Gibby

Shows how dangerous it is out there tonight on the roads. An hour ago visibility was less than 50yds then less than an hour later fog has lifted as cloud rolls over the top.

Dull and grey start following just a couple of mm of overnight rain. 8.6C in a light ENE breeze.

Ok. Thanks for that. I'll check it out when I get 5 mins tomorrow.

Wow it seems an age since I've been on here but after a busy summer part spent abroad and all sorts of work, home and leisure commitments time has been all consuming. However in that time I've managed a new look website which hasn't appeared to have too many glitches yet. I also post a lot of local data on the Facebook link 'Kilmersdon Weather' if anyone is interested. Meanwhile it's been a strange Summer with all our warmth coming from short off shoots of the Azores High which clear off after a few days to return us to standard Atlantic weather. The one constant has been High pressure up over Greenland. This current heat has registered 28.9C here today in a very pleasant breeze from the SSE. Cloudier and somewhat cooler tomorrow but will it thunder later?. I'll be watching down to the SSW for developments tomorrow but I have a feeling this event could be for Central Southern and SE England. Let's see what transpires.

Readers of my website will of noticed that some of the detail in the services it provides have been temporarily suspended or modified while a new website is being built and this is true of the Model Analysis page. So from now until further notice just 'My Thoughts' will be published daily here. The new website should be online sometime in July and my regular daily analysis as you know it will return then. In the meantime here's my thoughts for today's crop of output. The model output today still show a lot of slack pressure likely across the UK for another week at least as no one pressure area (be it low or high) has overall control of the UK weather. For the time being High pressure to the North and Low pressure over Europe maintains an East or NE feed of air across the UK bringing warmer air from Europe at the weekend and re-introducing thundery showers in places especially over the South and West. Then a Low pressure area over the Atlantic may hold the key to a move away from the current pattern as it drifts ENE towards the UK next week. With pressure then slowly rising over Europe some better conditions look likely there while the UK turns more unsettled with rain and showers in winds more from the SW than for some considerable time. While this process is undertaken some very warm air could waft over the South and East making any rain thundery in nature in places. GFS takes this Low pressure further to the North with the South and East seeing the warmest and driest weather of the two weeks in this evolution before it too joins the cooler unsettled theme later in Week 2. The GFS Clusters support the theme of the UK under an unsettled Atlantic feed of air with rain and showers at Day 14 with ECM's mean chart for Day10 illustrating something along similar lines.So all in all today a change looks on the way but we may have to be patient and for those who have basked in recent sunshine and warmth in the NW of the UK the change may not be so welcome as it looks like it could become their turn to see some rain and showers while the South and East have a better chance of seeing some warmth and dry periods between scattered thundery showers.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUN 1ST 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A NE flow between Low pressure over the Europe and High pressure to the NW of the UK will slacken slowly over the next few days with the weakening troughs over Central and Southern England clearing very slowly away South tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the NW at first and the SE later. Occasionally warm. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to remain very slack over our part of the Northern hemisphere over the next week or so as the pattern of Low pressure over Europe and High pressure to the North continues for a while longer. Then through the second week a slow but subtle change in both strength and flow pattern develops as it moves into a more traditional West to East or SW to NE direction over or just to the South of the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows slow changes over the two week period most of these in the second week as Week 1 continues to see some showery outbreaks of rain moving in from the East as pressure remains lower over Europe. A lot of dry and warm weather is expected in between though and with light winds it could feel arm and humid. In the second week pressure rises over Europe and a more traditional pattern gradually develops. This does mean that for the UK cloud and rain will spill in off the Atlantic at times in association with Low pressure up to the North and NW of the UK with the driest and warmest weather returning to more Southern and Eastern areas where any rainfall becomes much less common. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows similar conditions to the Operational Run in Week 1 but in Week 2 shows an alternative path to more normal pressure patterns with the Azores High slowly coming into play as it ridges either North through the Atlantic or better still NE towards the UK at least for a time. This doesn't translate to fine weather for too long on this run though as cool and showery Low pressure near NE Britain towards the end of the run would ensure cool and bright weather with showers in the North and East the most likely weather type to close the period. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The main theme of the GFS Clusters at 14 days this morning reflects a confident path towards the Northern blocking High pressure finally having given way to lower pressure their by then and with High pressure down to the SW winds from a West or NW direction has a lot of support with some rain at times, chiefly but not exclusively over the North and West with the best conditions probably most likely in the South and SW. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows slack pressure being maintained over the UK for the rest of the week and weekend and with somewhat warmer air beginning to develop under brighter skies later plus instability aloft some thundery showers look possible at the weekend in the South. Then as we move into next week we have to watch for Low pressure to edge in from the SW more organised thundery rain looks set to move slowly NE across the South and West over Monday.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain the pattern of slack pressure conditions developing over the UK in the next few days as the Low pressure over Europe fills up. Some old troughs ambling around still bring the risk of some showers, perhaps thundery at the weekend but with a lot of dry, eventually bright and warm weather too as we approach the start of next week http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows very slow changes over the next 10 days but it is extremely slow progress. The weather will change even more slowly under this patterning with a lot of dry and fine weather under rather warm and humid weather for much of the time. Low pressure to the SW is shown equally slow to move in breaking up into another thundery zone lying to the South and west of the UK late in the run with pressure still quite high to the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a High pressure ridge edging South over the UK at the weekend slowly displacing the slack pressure zone across the UK currently. Things then warm up next week especially in the South with Low pressure inching North over the eastern Atlantic bringing warm winds up from the South with any rain or thundery showers only affecting the far West or NW by this time next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows the Low pressure over Europe finally weakening towards the weekend with extremely slack conditions likely across the UK for several days and with brighter and warmer conditions sparking off some thundery showers in the South at the weekend. Then it's all about the progress of showery Low pressure in the Atlantic and how much and what speed it feeds more unsettled conditions into the UK from the SW towards midweek, ending the week near or over the UK with cooler and showery weather for all by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night follows this morning's operational run with Atlantic Low pressure having filtered into the UK from the West and SW over previous days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems to be a slow change gaining more support between the models over recent days towards pressure rising over Europe and falling to the West and NW with winds finally veering towards a warm Southerly next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.4 pts with UKMO at 99.3 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.0 pts to UKMO's 95.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 84.2 pts and GFS at 82.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 52.3 pts to 46.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 31.5 pts to 29.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There is currently a lot of contrast from place to place across the UK and this will continue over the next few days as all models support only slow changes in the next 3-4 days. These changes revolve around the release of Low pressure from Europe towards High pressure later next week. This process begins as High pressure also begins to build down from the North at the weekend with several days of fine and increasingly warm conditions as the cool NE flow is lost to warmer winds from the SE or South. Then next week with higher pressure over Europe and Low pressure drifting slowly North or NE towards the west of the UK it could become very warm and humid in places and as that low to the west pushes troughs towards us from the SW it could feed some thundery rain and storms up from the SW at some stage by midweek. The pattern thereafter appears quite mixed too between the output but using the GFS Clusters as an example it would appear that we could well slip into a more traditional pattern of Low pressure to the NW and Higher pressure to the SE with SW winds bringing rain at times to the North and West while the South and East see the best of prolonged dry and warm periods between intermittent rain. This theme is not a done deal yet though and there is still some stubborn resistance from some runs that keep pressure quite High north of the UK which as ECM shows keeps the Low pressure coming in from the SW next week closer into the UK and keeps showery conditions going for all. However, in my opinion the charts could look an awful lot worse with all areas seeing some good weather over the next few weeks when it will also be reasonably warm. All areas will likely see at least some showery rainfall over the next few weeks too perhaps most likely across the South to begin with and then the North later..all good seasonal growing weather which will keep the lawnmowers among other gardening tools and related tasks necessary. Next Update Thursday Jun 2nd 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 31ST 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure over the near continent will push troughs West across England and Wales today and tonight with High pressure remaining centred to the NW of the British Isles with a chilly Northerly breeze in places. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the NW at first and the SE later. Occasionally warm. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to remain very slack over our part of the Northern hemisphere over the next week as the pattern of Low pressure over Europe and High pressure to the North continues. Then through the second week a steady increase in strength of the flow and patterning of the Jet stream develops with a West to east flow developing either across Southern Britain or to the South late in the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows two quite separate weeks in terms of weather with the first week maintaining a theme of Low pressure to the SE and High to the North with an East or NE flow across the UK slowly weakening over next weekend as pressure across the UK becomes even North to South. Then after a period of quiet and settled weather unsettled weather spreads up from the SW across most areas with rain or showers at times and temperatures and winds returning to June averages later as Low pressure lies close by over or to the North of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run looks at odds with the Operational in the second week in as much as it prefers to keep High pressure to the North of the UK then with further thundery showers at times easing up from Europe or the Southwest in generally light winds, humid and warm conditions for many. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today shows a lot of Low pressure weather patterns likely across the UK in two weeks time. The main thrust of this Low pressure shows a centre close to the North with an unstable Westerly or slack flow across the UK. Other scenearios indicate Low pressure in other locations close to the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows slack Low pressure to the SE and High pressure towards the North of the UK. Further Low pressure lies across the Atlantic to the WSW of the UK by the end of the week with a very slack airflow expected to be maintained across the UK with thundery showers or rain at times across the South and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain the pattern of High pressure to the NW and Low pressure over continental Europe over the next 5 days with troughs of Low pressure crossing England and Wales from the East becoming weaker and slow moving late in the week near Southern England http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a slow reversion back towards a more normal pressure pattern across the UK next week with Low pressure moving up to the NW of the UK and fronts taking a more traditional route NE across the UK by then. In the meantime the status-quo of present persists with Low pressure over Europe sending the risk of thundery rain at times across Southern areas before the South and East become warm for a time before the troughs to the North and West take over later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a slow change towards less in the way of continental Low pressure and swaps it for slack pressure patterns next week with a small pressure gradient across the UK by this time next week. Any rain and thundery showers looks like slowly becoming more restricted towards the far west and NW later as the South and East in-particular becomes warm or possibly very warm. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows another week or so of either NE winds or slack pressure meaning light winds across the UK as the theme of lower pressure to the SE and higher pressure to the NW is maintained. Then as we move through next week a change in the pressure pattern is accomplished as Atlantic Low pressure is finally able to make it's way up to the NW of the UK and spread more traditional spells of wind and rain North and East across the UK by the end of next week with the driest and warmest weather then likely towards the SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night is not a million miles away from that of this morning's operational 10 day chart as Low pressure is shown to be edging into the West of the UK from the Atlantic with winds swinging South with rain or showers at times especially towards Western Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems to be a slow pattern towards a change in the pattern across the UK, probably next week as High pressure to the NW finally begins to give some ground to the Atlantic Low pressure. