Gibby

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY MAY 6TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure is falling across England and Wales as an area of Low pressure near Spain and Portugal becomes more influential over the coming days. The resultant ESE flow will carry an activating warm front NW across the UK tonight introducing air with high humidity values to many parts of the UK over the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK range from just above 5000ft over NW Scotland to near 10000ft over SE England. The level then settles to around 8000ft UK wide by and over the weekend. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather warm with thundery showers in the South. Perhaps rather cooler later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This remains for some time before the Low pressure area edges East and opens the door to a finger of the flow to move South over the UK as Low pressure develops East of the UK in a week or so. Then towards the end of the period the flow reverts back South of the UK in association with UK based Low pressure. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure developing over Spain and Portugal where it remains for some time before drifting ENE later next week. For the UK winds will be from the SE before backing more ENE next week with plenty of warm and humid air across the UK with the risk of thundery showers at times across the South inparticular early next week. Then as winds back Northerly late next week it looks like cooler and more showery air will track South across all areas with the showers mostly across the East. Towards the end of the run pressure becomes slack across the UK with still a lot of High pressure northern blocking evident further Low pressure and rain and showers seem probable in temperatures close to normal at the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN The New GFS Parallel Run is very supportive of the theme shown in he Operational over Week 1 but makes rather less of the unsettled weather of Week 2 with more in the way of weak but High pressure close to the UK in Week 2 with fewer showers as a result and spells of sunshine in very average May temperatures as a result. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1 GFS CONTROL RUN As above the first week is well agreed upon within the GFS Camp this morning with Week 2 showing the more varied weather options. This Control Run shows that Week 2 has pressure rising from the West with a strong ridge across the UK by the end of the period with fine and largely settled conditions likely for the UK by then. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today continues to be unclear in the latter stages of the forecast period this morning with the majority slightluy in favour of a weak Northerly across the UK in two weeks but with plenty of other options in the mix too. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a warm SE flow across the UK in three days time with the risk of thundery showers in the South. Then as we move through next week it looks like the risk intensifies and spreads North somewhat as the Low pressure to the SW over Spain advances NE through France backing winds off towards the East and later NE with cooler conditions likely to make there way across the UK later next week if the indicated movement process continues as shown. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show quite a complex scenario revolving around the movement of Low pressure over Spain and it's effects on the UK. Sunday looks the best day of the next 5 as the innitial push of thundery weather moves away to the NW behind a warm front introducing humid SE winds. Then early next week complex troughing looks like becoming straddled close to or over Southern Britain with thundery rain or showers more widespread and the best of the weather in the NW. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows very slow changes over the next 10 days with the same thundery low pressure area over Spain taking a whole week to begin to lose any threat to the South and SE of Britain with an eventual rise of pressure from the Northwest ensuring settled weather returns by Day 10 with the best conditions throughout looking likely to the NW with even by Day 10 something of a potentially showery NE flow close to the SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today follows the theme shown elsewhere of the eventual movement away from the South of the UK of the thundery Low pressure moving NE from Spain next week while filling slowly. The run ends with High pressure in close proximity in very slack winds with benign and pleasant conditions for many areas by next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is more clear cut in it's movement away from the UK of the Low pressure area over Spain, taking it across Europe next week and removing the risk of thundery rain and showers from the South by soon after midweek and lowering temperatures to more average values as winds back towards the North by next weekend. The run ends with High pressure in close proximity to the West and NW of the UK with the best weather there while there remain a cooler NE flow blowing from the North Sea over England and Wales with perhaps an odd afternoon shower over the SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) With so much uncertainty longer term this chart is not as reliable as usual in giving clues as to where we will lie in 10 days time. However, my best guess that there is an even distribution of members showing Low pressure to be both to the East and West of the UK with a slack pressure gradient likely over us with the risk of a few showers but a lot of dry weather too. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a warm and humid period of weather across the UK before a gradual reduction in both temperatures and showers look likely later though all with low confidence. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.7pts and GFS at 83.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.3 pts to 51.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 45.8 pts to 37.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Whenever pressure patterns across the UK are the reverse of the normal, i.e. the reverse of Low pressure to the North and High to the South the models always struggle with the longer term projections and the methods that they try to reset the pattern are always difficult to interpret accurately and as a result they throw up a lot of differences between the models. That is what we have currently with Low pressure becoming deep and anchored down near Spain and Portugal sending spores of energy North over France towards the South and West of the UK in the coming 4-5 days with thundery rain in places early and late in this period. In between there will be a lot of warm and humid weather with sunny spells. Then as the Low is forecast to move East or ENE across Europe next week the winds over the UK look like backing NE or North and this will lower temperatures to average with time. What is less certain is how much influence that European Low will maintain influence across the SE portion of the UK by late next week and how much will High pressure build across the UK in it's wake--all questions uneasy to answer within this morning's output. What is more certain is that North sea coasts are going to have a torrid time soon as while many of us enjoy warm temperatures sea haar looks like giving some very cool temperatures for several days on end over the next week in those areas and any removal of the present pattern would be very welcome news for them. However, having said all that there is nothing particularly nasty shown within the output this morning and it maybe that conditions become fairly benign in the second week with no overall pressure area, low or high having overall control of our weather across the UK. So let's sit back and enjoy this early season warmth and coupled with the chance at least of some warm thundery rain in the South the growing season should gather momentum over the next few weeks. No report from me tomorrow as I will be in Salisbury Wiltshire for the day but back on Sunday morning. Next Update Sunday May 8th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAY 5TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure remains high across the South of the UK with the weak frontal trough across the North of the UK continuing to weaken and decay over the coming day or so. With time an easterly flow will be developing across the South of the UK as pressure falls to the SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK at around 5000ft over the NW and up to 8000ft over the SE. The level rises further in the coming days to as high as 10000ft over the South and 8000ft over the North by the weekend so no snowfall is expected anywhere over the coming days. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming warmer with the risk of some thundery showers in the South at times later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream currently moving NE across the NW of the UK will continue to weaken over the next day or so with the main flow held under a cyclonic pattern across Spain while the northern arm remains a long way to the NW. Later in the period the flow will remain weak and broken around our neck of the world. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows fine and warm weather developing for many over the coming days with humidity rising at the weekend as pressure falls to the SW of the UK with some thundery rain moving North on Friday night and thundery showers possible over the weekend in the South. Then next month winds back more and more towards the NE and eventually North with the warmest conditions likely in the West with further thundery showers around in the afternoons. Then as the Low complex to the SE moves away winds back towards the West with pressure still quite high with a lot of dry and benign weather likely. Towards the end of the run a new High pressure is shown to develop across the UK fine, warm and settled weather returning to all parts in two weeks time. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of events illustrated within the Control Run is largely the same as the Operational Run with just small but subtle differences later in the period. On this run the latter period is governed by quite slack pressure with High pressure further to the North and the risk of showers remaining across the South in particular in continuing rather warm conditions. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today shows a lot of slack Low pressure over or around the UK with the risk of heavy showers continuing for many as we move through Mid May. With much of the air shown warm sourced the weather should continue to feel warm especially in sunny spells. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure developing down towards Spain and Portugal strengthening the airflow from the East and SE over the weekend. The air is inherently very warm and humid with an increasing risk of thundery showers in the South by early next week all this following a band of thundery rain moving North on Friday night. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the theme of the raw data well today showing persistent Low pressure down near Spain and Portugal with an ESE flow with troughs moving North close to the West on Friday night/Saturday morning and again towards the start of next week with pulses of thundery rain or showers at times but with a lot of dry, breezy and humid air across the UK at the weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows the same sequence as the rest as the Low down near Spain and Portugal sends a risk of occasional thundery rain or showers across the South at times within the next week with warm and humid conditions developing for many. As the Low weakens later winds fall light and eventually revert to SW as pressure falls to the West and NW with rain and showers moving in from that direction towards the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the same Low pressure area down to the SW of the UK by the weekend pumping warm East to SE winds up across the UK with warm sunshine and well scattered thundery showers. With time the pressure gradient falls out making for quiet and humid weather with slow moving thundery showers at times across many parts, a process that continues through to the end of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM shows a very similar path to events as NAVGEM today as the warm and strong ESE flow developing following a band of thundery rain moving North on Friday night brings humid and thundery conditions in places. Then as we move through next week the Low pressure to the South weakens with winds falling light and making for a lot of dry conditions but with slow moving thundery downpours for some as well. This pattern remains for Southern areas until the end of the period whereas further North a High pressure belt lying SW to NE will bring drier and slightly cooler conditions here to end the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows chances of a 'col' area developing over the UK in 10 days time. By definition an area between two low pressure areas and two higher pressure zones can often bring any type of weather with the best guess scenario leaning towards some showers but a lot of dry weather too in temperatures close to or slightly above average looking most likely. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a warm and humid period of weather across the UK which could last for quite a while as Low pressure remains likely to lie across Southern and Eastern mainland Europe and to some extent near the UK too. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.9 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.9 pts to 51.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 45.6 pts to 37.5 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The general theme of the weather over the coming two weeks remains largely unchanged from that which was shown yesterday. True there are small and subtle differences between the models the further out into the future we go but the general message remains that a lot of rather humid and showery weather is on the way to most areas perhaps most prominent over the South with the best conditions likely towards the NW. As mentioned yesterday the East coast could be a place to avoid over the next week as a sea fret and haar looks likely to develop north of the Humber but this does look like becoming less of a problem as we move into the second week when the Easterly or SE drift becomes less dominant. In the meantime the warming process is already well under way although the night's are still currently very chilly and it won't be until we get behind a band of thundery rain moving up the West side of the UK over Friday night that the risk of frost becomes entirely eliminated with winds too brisk by then and the air sourced from too warm and humid a source. Looking out into the far reaches of the output today there are still various scenarios on offer but in general it looks like staying on the warm side for many always with a risk of showers and in all honesty the charts look very seasonal this morning with ideal growing conditions underway across the UK over the coming few weeks once we can get rid of the risk of the present borderline night ground frosts. Next Update Friday May 6th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 4TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure is high over Southern England today as a couple of cold fronts move very slowly East across Northern areas today and tomorrow while weakening and eventually decaying in situ by Friday. A thundery Low pressure area will then develop to the SW of the UK resulting in a warm ESE flow across the UK by the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK rise to as high as 10000 feet across the South by the weekend while levels are slower to rise in the NW where they remain around 5000ft before rising to 7000ft or above by the weekend. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming warmer with the risk of some thundery showers in the South at times later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream currently moving NE across the NW of the UK will weaken in the coming days with the main cyclonic flow around Spain becoming the driving force over the weekend and next week before the flow becomes very light and split across the Atlantic and NW Europe with no clear definitive structure shown within the latter end of the forecast period this morning. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today still shows a lot of Northern blocking anticyclonic patterning over the next few weeks. Pressure will be lower across Southern Europe and later other parts of Europe too with the best weather eventually likely to be in the NW. In the meantime the weather will be much warmer than of late with sunny spells but with the likelihood of some thundery showers at times especially in the South but not everywhere will see them. Eastern Coasts continue to look like seeing a lot of fret and here it will be rather chilly for much of the time in an onshore breeze and on this run all areas become cooler at the end of the period as cold North or NE winds and Low pressure feed down the North Sea in two weeks time with some rain or showers. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational for the next 10 days with warm and later humid weather with some thundery rain in places especially in the South. Then the run diverges late in the run as a more traditional pattern of Low to the NW and South-Westerly winds reset across the UK with the best weather reverting to Southern and Eastern areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clusters today show the UK likely to be lying under an area of quite slack pressure biased towards lower pressure rather than high, so a lot of potential shower risk conditions in temperatures around or slightly above average with High pressure likely to be lying either to the NW, West or SW with the UK itself lying under shallow and showery Low pressure areas. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure developing down towards Spain and Portugal over the weekend with a strengthening Easterly flow across the UK. This will feed up the risk of thundery rain and showers towards the South and SW of the UK though most Northern and Eastern parts of the UK should stay dry and most areas it will become warm and humid. However, I cannot emphasize enough how much chillier it will feel near the East coast in an onshore and stiff wind with sea haar and fret persistent. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the theme of the raw data well today showing warm SE winds and a lot of dry weather come the weekend with just the chance of a thundery shower in the South and especially the SW between hazy but warm sunny spells. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a similar pattern over the next week as Low pressure developing over Spain and Iberia deepens and strengthens an Easterly flow across the UK with some fine and warm weather for many but also with some occasional thundery showers across the South and West. Then towards the end of next week this Low over Spain is sucked away to the NE and backs winds off to the North or NE across the UK with much cooler and unsettled weather with cold rain and showers at times spreading to all areas at the second weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the same Low pressure area down to the SW of the UK by the weekend pumping warm East to SE winds up across the UK with warm sunshine and well scattered thundery showers especially in the SW at first but to many more areas by the middle of next week as the pattern tries to reset to a more traditional UK pattern of Low pressure to the NW and High pressure to the South though it seem unclear whether such an attempt would be successful or not from the Day 7 Chart. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows warm weather developing later this week as the High pressure area currently near the South moves east and then North into Europe. The developing East or SE flow in association with deepening Low pressure over Biscay and Spain sends winds into the East with warm and humid conditions extending North across the UK by the weekend with some thundery showers at times down over the South and SW. Longer term changes look very slow this morning with the Spanish Low transferring into the Med and other parts of Europe maintaining an Easterly feed and the risk of showers across the South of the UK while the NW sees the best weather at the same time as all eastern coasts remain cool and misty. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows no pressure system having overall control though the theme of maintaining lower pressure across Europe and higher pressure just to the West or NW of the UK remains with the likely weather being rather showery in average temperatures at worst. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a warm and humid period of weather across the UK which could last for quite a while as High pressure is themed towards Northern latitudes and Low pressure likely to lie across Southern and Eastern mainland Europe. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.1 pts to UKMO at 87.1 pts and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 62.5 pts to 53.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 46.1 pts to 39.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The theme of the models remain largely unchanged this morning with the main theme being Low pressure to the South of the UK and the continuation of once established High level blocking to the North of the UK with an East or SE flow developing across all parts of the UK by the weekend. We are not there yet though and the North and NW will continue to see a few more days of Atlantic SW winds and rain at times as weakening fronts approach from the West. These then dissolve and decay come the weekend as the High pressure over the South currently drifts East and Southerly or SE winds push the warmer air NW to all parts. As already mentioned pressure will become low or even very low over Spain with some unseasonably wet and windy weather expected down there from the weekend and some out-feed of this will move North towards the South and West at times in the form of thundery showers from the weekend. Elsewhere there will be a lot of warm, and in places very warm and humid conditions with plenty of hazy sunshine that is of course if you live away from the East Coast as in these places any chance of warm weather will be thwarted by a developing haar which does look as though it could give days of cold, breezy and dull conditions especially the further North up the North Sea coast you travel. This pattern then looks fairly set for a week or so before looking longer term it does still appear that there could be a desire to shift the Spanish Low more towards mainland Europe and the Med with winds backing to the NE or even North and it could be that colder conditions will end up being fed South through the UK with some showers in the East later. Another option shown is the chance that pressure may rebuild to the South of the UK on the exit East of the Low pressure over Spain with winds trying to counteract the Northern High pressure blocking with a slow change towards SW winds and rain returning more towards the North and West later. All these long term options look very tentative this morning and should be used as a guide rather than a forecast but for now the next week or so looks pretty well set between the output which should ensure all areas away from the East coast becomes warm, occasionally sunny and bright if breezy with time with the chance of a few thundery showers in places-especially in the South. Enjoy. Next Update Thursday May 5th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 3RD 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will develop across Southern Britain through the next 24 hours while troughs of Low pressure moving into the NW will weaken and decay as they try to move into the High pressure further SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK rise above all summits over the next few days, rising from around 3500ft currently to as high as 10,000ft across the far South by the coming weekend. