Scotland today and perhaps on the highest ground of England and Wales later tonight and tomorrow too as colder uppers are dragged down by heavy precipitation. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less cold and mostly dry but perhaps turning rather colder again later with frost at night. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream currently moving South over or just to the West of the UK will end soon as pressure rises from the SW from Thursday. This will then divert the flow well to the NW of the UK in a NE direction, probably near Iceland. Through next week this arm of the flow remains well North as well as weakening with a Southern arm strengthening over Spain and Iberia. This arm then becomes the dominant one late in the period gradually edging North but all the while remaining South of the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today offers a lot of fine weather across the UK in the next few weeks. The period is book-ended though by far from settled conditions at the start with a deep Low tomorrow bringing rain and strong winds to many before High pressure builds NE across the South of the UK in it's wake and then drifts slowly North maintaining fine and sometimes pleasant daytime conditions before temperatures fall back somewhat later next week under an East or SE flow though at this stage fine weather would be maintained. Then towards the end of the period High pressure declines to allow Atlantic Low pressure and fronts to edge across the UK from the SW and West with rain at times and average temperatures. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows similar conditions under High pressure for most of the time from the end of this working week. It's position shuffles around a bit and unlike the Operational Run maintains it's influence across the UK right out to day 14 with mostly fine and settled conditions with some mild days but with a trend to reduce temperatures with time especially by night with frosts in places. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show few if any clues as to where we will be in two weeks time. There is an even split between influence from both High and Low pressure near the UK with no firm theme shown today. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure building from the SW behind tomorrows deep, wet and windy Low pressure with the centre looking likely to lie just to the East of the UK with fine and settled conditions gradually developing UK wide. There could be a lot of low grey cloud in places for a while holding back otherwise mild temperatures but rainfall beyond tomorrow should become significantly less. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show slow changes across the UK in the coming 5 days. We still have 1 more inclement day to endure tomorrow under the rather cold conditions making Wednesday a very unpleasant wet day across the South in particular and I wouldn't be surprised to see more hill on it's Northern Flank as it clears. Then it's all about how quickly and decisively milder air from the SW engages with the rise of pressure occurs across all parts of the UK towards the weekend and how much influence weak warm fronts moving into the High pressure from the West interact under the High pressure likely to mean a lot of low grey damp cloud. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning is very High pressure based with fine and settled weather developing later in the week as well as temperatures on the rise to average or maybe a little above in skies brighten. There looks to be little significant change through next week with High pressure always nearby with varying amounts of cloud determining how mild the days become and whether frost is allowed to develop by night in always light winds. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM looks quite similar to GEM this morning building a belt of High pressure across Southern Britain by the weekend which is then shown to extend slowly North to a previously damper North by late in the weekend and the start of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is a very settled one with High pressure extending across Southern Britain in a few days time and then extending to all of Britain over the weekend and beyond as the High centre drifts towards Scandinavia and then back close to northern Scotland later next week. Some early Spring warmth is possible for a time dependent on cloud amounts though a general cooling breeze from the East is likely to develop across the South of the UK with time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart this morning continues to project High pressure lying directly over the UK in 10 days time. This being so the most likely weather would be fine and settled for most if not all of the UK and with any March sunshine it could become quite mild by day at times but still with the risk of frosts should those same cloud breaks occur overnight. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is well set for the weather to become fine, settled and less cold from the latter end of the week with solid cross model support for High pressure to build across or remain close to the UK. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.9 pts to UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 86.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.9 pts to 60.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 46.5 pts to 46.