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.4 pts with UKMO at 99.3 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.0 pts to UKMO's 95.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 84.5 pts and GFS at 82.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 52.2 pts to 46.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 31.4 pts to 30.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The UK is still locked in this theme of High pressure anchored to the North of the UK and lower pressure over continental Europe. North or NE winds continue to bring the risk of cloud and rain, sometimes thundery in from Europe across the South and East of the UK. Through the remainder of this week it appears that the pressure gradient weakens across the UK by the weekend with slack pressure bringing some thundery showers still especially over the South but quite warm and bright weather as well. Then as we move into next week there seems a growing desire to bring a more traditional pattern across the UK as pressure to the NW falls a little and sufficiently enough to allow Atlantic Low pressure to make it's way slowly NE towards NW Britain finally allowing winds to veer more towards a warm South or SW flow with the emphasis of rain or showers slowly reverting towards the North and West with some warm or very warm weather in the SE. I must stress that this is still not a done deal and there are still some big differences between some of the output on the events of the second week, many of which maintain a lot of Northern High latitude blocking which could in theory result in conditions not dissimilar to those of present and I think it will be well into the second half of this week before the models show any sort of cross model agreement on events beyond next weekend. So in the meantime for many the weather is not too bad with just local nuances revolving around pockets of heavy and thundery rain revolving around Southern Britain and this will continue as long as pressure remains Low over Europe. The NW remains the place to be for the warmest and sunniest conditions for some time yet before we may see the SE claiming that honour next week if the above sequence of events takes place. Next Update Wednesday Jun 1st 2016 from 09:00

Anybody in Wells Shepton Mallet areas must be experiencing flash flooding I would think as a storm seems to have been over them for an age. Somebody earlier said Wales was the sweet spot today. I would say the other Somerset 'Wells' has proved good too.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY MAY 27TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION The basic story of High pressure to the North of the UK and Low pressure to the South looks like remaining for the next couple of days at least with slack and unstable winds from the East affecting the South in particular. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to remain very slack over our part of the Northern hemisphere over the next week as Low pressure remains to the South of the UK and High pressure to the North. However, this morning there is a theme of moving the Jet Stream North and strengthening it in the second week as Low pressure finally repositions itself to the NW with higher pressure over Europe by then. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure maintained to the North of the UK over the next week or so with Low pressure over or to the South of the UK continuing to promote the best conditions for the North of the UK while thundery rain or showers affect the South at times. Then through the second week Low pressure builds North over the Atlantic and eventually allowing pressure to rise to the South and SE with winds swinging more to a SW or West direction with rain at times returning to the NW while the South and East slowly become largely dry with more intermittent rain while temperatures stay well up to normal or somewhat above in places. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run disagrees with the Operational Run in the second week as it shows High pressure being maintained to the North of the UK with Low pressure to the South maintaining a largely Easterly feed across the UK with thundery showers at times edging up into Southern Britain at times even out to the end of the run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today shows no dominating weather pattern likely to be present in two weeks time with most members showing very slack conditions across the UK with the risk of showers for some but no really unpleasant weather likely. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure to the SE and High pressure strengthening further to the NW at the start of next week continuing to promote winds from a NE quarter, quite strong with time and continuing to bring the risk of some rain at times towards the SE and although some warm air around some cool weather too under any persistent cloud and rain and more generally near the East coast. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts main message this morning revolves around how much progress is expected into the UK from the East of Low pressure developing over the Low Countries on bank Holiday Monday. The current thinking is that the second half of Monday could be very wet in the East with a lot of uncertainty on how far West that travels before Monday's end. By Tuesday showers or rain looks very likely overall of England and Wales as the Low pressure is shown to make landfall over the SE. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM this morning shows the easterly flow lasting throughout next week before just weakening a little at the end of the run as the UK then falls under very slack pressure. In the meantime the easterly flow maintains the risk of rain and showers at times across the South, thundery in places while the North sees largely dry and bright weather though even here these areas are not immune to a shower. The end of the run shows fairly benign weather over the UK with fewer showers in general. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a sustained period of east or NE winds between High pressure to the North of the UK and Low pressure to the South and SE with thundery showers at times especially over the South while the best weather remains likely in the far NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is maintaining the pattern of High pressure to the North and Low pressure to the South through much of next week with thundery rain or showers at times in the South and East while the best weather remains to the NW. Then towards the end of the run this morning High pressure to the North slips SE to the East of the UK with Low pressure then lying across the Atlantic veering winds to a warm SE flow with the risk of showers restricted then to the far West and SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night continues to show a lot of slack pressure over and around the British Isles with the risk of showers remaining in light winds and reasonable temperatures overall. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains no strong desire for the models as a whole to remove Northern blocking High pressure over the next few weeks at least with just a shuffling around of pressure systems in an overall benign an quiet weather pattern. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.3 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 95.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.6 pts to UKMO at 86.3 pts and GFS at 84.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 57.3 pts to 51.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 35.6 pts to 34.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Changes from the models again today remain quite small and focused at the least reliable end of the output runs. In the meantime a continuation of quite benign weather patterns remain although a quite nasty area of Low pressure close to SE Britain early next week could result in some very wet weather for a time. Outside of that the weather will often be bright and warm with some thundery showers at times across the South. Throughout much of the period the best weather will often be over the far NW of Britain while some cool sea mist and haar may affect the East coasts at times but on balance the weather will feel quite warm and humid. Then looking for signs of change longer term there is still some hints of a shift towards lower pressure moving further North over the Atlantic with pressure rising towards the East and maybe SE late in the period. Should that occur a slow shift of emphasis of any showers will move towards the far West while the East and SE see the driest, warmest and brightest weather by then. However, all this is embryonic at the moment as well as being well outside the reliable time frames so let's see how things develop i the coming days to see if there is a growing trend for change as we move deeper into June. I won't be near a PC over the long weekend so there will be no report from me now until Tuesday so enjoy the warmth over the weekend and let's hope that inclement Low to the SE doesn't spoil the party for many on Bank Holiday Monday. Next Update Tuesday May 31st 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAY 26TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening trough lies East to West across northern Britain moving slowly North and weakening further through the day. A slack airflow lies across Southern Britain with instability developing from the South over the next day or so as warmer continental air filters NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to remain South of the UK for much of the next few weeks. It currently is blowing east across Southern Europe in association with lower pressure down there while higher pressure to the North keeps the northern arm well away to the North, also weak. It's not until the final days of the next few weeks that the flow looks like it could move back North towards the UK as pressure finally falls somewhat to the North. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure maintained to the North of the UK over the next 10 days or so with Low pressure to the South and SE edging up across Southern Britain early next week enhancing a thundery shower risk even more after these become prevalent at times over the weekend. Then through the second week the UK wide Easterly flow veers more Southerly as High pressure slips SE down over Northern and Eastern Britain with Low pressure over the Atlantic edging North with any rain from this restricted to the far West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows very similar synoptics over the first 10 days with easterly winds and a lot of dry weather for the North while the South lies at risk of thundery showers at times as Low pressure remains close enough by to the South of the UK, Unlike the Operational Run the High pressure at the end of the run remains to the North with Low pressure edging across the UK albeit rather slack with showers or rain at times for many areas then. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today continues to show quite a mixed pattern with the bias today on higher pressure attracting a 40% cluster lying somewhere near the UK. However, this allows 60% to show a mix of options ranging from UK based Low pressure (10%) to the rest indicating an Atlantic flow from Low pressure further away to the NW. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows unsettled weather taking us out of the Bank Holiday weekend as Low pressure from Europe drifts West across Southern Britain with rain, heavy at times in the South. With High pressure near Iceland the North would stay drier and brighter and probably warmer than elsewhere. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the same theme of the Operational data with the main theme of instability under slack and showery conditions across the South at the weekend with the main talking point next week being the migration west from Europe of Low pressure into the South with cool and unsettled weather likely. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM this morning shows the easterly flow between High pressure to the North of the UK and Low pressure to the South and SE remaining the dominant weather pattern for the next 10 days. On this run the early week Low pressure moving into Southern Britain shown by other output stays to the South of the UK so the spread of general rain looks more limited so a lot of dry weather in the North over the next 10 days but a continued risk of thundery showers occurring over Southern Britain in relatively warm and humid weather. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a sustained period of east or NE winds between High pressure to the North of the UK and Low pressure to the South and SE with thundery showers at times especially over the South while the best weather remains likely in the far NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is maintaining the pattern of High pressure to the North and Low pressure to the South and SE again this morning with the North seeing the brightest and warmest conditions especially towards the Highlands of Scotland. Elsewhere the risk of heavy showers and thunder at times remains a strong possibility as winds remain from an Easterly point with Low pressure near the South feeding instability up into the South of the UK at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night continues to show a lot of slack pressure over and around the British Isles with the risk of showers remaining in light winds and reasonable temperatures overall. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains no strong desire for the models as a whole to remove Northern blocking High pressure over the next few weeks at least, leading to an East or NE flow being maintained with thundery showers in the South to remain the main theme between the models for some considerable time. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 86.3 pts and GFS at 85.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.4 pts to 52.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 37.3 pts to 33.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Not much to be said about the models this morning that hasn't been said already in reports from previous days. The main theme is the continuation of High pressure slow moving to the North of the UK while our continental friends continue to import to the South some thundery showers at times, some days more than others. Temperatures will be well up to average or above and it will feel rather humid at times in the South. However, as always in an easterly flow North Sea Coasts will see a lot of cool and sometimes cloudy, misty weather in onshore winds while Western Scotland over the two weeks could see very little rain and maybe some of the highest temperatures in the glens. It should also be mentioned that in the early days of next week a more coherent spell of rain and cool conditions could spill west across Southern and eastern parts before the pattern resets to the North/South split in conditions again later in the week with more dry weather in the North and showers in the South. There are small hints only of a drift towards a more normal SW flow developing late in the period but hint is at far as it looks this morning so overall we have to look forward to a protracted period of warm East winds with humid air especially in the South looking likely to persist for some considerable time with the NW always looking the best place to be for guaranteed dryness and it's not often that can be said in the UK. Next Update Friday May 27th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 25TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies to the North of the UK with a frontal trough moving West over Central areas later today while the NE flow to the South of it fall slack and more variable tomorrow as more humid air advances from the South across Southern Britain.