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming warmer with the risk of some thundery showers in the South at times later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream currently moving NE across the NW of the UK will weaken in the coming days with the main focus of the flow driving South across the Atlantic towards Spain and Iberia where Low pressure will anchor for some considerable time. Then later in the period the whole Jet stream structure becomes broken and ill defined around our patch of the World. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of Northern blocking anticyclonic patterning over the next few weeks. In contrast Southern Europe in particular those areas near Spain and Iberia will experience unsettled conditions under Low pressure for a lot of the period. For the UK this means a lot of Easterly winds and warm weather across the UK with some thundery rain working it's way up across Southern Britain at times. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational for the next 10 days with warm and later humid weather with some thundery rain in places especially in the South. Then the run diverges late in the run as a more traditional pattern of Low to the NW and Westerly winds reset across the UK with the best weather reverting to Southern and Eastern areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clusters today show the UK likely to be lying under an area of quite slack pressure biased towards higher pressure rather than low, so a lot of dry and fine weather but with the risk of showers in places. the minority pack of members support rather more of an Atlantic influence to the weather under Low pressure to the NW. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a drift towards warm weather moving up across the UK from the SE later this week and particularly over the weekend. There looks likely to be a lot of dry weather too with Low pressure held quite a way to the SW and just the risk of a few thundery showers at times especially in the South and SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the theme of the raw data well today showing warm SE winds and a lot of dry weather come the weekend with just the chance of a thundery shower in the South and especially the SW. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning looks like becoming warm and dry later this week under a Se and later easterly flow with occasional thundery showers especially in the South. then towards the end of the run subtle changes in positioning of pressure systems back winds to a colder NE or North direction with some showers moving down across eastern Britain late in the 10 day period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today maintains the them shown by the above output but does bring unstable air deeper into the UK at the weekend with a more widespread scattering of heavy, thundery showers in quite humid air. The Easterly flow then supporting these conditions is shown to strengthen in a weeks time as the Low pressure area near Spain deepens. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows warm weather developing later this week as the High pressure ridge currently developing across the South of the UK drifts it's way East and allows warm continental winds to drift up across eventually all areas. They may not be dry winds though as some thundery showers look inevitable especially across the South. Then later in the period the theme seems to be for winds to back more towards the NE and for all Eastern areas at least to become cooler, perhaps notably so later with further showers at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows slack pressure across the UK made up of a variety of different options shown between the members. The best description of the likely weather as a result would be humid and showery for most with no one pressure system having overall control. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a warm and humid period of weather across the UK which could last for quite a while as High pressure is themed towards Northern latitudes. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.2 pts and GFS at 83.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.1 pts to 54.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 46.9 pts to 39.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There is a distinct agreed theme between the models this morning of very much warmer weather on the way to almost all regions by the coming weekend. The showery Westerly flow across the North currently will weaken today as a ridge of High pressure across the South builds. The air at this stage is still relatively cool and a frost in sheltered parts tonight is possible but that may well be the last frost for quite a while as each day warms and the weakening troughs in the NW tomorrow and Thursday decay further. Winds then turn SE across the UK by the weekend with warm uppers drawn up across the UK from Europe with temperatures easily exceeding their previously highest values so far this year. The air looks quite humid though and with pressure becoming low over Iberia we will have to watch and indeed expect some influence from that moving into Southern and SW Britain at times late in the week and in-particular over the weekend. This will take the form of thundery showers at times but they are unlikely to be widespread. I should also note that some impacts from winds off the North sea could bring a lot of cool sea mist and haar to many Eastern coasts especially in Scotland from the weekend and this will make things contrastingly miserable for folks living there. Then as we look further ahead into next week and beyond changes look slow with a weaker Jet flow then and with pressure seemingly remaining high to the North or NW it maybe that this eventually allows much cooler winds from the NE to reach the UK later. However, this is just one evolution of many that may develop in what is quite an unclear pattern from later next week. So as I hoped my return this week has marked a change to Spring proper as warm and humid seem likely to be the key words used to describe the weather across the UK over the next week or so at least and with a sprinkling of heavy and thundery showers around from the weekend it does indeed seem a much more seasonal forecast from any that I have produced recently. Next Update Wednesday May 4th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY APR 29TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression over NE England will drift out into the North Sea today and fill slowly as a cold and showery NW flow also weakens by tomorrow ahead of a ridge of High pressure moving in from the SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to endure very low uppers for the time of year with the freezing level between 1700ft and 3000ft across the UK coupled with wintry showers falling as snow at times. Later in the weekend the levels rise from the West as an Atlantic flow takes hold with the freezing levels rising above all hills apart from over Scotland late on Sunday and Monday as behind a cold front uppers fall back again to around 3000ft with snow showers over the mountains. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming warmer and eventually drier especially in the South at first and the North later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is realigning West to East across the UK over the next few days as the cold Low pressure areas finally dissolve and move away East. The flow then continues in it's new location for some time gradually reforming a trough like pattern over the UK again later before changing to a NE moving flow across the NW of Britain to end the run. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very mixed bag of weather over the UK in the coming few weeks but it's not all bad news as it will be less cool than recently. A SW flow with occasional rain early next week is displaced by higher pressure especially across the South with some pleasant Spring sunshine. Some of this warmth wafts further North next weekend as the High responsible drifts away to the East. Lower pressure then edges across the UK from the West with occasional rain and showers at times before the end of the run shows High pressure making a strong return across the South at least with some warm and sunny weather developing with any unsettled conditions contained well to the NW. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational in theme of warmer conditions countrywide on the way and although never entirely settled there will be plenty of very useable conditions under slack pressure zones over and around the UK giving warm sunshine and some showers to almost anywhere. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clusters today just about show a bias toward Low pressure lying to the West of the UK and a warm Southerly drift for the UK. It must also be mentioned that there are many other alternatives on offer so still no true cohesion between members on what exact weather type we will have at that time. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a blustery West to SW flow early next week with some blustery showers in places before High pressure ridges up from the South by midweek with warmer and drier conditions especially across the South and East where it looks like becoming largely dry and pleasant from Wednesday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the theme of the raw data well today showing better conditions under Atlantic winds likely by the middle of next week although these winds ares shown to bring troughs East and SE at times with rain at times especially in the North and West. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning looks quite changeable through it's run with the most notable feature being the very much warmer weather likely to develop with time. In the short term blustery winds from the West will bring some rain and showers early next week before High pressure brings calmer and bright weather. Then as the ridge moves East and declines Southerly winds ahead of a trough brings showery weather across from the West with this theme continuing across the South until the end of the period. With warmer winds from Europe it could well become warm, humid and thundery down across the South by the second weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a brief drier and warmer period towards the middle of next week under a ridge of High pressure crossing East. On this run it doesn't hang around long with Atlantic Low pressure returning some wind and rain at times in a Westerly cyclonic flow by next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows a complex evolution of pressure patterns over the UK in the next 10 days. Things are straightforwards enough in the short term as a deep depression moving ENE well north of Scotland pushes troughs with with wind and rain east and SE across all areas on Sunday and Monday. Then a strong ridge close to the South midweek encourages fine and warmer weather in the South. However, pressure falls a little later with the UK becoming in nomansland with no one pressure area having overall control meaning some showers are inevitable with temperatures close to average or perhaps a little above in any sunny spells towards the 10 day point. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure over or close to the SW with much warmer uppers than of late over the UK in SE winds ensuring warmer weather is likely but with the proximity of Low pressure showery weather at best looking likely. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a change to very much warmer weather with time but still very mixed in regard to specific detail. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.1 pts and GFS at 83.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.8 pts to 56.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 47.9 pts to 40.5 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The main message from the models this morning maintains the theme of rather warmer weather developing across the Uk from a day or two's time as we finally lose the Northerly sourced airflow and Low pressure across the UK. Instead Low pressure to the NW will become influential late in the weekend with strong and milder WSW winds driving wind and rain bearing fronts East and SE across the UK late on Sunday and Monday. Then a bright and brisk NW flow with sunshine and showers look likely to be replaced by a ridge of High pressure and drier weather for many and it may begin to feel quite warm in any sunshine across the South from midweek. In the period that follows things become very confusing between the models with no clear set pattern shown. The one constant though is warmer conditions and although some Low pressure looks like filtering in from the West by next weekend the rain from these looks quite showery in nature with still a lot of dry weather in between. There is still some support for High pressure to migrate North late in the period with Low pressure to the South setting up a warm, humid and potentially thundery period but this is by no means the universal rule with options of Atlantic westerlies with rain at times just one of alternative options. Which is right is the 64,000,000 dollar question and more runs are needed over the next few days as the pattern that far ahead hopefully becomes more clear. So we can look forward to some warmer and drier weather more akin to May in the weeks ahead although always prepare for a shower at anytime anywhere making it look like a very typical English May Outlook. I'm not around now for a few days but will return for my next report on Tuesday morning. My morning weather forecasts will remain updated as usual but whatever you are doing over the weekend enjoy the somewhat better conditions and hopefully on my next report it all looks warm and summery from the models. Next Update Tuesday May 3rd 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY APR 28TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A small depression will move slowly East across Scotland tomorrow with a strengthening Westerly flow to it's South bringing troughs of Low pressure SE across the UK tonight. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK sees very low uppers across the UK still though with the levels rising later in the weekend. In the meantime levels of between 2000-3000ft as the freezing level means that snowfall under the unsettled conditions could reach quite low levels at times with settling snow on quite modest hills at times. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming warmer and eventually drier especially in the South at first and the North later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream which has been moving South down across the UK over recent days continues to trend towards blowing more west to East across the UK next week though it takes some time to remove the trough in the flow near the UK. then late in the period it appears to desire to move well South of the UK blocked by higher pressure to the NE. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of chilly weather again as High pressure blocking to the North of the UK continues to be persistent in the longer term. However, in the short term the model shows the current cold and unsettled pattern will decay in the wake of milder West or SW winds next week when the North and West sees the most of the rain while the South and East sees drier and brighter weather before we see a return of High pressure to the North and lower pressure coming up from the South or SW with thundery rain in places but with a much warmer version of continental winds this time around. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational in trend as warmer uppers eventually become established across the UK. This doesn't mean wall to wall dry and sunny weather as injections of Low pressure from the West and SW at times from later next week continue to bring the risk of more unsettled conditions with rain or showers but at least the rain will be warmer. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clusters today show a bias towards Low pressure lying to the South and West of the UK with warmer continental winds blowing across the UK with rain at times. there are other options available too ranging from Low pressure over the NW of the UK and High pressure established well to the SW. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a blustery West to NW flow from Sunday with a band of rain crossing SE followed by brighter and more showery conditions over the Bank Holiday Monday with a ridge following settling things down for a time towards the middle of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today follows the raw data above well as the current cold Low pressure is replaced by something a little more average for late April synoptically with Low pressure to the North with troughs moving Se across the UK with the familiar band of rain followed by showers in somewhat less cold air than of late. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning looks quite encouraging if it's High pressure your after as this weekends Low pressure area up to the NW carries bands of rain and showers SE which become followed by a build of pressure from the South and SW towards the middle of next week, gradually extending it's influence up and across all areas as it becomes the main feature of the weather over and around the UK late in the period with warm continental winds and perhaps showers in the South blowing up across the UK from the SE or East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows High pressure building from the South towards the middle of next week but the problem here is that the High may become drawn back west or NW of the UK by next weekend which would spell cooler conditions following a warmer interlude next week but at least it looks generally quite dry for many after the early days of the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today also follows the theme of a windy and showery start to next week but once the parent Low responsible moves away NE pressure rises from the South midweek with drier and warmer conditions in the South. This theme takes rather longer to reach the North with a reversion to showery Low pressure to move over from the West and South later but with much warmer uppers from Europe making things potentially thundery late in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure over or close to the SW with much warmer uppers than of late over the UK in SE winds ensuring warmer weather is likely but with the proximity of Low pressure showery weather at best looking likely. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a change to very much warmer weather with time but still remaining rather changeable. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.0 pts and GFS at 83.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.4 pts to 56.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 47.3 pts to 37.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Finally it looks like by this time in two weeks time Spring may have properly sprung as the synoptic patterns surrounding the British isles at that time point all appear to show much warmer uppers across the UK than currently. Mind you we are not properly out of the woods yet with the next few days continuing the cold and in places unseasonable weather with rain, hill snow and frost still prevalent. However, by Sunday winds will of backed to a milder westerly with a band of rain moving SE across the UK late Sunday/ early Monday and this will be followed by a chilly and showery WNW flow under rising pressure. By midweek many Southern areas look like becoming dry with warmer day temperatures and nigh temperatures recovering too reducing the risk of frost. But it's then from late next week the most encouraging synoptics develop with regard to temperature as many model runs support the High pressure in the South migrating both east and north to affect all of the UK with warmer winds from the South or Se most likely and it may become rather warm at times. It may not be settled though as all the time it looks like pressure will be falling again to the South and SW with outbreaks of showery and potentially showery rain looking likely later. So that's the general theme as I see it this morning meaning that after what has seemed perpetual Autumn as somebody mentioned recently it looks at last we may be moving towards something more May like which given the very chilly April days gone will feel very pleasant indeed in the ever lengthening days and warm sunshine that will inevitably occur between the showers. Let's hope the models do not backtrack in the coming days.. Next Update Friday April 29th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY APR 27TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold North-Westerly flow continues to blow down across the UK backing towards the West tomorrow as a new Low pressure area approaches Western Ireland later tomorrow with troughs poised to cross East over the UK tomorrow night. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK sees very low uppers across the UK still with little sign of any significant change in the coming days. The freezing level will remain around 1700-3000ft through the next few days with snowfall expected across modest hills UK wide on occasion over the coming days. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming less cold and changeable with rain at times chiefly in the North and West with longer drier periods towards the South and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream which has been moving South down across the UK over recent days will slowly back West to East across the UK in a couple of days time. The flow then remains in this position for a time before gradually setting up a trough to the West of the UK later. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cold and showery Northerly flow backing towards the West today and tomorrow gradually being replaced by a new depression moving across the North on Friday. This means a couple more showery days before wet and windy conditions with snow in the North move through late tomorrow and lingering in the South Friday. Another cold and showery weekend seems likely for many before Westerly winds next week bring further wet and windy spells although becoming less cold for many. With low pressure to the North the South and East could see longer drier periods with the North and West seeing the most wind and rain. Through the second week all areas are shown to become unsettled again with showers with hints of a more summery area of High pressure from Europe to end the run with fine and warm conditions developing for most areas should it verify. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational today with the cold and showery theme gradually giving ground from the weekend with Westerly winds and rain at times in less cold weather next week before all areas become showery for a time under slack UK placed Low pressure with the same better weather shown in the Operational Run duplicated on this run too albeit with thundery Low pressure lying to the South of the UK later in a strong and blustery Easterly wind with strong High pressure to the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA Another mixed bag from the Clusters this morning with a lot of different scenarios on the table for 14 days time. No one pressure theme is shown with changeable being the main term I would use to describe any one of the weather types shown. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the end of the cold weather on Saturday as the Low approaching the UK tomorrow drifts away to the East on Saturday. This is then followed by a ridge of High pressure on Sunday with cloud and rain spreading in from the West on Monday under a strong westerly breeze especially over the North. This is then chased away by bright and breezy less cold Westerly winds by midweek next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate well a move away from the cold Northerly sourced air across the UK at the weekend as the showery Low pressure and troughs responsible move away to the East on Saturday. A ridge of High pressure means the South sees a drier spell on Sunday as troughs on this run are shown to mostly affect the North with rain and strong winds moving East while the South becoming breezy and less cold sees less in the way of rainfall. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning also shows the end of the cold period from the weekend as Low pressure further to the North of the UK brings Westerly winds and rain at times across the UK from Sunday evening. Through next week strong westerly winds bring further showers or rain at times and it will still feel chilly in the blustery wind. Then late next week the winds veer Northerly again as Low pressure drifts to the East and with pressure building to the West again a cold Northerly flow with showers return with the risk of ground frosts at night. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today also less cold conditions on the way as Low pressure features much further to the North of the UK than recently with westerly winds developing from the weekend and while not warm these winds will bring a more seasonal mix of sunshine and occasional rain chiefly across the North and West with drier and warmer weather for all looking likely to develop late next week as High pressure builds up from the South and SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today also shows changeable but less cold conditions developing as it's main theme this morning. The current cold and unsettled weather eases at the weekend as winds back towards the West. however, strong Westerly winds will bring rain at times to many areas followed by a blustery WNW flow with showers early next week. then a ridge of High pressure further increases temperatures to average at least with some pleasant weather especially in the South. It may not last long though as this run indicates Low pressure returning late next week and weekend with rain or showers developing for many. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure to the North or NE maintaining changeable conditions with some rain or showers likely for many areas at times but it should remain feeling less cold than currently. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a change to a more Westerly based weather pattern from late in the weekend lasting through next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.0 pts and GFS at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.9 pts to 55.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 46.4 pts to 38.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The theme of less cold weather shown across the models continues today although I use the term 'less cold' with caution as I wouldn't want readers to think a warm spell is on the way soon as that still looks unlikely. However, having said that the end of the cold Northerly flow is nigh as a Low pressure area crossing East over the UK tomorrow night is the last within the cold sourced airflow so we have several more days of relatively cold and unsettled conditions to go. It's Sunday when winds back towards the West or SW and milder air is pushed across the UK although with Low pressure then to the NW of the UK driving fronts East with rain at times especially towards the North and West and then following that is a blustery and cool feeling bright and breezy mix of sunshine and rain showers towards midweek. Thereafter there is still a lot of indecision shown within the output and GEM notably dips us back into a cold Northerly. ECM too brings unsettled weather back towards the end of next week after a brief warmer ridge midweek with GFS bringing High pressure across and eventually settling to the North with a warmer continental feed towards the end of the second week. So as you can see wild fluctuations between the models longer term remain but leaving GEM aside we should see the very last of the cold weather of this season depart at the weekend with something more average from next week with rain at times for many but unfortunately any longer term warm and settled conditions on a UK wide basis still looks a long way off this morning. Next Update Thursday April 28th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY APR 26TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold Northerly flow will back towards the NW tonight and tomorrow with a very showery airflow across the UK being maintained and with troughs developing in the flow later tomorrow moving NW to SE across Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK sees very low uppers across the UK still with little sign of any significant change in the coming days. The freezing level will remain around 1700-3000ft through the next few days with snowfall expected across modest hills UK wide on occasion over the coming days. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather cold and showery this week but possibly becoming less cold next week. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is streaming South down across the UK today but will back more towards a West to East motion still across the UK later in the week. The flow remains quite well South over the remainder of the run but after a period of blowing quite well defined East or SE across Southern Britain becomes much less well defined later next week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cold and showery Northerly flow blowing down across the UK between High pressure to the West and Low to the East. As the rest of the week progresses the winds will back towards the NW or West with further rather cold weather though perhaps not quite as cold as currently. through this period very showery conditions look likely with wintriness anywhere at first but more prone to Northern hills by the weekend. Then through next week and beyond very slow improvements take place as High pressure slowly builds across the UK with sunny and warmer days eventually but with a risk of night ground frosts remaining until very late in the period on this run. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational today with the cold and showery theme gradually giving ground from the weekend though the weather looks like remaining unsettled and breezy well into next week before the main improvement arrives from the SW and West. By the end of the run pressure looks higher well to the Northwest and with Low pressure to the South there may be a return of some showery rain towards the South and SW at the end of the period though by then it would probably be much warmer. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA It's been a very long time since the Clusters have given a clear and concise clue as to what weather pattern will lie across the UK in 14 days from the present and today is no exception with the bias supporting Low pressure to the South or West of the UK holding the biggest share of members though it has to be said there are several other themes in contrast to the above shown too. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning still looks rather cold and showery through this weekend with modest and slow improvements towards a move away from the coldest conditions but still quite showery weather looking likely over the bank Holiday weekend in a blustery West or NW wind. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today maintain a complex look this morning with an increased threat of troughs swinging in from the NW or West later this week and into the weekend which although rising temperatures marginally from current levels continue rather cool and unsettled conditions for quite a while yet. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning looks generally unsettled throughout the period this morning. In addition to the continuing threat of showers the winds backing Westerly will eliminate the very coolest conditions but with gales possible in places next week especially under deep Low pressure over the North the weather will be hardly likely to feel particularly Springlike on any day through this run with rain or showers at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today looks like maintaining rather cold conditions under a NW flow for much of the next week. With Low pressure in close proximity of the UK the weather will be showery for much of the time but with some drier periods too and with some longer spells of rain mixed in too especially over the North where snow could continue to fall over some of the higher hills despite being May by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM is the once more the most optimistic model this morning in that while it also shows a cold and showery week to come conditions slowly improve at the Bank Holiday Weekend as the cool and showery theme becomes replaced by less cold and benign conditions in the South although any major improvements look tentative at best as pressure remains Low to the East and also to the North of the UK with the best conditions likely over the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows a High pressure ridge to the South of the UK with a Westerly flow across the UK. With the Jet Stream further North than recently near Scotland the South could become largely dry, less cool and bright whereas the North and NE continue to see cooler conditions with some rain or showers at times due to Low pressure belts to the North and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show a steady improvement away from the very coolest conditions as winds back westerly. there is much disagreement though about how dry such a Westerly flow will become. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.1 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 62.9 pts to 54.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 45.5 pts to 37.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There is still a quite muted approach to improvements within the models this morning but we may have to be very patient to see it. Through the rest of the working week there looks like a lot of bright and showery weather for all areas complicated by frontal systems swinging in from the NW on Wednesday night and Thursday with some more extensive rain and maybe even snowfall across the hills.. Then it's back to cool NW winds and sunshine and showers across the weekend and though it maybe a little less cold in the South conditions for the Bank Holiday weekend look unlikely to be warm anywhere with some fleeting sunny spells between the showers. Then as we look forward to the first week of May conditions look like improving very slowly with the South looking best for conditions as we move deeper into May as the Jet Stream moves further North and pressure rises somewhat to the South keeping winds in a rather warmer westerly source. However, there is some dispute between the output on this solution with some resistance to any marked build of pressure with a more mobile Atlantic regime setting up with rain at times for all in a more unstable Westerly flow. I'm afraid we need more runs before the deeper outlook period comes better into focus with the general theme of cool and showery weather continuing to be the main theme with the tentative rise in pressure and temperatures the most likely theme still over the next week at least. Next Update Wednesday April 27th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY APR 25TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An increasingly cold Northerly airflow is moving down across the UK behind a cold front moving South down across Northern and Eastern regions through today with the cold Northerly lasting for much of this week thereafter before backing Westerly later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK sees very low uppers across the UK throughout this week with the range of the freezing level lying between 1500ft in the North and less than 3000ft in the South. This allows a risk of snowfall in showers at any elevation over 1000ft UK wide through the week. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather cold and showery this week but possibly becoming less cold next week. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is streaming South down across the UK today and for much of this week before it backs to more of a West to East flow close to Southern Britain next weekend. In the second week the flow still looks like remaining close to Southern Britain still largely blowing West to East while all the time maintaining an unsettled and cyclonic weather pattern across the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cold and showery Northerly flow blowing down across the UK between High pressure to the West and Low to the East. By the end of the week the Low pressure to the East eases West towards the North of the UK backing the winds more Westerly and removing the very coldest uppers with it but maintaining a very unsettled pattern. Through the second week things have only warmed up marginally on this run with continuing cool and unsettled weather next week with rain at times although any wintriness should become confined to the far North. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational during the first half of the period with a cold Northerly flow the main feature promoting wintry showers this week with a slow transition towards somewhat less cold weather and at the very end of the period drier conditions too especially across the North and East as on this run as pressure builds over and then to the North and East of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA Still very mixed messages from the Clusters yet again with a mix of Low pressure lying close to the West and SW of the UK just about holding sway as the most likely theme at 14 days although there are plenty of alternative outcomes involving closer proximity to higher pressure scenarios albeit no real signal on location of this or longevity of any one pattern. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning is showing a cold and showery week as Low pressure dominates just to the East of the UK with a Northerly feed down across the UK. By the weekend the pressure gradients slacken across the UK as well as backing more Westerly giving fair and less chilly conditions at the weekend with rain and showers more likely towards the North and West by then than elsewhere. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a very complex week of synoptic pressure patterns across the UK as unseasonably cold air floods South across the UK frequently complicated by frequent injections of troughs from the North and later West ensuring unsettled conditions remain for all of the UK up until and probably including the start of the Bank Holiday weekend.. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a sustained fairly unsettled period this morning and with cold Northerlies blowing down across the UK this week it will stay cold with rain or wintry showers at times. With time the coldest conditions weaken as winds back Westerly at the weekend but it never looks like becoming anything like warm with next week too looking relatively cool and unsettled under Low pressure over or close by to the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM N/A at time of issue. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM is the most optimistic model this morning in that while it also shows a cold and showery week to come conditions slowly improve at the Bank Holiday Weekend as the cool and showery theme becomes replaced by less cold and benign conditions especially in the South with improvements continuing next week to include much of the UK as High pressure over Biscay and France builds North across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night is continuing the theme of the UK gradually lifting out of the cold spell as slacker pressure gradients with a weak Westerly component looks likely in 10 days time with the best weather then developing over the South with temperatures having recovered somewhat for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still plenty of evidence that the very coldest conditions shown this week will weaken over the Bank Holiday weekend with a more changeable but less cold mix of options shown between the models thereafter. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.9 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 62.3 pts to 54.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.6 pts to 38.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models remain constant in showing this week as being nothing less than a cold and in a few places wintry one with rain and showers falling as sleet and snow at times on higher ground and not always just in the North. The winds will be screaming down from the North over the coming days accentuating the cold and while frost at night may not be the biggest problem due to the strength of the wind it is a very real risk where sheltered from the wind. By the weekend changes do look like beginning as the Low pressure to the East transfers towards the North of the UK and as pressure rises to the South winds back to a less cold Westerly. The weather at the weekend is still very undecided with some output suggesting rain and showers continuing although the Euro's look much more sedate as High pressure ridges into the UK from the South restricting the showers to the far North and more importantly it could be that temperatures then approach normal values especially in the South. To my untrained eye there seems little prospect of any sustained warmer period anytime soon as the models which stretch out to longer term periods suggest that Northern High pressure blocking remains a strong possibility as we move into the first half of May and if that verifies it will remain rather on the cool side with rain or showers at times as Low pressure areas take a track that is further South than ideal for the UK. However, this is not a forecast but a generalisation of what the models appear to be showing two weeks from now and it maybe that the better orientated rise of pressure given from both UKMO and ECM from next weekend moves further forward in breaking the rather cool pattern to something much better and May like. Time will tell of course but I would like to see more cohesion between all the output on the conditions for next week and beyond before I feel more confident in any one solution. More from me tomorrow. Next Update Tuesday April 26th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY APR 22ND 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure is receding away to the West of the UK over the next day or so with an occluded front close to Southern Britain moving away South too tomorrow leaving the UK in a protracted cool Northerly airflow across the UK for some considerable time thereafter. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK Colder uppers are spreading down from the North across the UK over the next few days with the freezing level falling to as low as 2000-3000ft across all parts of the UK by the end of the weekend. Any showers will fall as snow above 1000ft at times especially across the North and East. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder at the weekend with cool nights and sunshine and showers looking likely with a continuing night frost risk thereafter. Perhaps becoming less cold as we enter May. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is in the process of change as the flow becomes directed South across the UK over the next few days. It then remains in situ for the next week under the influence of Low pressure to the East of the UK. Then through the second week the theme is for the flow to back to a West to East flow and later a cyclonic flow as Low pressure transfers to the west of the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a sustained cold and showery Northerly flow developing through the coming days and lasting for much if not all of next week. Then the pattern slowly changes passing through a transitional change of shallow and still showery Low pressure close to the UK before ending up with a deep Low developing just to the NW of the UK with wet and windy but less chilly conditions finally arriving towards the end of the second week GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational in relation to the colder phase of the run with next week and next weekend maintaining a cool and showery feel. However, the run couldn't be different in it's latter stages as on this run High pressure replaces Low pressure crossing the UK and ending to the North with a warmer and continental feed of winds across the UK with a lot of dry and fine condition to end the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA Still very mixed messages from the Clusters today which show a bias of 60/40 in favour of High pressure ruling the roost over the UK in 2 weeks time. There is still a sizeable group though who still prefer a much more cyclonic pattern with rain at times across the UK at the same time point. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning still shows a cold and showery pattern developing across the UK in the coming days as Low pressure to the east and later NE dominates. Winds will be blowing from between North and NW strongest in the NE where the most frequent showers wintry on hills are expected with the risk of frost at night under any clear skies. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a Northerly flow becoming established across the UK and far from straightforward as troughs are shown to be pulled South in the flow with cloudier skies and some rain being replaced by the coldest phase of the spell early next week under a more direct cold and showery Northerly by then. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a sustained and cold run this morning with Low pressure to the Northeast or East and then over us for a time later maintaining cool and showery weather under Northerly sourced air throughout the 10 day period with a continued risk of frost at night for many and some snow over the hills at times for some. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM N/A at time of issue. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM also shows the cold Northerly intensifying early next week with showers and very cold winds blowing down from the North before the pattern eases later as pressure rises to the South leading to lighter Westerly winds warming things up later and killing off the showers from all but the far North and hopefully limiting the risk of frost much more by the end of the period as rain moves across the North and West under more traditional SW winds. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night is continuing the theme of the UK gradually lifting out of the cold spell as Low pressure gradually establishes closer to the NW of the UK with winds gradually settling West or SW with rain at times and higher temperatures together with some rain at times especially across the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Changes in the models remains slow but there is a continuing if by some models a tantalising shift away from the coldest conditions lasting too long this morning as the theme of milder Westerly winds arriving towards the latter part of the period continues to be shown. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.4 pts to UKMO at 86.2 pts and GFS at 83.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.9 pts to 56.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.2 pts to 35.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Today's output shows more of the same in terms of the UK moving into a cold spell of Northerly winds and how we eventually find our way out of the rut late next week or beyond. What we have today is an occluded front across the far South and SW of the Uk today making for it's own injection of cool and rather gloomy weather with some rain while the rest of the UK have another bright and dry day. The rain in the South is then chased away by tomorrow as cold Northerly winds begin to embrace the UK between Low pressure to the East and High to the West. The gradient between these systems then steepens next week with a stronger and unusually chilly spell for late April with a mix of sunshine and showers, falling as snow on hills and where showers don't occur frosts at night are likely widely. It's not until late next week when the cracks begin to appear in this set-up as winds look like backing towards the West or even SW with milder conditions albeit with rain at times developing. However, models like GEM this morning enhance the length of the cold spell throughout the 10 days and it is just one of many options on the table beyond next week. What can be said with some certainty there is no heatwave on the cards any-time soon although with bright sunshine between the showers and the additional hours of daylight we have now it' certainly not all doom and gloom and it maybe that it's just patience that is required before the current synoptic pattern realigns to offer us something rather warmer. Time of course will tell. No report tomorrow or Sunday. Will hopefully be back next Monday with some better news for warm seekers. Next Update Monday April 25th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY APR 21ST 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure across the North of the UK will slide away to the West over the coming few days. In the South troughs of Low pressure will edge up from the South tomorrow with a stiff NE breeze and then a Northerly flow will then develop across all of the UK over the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is as high as 10000ft across the far South today but over the coming days colder uppers will move steadily South with the freezing level dropping to as low as between 1700ft-3000ft even across the South over the weekend with snow showers on hills above around 500ft at times giving accumulations above 2000ft. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder at the weekend with cool nights and sunshine and showers looking likely with a continuing night frost risk thereafter. Perhaps becoming less cold as we enter May. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is in the process of change as the split flow is replaced by a South moving flow from the Northern arm moving down over the UK through the weekend and for much of next week. Then in the second week the flow backs Westerly with it's core to the NW of the Uk through the second week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a North or NNW flow developing across the UK over the coming week or so delivering cold temperatures and showers with sleet or snow in the mix along with hail and thunder as well as bright sunshine between times and frosts at night for many. Most of the showers will be in the North and East and the trend will be for less cold weather to develop from later next week as winds back Westerly and High pressure builds near the South towards the May day Bank Holiday with warmer and sunnier weather as a result while the North sees cloudier conditions with some rain. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is less supportive of milder air returning after a week or so of cold Northerlies. Instead it keeps rather cool and very showery weather going for many well into the second week and probably right out until the end of the period as shallow and cool Low pressure is shown to remain close to the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA It's been some considerable while since the GFS Clusters were instrumental in giving a good indication of what weather to expect across the UK in a couple of weeks and this morning's crop is no exception with High pressure positioned in a variety of positions around the UK along with some Low pressure too offering some rather cool and changeable conditions within the mix. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning still shows a cold pattern developing as we move through the weekend. The weather will be typified by a mix of sunshine and April showers but those showers will be cold and potentially wintry with frosts at night a common feature for many as skies clear overnight especially in the South and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a cold Northerly flow developing across the weekend with sunshine and showers the order of the weather but with some disturbances shown to move South in the flow at times enhancing the showers, wintry on hills almost anywhere by early next weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a cold Northerly flow too this weekend and next weekend with sunshine and potentially wintry showers by day and frost by night. With time though and later in the period the winds fall lighter and back westerly and with gently rising pressure the showers should die away later next week with the South seeing nearer to normal temperatures by day but still with the risk of frost by night in the by then quiet conditions for many. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM N/A at time of issue. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today continues to show the same drift into a cold Northerly flow at it'sd peak early next week when winds will be stronger and a day or so of really raw conditions seem possible with widespread showers, strong winds and sleet or snow in those showers on the hills almost anywhere. This then marks the change to less cold conditions later in the week as High pressure builds from the SW killing many of the showers and steadily backing winds off towards the West with much less cold conditions especially by day with sunny spells in the South and any remaining showers restricted towards the NW late in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows the cold northerly flow all but dead by then with winds having backed off towards the West. There are still quite a few members who keep Low pressure in control though with showers especially in the North with the overall bias towards the driest conditions developing towards the South later in those less cold temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Changes in the model remains slow but there is a continuing shift away from the coldest conditions lasting too long this morning as the theme of milder Westerly winds arriving towards the latter part of the period continues to be shown. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.4 pts and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 62.6 pts to 55.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.1 pts to 36.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models continue to point towards a colder than average period of weather to come across the UK as winds over the next few days settle Northerly with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers developing across all areas by day with frosts under clear skies at night. the worst of the chill looks like being early next week when a squeeze in isobars make for a windy and raw period especially over the east where more prolonged showers look possible for a time with snow over modest hills. In the South and west a lot of dry and bright weather will occur between more scattered showers in sparkling visibility. Then as we look further ahead the pattern still looks a bit mixed but the general trend of yesterday remains in that there should be a shift away from cold Northerlies to lighter and more importantly warmer Westerlies with the South possibly becoming largely dry and bright while the North sees more cloud and occasional rain. So all in all Winter refuses to lose it's grip next week but it should be it's last hurrah before something more seasonably traditional and Springlike arrives in Week 2 of this morning's output. In the meantime I would strongly advise gardeners and growers to protect or withhold placing tender plants in outside locations for a couple more weeks while the passage of this cold spell takes place. For the rest of us the cold spell will be no more than an inconvenience with some very pleasant looking conditions between the cold showers. Let's hope the improvements shown longer term this morning are enhanced and extended in the upcoming days outputs. Next Update Friday April 22nd 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY APR 20TH 2016. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure across the UK today will persist for a day or so before moving West out into the Atlantic towards the weekend. At the same time Low pressure over Spain will move slowly North pushing some troughs towards Southern England later tonight and tomorrow with a strengthening Easterly flow across the South of the UK today and tonight decreasing again on Thursday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is much higher than of late with values at around 5000ft in the North and to as high as 8000ft in the South for a time over the next few days. It is set to plunge to as low as 1500ft - 2000ft by the weekend. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder at the weekend with cool nights and sunshine and showers looking likely with a continuing night frost risk thereafter. Perhaps becoming less cold as we enter May. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream remains split North and South of the UK as High pressure across the UK separates the flow. As the High is pushed West out into the Atlantic the Northern arm of the flow moves South across the UK late this weekend and next week becoming a cyclonic pattern then with the Northern aspect slowly being lost with a more variable flow pattern expected late in the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current quiet conditions under High pressure gradually becoming replaced by a chilly Northerly flow by the weekend with some showers. This Northerly will be cold and will last a while before the flow slowly backs Westerly and become less cold later while the weather overall remains rather changeable with some rain or showers at times. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run follows the Operational to a point before it shows a build of High pressure across the UK in Week 2 with fine and sunny days under chilly nights with some frosts before a warmer Easterly flow develops towards the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today are once more very mixed but are less supportive of a cold Northerly now and show a very mixed set of members supporting anything between a slack and benign pressure pattern to Low pressure over Scotland with rain for all. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning still shows a cold pattern developing as we move through the weekend. The weather itself takes rather longer to take a turn into more unsettled mode though with the weekend apart from a few showers in the North and East largely dry with night frosts. It's not until next week when all areas look at risk of more widespread cold weather with wintry showers in a strong Northerly draught as Low pressure focuses just to the East of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today agree with the theme of the Operational Run with High pressure pulled out into the Atlantic come the weekend and a Northerly flow developing. Rain bearing troughs clear the South but we will have to watch for weak disturbances running South close to Western Britain later in the weekend in the Northerly flow delivering more cloud and some rain or even sleet on the hills. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a cold Northerly flow developing from the weekend and lasting through to the end of the run. With pressure Low to the East and High to the West the Northerly flow will promote daytime showers and in the cold air they could fall as anything including sleet or snow at times across the hills with frosts at night under clearing skies. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows Northerly winds becoming the dominant factor in the UK weather from the weekend as the current quiet weather is sucked away out into the Atlantic. In the far South the precursor to this weather will be cloud and rain for a time on Friday before all areas stay chilly with sunshine and cold showers for the rest of the weekend and much of next week with frost at night likely. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today continues to show the same drift into a cold Northerly flow as the rest of the output. However, it is looking increasingly likely that the South and West may not see too much chance of wintry showers with the focus of these towards the North and East. However, frost at night will be widespread everywhere before winds eventually back towards a Westerly point bringing less cold but changeable conditions to all areas after the turn of the month. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure over Scandinavia and High pressure somewhat further South over the Atlantic perhaps allowing more of a backing of wind towards the West and bringing temperatures up a bit from previous days though still with some showers across the North and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Changes in the model remains small but there is a slow shift away from the coldest conditions lasting too long this morning as the theme of milder Westerly winds in 10 days increases. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.8 pts to UKMO at 86.5 pts and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.6 pts to 56.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.8 pts to 37.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There is evidence in the models this morning that the very worst of the cold weather next week may not last too long or be tempered considerably if you live towards the SW of the UK as after a few days the signs of the Northerly losing some of it's impetus is hinted at. The general pattern though remains one of cold Northerly winds enveloping the UK from the weekend. In the North and East in particular this could be come a very showery flow with sleet or snow across the hills. Further West and showers look far less frequent and there will be a lot of dry weather around. We may have to watch for weak disturbances rounding the Atlantic High and slipping South close to the west of the UK bringing some rain or sleet but away from this West looks best from midweek next week. Then as the High slips further South over the Atlantic by some models the winds begin to back more towards NW and eventually West which could cut off the cold source from the UK and bring less cold but still changeable conditions later, a fact well documented by this morning's ECM Operational Run and GFS too. So looking at all of the output in a nutshell it looks like the North and East in particular are going to feel the full blast of a late Spring Northerly blast with cold winds and April Wintry showers aplenty next week. In the West and South while colder the cold will be somewhat tempered by a lot of dry and bright weather with fewer wintry showers but all areas will likely see some unwelcome late April frosts. Then as we look to the longer term output it does appear that the trend will be towards less cold weather as we enter May under Westerly winds and occasional rainfall especially in the North in an eventually much more standard pressure pattern over and around the UK. Next Update Thursday April 21st 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY APR 19TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An anticyclone over Southern England will extend North over the next 24 hours dissolving the very weak trough straddling it across Southern Britain at the moment with an Easterly flow developing across the South tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will continue to rise across the UK in the coming days settling at between 5000-8000ft from tomorrow so no snowfall is expected anywhere over the next few days. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder at the weekend with cool nights and sunshine and showers looking likely with a continuing night frost risk thereafter. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Southern arm of the Jet stream currently South of Spain will persist for some time while the Northern arm near Northern Scotland ridges across the Atlantic later this week and turns South down across the UK from the weekend where it remains for much of next week eventually merging with the flow well South of the UK later next week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows quiet conditions for the remainder of this week although some rain on an increasing Easterly flow may reach the South towards the end of the working week. High pressure responsible for this will then move from Northern Britain out into the Atlantic and away to the NW with all eyes then to the North a s a cold and showery Northerly extends to all areas by the end of the weekend with a spell of sunshine and cold showers looking likely next week with all areas at risk with some longer spells of rain possible too especially in the East. Still cold enough for snow on northern hills and frosts at night where skies clear. There is some evidence of a recovery in temperatures towards the end of the second week as winds trend more towards the West GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is pretty much the same as the cold Northerly flow next week follows this weeks quiet conditions and is subsequently succeeded by warmer winds developing across the UK towards the end of the second week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today are very mixed again today with everything from cold Northerlies, High pressure over the UK and Low pressure over the UK all possibilities. So the Clusters today do not seem a very worthwhile evaluation in acquiring an idea of where we might be weather-wise in two weeks. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the slow progression of Low pressure to the East of the UK becoming the dominant feature of the weather across the UK by the end of the weekend and beginning to next week. In the meantime the current quiet and benign conditions could be interrupted by some cloud and rain in the South on Friday opening the door then to the North winds and increasing amounts of showers by the start of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today agree with the theme of the Operational Run with High pressure through the week pushed out to the West by the weekend with troughs moving up from the South at the end of the working week transferred to a cold Northerly flow over the weekend with bright skies, cold winds and scattered showers, wintry on hills in the North and East. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning also shows a largely dry and bright remainder of the week though with some rain easing into the South for a time on Friday before it becomes swept away by an increasingly cold and unstable flow from the North with showers. Then next week the run shows Low pressure close by to the UK with cool and showery weather with some longer spells of rain too and temperatures rather much on the low side of average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows good support for a High pressure based 3-4 days to come before a cold Northerly develops across the UK from the weekend as High pressure is forced away West and Low pressure to the East sets up a cold and showery northerly flow across the UK next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today still shows to me the least extent of cold weather next week. Although the first half of the week does show a cold and showery northerly for most it eventually cuts off the cold supply to the South entirely as the Low pressure responsible moves sufficiently West to keep winds more NW or even West later with the coldest air held away to the NW. The weather would be unsettled though with some showers for all but in the South at least this run shows the possibility of some warm sunshine between the showers in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure over Scandinavia and High pressure over the Atlantic with a chilly North or NW flow across the UK with sunshine and showers the general theme of the chart. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Changes are just small and subtle in the different ways in which a chilly Northerly flow is shown and as a result will likely be blowing down across the UK in the 10-14 day period. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 86.6 pts and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.6 pts to 57.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.8 pts to 38.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The theme from the models this morning is still a strong one in favour of a cold Northerly airflow to become established across the UK next week. There are some glimmers of hope though within the mix and ECM is beginning to show a way we might see just a short spell of cold Northerly winds before in the South at least things become much more modified as the coldest air is held away to the NW. This would inevitably mean that temperatures would approach normal with time and whilst not warm the sunny spells between the continuing showers would feel very welcome in temperatures closer to average. However, the rest of the output is less productive with a desire to maintain a very chilly Northerly feed across the UK for a week to 10 days at least while High pressure remains High to the west and NW. These type of spells are not that uncommon at this time of year but some of the uppers shown are certainly rather chilly for April to say the least so snow would certainly be possible over the hills though unlikely to be problematic. Frosts at night could be though as clear skies could result in some local sharp and damaging frosts for gardeners and growers so something to be aware of within the day to day forecasts next week. So while no particularly wet and windy weather to come plenty to keep us on our toes and it's probably best to enjoy the benign and pleasantly warm conditions of the next few days before temperatures set back a month or so next week. Next Update Wednesday April 20th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY APR 18TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure lies across the far South of England and will build further over the next 24 hours as well as extend further North tomorrow and Wednesday, killing off the weak trough currently moving South across Northern and Central areas http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise steadily through this week towards 6000-8000ft across the South later while the North will not be quite as high though comfortably above 3000ft in the North later http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather this week with cool nights then even chillier weather with sunshine and showers look likely with a continuing night frost risk thereafter. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The split flow in the Jet Stream will remain for a time through this week while later the flow simplifies by diving South across the UK and later still setting up a cyclonic flow around the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of High pressure influenced weather this week as the centre drifts North from Southern England to lie across the UK through the working week. Then by and over the weekend to come it is pulled West and NW over the Atlantic opening the door to cold and showery weather to arrive from the North with some longer spells of rain too as Low pressure centres across the UK early next week filling only slowly in situ over the UK thereafter while maintaining rain and showers across the UK to end the period. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is pretty much the same as the High pressure zone this week is also pulled West and NW out into the Atlantic with cold and showery North winds followed by cyclonic winds all bringing a mix of rain and showers with perhaps some snow on hills especially at first in this phase. Towards the end of the run a brighter and drier period looks possible as Low pressure weakens but further unsettled weather looks poised to flood down from the NW at the final day of the run.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today once again appear to be a weak tool as there are few signals given this morning which give a clear guide as to where we might be meteorologically in two weeks time. Cyclonic conditions on the face of it seem more likely than not but infinite details about where pressure patterns will pan out in relation to the UK are unclear hence airflow patterns and sources make conditions at the surface hard to predict. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure well in control over much of this working week before it recedes to the West over the coming weekend with a chilly Northerly developing which brings the risk of showers, especially in the East but with plenty of dry weather still with some frost at night in the drier West and NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today agree with the theme of the Operational Run with High pressure through the week pushed out to the West by the weekend with a squeeze of troughs from both the South and North making the weather less reliably dry by the weekend as well as dropping temperatures downwards by the weekend as a North or NE wind takes hold. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning also shows a largely dry and bright week to come before the same North winds develop by the weekend and accompanied by Low pressure moving in close to Eastern Britain rain and showers breaking out then too and under low temperatures some snow can be expected on the higher hills of the North. This pattern then largely remains locked into the midweek period next week with further rain or showers at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows good support for a High pressure based week to come with fine days with some sunshine mixed with chilly nights with frost in places. It too by the weekend shows a slip into a colder Northerly wind though somewhat slacker than some other models but still capable of delivering showers as pressure falls across the UK and under any clear intervals overnight the light winds could give rise to night frosts. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today still maintains the theme of a relatively decent week of weather to come as High pressure across the UK slowly drifts West and NW by the weekend with a slow drift into a colder Northerly flow come the weekend with some showers breaking out in places. Then through the weekend and start of next week rather cold conditions with showers or rain at times looks more likely though on this run things might not turn quite as chilly as some of the previous versions of this model run has shown as the coldest temperatures become held further to the NW of the UK with more of an influence of Atlantic westerlies in the South though the overall weather pattern would become very unsettled for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows n changes from the theme shown for days so the likelihood of a chilly North flow down across the UK is still a very likely one as we move towards the period 10 days hence. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Changes are just small and subtle in the different ways in which a chilly Northerly flow is shown and as a result will likely be blowing down across the UK in the 10-14 day period. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.2 pts to UKMO at 86.9 pts and GFS at 83.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.7 pts to 58.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.9 pts to 39.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Still no major changes in the overall patterning between the models this morning. However, not all of the output is quite so strong in supporting really chilly air across the UK and ECM has thrown up a common scenario in this sort of setup where the coldest air stays to the NW of the UK as the Low pressure responsible moves across the UK from the NE and cuts off a direct Northerly feed that had previously been shown due to Low pressure holding out to the East. Nevertheless, this is just crumbs of comfort in an otherwise persistent pattern which nearly has a 100% of chance of verifying this morning. In the interim period High pressure lying across the UK will deliver some quite pleasant conditions this week with sunshine breaking out again by midweek after a couple of cloudy but largely dry days today and tomorrow. Then as winds freshen from the East later in the week there is still a decreasing threat of some rain moving up briefly from the South into the South though this looks a receding risk and it's not until winds back NE or North at the weekend when notable changes take hold. Colder air will plunge South again towards the weekend with an increasing risk of showers, first in the East and probably anywhere later and with air from such a cold source it will still be cold enough for some snow on Northern hills and mountains. The main concern for me is that once established there is little desire within the models to break us out of the pattern and as long as High pressure remains strong near Greenland it maybe that much of next week too remains cool and showery although there will be a fair amount of dry and bright weather too between the cold showers and it's at these times it will probably feel OK. Next Update Tuesday April 19th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY APR 16TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure is building across Southern Britain today. Weak troughs of Low pressure will move East over the far North later today and more slowly SE across other areas tonight and tomorrow weakening further as they run into High pressure over Southern England by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The frezing level across the UK currently is around 2000ft but it will rise to around 3500ft for many by tomorrow and much higher across the South around midweek, perhaps to as high as 10000ft by midweek as warmer air moves up from the South. As a result snowfall will be impossible on lowland Britain later this week. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather this week with cool nights then even chillier weather with sunshine and showers look likely with a continuing night frost risk thereafter. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The split flow in the Jet Stream will remain with the main arm well South over the area of Southern Spain and North Africa with low pressure West of Portugal. The northern arm while weak moves East near Northern Scotland and this buckles at times later this week as the Southern arm also sends a spore North to the UK before the flow simplifies to a single flow blowing North to South over the UK and sets up a cyclonic airstream near the UK at the end of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of High pressure influenced weather across the UK although the positioning of this is poor for the UK. Through the working week High pressure well establishes across the UK with fine weather developing for all but with cool nights and some frost the days will be bright and sunny. Later in the week a SE flow across the far South and SW could give rise to some potentially thundery rain before winds back NE for all and temperatures decline once more next weekend with the second week looking very cool and showery with some wintry showers over hills and frost at night even more likely under winds from such a cold source to the North. The best weather then looks to be towards the NW before all areas look like warming up a little at the very end of the period as winds finally return to a milder Westerly source.. GFS CONTROL RUN Apart from minor details the Control Run offers only small differences and that occurring in the much more unreliable part of the run in the second week. As it is things get much more complex in Week 2 as Low pressure is shown to elongate the UK with cold air to the North and warmer air pushing up into the South. This means rain at times for many but possibly becoming warmer and more Spring feeling in the South with time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today are all over the place again with no clear pattern determined by this morning's set. As they stand there is around equal support for some sort of cold Northerly flow over the UK with low pressure to the East and High to the West whereas there is another equally big group who support the opposite of High pressure to the East and Low pressure over or just to the West of the UK with South or SW winds and undoubtedly less cool conditions as a result. Not a lot can be drawn from this pack this morning. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure well in control over much of this working week although some sort of hiatus could develop across the extreme South midweek as Low pressure to the South brings the risk of some showery rain here for a time. then as we look towards next weekend UKM looks to be setting itself up for the UK to have another very cool weekend of sunshine and showers with frosts at night under a strengthening NE or North flow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure developing across the South of Britain over the coming days and killing off a weak front moving down from the North by Tuesday. Then High pressure builds across all areas for a time before a pincer movement develops caused by troughs from both the North and South moving towards one another by the end of the week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning is a little slower in bringing the cold North or NE flow into the UK, leaving it until after next weekend before the main thrust of rain and cold showers feeds down over us close to Low pressure near the SE to end the run. This leaves much of the coming week dry and bright with High pressure over or eventually just to the West and NW with a ridge close by though this model too runs a risk of showery rain over the extreme South soon after midweek as things warm up for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows good support for a High pressure based week to come with fine days with some sunshine mixed with chilly nights with frost in places. Some exceptions to this theme also look possible with the same risk of showery rain in the far South soon after midweek this coupled with falling pressure later culminates in High pressure being sucked back out into the Atlantic late in the week and next weekend at the expense of a cold Northerly flow establishing with showers and cold winds to end the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today still maintains the theme it has for days now of a High pressure based week to come as it builds across Southern Britain over the next 24 hours or so before extending North to all areas by midweek. A freshening Easterly will then develop across the South and with fronts over the channel some showery rain could develop here soon after midweek. Then as for some considerable while now the model has all eyes looking to the North and NE as showery Low pressure pulls down a cold Northerly airflow as result of High pressure being sucked out over the Atlantic and Greenland to end the period. This could spell quite a protracted period of cool and perhaps very unsettled weather for much of the UK given such extensive High pressure blocking to the North and NW is shown at Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night endorses the Operational Run issued this morning well with a cold Northerly flow with sunshine and showers a strong theme offered to the UK this morning for 10 days time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Still too much emphasis on the trend for cool and showery North or NE winds to be blowing down across the UK in 10-14 days time for my liking. However, that again is the main theme this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.7 pts to UKMO at 87.5 pts and GFS at 84.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.6 pts to 59.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.0 pts to 39.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Another day and no change in the models theme this morning and with a lot of cross model support the theme of weather I'm about to describe for the next few weeks comes with a higher degree of certainty than is often the case. What we currently have is pressure rising across the UK as a strong ridge develops over Southern England in the coming day or so. For a time a weak Westerly flow will permit weak troughs to bring cloud and a little rain across the UK and this may approach the South too tomorrow before the front responsible dies in situ as the High pressure develops and extends North. This then leads to much of the UK having a largely dry and settled three or four days with some chilly night but bright and warm sunshine by day. Low pressure will be flirting with Southern England from midweek and this could lead to some showery rain extending North from France on Thursday under a previously strengthening ESE flow while in the North it stays dry and fine until the weekend. Thereafter things get much more complicated although the message from all the models is an assured one. High pressure will be retrogressing to the West and NW at the weekend and coupled with Low pressure to the SE and later East and NE cold north winds are expected to flood back down across the UK next weekend and then last for some considerable time. Although day to day details between the models are shown I can generalise by saying that this period looks like being rather cold and showery and the air still looks cold enough for some snow in the showers over the hills with hail, graupel and thunder possible almost anywhere between spells of sparkling sunshine and good visiblities. More importantly for gardeners and growers frost by night look inevitable on occasions as showers and clouds decay away each evening. Then if I have to look at the crystal ball for the days between Day 10-14 I think we can say that winds may back Westerly with time allowing somewhat less cold though still changeable conditions to develop as we move into May proper. So there you have it a lot of dry and fine weather over the week to come looks like being superseded by another cold attack from the North or NE next weekend with the lead up to the Bank Holiday Weekend at the turn of the month looking a cool and showery one although as always in showery setups some fair better than others and overall with no persistent rain or gales looking likely away from the cold showers and night frosts things overall may not feel too bad. Next Update Monday April 18th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY APR 16TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold Northerly airstream has become established over the UK overnight and will continue today. Pressure will rise though and a strengthening ridge of High pressure will extend over Southern Britain tomorrow and extend it's influence further North too early next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures are very low for April over the whole of the UK this morning at almost 1500ft in places allowing snow to fall over modest elevations across England and Wales this morning with some covering in places. This will be short-lived and after today uppers will rise to around 4000ft by Monday and higher by Tuesday. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming drier and brighter from the weekend but with the risk of cool nights and some frost for a time next week. Perhaps more showers again later especially across the South and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream pattern is now a split flow with one portion well South over Spain and North Africa in association with Low pressure down there. Another finger is moving West to East near Northern Scotland though this flow remains quite weak. The flow to the South feeds North by midweek and sets up another period of cool North winds as pressure remains quite high at Northern latitudes encouraging the flow to remain well South of normal. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of cool and unsettled weather across the UK as the Jet stream remains unco-operative in supplying sustained warmer weather. The current chill Northerly will be replaced by somewhat warmer conditions for a time early in the week as pressure builds strongly across the UK. this is then eroded by low pressure moving up from the SW midweek with some potentially thundery rain here while the North stay or become largely dry and bright. Then from the end of next week on we're back to where we are this weekend with a cold North or NE flow developing. This time though it looks longer lasting than this weekend with Low pressure lying close by with a cold NE feed from Scandinavia so showers and some longer spells of rain and hill snow are still possible despite approaching May. However, High pressure is shown to win back ground to lie across the UK at the end with a warmer SE feed. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run although similar in sequence High pressure remains closer to the UK through the end of next week firstly restricting the extent of any spread of unsettled weather from the South and also restricting the influence of the cold and showery North feed thereafter that the Operational run above shows. Nevertheless, there will be a lot of North in the wind with High pressure stuck over the Atlantic so temperatures would still be normal or somewhat below for the most parts with the continuing risk of night frosts where skies clear. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today still show a 75/25 split in preference of High pressure lying close to the NW of the UK in two weeks time with a chill NE flow likely to be blowing across the UK. The remaining 25% show High pressure over or to the South of the UK in an anticyclonic or Westerly feed. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure extending it's influence from across the South to the North through next week as Low pressure begins to move up from the South or SW towards the middle of next week. Temperatures will be on the rise again though with some thundery rain possible at times across the South from midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs clearing South with cold Northerly winds briefly before a ridge builds across the South and then extends North early next week. Low pressure over Spain and Iberia is then shown to move North towards the South towards midweek with a warmer ESE flow ahead of it. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning follows the same suit as the rest with High pressure early this week slowly being pushed North or NW as Low pressure to the South edges up towards Southern Britain strengthening an Easterly flow which eventually turns to a chillier North or NE'ly as High pressure establishes to the west and NW. Northern and Western parts would likely stay dry with night frosts while the South, East and particularly on this run the SE stay cold and breezy with showers or rain at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the same build of pressure in the coming days, firstly across the UK before it gets sucked away NW to Greenland by the end of the run opening the door to cold NE winds and heavy showers to sweep South to all parts by next weekend, this following a period when Southern England could have some thundery rain from a Southern European trough moving North midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today still shows the same theme as it and i't ensemble dats have shown for days in that the current cold day today will be replaced by a period of benign and settled weather lasting several days with temperatures recovering for many. However, Low pressure is shown to try and push North towards Southern Britain midweek with the risk of some showery rain. While this is happening High pressure over the North at the end of next week is sucked away to the NW near Greenland with a cold and showery NE flow developing across the UK although the NW lying close to the ridge from the Greenland High might stay dry. Frosts at night look very likely under any clear skies late in the period http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night continues the theme of High pressure likely over the Atlantic in 10 days time with Low pressure to the East or SE meaning a cool Northerly or NE'ly flow likely over the UK with some showers by day and frost by night http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Still too much emphasis on the trend for cool and showery North or NE winds to be blowing down across the UK in 10-14 days time for my liking. However, that is the main trend this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 87.5 pts and GFS at 84.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.1 pts to 60.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.6 pts to 39.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS It still looks far from ideal Springlike conditions for gardeners and growers this morning as they will despair at the amount of High pressure shown in the models this morning all in the wrong places to eradicate the risk of night frosts almost anywhere in the UK over the next 10-14 days. A notable frost is expected for all tonight as today's cold Northerly is replaced by a strong ridge of High pressure. This then gently feeds North in the following days to allow some warmer air to develop in the sunshine with the first few days of next week looking very respectable. However, we have not lost the Low pressure down to the South and towards midweek troughs from that edge up towards the South with potentially thundery rain likely for a time. This then looks like being pulled away to the East as not unlike this weekend a surge of colder air is pulled down from the NE as pressure retreats towards the NW Atlantic and Greenland. These NE winds would likely bring a mix of bright sunshine but some big and very cold April showers with soft hail, thunder and sleet all in the mix I would suspect and no doubt somewhere could see snow. As a result of this flow nights would be clear and cold inland with frosts likely but in compensation in the sun between the showers it should feel OK. The NW would probably see the best weather overall but having said all of the above the overall weather pattern is not concerning in the amounts of wind and rain totals but as I live in an area of avid gardeners and growers they will be disappointed that I am still talking frosts and cold showers at this stage in Spring rather than dry and warm ideal Spring conditions. However, I can only say what I see and lets hope that the models turn around in a days or so to take us out of this Northern blocking situation that has eluded us all Winter which not unsurprisingly has decided to turn up in Spring this year. Next Update Sunday April 17th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY APR 15TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure will move East along the English Channel today with a complex pattern of occluded fronts over the South and North accelerating away South tonight as a cold Northerly flow develops for all by tomorrow that in turn followed by a ridge of High pressure across the South on Sunday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures are falling markedly across the UK over the coming days from around 5000ft to nearer 2000ft over much of the UK through the weekend before rising slowly across the North by the start of the new week. Patchy snowfall over modest high ground is possible for a time, mostly over the North today and on the highest hills of the South too tomorrow morning. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming drier and brighter from the weekend but with the risk of cool nights and some frost for a time next week. Perhaps more showers again later especially across the South and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream pattern is changing as I type as the trough in the flow breaks up as the flow splits with a cut off Low to the South maintaining the main flow well to the South but with the UK lying under more of an influence to the Northern portions of the flow which is weaker and trending to move South across the UK at times. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of High pressure dominance across the UK over the next few weeks. A lot of dry weather is likely across the UK for much of the time but the one negative is the positioning of the High which is nearly always to the North or NW and allowing chilly Northerly winds to affect the UK for much of the period with some occasional showers especially in the East and South and more importantly some further frosts at night. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is very similar with High pressure mostly dominant out to the West of the UK with some showery rain moving South or SE across the UK at times with temperatures generally ending up somewhat depressed with the risk of night frosts although it may be somewhat warmer in the South for a time early next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today still show good support for High pressure to lie out to the West of the UK in 14 days with chilly Northerly winds likely at that time. The problem lies in how close High pressure is to the UK at that time and most members suggest not close enough with Low pressure close by with some rain or showers for many and only a total of 10 of members suggest High pressure close to the east of the UK offering a rather warmer and drier prospect. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a High pressure ridge just about holding on across the South to start next week with the North likely to see a little rain as troughs brush by to the North in a Westerly flow there. Then High pressure builds across the UK towards midweek with mostly dry weather for all with temperatures on the rise. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs clearing South tomorrow with cold Northerly winds briefly before a ridge builds across the South at the end of the weekend and for all by Day 5 with fine and dry weather but with frosts at night where skies stay clear. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows High pressure building across the South of the UK later in the weekend with a weak Westerly flow for a time across the North. Then a few days under High pressure brings fine and settled weather for all but with frosty nights before the High slips further towards the West and NW later keeping the door open for cold North or NE winds to re-invade the UK later with heavy and in places thundery and wintry showers with temperatures below average especially in the South and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the same build of pressure at the weekend slowly giving away again by the middle of next week from the North as Low pressure troughs down from the North with a chilly North wind and showers to end next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today looks a bit better than recently although the theme of chilly North or NW winds is maintained. The difference is that this morning's run shows High pressure closer in to the West late in the run with lighter winds and less risk of showers though I think frosts would still be an issue by night especially in low lying areas. Before we get there though there is 4-5 days of fine and settled weather developing with some sunshine and settled weather with temperatures recovering a little for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night continues the theme of High pressure likely over the Atlantic in 10 days time with Low pressure to the East and NE meaning a cool Northerly flow likely over the UK with some showers by day and frost by night http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Still a lot of High pressure dominated weather in prospect for the UK with the trend for High pressure to finish up to the West or NW of the UK. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts and GFS at 84.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.1 pts to 59.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.6 pts to 38.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There seems reasonable agreement on the fact that High pressure is going to play a large role in the conditions across the UK over the next couple of weeks as we lose the Low pressure based pattern centred down to the SW of the UK that we have had this week. So today sees the last of any warmth across the South along with the heavy and thundery showers as we pick up a cold Northerly tonight and tomorrow with some showers, wintry on hills for a time. With pressure rising quite quickly the cold Northerly soon gets replaced by lighter winds but with cold air aloft and near the surface night frosts look inevitable especially tomorrow night. After a little rain on a Westerly breeze over the North early next week the High pressure gradually exerts influence across more of the UK next week with some warmth returning for a time. However, it doesn't look the start of a long warm spell as the positioning of High pressure looks far from ideal in the longer term. It is likely to end up over the Atlantic or even further north to the NW keeping the door open to the North for chilly winds and potential showers from Low pressure over Europe to affect at least the South and East at times as well as maintaining the risk of cold nights with some unwelcome frosts. Nevertheless, for those planning outdoor activities there looks to be a sustained period of decent weather coming up with some sunshine and although record breaking high temperatures look unlikely, away from those pesky cold April showers conditions for most will end up acceptable through the period. Next Update Saturday April 16th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY APR 14TH 2016. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure down to the SW of the UK will begin to move NE towards the English Channel tonight accompanied by an occluded front which will move North over Southern England later. Another front will move South over Scotland tonight with very much colder air moving South behind it towards England and Wales over the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures are now in the range of 3000ft-5000ft across the UK currently with the pattern of the lowest uppers of 3000ft across the North lowering further to under 2000ft in a few days time and these very low uppers moving down across all of the UK over the weekend with snowfall a risk for a time over higher ground even in the South. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming drier and brighter from the weekend but with the risk of cool nights and some frost for a time next week. Perhaps more showers again later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream pattern will slowly change over the coming days as the steep trough in the flow weakening and simplifying as the main arm of the flow is pulled further South with the UK lying in a much slacker North to South drift for a time. Then later next week it looks like the trough could realign across the UK as Low pressure to the South moves back towards the South of the UK for a time. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current showery flow across the South with low pressure to the SW give way over the weekend to colder High pressure feeding in from the NW. This then sinks down across the South and away to the SE next week as Low pressure and showery conditions return later. However, changeable is a good term to use because High pressure is shown to return across the UK later and this time it could be rather warmer with light winds from the SE and some pleasant Spring weather towards the end of the period. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is somewhat different in the way of maintaining the next week unsettled phase a little longer spliced by higher pressure later this weekend especially in the South whereas later in the run the theme towards warmer and drier conditions again across the South in particular is brought about by rising pressure over nearby Europe and winds backing towards a warm Southerly at the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today still show a real mixed bag of options with the biggest share of the pack keeping Low pressure in control either just to the East or SE of the UK. in balance though there is some High pressure shown too with a 20% group in contrast putting High pressure close to the SE so confidence in long term predictions remain low. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure developing across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week following the expulsion of Low pressure away from the East of the UK on Saturday. This will bring fine and chilly weather with frost at night for a while before warmer SE winds develop in response to High pressure moving away to the East and possibly spelling a return to more showery conditions again from the SW by midweek next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the transition from unsettled and showery weather to cooler and High pressure based conditions later in the weekend and start to next week. Some weak troughs across the North early next week could cloud things over there with some light rain at times. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows High pressure building across the South of the UK later in the weekend with a weak westerly flow for a time across the North. The current showery theme will dissolve over the weekend with cool and fair conditions. Then next week High pressure migrates North and showery weather could return from Iberia across the South and later east too as High pressure finally moves out into the Atlantic and setup another cool and showery flow across the South and East with the best weather then in the North and west while staying chilly everywhere. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the same build of pressure at the weekend slowly giving away again by the middle of next week from the South as showery Low pressure from both the South and North regain control of the weather over the UK by this time next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today looks a bit like GEM as it jostles High pressure around the UK over the latter half of the weekend and start to next week before Low pressure from the South returns warmer but showery air north across Britain midweek leading on to High pressure drawn out into the Atlantic later with a chilly and showery NE flow developing then across the South and East while dry but cool conditions with frost at night looks possible still across the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night continues the theme of High pressure likely over the Atlantic in 10 days time with Low pressure to the east and NE meaning a cool Northerly flow likely over the UK with some showers by day and frost by night http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a more definitive agreement shown between the models this morning of High pressure becoming much more dominant across the UK next week, eventually positioning to the West and ensuring cooler air for many following a somewhat warmer phase midweek next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts and GFS at 85.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.9 pts to 59.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.4 pts to 38.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models seem to be getting a good handle on the course of events over the next 4- 5 days across the UK although the longer term outlook still looks a bit mixed between the different models. In the short term there looks like a change to cooler but drier weather across the South and I know many have had a very pleasant couple of days others have seen some very heavy showers and these showers will if anything become more numerous and widespread in the coming days before colder and clearer air spreads down from the North over the weekend as the Low pressure that's been down to the SW finally exits east into Europe. The air will be very chilly for mid April and frosts at night under clearing skies will be a big feature early next week in the South whereas the North might turn more cloudy with a little rain as troughs brush East to the North. Thereafter it's all about how the High pressure responsible for the better conditions in the South moves North and allows a period of warmer SE winds ahead of a return to heavy showers later next week as Low pressure finds it's way North from Spain. The general theme then is for the possible return of colder NE winds as there is a lot of support for High pressure to become anchored out to the West of the UK with cool showery winds from Low pressure near the SE to affect Southern and Eastern areas at least but we are talking a long way out by then and confidence on any one evolution from late next week verifying comes with lower than usual confidence. What is more certain is that frosts at night remain a big risk at times over the coming few weeks with any Northerly influence escalating the risk further so gardeners beware. For the rest of us the next few weeks will probably end up having seen a lot of dry and fair weather for many just punctuated by April showers but if I had to be picky I would prefer to see rather more of a Southerly influence to the air-flows across the UK rather than the North especially given we are edging towards May. Next Update Friday April 15th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY APR 13TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION There remains little change in the synopses across the UK today with Low pressure to the SW feeding warm Southerly air across the South while a colder east or NE flow persisting across the North separated by an occluded front. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures are now in the range of 3000ft-5000ft across the UK currently with the pattern of the lowest uppers of 3000ft across the North and the warmest uppers of 5000ft + remaining across the South http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming drier and brighter from the weekend but with the risk of cool nights and some frost next week. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will continue to be static in an omega trough form just to the West of the UK in association with low pressure to the SW. This pattern remains in situ for some time yet before the flow splits with a finger flowing East to the North but with the main cyclonic flow still at some point to the South of the UK with any simplification in this pattern occurring right at the end of the run when the Northern flow is shown to be blowing South across the UK with the main flow still well South near Africa. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a continuation of the showery and eventually cooler theme by the weekend as colder winds come South behind Low pressure just prior to the weekend. Then a ridge moves into the UK from the West with a fine but chilly spell by night with some frosts before cool and changeable cyclonic conditions return quite quickly from the South next week with rain or showers and some hill snow possible at times, this chiefly over Northern high ground while in the second week winds maintain a Northerly element as well as keeping the risk of night frosts alive where skies stay clear with a sun and shower mix by day, these especially in the East. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is similar to the operational in theme with cool winds from the North or NE the main feature of the period. A drier phase at the weekend is soon displaced by Low pressure from the SW next week before this is superseded by another surge of cold air from the NE with the heady April mix of sunshine and on high ground wintry showers with the cool and changeable conditions under pressure systems from the North maintained out to the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today offer no clues as to the pattern we are likely to lie under in two weeks time as there are equally sized clusters around Low or High pressure being influential across the UK at that time. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a better prospect at least for the South following the exit east of Low pressure out of Southern Britain at the weekend. Until then a sunshine and shower mix in quite warm temperatures in the South while the North has a cloudier and cooler spell with some rain. Then all areas become cooler at the weekend with the weather settling down if rather cool wit the risk of frost at night returning. Then the North might become a bit more showery early next week under Low pressure zones near Norway. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate only slow changes in the next 3-4 days before Low pressure to the SW finally moves away East over the weekend with a ridge following and although cool out of the sun and definitely by night when some frost is possible http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today is very much more High pressure based from the weekend as the current showery Low pressure finally moves away and is replaced by High pressure, not ideally positioned for the UK with the centre often to the West and allowing a rather cold Northerly drift to be maintained and certainly allowing the risk of frost to be a very real one. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today is not so good and while it does fill the current showery Low pressure up at the weekend any ridging from the Atlantic that the other models show is muted with shallow Low pressure still close enough by to permit some showers at times, again in rather cool air sourced originally from the North or North-east. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today also shows High pressure governing the weather across the UK from the end of the weekend as the current showery trough across the South finally loses the battle from Sunday. The weather will become dry but with the High pressure always to the West and the NW eventually things never look likely to be very warm after the next few days. There could be some showers at times again later in the East wintry on the highest hills and more importantly whilst dry and settled for most other areas frosts could become a major problem for gardeners and growers should synopses develop in this way. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night is leaning more towards a cool Northerly the likely option for the UK in 10 days time with High pressure anchored out to the West and Low pressure towards Scandinavia http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a more definitive agreement shown between the models this morning of High pressure becoming much more dominant across the UK next week, positioned to the West and ensuring cooler air for many. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.7 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts and GFS at 85.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.9 pts to 58.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.7 pts to 38.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There are better signs today that the weather could become more settled as we move out of the weekend and into next week. In the meantime the generally rather warm and showery weather in the South and cloudy damp conditions over the North continues for several more days with Friday looking potentially quite wet for some. Then as a cool northerly envelops the UK behind the Low pressure will be rising from the West with dry and fine weather increasingly likely. However, with cold air across the UK sourced from the North and the main High centre staying to the West it always look like chilly with no doubt some frosts at night where winds are light and skies stay clear. This more settled pattern is shown to be relatively short-lived from some models with deteriorations shown either from the South or North so there is a lot of doubt on any particular outcome at this stage. The one thing of note is that there looks likely to be a lot of High pressure at Northern latitudes next week and this is not necessarily good news in regard to temperatures as the door remains ajar to repeated cold pools to be pulled down over the UK in association with High pressure well north in the Atlantic. However, if High pressure can settle towards Scandinavia we are getting to the point in the year where this could start to feed warmer air up from SE Europe over the UK but this is I'm afraid not shown at the moment with the bias much more on a rather chilly period with a lot of dry and bright days but with some very unwelcome frosts in places looking inevitable and some showers at times with even a little wintriness on Northern hills at times. Next Update Thursday April 14th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY APR 12TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure remains centred to the SW of the UK with a slack and unstable airflow across the South of the UK ahead of a slow moving trough across Northernmost England and Southern Scotland. Little change in this general setup is likely over the next few days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures are now in the range of 5000ft across the UK currently and for the South this looks like the level they remain at for the rest of this week. In the North the level will slowly fall later in the week to around 3500ft http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather unsettled with some rain or showers at times. Probably turning drier with time especially across the North and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will be troughed down to the SW of the UK over the next 5-6 days with only slow changes thereafter with a split flow developing for a time next week, one South and one North of the UK before the Northern arm merges with the one to the South with an indecisive final positioning of the flow looking likely by the end of the two week period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a changeable pattern with all changes being slow and subtle. In the next week it looks like a slow migration of Low pressure currently to the SW moving across Southern England and away to the East over the weekend looks likely with all the time big showers and some more prolonged rainfall between warm sunny intervals the order of each day. High pressure is then shown to build across the Uk early next week with a spell of dry and bright weather with temperatures near average by day but cool at night with some frosts. Then further unsettled and cool conditions moves down from the North later next week with the run ending with a NW flow across the UK with rain at times over the North and East while the best weather develops over the SW in generally rather cool conditions. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is similar to the operational in theme but day to day differences are of course apparent as we move deeper into the period with the second week offering a mix of rain and showers at times and some days of fine and bright weather as Lows and Highs battle for supremacy over and around the UK in a confused second half of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show quite strong support for High pressure to lie out to the West of the UK in some shape or form which would lead to the UK lying under a chilly NW or North flow with some showers in places especially over the North and East. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows there is still a lot of mileage left in the showery theme across the UK currently. The Low pressure to the SW slowly migrates ENE across the South later in the week and that is followed by a ridge of High pressure collapsing SE down the North Sea changing winds towards the SE by the start of next week with showers still a risk in the South and SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate only slow improvements over the North in the next 5 days but none at all in the South as shallow Low pressure continues to lie close to Southern England later in the week with a concoction of troughs ensuring plenty more showers and outbreaks of rain for these areas while colder and drier air from the NE slowly filters down from the North by the end of Day 5 http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows Low pressure well in control of the UK weather for a further 4-5 days before a change to higher pressure and a more conventional pressure pattern of High pressure lying over or close to the UK next week brings about a cessation in rain and showers with time to a quiet and more benign period next week with some sunshine and average temperatures by day but possibly chilly nights. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows pressure patterns only changing very slowly as Low pressure remains slow moving near to Southern England over the weekend and start to next week all the time promoting some heavy showers at times over the South whereas the North may become largely dry of cool from the weekend as a ridge slowly exerts some influence for a time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today while offering no heatwave does promote changes in the pattern from the end of the weekend as High pressure ridges in strongly from the West. How long it lasts look very tentative as the threat of cold air flooding South over the UK looks strong just to the North of the UK on a couple of occasions from the weekend and while certainly a drier prospect looking likely temperatures look suppressed with some unwelcome night frosts feasible especially in the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night is gradually settling into thoughts of High pressure ridging down from the North in 10 days which if evolved would deliver fine and bright weather for many with a chilly North wind in the east and the risk of some night frosts. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The biggest messages from today's output is the slow improvements indicated from Low pressure very slow to lose influence from Southern Britain and the extent of High pressure ridges moving down over the UK next week and how long this theme lasts. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.3 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts and GFS at 85.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.2 pts to 58.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.3 pts to 38.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Changes remain slow within the charts this morning with another 5-6 days at least of this Low pressure area to the SW extending influence across Southern England giving rise to sunny spells but big showers, heavy and slow moving at times. In the North colder air will be en-trained and this could be enhanced by the weekend dragging drier air South by the start of next week and with a variety of pressure patterns showing High pressure in some shape or form becoming influential for a while better weather should reach the South too but never overly warm with the risk of night frosts a very real one. then as we look further out into the second week there is no clear cut theme shown but there does at least seem a propensity to keep winds blowing from a chilly North direction with High pressure eventually somewhere out to the west and SW with the best weather developing there while the North and East might see some rain in a chilly NW breeze. It's only UKMO that supports a SE breeze developing next week as it's High pressure slips SE over the North Sea. So as you can tell still a lot of indecision in the models longer term this morning and while nothing particularly unusual is being shown it looks unlikely the magic 21C 70F figure is likely to be breached within the term of the outputs on offer this morning with a greater chance of some night frosts still if skies clear overnight under the higher pressure next week. Next Update Wednesday April 13th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY APR 11TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A large depression lies well to the SW of the UK with an occluded front across Ireland, Wales and Central Southern England. This will swing North across Eastern Britain later to lie East to West over Northern England by tomorrow with a slack airflow across the South promoting thundery showers by day. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The upper air temperatures have risen across the UK over the last 24 hours with the level expected to lie between 5000ft and 6000ft across the South in the coming days with levels a little lower than this at times over the North. Little if any snow is expected to fall across the UK in the coming days. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather unsettled with some rain or showers at times. Probably turning drier with time especially across the North and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST All indications are that the Jet Stream will remain steered by Low pressure down to the SW of the UK through this week. It does weaken with time late in the week and become more variable in position as pressure builds across the UK for a time in the middle of the period. Then towards the end of the run Low pressure looks to re-establish across the UK with the Jet Stream pulled South. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a largely unsettled couple of weeks although having said that of you live across the North and East a lot of dry and none too warm weather looks likely too. Low pressure to the SW takes all week and much of next weekend to finally move across the South of the UK and away to the East taking it's rain and showers with it. Then pressure builds strongly to the North with a SE flow setting up with some rain restricted to the SW. Then as a tongue of cold air is drawn West over the North Sea and engages with Low pressure near the UK deepening Low pressure over us and ending the period with wet and windy conditions for all across the UK. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is pretty supportive of the theme of the Operational Run so we should expect a similar showery and unsettled period especially across Southern Britain whereas the best of the dry and brighter conditions look likely across the North and in particular the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today still show a 10% cluster who support High pressure across the UK in 14 days time. However, the vast majority of members continue to project Low pressure more likely to lie somewhere in the vicinity of the UK with rain or showers at times with average temperatures overall. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a less encouraging end of the week again this morning as the previously projected ridge of High pressure building down across the UK on yesterday's output is delayed at least as Low pressure holds a foothold across the South of the UK with showers and some more prolonged rain in places but some dry and cool conditions at times in the far North and bright, warmer weather in the far South too between the downpours. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate a very complex week of weather to come too with the day to day detail very hard to pin down from place to place but in general it would appear that some rain or showers can be expected for many especially across the South where it could feel rather warmer than of late all due to Low pressure and troughs feeding up from the SW at times while the North sees cooler conditions with troughs feeding down from the North towards the weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows another version of the unsettled theme with it showing Low pressure near or over the UK in the coming week with rain at times along with some cool air too at times especially over the North. Then a brief drier spell looks likely under a brief rise in pressure before further Low pressure off the Atlantic moves SE into the UK later with more rain and showers for most. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a Low pressure trough ensconced across the South of the UK through this week with the best of the weather in the far North but heavy showers and outbreaks of rain likely elsewhere on most days before a slow improvement is shown to develop down across the UK from the NW for the weekend albeit a bit on the cool side especially at night by then as a ridge of High pressure builds across. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM on the other hand follows the theme of yesterday albeit rather slower to develop. The weekdays sees slack Low pressure maintain showery conditions across the South with cool winds and rain at times lodged across the North. Then by and over the weekend High pressure builds down across the UK from the North and then a much more quiet and benign period of weather looks likely in a ESE flow for all with the best and warmest conditions likely to be in the far West and NW with most places staying dry by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night again offers few clues as to where we are in 10 days time with slack pressure not only over the UK but also over the Atlantic and Europe too so though no bad weather is expected whether the weather be dry or showery remains a little unclear. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Although there is still a fair amount of support for Low pressure based conditions to continue across the UK there are still slightly weaker signs than yesterday that some better weather might develop as High pressure tries to build down across the UK from the North displacing the Low pressure influence from the SW. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.9 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.5 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts and GFS at 84.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.4 pts to 58.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.8 pts to 39.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS A new week and the weather continues to live up to a very normal April standard with plenty of days this week of sunshine and showers, heavy and thundery in places but with some warm sunshine too. In the North skies will be cloudier and as a result cooler with occasional rain here too though the far North could stay dry. All of this remains driven by Low pressure down to the SW which takes at least until the weekend to either fill or move away East allowing the ridge to the NW to sink it's influence down across all of the UK with time. UKMO has separated from it's partner ECM this morning and has reverted to show influence of a tongue of cold uppers to move SW across the North Sea and culminate in another Low pressure zone over or near the UK by next Sunday with GFS also looking less hopeful longer term. However, having said all of the above because the driving pressure systems controlling our weather this week are so slow moving I think we can expect more swings from the models through the coming week as small adjustments to the positioning of troughs, Low and High pressure in the generally expected slack air flows over the UK through the period could mean the patterns and details in conditions place to place will be difficult to predict. However, there looks a good chance of some warmth in the sunshine between the showers across the South and though cold air and the risk of frost remains a possibility over the North this is all standard Spring fayre for the UK and as a result we can continue to watch the pattern of spring growth and wildlife continue unaffected by weather in the coming few weeks. Next Update Tuesday April 12th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY APR 10TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A deepening depression lies down to the SW of the British isles today with a developing East or SE flow across the UK, very strong in the SW. Troughs of Low pressure will swing up across the South and West of the UK later today and more especially tomorrow while the East flow steadily slackens again. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The cold uppers across the UK with freezing levels under 2000ft will lift today and tomorrow with levels exceeding 5000ft for all and perhaps as high as 6500ft across Eastern Britain removing the risk of snowfall above all summits south of Scotland in the next few days. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather unsettled with some rain or showers at times. Probably turning drier with time especially across the North and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST All indications are that the Jet Stream will remain well South of the UK for some considerable time from this morning's predictions from GFS influenced by persistent Low pressure down to the SW of the UK for much of the period. It may change it's alignment somewhat in Week 2 but maintain a position far from ideal for any major Spring warm outbreak for the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today endorses the Jet Stream forecast above with Low pressure down to the SW of the UK dominant throughout the coming week as spores from it evolve NE across the UK. In week 2 more Low pressure over or near the UK maintains showers and longer spells of rain and strong winds too a risk but with as always some drier and brighter exceptions at times. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is pretty much the same although day to day differences are apparent and in Week 2 a gradual erosion away from the South of the lowest pressure swings winds into a strong West or SW point with some drier and warmer spells developing across the South and East with time and pushing the worst of the wind and rain away to the more traditional pattern of the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a very mixed bag of options possible in 14 days ranging from a continuation of unsettled UK based Low pressure pattern whereas there is some more encouraging evidence of higher pressure close by from about 25% of members. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a more encouraging picture than of late as Low pressure to the SW weakens through the week and a ridge of High pressure gradually extends some influence down across the UK from the NW so that many places could end the week rather drier though with rather chilly air at times especially over the North and East where frosts at night look possible along with some showers near the East coast. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate a very complex week of weather to come with the day to day detail very hard to pin down from place to place but in general it would appear that some rain or showers can be expected for many especially across the South where it could feel rather warmer than of late all due to Low pressure and troughs feeding up from the SW at times. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows another version of the unsettled theme with it showing Low pressure near or over the UK in the coming week with rain at times along with some cool air too at times especially over the North. Then a brief drier spell looks likely across the South and East as pressure builds there before further Low pressure off the Atlantic moves SE into the UK later with more rain and showers for most. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a very slack Low pressure area across the UK for much of the next week fuelling a lot of heavy and slow moving thundery showers for many especially over inland areas through the afternoons with some cool and clear nights empowering the risk of some ground frosts by night especially over the North. Being April though some warm sunshine will also be present for all, warmest in the Sooth in the first half of the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM on the other hand follows it's partner UKMO in showing rather better conditions developing later in the week as Low pressure to the SW weakens and a ridge pushes down across the UK from the NW culminating in a High pressure area near the North Sea by next weekend which then gently evolves NE to allow a SE flow to develop across the UK with rain bearing fronts over the Atlantic appearing to hold off towards the far SW by the end of the 10 day period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from this morning is a very complex chart giving few if any clues as to what we can expect in 10 days time. On the face of it the chart is much improved from recent days but this is a day when the chart offers little depiction of what we might expect as there is a fairly even split of members opting for showery Low pressure persisting and those that show High pressure more influential towards the NE of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Although there is still a fair amount of support for Low pressure based conditions to continue across the UK there are encouraging signs from the most reputable models of UKMO and ECM that the other models may be too progressive in their prediction and that as a result rather drier and more benign conditions could more likely develop towards next weekend and beyond. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.9 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts and GFS at 84.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.8 pts to 58.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.1 pts to 39.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There are a few more encouraging signs from some of the most respected models this morning as this weeks anticipated Low pressure might not give us the persistent rain and showers that previous model runs indicated. However, the pattern is far from straightforward as Low pressure to the SW in a cut off condition that it is can be notoriously fickle beasts for models to deal with as the general filling and movement of the Low can be instrumental in where we move thereafter and there are plenty of very feasible options on the table this morning ranging from unsettled, wet, windy and cool weather to dry and bright conditions with a benign pressure pattern across the UK hinted at by the Euros. I think a few more days are needed before the end of the week pattern can become more agreed and established between the models and while that time is elapsing it looks like some rain or showers will continue across the UK, especially in the South until the middle of the week at least and in that time it will feel rather warmer at times than of late. So rather than dwell on which models have the best handle on the longer term synoptics I will wait a day or two more before casting any judgement on what lies ahead of us beyond this week. The one thing I can say is that there is nothing nasty likely for anyone and it all shapes up to be a far from untypical pattern for this time in Spring. Next Update Monday April 11th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY APR 8TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge of High pressure crossing East over the UK today will be followed by an occluded front moving NE across the UK tonight and tomorrow followed by a slack and showery cold flow over the South and West tomorrow in association with a deepening Low pressure area to the SW of the UK on Sunday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK around 3500ft across the UK currently will rise briefly in association with a trough moving NE over the UK tonight. It then falls to as low as 1700ft over Southern and Western England and Wales for 24 hours or so before levels rise towards 5000ft+ early next week. There could be some snowfall over modest hills of the South and West tomorrow. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled with showers or spells of rain with some brighter spells too especially over the North. Near average or slightly below average temperatures. Perhaps warmer later in the SE. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to maintain a trough or circulation to the South of the UK over the next week to 10 days with the Jet flow realigning towards the North of the UK later in the second week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of showery and unsettled weather across the UK over the next week as Low pressure to the SW remains in situ and extends in a belt across the UK at times delivering showers and longer spells of rain at times with temperatures recovering to nearer average in the South but remaining on the cool side over the North. then through the second week High pressure builds back over the UK from the NW settling things down to dry and fine weather for many although the positioning of the High on this run allows for a chilly Northerly flow to affect the East coast at times perhaps with the odd shower and frosts at night still look a real possibility under any clear skies by the end of the period. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run as yesterday is less optimistic surrounding improvements over Week 2 as Low pressure areas transfer to over or to the North and NE of the UK with cyclonic winds and a continuation of spells of rain and showers continuing for all out to the end of the run and it will remain largely cool too. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show almost complete Low pressure dominance across the UK in two weeks time with the positioning favouring Northern Britain with cool Atlantic West or NW winds bringing rain and showers at times for all. Of those members that show any deviation to this pattern are not offering anything better to be honest. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a breezy and unsettled start to the new week with Low pressure always in close proximity. There will be spells of rain and showers for all in temperatures at best near average and rather cool in the NE flow on the Northern flank of the Low pressure belt across the UK by midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show Low pressure setting up shop down to the SW of the UK over the weekend and start to next week with rain and showers at times, the showers most likely across the South and the longer spells of rain across Central parts as fronts stagnate with the driest weather but coolest conditions by then in the far North while some less cool conditions are likely to move into the South at times. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows the synoptic pattern stuck in a rut once Low pressure develops close to the SW of the UK over the next few days, Throughout the period showers or longer spells of rain look likely almost everywhere and any when with some drier and brighter spells mixed in too and temperatures after a cool weekend could recover somewhat across the South with time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today also maintains a very unsettled outlook with Low pressure down to the SW remaining in control of the weather for the upcoming week weakening for a time midweek but reinvigorated again in time for next weekend and all the while maintaining at least the risk of rain and showers at times for most of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today continues illustrate similar synoptics to the rest of this morning's outputs with only tentative improvements hinted at towards the end of it's 10 day period. So Low pressure to the SW will extend across the UK at times with rain and showers at times with some brief drier periods too. Then at the very end of the period the link between Low pressure to the NE and SW is severed with a slack area of pressure developing meaning somewhat drier and warmer conditions look likely by the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure painfully close to the West of the UK with cyclonic winds likely across the UK at 10 days with rain or thundery showers at times still the order of the likely conditions expected for most. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models once more this morning. The trend towards yesterday's shown improvements has been somewhat muted again this morning with little change in the overall changeable and occasionally wet conditions. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.0 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.4 pts and GFS at 85.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.7 pts to 60.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.9 pts to 41.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models have shown a lot of consistency this week in maintaining their projection of Low pressure developing down to the SW of the UK this weekend and here we are at Friday and that is still the message shown by all output without exception. The problems arrive that once there how long will it remain there and how will we eventually break out of the pattern. I begun to think yesterday that the Low would eventually fill and allow higher pressure to gain more influence with warmer conditions given time and that message is still hinted at by some members of each model. However, there is also a lot of focus on a surge of cold air to flood SW over the Norwegian Sea next week and getting caught up in the circulation of Low pressure close to or over the UK by then serving to deepen it again and strengthen the risk of further spells of wind, rain and showers. Of course day to day details on this pattern depends on how exactly it evolves but it does look like the next 10-14 days look fairly unsettled and cool with showers or longer spells of rain at times mixed in with some drier and brighter periods when in April sunshine it should not feel too bad. This type of pattern is not too untypical of April as the April showers saying is testament too and it does give the opportunity for some big shower clouds to grace our skies on occasion with the words 'hail and thunder' a part of the weather forecasts for the next week or so at least almost anywhere. Temperatures look like they might recover across the South given time but it does look like staying largely cool across the North throughout. So that's it from me for today, I will be taking a day off from the models tomorrow but will be back on Sunday morning for a roundup of what lies ahead for the next few weeks across the UK. Next Update Sunday April 10th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY APR 6TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool NW flow over the UK will weaken as a weak trough clears SE over England this afternoon with an area of slack pressure ahead of an occluded front approaching Western and SW Britain later tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain below average for this time in April hovering around the 3000ft mark for much of the time though rising briefly across the SW later tomorrow before falling to as low as below 2000ft behind an occlusion on Saturday. As a result some snowfall is expected in showers above 1000ft today and possible 600ft on Saturday in the West. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled with showers or spells of rain with some brighter spells too especially over the North. Near average or slightly below average temperatures. Perhaps warmer later in the SE. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to maintain a trough or circulation to the South of the UK over the next week to 10 days with the Jet flow only slowly recovering it's way Northwards in a NE flow over the UK at the end of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of cyclonic conditions across the UK over the first week. With Low pressure to the SW the UK will be subject to areas of rain and showers moving up from the SW periodically with some quite chilly conditions across the North. Then from the beginning of Week 2 the unsettled and cool conditions will slowly give way to drier and brighter weather especially towards the South and East with the unsettled weather restricted towards the North and West by the end of the period. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run is less optimistic in the second week as Low pressure after a brief lull re-invigorates and moves across the UK from the West with rain and showers for all still with just a hint of better weather moving in from the West and SW right at the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a Low pressure bias again at Day 14 though positioning and influence to what areas is harder to interpret with a 20% cluster indicating a more High pressure based pattern at that point with drier and quieter conditions as a result. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure a little less influential as we move through the start of next week as it's positioning seems further to the SW than on previous runs and while some rain and showers is likely across the South and SW in particular some dry and breezy weather is likely in the North where it will feel cool. This period of relatively unsettled conditions then looks like continuing as we move towards the second half of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show Low pressure setting up shop down to the SW of the UK over the weekend and start to next week with rain and showers spilling North across the UK from time to time occasionally accompanied by strong and cool SE winds while some warmer brighter periods also look possible especially towards the East and North. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today continues it'e recent pattern of maintaining it's unsettled feel throughout the next 10 days with Low pressure dominant down to the SW at first then after a brief respite towards the middle of next week we see further Low pressure across the UK later which will maintain an unsettled and sometimes cool feel to conditions with rain and showers for all right out to day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today also maintains a very unsettled outlook with Low pressure down to the SW influential throughout. Rain or showers would be the order of the day with some longer spells of both wet and drier conditions for all the latter especially in the early part of the week in the North while by the end of the run all areas look at risk of some strong winds and rain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM shows largely unsettled conditions continuing over the next week as Low pressure slips South to lie to the SW of the UK. Rain and showers can be expected for all through this period through the far NE may see the least of this while it is cold in a raw East wind. Some warmer and drier interludes could occur between the showers in the South. Then towards the end of the period a change in the charts indicate dry and settled conditions under UK based High pressure having developed with sunny spells and the risk of slight night frosts likely should this pattern evolve. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure further to the West and SW than of late at 10 days with resultant milder Southerly winds and rain or showers restricted towards the South and West rather than elsewhere possible if this develops as shown. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models once more this morning though there is a trend towards improvements later. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 85.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.0 pts to 61.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.8 pts to 41.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There are slow changes shown within the output again this morning but at least such changes do appear to be leaning towards somewhat better conditions over all developing late in the period. If these improvements are to verify we have to lose the deep trough expected to develop down to the SW of the UK in a few days time where it looks in no hurry to move from for some considerable time. Nevertheless, some output has placed this feature a little more to the SW today and if this is so some warmer continental air may be allowed to filter across the South at times with less in the way of rain and showers too away from the SW. It looks like the North will stay cool under an Easterly feed, particularly so in the far NE. Then as the Lo to the SW fills somewhat it still looks possible for it to be re-invigorated by another tongue of cold air moving SW from Norway and engaging in the Low pressures circulation to the SW and creating a resurgence of wet and unsettled conditions at times later next week. However, having said that ECM has moved away from this theme and splitting Low pressure to the SW and NE then with High pressure which would settled things down nicely next weekend. Other output too show the chance of lifting Low pressure towards the NW which would give rise to another route to rather better weather across the South and East with milder air in tow. So in summary while some improvements are shown today it needs all the jigsaw pieces to fall in the right places for it to verify and with still a lot of cool and unstable air around on the charts this morning we may well have to be patient for marked improvements in the overall pattern to develop. However, it is April and any sunshine will make all the difference to how things feel and while unsettled remains the nature of this morning's report it's not all doom and gloom and quite normal for this time in Spring Next Update Friday April 8th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY APR 6TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak trough will move East over remaining parts of Central and eastern Britain followed by a cold and showery Westerly flow with an occlusion moving SE across England and Wales tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will drop to around 3000ft or so today and continue there over the next few days. There will be some snowfall over high ground above around 2500ft today and for the next few so taking in many higher hills and mountains of Scotland, Ireland, Wales and the North. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled with showers or spells of rain with some brighter spells too especially over the North. Near average or slightly below average temperatures. Perhaps warmer later in the SE. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to maintain a trough across the UK over the next week to 10 days with the Jet flow carried well to the South of the UK. It's not until later in the second week when the trough dissipates and the flow becomes much less organized and weaker. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show unsettled and cool synoptics over the next few weeks with Low pressure gradually aligning to a point near SW England by the weekend and persisting there for quite a while bringing spells of rain and showers to many especially the South. Then through the second week the Lows weaken as a ridge moves in off the Atlantic with a drier and brighter interlude before unsettled and cool weather is shown returning from the North at the very end of the run. GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run shows unsettled conditions across the UK too for the first week as it too shows Low pressure becoming established to the SW of the UK with rain or showers meandering about for all in among some sunny intervals. Then through the second week warmer air will move across England and Wales as winds turn more South or SW though still with the risk of rain especially over the West and North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a generally better trend to that of late with the majority now showing either slack conditions across the UK at worst and an interesting 5% of clusters showing an intense anticyclone over Ireland established by then. However, I would estimate a 50/50 split in members between showery and dry conditions at day 14. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure settling down to the SW of the UK over the coming weekend with troughs swinging up into Southern England and becoming slow moving across somewhere across the UK with cold and wet weather where it lies while sunshine and showers with hail and thunder in places look more likely in the South where a few warmer sunny spells between the showers look likely. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex situation developing through the latter half of this week and the weekend with rain and showers never far away from all areas. With Low pressure becoming lodged across and to the SW of the UK with rain and showers for all in average temperatures but with some warmer air en-trained across the South at times turning some of the rain thundery. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows an unsettled period to come as the current cool and showery theme is enhanced by renewed Low pressure feeding down over and to the West of the UK over this weekend. So rain and showers for all in rather cool and sometimes breezy conditions look certain. The trend is then for conditions to steadily improve next week as Low pressure fills up in situ to the SW and a ridge slowly builds across the UK by the end of next week with drier and brighter conditions for many areas then as a result. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows Low pressure setting up shop down to the SW of the UK with cyclonic winds and rain at times likely for all throughout the weekend and start to next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM shows another unsettled run this morning with cyclonic conditions throughout the period. In the first week Low pressure developing over and then to the SW of the UK will give rise to the usual mix of showers or longer spells of rain but with a few warmer brighter intervals between the thundery showers. The North and NE may feel very cool under an Easterly for much of the time. Then towards the end of the run Low pressure realigns towards the North of the UK with a more standard blustery SW flow with rain at times and perhaps warmer and brighter conditions developing at times towards the South and East by the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night continues to predict that in 10 days time we will still lie under a showery Low pressure close to or over the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models once more this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 85.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.2 pts to 61.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.6 pts to 41.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Changes in the weather pattern look very slow over the next few weeks with Low pressure continuing to rule the roost. We currently are undergoing a change towards rather cold and showery conditions which will certainly feel much colder than the last few days across the South. Showers will be focused across the North today and the East tomorrow with the SW fairing not too bad outside of the strong and cold breeze. Then over Friday and the weekend another trough moving across from the west will develop a parent low pressure down to the SW which once established looks like lying in situ down there for some considerable time spiraling spells of rain ad showers North across the UK. The North and particularly NE of the UK could well become cold and grey especially near the East coast while Southern areas seeing some bright weather at times between what would likely be heavy and thundery April showers and here it could occasionally feel less cool. Then as we look over the horizon towards the second week the general consensus sees Low pressure gradually filling but remaining influential to many parts of the UK with slow moving April showers. With pressure high at Northern latitudes and with some output suggesting another surge of cool air moving down from the NE later in the second week it could be that Low pressure becomes established further but hopefully this time more towards the North of the UK and perhaps allowing the South and East to eventually see some drier and warmer periods between more broken spells of wind and rain with the emphasis of the worst weather to be more traditionally towards the North and West. It looks once more this morning that reliable dry, fine and warm Spring conditions are a figment of imagination in this morning's output and it looks increasingly likely that we will have to wait for late April at least to see temperatures comfortably in the mid teens or above regularly. Next Update Thursday April 7th 2016 from 09:00