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS High pressure is soon to become the dominant role player in the UK weather over the next few weeks. I'm sure most people will agree this will be a welcome change to the recent rather cold and changeable weather which has followed on the back of sometimes cloudy and wet but very mild Winter. What type of weather is likely at the surface is all dependent on what the orientation of the High pressure ends up being along with it's positioning but my best guess taken from today's output is that the South will first see the effects of fine if cloudy and milder weather on the lead up to the weekend before this type of weather extends slowly North to a rather damper North as warm fronts there cross NE on the Northern flank of the High for a time. With the High pressure migrating somewhat further North later in the weekend and next week all areas are likely to become or stay dry and probably quite bright with temperatures very respectable especially in any sunnier breaks. Having said that as the High drifts North it opens the door to a flow of air from a chillier continent and it may well be that temperatures fall back somewhat under a chilly breeze and if it stays cloudy it could feel quite raw especially near the East coast. Then as the two week period covered by this morning's output closes the theme is how and if the High pressure declines to a point that Atlantic Low pressure is allowed to return either from the SW or NW and any indicators which way the dice will fall is very unclear from the long term outputs at the moment also endorsed from the long term ensemble and cluster data available too. So recapping a couple of welcome dry and fine weeks of weather seems likely to develop and while no particularly cold weather is likely any mild or Springlike conditions remain totally dependent on whether cloud amounts become favourably small enough to a point that would also accommodate frost by night. Next Update Wednessday March 9th 2016 from 09:00

Yes even a slight snow shower this morning in Kilmersdon at 200ft. Surprisingly sharp frost this morning despite little hoar frost visible on the fields

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY MAR 7TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will gradually cross East over the UK today and tonight followed by a weakening occluded front crossing East over the West of the UK tomorrow http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain around about the 2000ft mark for today but with mostly dry conditions away from a little showery snow over the peaks with exposure to the North. The Freezing level edges upwards towards tomorrow towards 3000ft across the South and West. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less cold and mostly dry but perhaps turning rather colder again later with frost at night. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream has a few more days of blowing South across or just West of the UK. By soon after midweek the flow severs and turns to a West to East flow to the North of the UK as High pressure slowly builds North and NE across the UK. This then sets up a period of an anticyclonic flow to the Jet stream around the UK as High pressure lies across us. Later the flow reignites and blows West to East across the UK in more unsettled weather returning from off the Atlantic. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run's theme today is for the current cold Northerly flow to be completely removed by later this week as a deepening Low crossing Southern Britain midweek with some heavy rain is the precursor to a strong rise of pressure later in the week with much milder air from the Southern parts of the North Atlantic wafting up across the UK. Then High pressure establishes across Britain with some fine and dry weather with some very mild Spring sunshine across the South and East very welcome for quite some time. Then towards the end of the period pressure collapses across the UK and on this run cooler and unsettled conditions make there way down across the UK late in the period. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar evolution with High pressure taking control of the weather centreing close to the UK next weekend. Any Spring warmth may be more temporary on this run though as the High moves North and a chillier Easterly flow sets up for a time across the South. Then a fairly rapid change in the second week as High pressure declines and Low pressure re-establishes to the North and East of the UK returning us to where we have been lately with cold and showery NW winds with showers turning wintry over hills. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today have returned to a colder pack this morning as many members form a camp that say NW winds will be blowing down across the UK in two weeks time with Low pressure close by to the North and NE of Britain. Of these a small 10% pack show a full blooded and cold NE flow across the UK with deep low pressure over France. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning to me looks less mild than previously thought totally due to the positioning of the High pressure in relation to the UK. So once Wednesdays wet and windy weather clears away High pressure ridges strongly across the South from a centre across Denmark and persists there through next weekend while the mildest SW winds affect the North and NW. With slacker variable winds over the South some night frosts could occur with dry and fairly benign daytime conditions. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show slow changes across the UK in the coming 5 days. We still have 1 more inclement Low pressure area to endure under the rather cold conditions making Wednesday a very unpleasant wet day across the South in particular and I wouldn't be surprised to see more hill on it's Northern Flank as it clears. Then it's all about how quickly and decisively milder air from the SW engages with the rise of pressure occurs across all parts of the UK towards next weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a deep low on Wednesday the last in the series of fronts and depressions that have delivered the recent spell of rather cold and changeable weather. High pressure builds in from the SW by the weekend bringing much milder and fair conditions for most of the UK. The mildness might not last long though as High pressure is sucked North and then NE to lie across Scandinavia next week allowing a feed of colder continental air to be drawn up across the UK then but still in generally dry weather with just the risk of a shower in the South and SE at the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows another version of the previously shown synoptic pattern that brings early Spring warmth to the UK by and through the weekend. Enabling this is the position of High pressure close to SE England drawing up very mild SW winds across the UK with some Spring sunshine in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows High pressure building up from the South towards the weekend following an inclement period of potentially wet and windy conditions on Wednesday. By the weekend pressure is High and building further across the UK with fine, milder and settled weather after a day or two of damp weather in the NW. The mild air is not shown to last long though as High pressure transfers North and NE towards Scandinavia and like GEM brings a colder ESE flow across the UK by midweek next week with potential trouble developing towards the South and SW of the UK.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The new 240hr mean Chart this morning shows High pressure anchored over the UK in 10 days indicating almost guaranteed settled and dry weather. The only differences between members is of course the resting place for the High cell determining the conditions that can be expected towards the surface in terms of temperatures and sunshine amounts. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is well set for the weather to become fine, settled and less cold from the latter end of the week with solid cross model support for High pressure to build across the UK though there is a theme developing which suggests the mildness may not last too long. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.7 pts to UKMO at 88.5 pts and GFS at 86.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.1 pts to 60.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 47.2 pts to 46.5 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There remains strong support for a marked rise of pressure across the UK later this week and lasting for some considerable time thereafter. In the meantime we have 1 more Low pressure cell to endure as it moves into the South of the UK by Wednesday with rain and strong winds and maybe some hill snow here and there for a time. Once passed pressure rises strongly across the UK and although a short mild and damp spell may affect the North and West in particular the theme of dry and mild weather developing for many across the UK by the weekend is a strong one. There are varying choices of the resting place for the High to position itself which has fundamental implications for the strength of the warmth and sunshine amounts that will grace our shores over the weekend and start to next week. For those thinking that this is the start of a long warm spell relative to March may be a little disappointed from this morning's output as there is growing signs that the High may be pulled North and NE of the UK next week which if verified would pull winds into the East or SE bringing less mild and possibly rather chilly conditions back across the UK though it would likely stay largely settled. If things don't decline by that method there is other output that shows High pressure slipping away and being replaced by a cold NW wind and showery theme with GFS carrying this theme supported by it's clusters and ensembles. So while taking all that into account there is a very welcome change ahead for mild and settled conditions across the UK for a time commencing from around Friday and lasting for a time before things probably turn somewhat colder again and possibly more unsettled by the end of the two week period. Next Update Tuesday March 8th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY MAR 6TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A chilly North or NW flow will continue across the UK for the next day or two with a disturbance running South close to Western Britain late today and for a time tonight. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain around about the 2000ft mark for much of the weekend but maybe a little higher than this across the far SW for a time late today and tonight. Snowfall amounts will be small or negligible for most through this weekend with any snow light and fleeting over higher ground exposed to the Northwest, North and NE. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and breezy at first with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Gradually becoming more settled and less cold then with bright days but cool possibly frosty nights. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream has a few more days of blowing South across or just West of the UK. By midweek the flow buckles NE and breaks off from the Southern element with the main arm then tracking NE well to the North of the UK becoming fragmented and variable in position and weaker in strength through Week 2 as High pressure lies close to the UK blocking any direct West to East passage. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run's theme today is for the current cold Northerly flow to give way to a cold and very unsettled day Tuesday as Low pressure spins SE down across the UK with strong winds, heavy rain and hill snow possible for a time. Then the middle of the week sees milder and cloudy conditions with further rain at times before High pressure builds up from the South across all areas settling the weather down to fine and sunny weather but with some night frosts. Temperatures by day look quite respectable before a return to unsettled and changeable weather is featured to return towards the end of the period, moving in from the West and NW. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a similar evolution with High pressure taking control of the weather centreing close to the UK in the second week. Any Spring warmth may be more tempered by different positioning of the High more to the North and NE on this run with the possibility of chilly conditions returning from the East especially later with a cold ESE wind picking up across England and Wales. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a bias towards High pressure probably most likely to lie close to SW Britain with it's influence stretching across much of the UK. Some members but a much less significant amount project the possibility of a cold Northerly with High pressure out to the NW but this is only shown by a 10% cluster. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a chilly wet period towards Tuesday and Wednesday as Low pressure moves SE across or just to the East of the UK with some hill snow still likely. Then a change to milder and lighter Westerly winds with some rain chiefly in the North sets up by next weekend with High pressure increasingly influential just to or over the South by the end of it's 6 day period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a very slow change to the pattern across the UK in the next 5 days. In the process will be several days of troughs straddling the UK from the NW then west with rain at times for all and cold enough for some snow at times on the hills up to midweek before the milder air off from off the Atlantic wins out later this week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning maintains the theme shown by GFS today in changing the orientation of movement of Low pressure systems away from the SE direction they have taken of late to a more easterly direction much further North of the UK. This has the effect of cutting off the cold NW or North feed and replacing it with milder Atlantic Westerlies. Pressure is then shown to build from the South by next weekend with a sustained spell of dry early Spring weather with sunshine by day but with an increasing likelihood of the return of chillier air and frosts at night as the High responsible migrates out to the NE of the UK later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows milder conditions take hold after a chilly and wet period towards midweek. High pressure then builds NE across Southern Britain gradually extending to many areas by next weekend. With a source of winds by then from the SW temperatures should recover to average or perhaps a little above by day although patchy night frosts may still be possible. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today follows the theme too with High pressure steadily building North across the UK by next weekend following the messy transitions from the current rather cold pattern with rain and patchy hill snow between now and more especially midweek. As High pressure builds a spell of Westerly winds and rain at times affects the North before all areas settle into dry and fine almost Springlike conditions with light winds. There is still plenty of scope for night frosts to occur and later in the run as the High drifts further North it maybe that temperatures by day fall back somewhat too as uppers cool a little and an Easterly feed to the wind might develop. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The new 240hr mean Chart seems late on release this morning but the main theme of the last night's chart seems unlikely to be changed much this morning given the Operational's message which has High pressure ridged strongly across the UK with a fine and benign weather pattern expected across the UK in 10 days with average temperatures at least for most parts. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is well set for the weather to become fine, settled and less cold from the middle of the week with solid cross model support for High pressure to build across the UK. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.7 pts to UKMO at 88.2 pts and GFS at 85.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 60.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 48.2 pts to 46.8 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There is considerable cross model support for a change of weather type as we move through this week with Wednesday or Thursday looking the likely day of transition. What we have now is the same rather cold and unstable NW airflow down across the UK with various disturbances threatening the UK with rain and hill snow at times. However by midweek a shift of the South flowing Jet stream to a less strong West to East flow North of the UK looks probable allowing rising pressure from the South to gradually extend it's influence at first to the South by the weekend and later to all areas with the possibility of a strong High cell sitting directly over the UK in a week or so. It would be too easy to say this will mean wall to wall sunshine and high Spring temperatures but we have to remember it is only March and cloud amounts could scupper this element of proceedings but nonetheless there looks like being a period of sustained dry conditions with light winds. Clear skies at night could allow for some night frosts but daytime levels look like being average at worst as hinted at before dependent on cloud amounts. Then as we look further out into the second week signs that the High might want to regress towards the NE North or NW are all shown by some output so the general feeling is that while staying dry temperatures could fall back somewhat as winds settle from an easterly or NE quadrant. This is all a long way off but it is nice to see sound cross model support for a period of High pressure to allow the extra hours of daylight and lower humidity values expected to dry up the ground in preparation for the Summer growing season. Next Update Monday March 7th 2016 from 09:00