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to feature largely to the South of the UK over the next few weeks although it's strength is for the most part very weak and it maybe that the placement of it is not overall very influential in fast moving weather changes with a lot of quiet and benign weather patterns near the UK especially later in the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of slack pressure conditions likely over and around the UK over the next few weeks. Putting some meat on the bones shows Low pressure edging up from the South through the Bank Holiday weekend with some warm, humid and showery air gradually displaced by rising pressure next week from the South with some dry and warm weather next week especially over the South. Then in the second week the theme is for High pressure to build strongly to the North and NE with Low pressure to the SW setting up a warm and dry ESE flow with any thundery showers restricted to the extreme SW with dry, warm and sunny conditions elsewhere. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows a very similar sequence of events with High pressure gradually building North across the UK next week as the thundery Low to the SE at the end of the Bank Holiday Weekend moves North away from the UK and weakens. Then after a theme of dry and relatively warm weather for a while this run shows a return of slack Low pressure areas moving into the UK with more showers at times towards the latter days of the period. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today continues to show quite a mixed pattern with the bias today on lower pressure over higher pressure more likely than not to be influential at the 14 day point. What is less clear is it's position in relation to the UK and where and if how much affect in the way of cloud and rain it would bring. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a slack Easterly flow across the Bank Holiday weekend with some thundery showers possible at times in the South. Then over the first few days of next week a deep Low to the SE brushes the East and SE of the UK with the risk of more persistent rain and a cool NE wind while showers continue elsewhere under the slack pressure gradients still present over the North and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure to the North over the next 5 days with the theme of the raw data mirrored by the fax Charts this morning as pressure is biased lower to the South and East and higher to the NW. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM this morning shows a continued theme of High pressure to the North and Low pressure to the South throughout it's run this morning with the Low pressure to the South edging up into Britain later with showers and thunderstorms a common risk across the South with a lot of dry and fine weather across the North where it will be warm at times in the sheltered West and out of the Light east flow coming into Eastern coasts. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows showery Low pressure to the South and then SE giving the risk of showers over the weekend over Southern Britain. Things then dry up for all as the Low pressure moves away NE over Europe and pressure builds across the UK with fine and sunny weather developing for the midweek period next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is maintaining the pattern of High pressure to the North strengthening next week with Low pressure to the South throughout. Although overall a lot of dry and fine weather is likely especially over the North and NW the lower pressure to the South and SE at times continues to promote a strong risk of showers at times, heavy in places but even here some dry and fine, warm conditions look likely with the showers dying down somewhat towards the end of the run as High pressure ridges down from the North although this could be accompanied by a cooler and fresher feel by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night has changed little in theme over recent days with the UK seemingly lying in nomansland pressure wise with showers possible in a lot of overall dry and bright conditions as no one pressure area high or low has overall control of the UK weather at day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains no strong desire for the models as a whole to remove Northern blocking High pressure over the next few weeks at least, leading to an East or NE flow being maintained with thundery showers in the South to remain the main theme between the models for some considerable time. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 86.6 pts and GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.2 pts to 52.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 38.0 pts to 33.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS As I explained in detail yesterday and is mirrored again by this morning's output changes are slow and subtle across the UK over the next few weeks. High pressure remains locked well north of the UK with the UK lying in a position too far away for it to have overall control of our weather as Low pressure over nearby Europe continues to push some influence towards at least the Southern half of England and wales over the coming week. This means the North would see the best conditions away from the North sea coast with sunshine most prominent in the west of Scotland. Further South cloud will be more evident but under some warm and humid air imported from the South conditions will feel quite pleasant in the ample dry weather present but this could be punctuated by thundery showers at times too, more likely on some days than others. Then as we look into the second week there is some encouragement from some output that High pressure ridges across the UK removing the shower risk from the South with many areas seeing a dry and fine spell. However, there seems little indication from the output of any meaningful sense of a pattern reset away from High latitude blocking so any changes are likely to result in more Low pressure to the South or SW rather than North or NW so a similar scenario of weather to that expected in the coming days could be replicated. This is a long way off though and it's important to say that there is no dramatic weather conditions expected over the next few weeks and for many a lot of the time could end up very pleasant so let's enjoy this late Spring pattern conditions that will continue to promote a strong growing season over the next few weeks. Next Update Thursday May 26th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 24TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies to the North of the UK with a chilly NNE flow over the east of the UK and a less fresh flow further west. A trough of low pressure will move west from Europe into Eastern and some Northern areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to feature largely to the South of the UK over the next few weeks. It features in a cyclonic form around Low pressure to the South and SW later this week and over the Bank Holiday weekend this easing out only slowly through the second week as High pressure re-develops to the North and then West of the UK sending a flow South over NW Europe on it's Eastern flank at the end of the period http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure forming to the South and SW of the UK and High pressure to the North becoming the driving forces within the UK weather over the coming weeks. The situation develops over the next few days as an Easterly flow develops with some reasonably warm conditions but with an increasing risk of thundery showers first in the South from the end of the working week. Low pressure from Europe then becomes the driving force as it moves up into the South of the UK for a time before High pressure rebuilds to the NW and pushes the low pressure areas in the South away East and SE leading the UK falling under a cool Northerly flow by the end of the period with the best conditions then likely to be in the West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows a very similar sequence of events with some day to day differences between this run and the Operational only making marginal differences at the surface maintaining a largely showery theme across the South with quite warm conditions for a while before the same shift of High pressure out into the Atlantic late in the period opens the door to the North for cool and showery weather to affect the UK as we move deeper into June. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today continues to show quite a muddly pattern with the bias looking like High pressure lying to the West or SW with a NW flow across the UK with varying degrees of influence of Low pressure towards the North and NW. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the North and NW the best place to be over the coming 5 days or so as High pressure lies close by to the North. Here there will be a lot of dry and fine weather. The further South one travels would see the risk of thundery showers increase with the weather slowly turning cooler later in the weekend as the North and NE wind increases across the South and East as the pressure gradient increases across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure to the North over the next 5 days with troughs of Low pressure straddling the UK over the weekend, all rather weak but significant enough to promote some showers to develop across the South, some thundery in increasingly warm and humid air. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM this morning shows High pressure to the North and lower pressure to the South throughout it's 10 day forecast period with the main theme being North and NW being best for sunshine and dry weather while Southern areas see a risk of thundery showers at times in occasionally warm and humid conditions. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps High pressure to the North too with the same risk of thundery showers in the South lasting up to the middle of next week when the showers could ease due to High pressure edging closer up to the South as well. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is maintaining the pattern of High pressure to the North strengthening next week with Low pressure to the South throughout. With that High pressure to the North strengthening the pressure gradient over the South is shown to increase next week making the rather warm and humid air across the UK at the weekend feel rather fresher but never removing the risk of thundery showers edging up from Europe at times right out to the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows the UK still in very slack conditions at Day 10 as High pressure to the South and North are dissected by Low pressure over Southern Europe and well out in mid Atlantic. The most likely result would be a lot of dry and bright weather with a few showers particularly towards the South and SE.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains no strong desire for the models as a whole to remove Northern blocking High pressure over the next few weeks at least, leading to an East or NE flow being maintained with thundery showers in the South to remain the main theme between the models. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.5 pts to 52.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 38.3 pts to 34.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The main patterning that's shown between the models this morning is not an uncommon one for this time of year when parts of Scotland and the NW of the UK can often see the best conditions of their year with some good sunny spells and warm conditions prominent. For this to occur we need High pressure to the North and NW with Low pressure to the South of the UK and that's exactly what will be developing over the coming days, a pattern that once formed may prove to hang around for most if not all of the forecast period covered by the output this morning. So from that changes in the overall patterning will be slow but day to day differences in the weather will be small scale but significant. Firstly I would guess that Eastern coasts adjacent to the North Sea will be subject to cloudy and cool conditions as our old friend 'North Sea Haar' is brought in on a NE breeze. Secondly the warm and humid air drifting over Southern Britain from the continent will promote some heavy and thundery showers at times. These look like ebbing and flowing over the period with the main threat looking to come from an increasing and cooler NE flow next week as the High pressure to the NW of the UK looks like it could strengthen more with showers across the South and East in particular. However, that is just a possibility at this range and there will be plenty of warm and dry weather in the South too over the long weekend with just the risk of thundery showers rather than wall to wall rainfall. So as I've already indicated for the UK it looks like this patterning could be a protracted one with long term changes seeming very slow due to a weak Jet stream and pressure remaining very high towards the Arctic. So with little or no rain in the far NW to some heavy showers elsewhere it may well be that rainfall becomes well below average in the North over the next few weeks with some places in the South too seeing very little if you manage to avoid the scattered downpours. Temperatures should hold up well especially in the West and NW while cooler air could affect the SE later and the North Sea coast looks particularly prone to coolness with onshore winds. Nevertheless I have seen far worse charts for the beginning of June so my advice is enjoy the warmth and sunshine where you can. More from me tomorrow. Next Update Wednesday May 25th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY MAY 23RD 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure is building to the North of the UK with the slack Northerly showery flow gradually weakening as it veers NE over the next few days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to feature largely to the South of the UK over the next few weeks. It features in a cyclonic form around Low pressure to the SW later this week this easing out only slowly as a period of slack and poorly defined period of flow seems likely in a week or so and through the second week although what flow there is seems to remain biased to be at a point South of the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure forming to the South and SW of the UK and High pressure to the North becoming the driving forces within the UK weather over the coming weeks. The situation develops over the next few days as an easterly flow develops with some reasonably warm conditions especially towards the West but with an increased risk later of thundery showers moving up from the South eventually affecting many areas from the start of next week with only slow changes in the overall patterning then through the second week involving more showers at times but with some dry and bright and potentially warm conditions for many at times as well. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows a similar pattern to the synoptics over the first week while the second week leans an influence towards warm and sunny conditions developing with the risk of the occasional thundery shower as High pressure looks more resilient in this run although some insertions of shallow Low pressure looks possible too. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today continues to show some variations in expected conditions across the UK in two weeks ranging from slack pressure with showers to dry and fine weather under High pressure. There is nothing too dramatic shown though within the clustering for the UK so quite average benign conditions would be the most likely patterning. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the theme of an ENE flow for a time this week before the winds fall light as the pressure pattern slackens always with the risk of some potentially thundery showers at times probably most focused towards the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure to the North with an Easterly flow developing across the UK. A lot of dry weather for many for a time but later in the week troughs from both the East and South threaten parts of the UK with showers by the end of the week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM shows a week or so of easterly winds with the increasing risk of showers by the weekend before High pressure slowly builds NE into the UK over the Bank Holiday weekend and next week with showers dissolving and conditions becoming sunny and warm for many. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps slack Low pressure conditions across the UK from later this week, through the weekend and out to the end of the run with a continued risk of showers, some heavy especially in the South but with some warm, dry and bright weather for many too at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is not the best of the group this morning if it's fine and settled weather your after as persistent High pressure North of the UK keeps Low pressure albeit weak and slack near to the South with thundery showers at times right out to Day 10 from this morning's run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows the UK in almost 'col' conditions between two Low pressure areas East and West and High pressure areas North and South. This often means quite quiet and benign conditions with some warm sunshine mixed with occasional showers. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today seem to lean towards slack pressure being maintained for the foreseeable future meaning light winds and a sunshine and shower mix of weather across the UK with day to day variances hard to predict. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 87.0 pts and GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.6 pts to 51.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 38.2 pts to 35.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS A few days off from the models and I was hoping that changes towards High pressure based weather with UK wide warm and sunny conditions would greet me this morning but with the odd exception or two I see that is not the case and in fact changes since I last reported on Friday are minimalist in a picture of very slack conditions across the UK with fine and humid weather mixed with the risk of potentially thundery showers at times. The main focus of the weather appears to be High pressure positioned to the North of the UK keeping our risk of warm humid and continental style conditions moving up across at least the South of the UK later this week and looking reluctant to move away thereafter. This means of course an Easterly flow across the UK so west will be best for warmth while Eastern coasts look occasionally cool and cloudy at times with winds off the North Sea. Thundery showers will focus on the South at first but could occur elsewhere too with time. In these slack pressure patterns many areas end up with conditions set fair or better with little in the way of significant rain whereas localities could see some very heavy downpours at times and the devil will be in the detail day to day over the coming weeks. Temperatures shouldn't be a concern and it could feel warm and humid at times away from that East coast. Then if I had to make a judgement on where we go longer term I would favour a slow build of pressure, hopefully from the SW which would be the best direction to bring our best shot at warm and sunny weather and I feel there is a chance of that happening as we enter deeper into June. Next Update Tuesday May 24th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY MAY 20TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will move East across the UK at times today and over the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. Near or above average temperatures. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to buckle South again over the weekend as Low pressure edges in from the East Atlantic to the UK. The flow remains further South than is normal for the time of year, blowing in a NE'ly direction across the near Continent for much of next week. In the second week the flow becomes weak and ill defined. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The main theme of the GFS Operational Run this morning is for a generally changeable period to come under Low pressure through the first week or so. Low pressure over or near the UK this weekend is replaced by higher pressure moving North to the North of the UK next week at the same time as Low pressure transfers SW of the UK with thundery showers feeding North later next week before in the second phase of the run fine and settled conditions are shown developing first in the South then to all areas to end the run.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows a similar pattern to the synoptics over the next few weeks but small differences in pressure distribution and the nature of air could result in different weather events place to place and day to day. For example next weeks Low pressure from the SW is more muted on this run in a similar way that the higher pressure in the second week is too with the risk of showery rain in light winds the main theme of the two weeks. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today looks very slack pressure based with the bias towards higher pressure rather than low influential to the UK with a fair amount of dry and benign weather conditions as a whole across the UK in 14 days. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning maintains it's theme of better weather for a time early next week as High pressure transfers North of the UK with shallow Low pressure moving up from the SW introducing the risk of thundery showers to at least Southern Britain later next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs bringing rain slowly East through the UK at the weekend followed by a rise in pressure from the SW gradually positioning itself as a High pressure area to the NW of the UK towards the middle of next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM shows a 10 day period when slack pressure across the UK is likely. This makes forecasting very difficult to predict day to day as there will always be a risk of showers or outbreaks of sometimes thundery rain mixed with some fine warm spells for almost all the UK especially early next week and again towards the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a much more coherent fall of pressure to the SW of the UK next week resulting in a stronger ESE flow with thundery showers edging into at least Southern Britain with the North seeing the best of the drier and warmer weather that will be around as well. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is very supportive of the Low pressure to the SW next week becoming absorbed by slack pressure across NW Europe in general with plenty of heavy and thundery showers likely almost anywhere in light winds and plenty of dry, bright and probably humid and warm weather as well. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows slack pressure gradients across the UK in relatively unstable air supporting thundery showers and outbreaks of rain mixed with warm and bright spells in between.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today seem to lean towards slack pressure meaning light winds and a sunshine and shower mix of weather across the UK with day to day variances hard to predict. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.8 pts to UKMO at 87.4 pts and GFS at 84.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.7 pts to 50.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 38.1 pts to 32.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models today continue to looks very undecided on events beyond the early days of next week. It all seems to hinge on how much extent of Low pressure to the SW of the UK then influences conditions across the UK and where pressure patterns beyond move. The problems are also complicated by a weak Jet Stream later next week and beyond with little guidance on where it will actually lie but my best shot this morning is that after a drier and warmer phase following an unsettled weekend it looks like an Easterly flow will develop with rain or thundery showers moving up from the South and as pressure then falls generally across the UK showers could become widespread and heavy at times but interspersed by comparably bright and sunny warm and probably humid conditions. That's about it really and speculation beyond that analysis seems futile with such slack synoptics likely later next week and onward. I am not able to produce a report now until Monday morning so to all my readers have a successful weekend at dodging the showers and hopefully I will return Monday morning looking at some summery synoptics. Next Update Monday May 23rd 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAY 19TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move away East today with a system of troughs moving bodily across the UK from the West later today and tonight clearing to a westerly flow tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. Near or above average temperatures. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to buckle South again over the weekend as Low pressure edges in from the East Atlantic to the UK. thereafter the flow sets up well South of the UK forming a deep trough over the eastern Atlantic, the UK and NW Europe with low pressure dominant close to the South of the UK frequently. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather as very changeable over the coming few weeks with Low pressure moving into the UK at the weekend and then persisting in close proximity to the South of the UK for some considerable time while pressure builds to the North of the UK. The pattern tries to reset late in the period with SW winds gradually becoming more established. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things very similar with an unsettled weekend leading into a brief dry and warm period early next week. then High pressure transfers well North of the UK with low pressure feeding up across Southern and Central areas with rain and showers for all especially over the South. Then at the end of the run the pattern remains quite mixed with showers still likely for many under rather slack pressure conditions and High pressure to the NW. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today looks very slack pressure based with the risk of showers and static conditions in 2 weeks time with winds from a North or NE direction with only a relatively small group of members deviating from this course. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows better weather early next week following an unsettled weekend. Then by midweek Low pressure to the SW and South and rising pressure to the North sets up an Easterly flow with relatively warm weather but with the increasing risk of showers across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs bringing rain slowly East through the UK at the weekend followed by a showery Westerly flow for a time before pressure shows signs of rising from the SW over the early days of next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM shows a short better spell of weather early next week with at least a showery weekend ahead of that for many and a wet one for some. The better weather then is lost to a strengthening easterly flow and falling pressure from the South as we move through next week with some rain and showers again especially in the South. Conditions slowly slacken thereafter with a more scattered array of showers in light winds and slack pressure gradients across the UK to end the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a changeable pattern of weather next week with some dry and bright weather mixed with spells of cloud and rain and on this run the North too is under threat of rain at times as much as the South with time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is as confused as the rest in specific detail in the weather for the next 10 days. The main theme seems to be that the UK Low complex at the weekend with it's showery weather will give way to higher pressure briefly early next week before this is sucked away North with falling pressure to the SW of the UK bringing muggy and humid air North across the UK with thundery rain and showers affecting the South at times and more widely later as the Low makes inroads into Southern Britain to end the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across Western Ireland affecting the UK with a Southerly biased wind bringing relatively warm and humid air and thundery showers at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today remain focused on higher pressure to the North of the UK and Low to the South and SW next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.8 pts to UKMO at 87.1 pts and GFS at 84.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.5 pts to 48.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 39.1 pts to 32.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models today remain as sketchy on detail as ever for the weather across the UK in the coming two weeks with uncertainty starting from as early as this weekend. What we have currently is a westerly flow across the Atlantic carrying troughs across the UK at times bringing a mix of rain or showers at times with some bright and dry weather in between. It now looks as though the gales for the weekend will thankfully not take place at least on a widespread scale with rain probably more the disruptive feature for these with outside plans such as me this weekend. This will take the form of heavy showers and some longer spells of rain in places, timings uncertain. Then as the Low pressure responsible fills and moves away East over the UK the weather looks like settling down for a day or two early next week as High pressure builds in from the SW. This doesn't hold though as Low pressure to the SW by midweek pushes High pressure to the North of the UK with an East or SE flow developing across all areas with some thundery risk moving up into southern Britain from most output and to many other areas too from some. The models then struggle with any guaranteed evolution beyond this point with conditions through the second week across the UK highly uncertain given the spreads between the models and runs within their own ensemble groups. So although conditions over the next week seem to be gathering a pattern between the models anything shown for any particular solution beyond a week's time need to be taken with a pinch of salt at the moment and with so much slack pressure looking likely across the Northern hemisphere over the coming weeks and a Jet stream seemingly well South almost anything is possible so stay tuned. Next Update Friday May 20th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 18TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Showery Low pressure will move across Southern England today clearing away East tonight with further fronts moving across from the West in a westerly flow tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain above all summits across the UK over the coming days basically in the range of 5000-8000ft. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will be focused on moving in a NE'ly direction either over Southern England or the near continent for much of the coming period as it responds to pressure being Low to the West and later SW of the UK with periods in between when the flow disrupts somewhat and becomes light and ill defined. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the weather as very changeable over the coming few weeks with a very showery and perhaps windy period at the weekend melting into somewhat better conditions through next week more especially towards the North as pressure rises. The South may see further showery spells of weather perhaps thundery in places before this transfers further North later with a warm and drier phase for the South although the theme of maintaining a theme of higher pressure towards the North remains at the close of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things rather differently this morning in the second week with High pressure more likely to lie towards a point to the South of the UK with the best conditions there with some warm sunshine at times whereas in the North conditions remain Atlantic governed with rain at times in SW winds. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today again looks High pressure biased for the period in 14 days time with a centre likely lying to the West and SW with fine and being conditions likely for many across the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning seems to be changing daily within it's outer limits of time. Today a very showery end to the weekend drifts into better conditions next week as High pressure builds from the SW by the early part of next week with dry and bright weather steadily extending to all areas by Tuesday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a concoction of troughs moving across the UK over the next 5 days with each one bringing an intensification of the showers or spells of rain all mixed in with some brighter and drier interludes too. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM shows conditions shaping up much like UKMO this morning up to Day 6 with better conditions developing under High pressure next week as it moves up from the SW. Then later next week Low pressure to the SW pushes the ridge away towards the North and east with the risk of thundery showers returning to the South and West. However, a ridge from the High looks as though it could attempt to maintain a lot of fine and dry weather for many areas right out to the second weekend with any showers restricted to the far West later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows a similar path as far as it goes out to this time next week with things improving under rising pressure early next week with showers dying out before potentially returning to the far South and SW later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is less keen on developing extensive High pressure next week instead preferring to keep rather slack pressure conditions across the UK with the highest pressure towards the North while slack Low pressure over and to the Southeast of the UK maintains the risk of heavy showers at times with temperatures close to or perhaps a but above the seasonal average at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across the Eastern Atlantic and higher pressure to the East while Southerly winds bring relatively warm and probably humid conditions with the risk of showery rain at times especially across the West and NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today show a slow path to rather better conditions under higher pressure to return as we move through next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.7 pts to UKMO at 86.7 pts and GFS at 84.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 59.3 pts to 48.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 40.3 pts to 33.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There is still a lot of indecision in the details of the pattern as we move out of this current very unsettled and sometimes wet period likely over the coming days and weekend. The risk of high winds at the weekend has subsided somewhat as the depth of Low pressure seems to be reduced somewhat with isobars further apart as a result. nevertheless all areas look at risk of heavy rain and showers at times between now and the start of next week. Then as the Low pressure areas move away to the NE pressure is shown to rise from the SW. This is shown by all models but in varying degrees of extent and significance for conditions across the UK for the rest of next week. The general theme should be for these better conditions to reach the SW on Monday extending to all areas by midweek but there are differences on opinion on how long and to what extent this fine weather lasts and in what areas. The main theme appears to be that the High pressure area drifts to the NE of the UK with low pressure developing down to the SW spreading a risk of showers back up into Southern and SW Britain later next week. Some output then shows this becoming the main driving force of the weather as this showery theme reaches more areas later. However, some output shows this High pressure lasting rather linger and to more areas with the GFS Clusters showing much support for High pressure influential across Britain by Day 14. However, having said all that the jury is still out on the details from say Tuesday of next week so expect more shifts in model output towards better or worse scenarios over the coming days. At least temperatures look like being respectable for most parts through the period so nothing too alarmist to report upon this morning for those farmers and growers in the next few weeks as the growing season accelerates in earnest. Next Update Thursday May 19th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 17TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will move East across the UK over the next 24 hours or so repeated again on the remaining days of the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK for the rest of the week will remain in the range of 5000-8000ft for the rest of the week as troughs cross East across the UK ebbing and flowing the level up and down. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The slack Jet flow currently will strengthen across the Atlantic and move towards Western Britain soon and then become established across Southern Britain and to the South as Low pressure lies close by. Then through the second week the pattern weakens and breaks up as High pressure develops to the North and the Jet stream becomes weak and ill defined on it's location. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the weather deteriorating over the UK in the coming days as Low pressure moves in from the West with showers and longer spells of rain coupled with strong winds at times lasting well into the weekend with temperatures near average. Winds will become strong too at the weekend before pressure rises to the SE and the rain and unsettled theme becomes more and more restricted to the NW. Then late in the period High pressure develops and settles to the NE of the UK and with lower pressure then to the South a warm or very warm and humid Easterly flow develops with thundery showers across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things rather differently this morning in the second week but with the same unsettled and later windy period at the weekend. Through the second week this run shows pressure becoming slack across the UK with some showers in places at times while there will be plenty of dry and relatively warm spells at times for all as well. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today look not too bad if it's fine weather your after in 14 days as there is a lot of High pressure shown near the UK at that time, albeit somewhat slack in nature. Only around 10% of model runs from GFS indicate Low pressure to the NW and rain at times this morning. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled spell developing for the UK for the rest of the week peaking on Saturday as rain at times culminates in a spell of wet and windy weather on Saturday with strong winds in places too. Then things start to improve from the SW on Sunday before Monday sees remaining unsettled weather across the North while dry and bright weather moves into more Southern areas from the SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs moving bodily East across the Uk for the rest of the week with rain at times for all, some heavy and accompanied by strong winds at the weekend especially across Northern and western Britain. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM too is for Low pressure to bring a change to Westerly winds and rain at times later today onward with some heavy rain at times for all coupled with strong winds for a time at the weekend. Then after the weekend warmer air moves North across the UK as pressure rises to the east backing winds towards the South. This means that warm and humid weather looks likely next week with Low pressure to the West and High pressure to the East with a few thundery showers at times in the West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows unsettled weather with rain at times from today with some strong Westerly winds at times especially at the weekend. Then as we move into the new week Low pressure edges away to the NE allowing higher pressure and better weather to slowly extend North and East across the UK in average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today also shows the unsettled period from today as Low pressure troughs and Low pressure move across the UK from the West. This unsettled period lasts through the weekend when some strong winds look likely especially on Saturday. Then as the run moves through next week it shows Low pressure anchoring down to the SW for a time before filling up and bringing some potentially thundery rain at times to the South with the driest weather switching towards the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across the Atlantic and higher pressure to the East while Southerly winds bring relatively warm and probably humid conditions with the risk of showery rain at times especially across the West and NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today continue to paint a more unsettled phase of weather to come before things probably become drier and warmer later especially in the SE. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.9 pts to UKMO at 86.9 pts and GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 60.5 pts to 48.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.4 pts to 34.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models today continue to bring much more unsettled conditions to the UK commencing over the next day or so. All areas can expect some rain, moving in from the West late today and continuing through the rest of the week and the weekend when winds could become a feature too for a time with Westerly gales in exposure. Temperatures will be close to average by day but much less cool than recently by night with the risk of frost finally eliminated. Then after this unsettled phase and looking towards next week we should see slow improvements take place most likely from the South with any further rain restricted more and more towards the NW with the chance of some warm conditions in the SE at least. Low pressure always looks likely to remain either to the NW or SW of the UK so the Western extremities of the UK could see some further rain at times, perhaps thundery if Low pressure lies to the SW with warm weather extending to many parts of the UK should that become the case. So getting through the next 5-6 days of rain at times may well be the precursor to slow improvements towards warmer and more settled conditions especially over the East and SE and with winds largely blowing from a Southerly source temperatures never look likely to be a problem in the next few weeks. Next Update Wednesday May 18th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY MAY 16TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies just to the West of the British Isles but will decline tomorrow as winds back from a chilly NNW flow to a WSW flow tomorrow with a trough of Low pressure approaching the West late on Tuesday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise over the coming days as the chilly NNW flow weakens and backs towards the WSW through this week. From a level of around 3000ft at first it should rise to at least 5000-6000ft for several days. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The slack Jet flow currently will strengthen across the Atlantic and move towards Western Britain by Wednesday. It then continues blowing quite strongly for the time of year moving East then SW to NE towards and over next weekend. The flow then weakens through Week 2 and breaks up as higher pressure develops over and later to the North of the UK with a split flow then both North and well South of the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the current ridge of High pressure weakening and being replaced by a strengthening Westerly flow for the remainder of the week and next weekend with rain and showers spreading to all areas from the West. This unsettled phase peaks at the weekend when gales are possible in exposure before a transformation into High pressure develops through Week 2 with fine dry and warmer conditions developing for all while an easterly flow develops across the UK and with thundery Low pressure down to the South again some thundery showers could edge up into Southern Britain at times again by the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things rather differently this morning in the second week with the High pressure of early next week gradually declining away to the SE with a breakdown occurring from the Atlantic rather than the South like the Operational shows. So after the unsettled phase of this week a drier phase early next week when it becomes warmer is gradually replaced by rain at times especially towards the North and West later in the second week. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows no clear cut direction in what may be thrown at us at that time point with a lot of clusters indicating fairly slack conditions across the UK about equal in measure between slack Low and High pressure areas in proximity of the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled spell developing for the UK this week and lasting through next weekend too with brisk West or SW winds carrying bands of rain, heavy at times but with some brighter weather with heavy showers in between. Temperatures remain near average by day but will be much milder by night than currently. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the slack High pressure ridge across the UK currently subsiding away South and being replaced by WSW winds and a whole plethora of troughs moving East across the UK for the remainder of the week and into the weekend with showers or longer spells of rain at times for all. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM too is for Low pressure to bring a change to Westerly winds and rain at times towards midweek in association with low pressure close to NW Britain with further spells of rain and showers under a similar guise through next weekend before better weather develops early next week as pressure is shown to rise across the UK and then remains High over the North next week while the South sees the return of thundery rain later as Low pressure edges North towards SW England by the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM is not available this morning at time of issue of this report. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today also shows the unsettled spell starting late on Tuesday with periods of rain and showers across all areas for that period sometimes heavy and accompanied by fresh winds from a Westerly source. Then as we move through next week winds back SW as pressure rises to the SE and a NW/SE split in the weather looks possible with rain and showers continuing across the North and West while longer dry spells and more occasional rain is likely in the SE where it looks like it could become rather warm for a time at least. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across the Atlantic and a bias of High pressure just to the SE and east of the UK with a weak SW flow delivering some rain and showers at times, perhaps thundery in places as the South or SW flow indicated brings relatively warm and humid air up across the UK at times especially in the South and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today continue to paint a more unsettled phase of weather to come before things become more uncertain thereafter. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.7 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 83.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.2 pts to 49.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.0 pts to 36.5 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The weather is about to turn rather more unsettled across the UK as the chilly NW flow gives way to a stronger WSW flow from later tomorrow on with troughs of Low pressure delivering spells of rain and showers for the remainder of the week. The one good thing is that all risk of frost by night will be removed after tonight as wind and cloud cover serve to hold night temperatures up. By day temperatures will stay close to average and it will feel warm in any sunshine between the showers. Over the weekend it maybe that the peak of this unsettled phase of weather will occur with strong winds for some accompanying more rain and showers but from the start of next week on there are tentative signs of a change to somewhat or maybe entirely drier conditions with higher pressure building in the proximity of the UK with time, settling the weather down with warmer conditions in place too. The method in how this develops is still very uncertain and it may not be the start of a sustained fine and settled spell as various outputs push the High to the North with thundery Low pressure edging up from the South while other outputs hold High pressure closer to the SE with the NW seeing some more unsettled conditions moving in against the higher pressure from off the Atlantic. What I can say though is that it looks as though temperatures will be fairly comfortable over the period resulting in any sunny spells between the outbreaks of rain feeling rather warm and frosts at night will hopefully become a thing of the past for this season and while there is no sustained fine and warm weather shown to last long all in all conditions shown within this morning's output could be a lot worse and represents fairly standard late Spring conditions across the UK. Next Update Tuesday May 17th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY MAY 15TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies just to the West of the British Isles with a slack and slackening further Northerly flow across the UK http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain near 5000ft across the far east to above 6000ft in the extreme West with a slow rising of the level in the East over the next few days while the highest levels over the extreme West falling back somewhat towards midweek. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a dry start becoming changeable with rain at times. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The current slack flow in the Jet Stream will align West to East and strengthen markedly by midweek as it surges East across the Atlantic and Southern Britain by the end of the working week. After spending several days in this form it breaks up and becomes anticyclonic around the UK for a time in the second week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the current ridge of High pressure weakening over the coming days as Low pressure moves in from the West with rain for all by midweek. The period following that will keep the weather unsettled for all with rain and heavy showers at times on a Westerly breeze as Low pressure is maintained to the North and later NE. Eventually pressure rises with more settled conditions developing, first in the South and then all areas later as High pressure builds strongly to the North of the UK again late in the run with Low pressure from Spain to the Med bringing the risk of thundery showers up from the South in rather warm conditions in an Easterly flow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run follows a broadly similar path with the main difference being the less extensive spread of High pressure across the UK in the second week, instead restricting any improvements to the South and East albeit temporary before more Atlantic drives in towards the North soon after with no real change in pattern shown until the final day of the run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows us back to Low pressure domination over the UK in 14 days time with the exact patterning uncertain while only around 15% of members indicate a more High pressure based pattern with a centre close to the North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled spell developing for the UK this week starting from Tuesday as rain spreads East across the UK from the West later on Tuesday and is repeated again later in the week and extending into next weekend in association with low pressure centred to the North of Scotland. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the slack High pressure ridge across the UK currently subsiding away South over the coming days as winds back westerly by Tuesday. Troughs ganging up across the Atlantic make their way across the UK towards midweek with rain shown for all followed by spells of sunshine and showers in a Westerly flow with further troughs in the flow too bringing longer spells of rain too in very average temperatures for mid May. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM too is for Low pressure to bring a change to westerly winds and rain at times towards midweek with further spells of rain and showers under a similar guise through next weekend before better weather develops in response to a reversal of pressure patterns to one of High pressure to the North and Low pressure to the South brings an Easterly flow back to the UK by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM continues the well worn message printed above from the other models in that unsettled weather from the west returns to all parts of the UK by midweek culminating in quite a deep Low pressure across or near the UK over next weekend with rain and showers for all in average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today also shows the unsettled spell starting late on Tuesday with a period of 5-6 days of unsettled conditions with heavy showers and spells of rain in largely Westerly winds and near average temperatures. This run then shows a rapid change towards the middle part of the second week as High pressure builds rapidly from the South and settles just to the East with warmer and drier weather developing for many and probably lasting a while especially over the South and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from ECM shows a favouring of Low pressure lying across the Atlantic and High pressure to the South and SE of the UK with a bias towards changeable weather with the best conditions likely towards the South and East. However, there is some other options from the other members which are inclined to distort the overall patterning of the Mean chart today. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today continue to paint a more unsettled phase of weather to come before things become more uncertain thereafter. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.6 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.7 pts to 49.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.2 pts to 36.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Over the last few days the models have changed little in their interpretations of events likely across the UK in the next week. The further out in the outputs as usual the greater the differences and reliability become but moving forward from now it is fairly certain that after a few more days of fine and benign weather if rather cool at times it is likely to become unsettled from the West by midweek with rain followed by showers moving bodily East through the UK from the Atlantic. This theme is reinforced by further Low pressure later this week with next weekend too looking pretty poor for reliability of dry conditions with showers for many and probably still some longer spells of rain thrown in for good measure. The patterning becomes rather less well defined thereafter with some output bringing better weather up from the South and as happened in the most recent warm weather event some output shows this High pressure being sucked North to lie to the North of the UK while to the South pressure falls with a resultant warm Easterly flow developing again, this option shown by GFS and GEM. In the extended term taking us out to day 14 and using GFS Clusters at Day 14 as an indicator a lot of Low pressure is shown to be in control of the weather over the UK with just 15% of members showing any form of High pressure to the North while ECM at day 10 still likes the idea of High pressure closer to the South and East where the warmest weather would reside while the NW sees rain and showers in a SW flow. Given the rather poor verification stats shown above for GFS in the longer term of late I will side with the more likely option shown by ECM for day 10 meaning that after an unsettled period with rain at times for all pressure will build from the South in the second week with fine and warm conditions gradually spreading up from the South and East to more areas with time. So in the meantime lets enjoy the next few days of reasonable weather before things turn somewhat soggy for some for a week or so at least. Join me for another installment tomorrow to see if there is any change to the general theme. Next Update Monday May 16th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY MAY 13TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Cooler air is moving South across Northern Britain today and all areas by tomorrow with a ridge of High pressure edging in from the West over the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will fall everywhere over the next few days behind a weak cold front moving South across the UK. The level will lie at or around 3000ft over the far East over the weekend to around 6000ft over the extreme West. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a dry start becoming changeable with rain at times. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The strong Eastwards moving flow across the Mediterranean Sea is weakening and easing away east over the coming days with a weaker flow moving slow South across the UK. Renewed energy to the flow crosses the Atlantic towards the middle of next week approaching Southern Britain before being directed South for a time before crossing West to East across the UK for much of the second week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows dry and quiet conditions until around Tuesday and it will be cooler across all areas than of late. Then from Tuesday the model run shows quite unsettled conditions across the UK under Low pressure drifting in from the West and becoming complex and slow moving for a time before a build of pressure from the South in the second week sees all areas becoming dry, warm and sunny towards the end of the month as High pressure extends in a belt from the Azores to Northern Europe in the last frames of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run follows a broadly similar path with the added ingredient of deep Low pressure over next weekend with the chance of gales and heavy rain for many as a deep Low passes over from the West before the same pressure build shown above occurs on this run too but less extensive than the Operational Run affecting the South and East of the UK while the North and West under a weak SW flow continues to throw a risk of occasional rain to the North and West. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of slack pressure across the UK with all members having a common denominator of High pressure to the SW and/or NE with set fair conditions likely. Some members show this High pressure as less dominant with Low pressure delivering some rain at times. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a weak WNW flow early next week with dry and bright conditions to begin with. Then as we move through the week it will become unsettled for all with rain at times as Low pressure with Westerly winds shown to edge down from the North from Tuesday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the weak cold front completing it's journey through the UK bringing cooler and fresher air to all parts tomorrow. Then it's all about the ridge of High pressure following it collapsing away South early next week with Westerly winds and falling pressure ahead of a gang of troughs over the Atlantic pushing towards the UK by Tuesday and beyond. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM this morning is one of falling pressure next week following several days of fine and cooler weather under a weakening ridge pulling it's way South early next week. This opens the door to Low pressure drifting into the UK from the NW and setting up a belt of showery low pressure across the UK then well into the second week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM has a fine and cooler weekend for many with the theme of next weeks weather showing a slow deterioration into Westerly winds with rain at times extending to all areas with the worst of the rain and breeze to the North with drier conditions with less wind likely towards the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today also shows a dry and bright few days if cooler than of late lasting into the start of next week before the trend of the weather from Tuesday shows Low pressure regaining control from the North and the Atlantic with a cool and showery period of weather looking likely well before next weekend and continuing on through to the start of the second working week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Despite the Operational showing quite unsettled and relatively cool conditions likely in 10 days time the mean chart shows a relatively warm SW flow across the UK between Low pressure to the West and NW while the SE lies under a slacker SW flow with less rain and more warmth the further South and SE over the UK you live. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS As yesterday the main emphasis shown by the models continues to point towards a return to a westerly flow across the UK next week with a trend this morning leaning towards this becoming quite unsettled for all. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.4 pts to UKMO at 87.0pts and GFS at 83.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 62.8 pts to 51.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.7 pts to 37.8 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Instead of a lot of dry and fine warmer shown as hoped this morning it appears to me if that there is a growing desire within the models to bring back more unsettled conditions across all parts of the UK next week with an open ended answer to how long this continues or not in the period thereafter. As things stand at the moment today shows the last day of warm weather in the South as the weak cold front moving South currently clears the South Coast tomorrow with fresh but dry and bright weather affecting most through the weekend. then next week starts in the same vein but from Tuesday Low pressure looks like drifting down from the NW or North with some rain for all and following this further Low pressure seems destined to move in across the UK from the Atlantic maintaining the unsettled and relatively cool feel. GEM goes for a major storm system next weekend and for personal reasons I hope this does not occur as it could give heavy rain and gales for all if it moves in as shown. Outside of that model the main theme though is for unsettled weather more likely than fine weather lasting into the second week and although GFS does offer an olive branch of a reversion to warm and sunny weather under extensive High pressure towards the end of the month it really is to far out to call at the moment with some alternative less favourable conditions also shown within it's ensemble members. So the output today can best be summed up as offering changeable conditions with rain at times and near average temperatures with any repeat of this weeks warmth held at arms length on this morning's output. So lets hope the models offer something rather better over the upcoming days and I have something more positive to report in my next report on Sunday morning. Next Update Sunday May 15th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAY 12TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure near Southernmost England will be pushed away South by a freshening NNE wind and fresher air moving down from the North over the coming days as a ridge of High pressure moves in close to Western Britain at the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is currently near 8000ft but will fall markedly from the North in the coming days, this fall most prolific over the East where values nearer to 3500ft look likely by the weekend and nearer to 5000ft in the far West. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Less warm but becoming dry in the South with some rain too especially across the North and West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's flow which has been well South of the UK over the coming week or so will weaken and move away to the East across the Meditteranean Sea whereas the Northern arm remains weak and pushes a spore of energy South across the UK over the weekend. Then as we move through the rest of the forecast period the flow remains very variable with a split flow still looking likely with one arm to the North of the UK and one undulating to the South of the UK at times. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of quite benign conditions over the next few weeks. Most of the time through the period we are governed by a ridge of High pressure stretching up from the SW with a lot of NW winds across the UK with a lot of dry if rather cloudy weather and with chilly nights where skies clear but nearer to average temperatures by day. Through the second week there is a more generally unsettled period indicated especially in the South as Low pressure edges up from the South but by the end of the run conditions revert to fine weather again for many as High pressure ridges in from the West again. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run is relatively similar with just the fact of the High pressure ridge receding far enough away at times to allow more unsettled westerly winds through the second week with some rain possible for all. Some warm and settled conditions under High pressure close by looks as though it could develop late in the period across the South and East. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of High pressure around the UK in one shape or form with a lot of fine and settled weather likely across the UK with temperatures near or above average in light anticyclonic airflow patterns. A few members prefer to have more of an Atlantic cyclonic influence to the pattern under lower pressure to the NW although even on these members runs High pressure is shown quite close to the South and East. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a slack Northerly flow over the UK at the weekend with cooler than of late conditions and the odd shower scattered about on the eastern flank of a ridge of High pressure just to the west. Then next week it looks like winds back towards the West and with Low pressure closing in on Northern Britain more unsettled weather with some rain on a westerly breeze looks likely for a time towards midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the flow from the North persisting across the next 4-5 days with a cooling theme as the inherent warmth currently across the UK is displaced by colder sourced Arctic air with bright fresh days with chilly nights with a touch of frost. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM this morning is one of rising pressure displacing the warm and humid and unsettled conditions across the South of the UK into more settled and colder North winds with bright sells and the odd shower over the weekend. Then as we move through next week winds back Westerly and a phase of unsettled weather with some rain looks likely to move across from the West midweek with a trend then towards a NW/SE split with further rain at times in the NW while the South and East see longer drier spells when it may become warmer at times as well. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM has cooler weather on the way by the weekend too as the winds back Northerly for a time. A ridge close to the West of the UK over the weekend should bring dry and bright if cooler weather for many and as winds back Westerly next week the theme is for more unsettled conditions across the North and West while fine conditions are more likely to last longer in the South and East although even here some rain is shown to affect these parts a week or so from now. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows the cooler Northerly flow at the weekend with largely dry and bright conditions with just an odd shower. Then as we move through next week a spell of Atlantic Westerly winds seems likely with some rain at times largely but not exclusively towards the North and West. then towards the second weekend High pressure builds in closer to the South and SE with a strong NW/SE split developing with fine and warm conditions across the South and east with the more unsettled weather held well towards the North and West by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a theme close to that of the Operational Run at Day 10 with High pressure close to the SE and any unsettled weather more likely towards the far NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS As yesterday the main emphasis shown by the models continues to point towards a return to a westerly flow across the UK next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.8pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.5 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.7 pts to 37.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The next few weeks present few if any troublesome features to talk about with a lot of quite benign conditions likely across the British Isles as the pattern resets to normal UK synoptics over the next 4 to 5 days. The final embers of the warm and muggy air still over the UK will be pulled away South in the coming 48 hours as a weak cold front runs South tomorrow and Friday night. A quiet and benign weekend of weather is then likely with a a lot of cloud at times, the odd shower and some chilly nights. Then next week the theme is for winds to back towards the West with the risk of some rain almost anywhere for a time but more especially over the North but temperatures should recover somewhat especially by night. Moving further on still the most popular consensus appears to be for High pressure to be building close to the South or SE with these areas seeing a lot more in the way of fine and warm weather developing later in the period but the NW in particular looks like holding on to more of an Atlantic cyclonic influence with some rain. And that's about it really quite a quiet period of weather overall likely with nothing unpleasant or unusual being shown for the period anywhere and after a chilly few nights at the weekend when gardeners and growers need to take note of a risk of ground frost for a couple of nights this risk should be removed with average temperatures at least achieved for most of the period thereafter for all areas. Next Update Friday May 13th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 11TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure to the South of the UK with associated troughs remain straddled across Southern Britain. Over the next few days a NE and then Northerly flow develops across all areas pushing troughs away South and introducing much cooler and fresher air to all areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK at around 8000ft but this will be relatively short-lived from tomorrow as colder uppers lower the level to around 3000-5000ft East to West by and over the weekend. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler and dry for a time then dry and bright in the South with some rain at times across the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This becomes replaced by a weak Southward moving flow across the UK at the weekend a band of winds which move East by early next week with a more undulating pattern of the flow North and South of the UK in the period from the latter end of next week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows very changeable conditions across the UK over the next few weeks. The current warm and unsettled conditions across the South are swept away by a chillier Northerly flow over the weekend before milder Atlantic and cyclonic winds are shown to develop next week with some rain at times for all. With time warmer and brighter conditions are shown to affect the South with an extension of this to all areas later as pressure builds strongly across the UK with conditions turning warm again later in the period under High pressure to the NE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel Run this morning shows a very similar sequence of events across the UK over the next few weeks to that shown by the Operational above with the general message that after a cooler and dry weekend more unsettled weather returns next week to be gradually pulled away by rising pressure with the run ending with High pressure across the UK and Scandinavia with all places dry, sunny and potentially very warm for many. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1 GFS CONTROL RUN To complete the set from GFS this run follows a similar path to the above although the end part of the run shows slacker pressure across the UK with perhaps some showers about especially in the South with temperatures somewhat lower as a result. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of High pressure probably close to the SW or west of the UK with a lot of dry and set fair weather as a result. There is though a notable cluster amounting to 20% or so of much more unsettled conditions under low pressure up to the NW and a lesser number with Low pressure to the NE with a cool NW flow. (20%) http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning continues to show a ridge of High pressure building across the British Isles over the weekend with a slack NW flow likely, cooler than of late for all but containing a lot of dry weather with just the odd shower near North and East coasts but with a fair amount of daytime cloud cover with this setup lasting well into next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the current warm and muggy slack flow across the UK becoming displaced by a chillier Northerly flow by the weekend pushing troughs over the South in the next few days away to the South. With High pressure then shown just to the West over the weekend and start to next week a lot of dry and bright weather is expected with the risk of a shower still across the North and East. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM this morning is one of rising pressure displacing the warm and humid and unsettled conditions across the South of the UK over the next few days. Pressure then stays largely High to the SW and later South with the cool North or NW flow backing West or SW through next week with Northern and Western areas coming under from from Atlantic troughs while the South and East closest to higher pressure over the near continent sees more in the way of dry and warming weather. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM has cooler weather on the way by the weekend too as the winds back Northerly for a time. A ridge close to the West of the UK over the weekend should bring dry and bright if cooler weather for many and as winds back Westerly next week the theme is for more unsettled conditions across the North and West while fine conditions are more likely to last longer in the South and East although even here some rain is shown to affect these parts a week or so from now. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows the continuing theme of the pattern resetting to a more traditional UK type by the start of next week. The current unsettled and muggy Easterly flow across the South is displaced by higher pressure moving in from the West and SW over the weekend with dry and cooler weather feeding down on a weak Northerly flow over the weekend. This then backs westerly early next week and the theme settles to Low pressure to the North and Higher pressure to the South with a strengthening WSW flow affecting all areas by midweek next week with some rain at times possible for all but chiefly for the North and West while the South and SE see drier, brighter and warmer spells too. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a trend towards a return to a more traditional Low to the Northwest and High to the South pattern with rain at times more likely over the North with drier, brighter and warmer spells more likely across the South and SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS As yesterday the main emphasis shown by the models continues to point towards a return to a westerly flow across the UK next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.8pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.5 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.7 pts to 37.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS I can be quite brief this morning in my appraisal of the model outputs as they remain mostly focused upon a change from Continental winds blowing across the UK to colder and fresher Northerlies over the weekend and less cool and a traditional Westerly flow next week when the main theme will be for the fine weather that's been over the North lately to be transferred towards the South and SE while the NW sees the return of Westerly winds, bands of cloud and rain. There is some output that shows some rain reaching the South at times too and in the longer term outputs from GFS there looks a good chance that fine weather over the South later next week extends to all areas later in period in the shape of another fine and warm spell under High pressure over or close to the UK. So after the rains of today and perhaps tomorrow for many in the South a protracted dry and set fair period looks likely for the South for 5 days at least and it maybe that after the risk of some rain later next week for many the UK as a whole could return to some more High pressure based weather with temperatures on the rise again by the last week of May further endorsed by the Met office updates of late. Next Update Thursday May 12th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 10TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure to the South of the UK with associated troughs straddling Southern Britain will continue to bring outbreaks of rain across Southern Britain while the North remains largely dry and fine in an Easterly flow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK at around 8000ft where it will remain for the next few days. Then towards the weekend the level will fall to around 4000-5000ft from the North and NE. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler and dry for a time then dry and bright in the South with some rain at times across the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This remains for several more days before it weakens and as far as the UK is concerned a spore of Jet flow energy moves South down over us from the weaker Northern arm towards the weekend. This Southward moving energy lies on the eastern flank of a weakening ridge across the Eastern Atlantic and is eventually superseded by a new lease of energy from the Southern arm which then sets up a more West to East flow across the UK in the second week in association with Low pressure to the North. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure down to the South moving slowly ENE later this week with the South seeing a lot of heavy showers or longer outbreaks of rain for a few more days. Then the trend is for winds to back towards the North with cooler and fresher conditions extending South to all areas by the weekend. Winds then continue to back off towards the West and SW by this time next week and this sets up a more traditional Atlantic based cyclonic pattern next week and through to the end of the run with Low pressure in close proximity to the UK with rain and showers at times in average temperatures for all areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel Run this morning shows Week 1 the same as the Operational with a trend towards cooler and drier weather last to reach the South by the weekend. Then the second half of the run is rather different to the Operational again with the return of more unsettled Atlantic based winds eventually more restricted to the NW where rain and showers continue while the South and East sees plenty of drier and warmer weather for a lot of the time in association with higher pressure across France and later to the West and SW. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1 GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run looks more like the Operational Run rather than the Parallel Run again today in regard to Week 2 with a changeable pattern for all areas with rain at times as Atlantic winds and depressions slowly take hold for most of the UK again through the second week but also mixed in with some drier and brighter spells in average temperatures overall. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of High pressure near the UK in 14 days probably positioned down to the SW of the UK with a strong ridge NE across the UK. There are still some members who prefer something a little more cyclonic themed but these are in a decreasing amount today. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning continues to show the slow transition towards drier and cooler conditions moving down from the North by the weekend as the Low to the South currently takes away the risk of thundery showers or rain by the weekend with a fairly decent if cooler weekend for all looking likely as a weakening ridge moves East towards the UK but there looks as though there is still the risk of the odd shower towards the East coast. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show quite a complex scenario of troughs across Southern Britain for the rest of the working week with thundery showers and outbreaks of rain scattered about here in light winds. Then as winds back towards the North and strengthen by the weekend the troughs are swept away South and SW with a cooler, fresher and drier weekend looking likely for all as a ridge of High pressure pushes in towards the West. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows the same thundery Low pressure to the South moving away ENE across Europe later in the week backing the winds towards the North and introducing cooler and fresher conditions in time for the weekend. By that time a High pressure ridge approaches the West and sinks SE to lie to the South of the UK next week backing winds towards the West and SW. Low pressure to the North then brings changeable conditions over the North with some rain at times from passing Atlantic fronts while Southern and SE Britain becomes largely dry, bright and warm in association with High pressure just to the South of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM has cooler weather on the way by the weekend as the winds back Northerly for a time. A ridge close to the West of the UK over the weekend should bring dry and bright if cooler weather for many before some showers affect the North and East by this time next week as winds back WNW with High pressure a little too far away to the SW to fully affect the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today follows the theme shown by the GFS Parallel Run, their clustering and GEM with the Northerly at the weekend backing SW'ly next week with a NW/SE pattern developing with wind, rain at times and average temperatures affecting the NW while the further SE one travels down over the UK the weather will be drier, brighter and warmer especially in the SE itself where it could be rather warm at times later next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a trend towards a return to a more traditional Low to the North and High to the South pattern with rain at times more likely over the North with drier, brighter and warmer spells more likely across the South and SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme is for cooler and drier conditions to move across the UK under a ridge next weekend with a gradual shift now in more runs showing a NW/SE split in weather conditions likely over the second half of the two week period. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.8pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.5 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.7 pts to 37.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The output today continues to predict a slow shift away from this pattern of Low pressure to the South and Higher pressure to the North currently to the reverse next week. The transition period is over the weekend as the current very showery and humid air across the South of the UK is pushed away South by backing Easterly winds towards the North by the weekend bringing cooler and fresher conditions to all parts but with pleasant enough conditions with sunny spells at times. Then as we move into next week and beyond winds back towards the West and SW with Low pressure becoming more dominant towards the North or NW of the UK with the ridge to the SW extending across France later. This will probably mean after the recent dry and very warm conditions over the North and NW more conventional conditions will develop in these parts with rain and wind at times on Atlantic winds and nearer to average temperatures. In the South conditions will improve. Gone will be the risk of thundery rain and showers and as winds back towards the West and SW a lot of dry and relatively warm weather develops close to High pressure likely over Biscay and France by then. So that is the basic and most popular consensus between the outputs this morning with variations to this theme governed only by more extent of Northern Low pressure with rain for all at times rather than a North/South split. So all in all nothing too concerning on the horizon this morning and it maybe that the South with time become quite pleasant through next week with just very occasional rain whereas the North see more changeable conditions, something that is quite normal for these parts. While no heatwave is shown this morning the colder blip at the weekend looks just that with frost with the exception of Saturday night looking unlikely except in the most prone spots. Next Update Wednesday May 11th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY MAY 9TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure to the South of the UK will push troughs North across Southern Britain over the next 48 hours in an Easterly flow which will be maintained for many for several days before backing NE later in the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK range between 8000-10000ft over the following three or four days with a steady fall off of values later in the week from the North and NE. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler and drier from the weekend especially in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This remains for some while this week before weakening by the weekend as the Low pressure down there moves slowly away ENE over mainland Europe. A weak flow then runs South just to the East of the UK next weekend before in the second week the flow rejuvenates moving Eastwards just South of the UK again with Low pressure close by to the British Isles. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure down to the South moving slowly ENE later this week with the South seeing a lot of heavy showers or longer outbreaks of rain on most days. Higher pressure in the North will maintain drier conditions for the most part and with the air inherently mild it should feel warm in the sun. Later in the week the winds will back Northerly for all and it will be cooler but drier for all next weekend. Then in the second week Low pressure is shown to feed in from the North and West with cyclonic winds countrywide then through Week 2 with rain at times in average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel Run this morning shows Week 1 the same as the Operational with a trend towards cooler and drier weather last to reach the South by next weekend. Then the drier weekend follows on to a better week of weather than the Operational shows as High pressure to the South keeps those areas largely dry with some rain from Atlantic fronts further to the North. However, the run does show all areas becoming more unsettled in cyclonic conditions by the end of the run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1 GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run looks more like the Operational Run rather than the Parallel Run with an unsettled and cyclonic pattern through the second week too with the same sequence of events through this week leading to an interlude of drier, cooler conditions over the weekend under a brief Northerly flow. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 continues to show no definitive patterning at that time showing instead a slight bias towards lower pressure giving rise to rain at times but also plenty of better options under higher pressure patterns as well. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the slow transition towards drier and cooler conditions moving down from the North by the weekend as the Low to the South currently takes away the risk of thundery showers or rain by the weekend with a fairly decent if cooler weekend for all looking likely as a weak ridge moves East across the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show quite a complex scenario of troughs across Southern Britain for all of this working week as they move North at times in the next few days and then slowly away South towards the end of the week as the warmth of recent days is gradually squeezed out under cooler Northerly winds by the weekend flooding South. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows the same thundery Low pressure to the South moving away ENE across Europe later in the week backing the winds towards the North and introducing cooler and fresher conditions in time for the weekend. The rain and showers in the South through this week reduce later with a dry weekend looking likely for many as something of a ridge crosses East. Then as we move through the start of next week a Westerly flow is shown to develop with rain returning on Atlantic troughs, this time heaviest in the North and West and driest towards the SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a showery week to come in the South and fair weather in the North as the Low to the South takes until the weekend to move away far enough to lose it's grip over the UK. Then the weekend looks set fair as the cooler Northerly develops ahead of a ridge making the weekend a decent if cooler one for many with perhaps some rain on Atlantic troughs reaching the NW soon after the start of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today also shows High pressure inching in from the West next weekend and into the second week but it still looks a painfully slow task and although all parts should see a lot of fair and dry weather in cooler air than of late across the UK next weekend it's longer term survival looks fraught as we move into next week with Low pressure from both the NW and SE squeezing the life out of a ridge over the UK and possibly re-introducing showery rain late in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a trend towards a return to a more traditional Low to the North and High to the South pattern but there are many other options shown within members too with the chart as a result much less reliably accurate than usual. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme is for cooler and drier conditions to move across the UK under a ridge next weekend with a lot of indecision still on the longer term prospects. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.0 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.2 pts to UKMO at 86.6pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.0 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.2 pts to 36.5 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There is some coming together of the models in the theme that covers this week's weather and now the weekend's too as the demise of the thundery Low to the South later this week has been agreed upon as well as the weak ridge of High pressure across the UK next weekend with fine and cooler conditions looking more likely next weekend now rather than anything else. Through this week there will be a fair amount of showers and heavy rain across the South especially tomorrow before the winds begin to back NE after midweek and pulls cooler air down from the North by the weekend. It now looks that the worst of this cold plunge will be to the east of the UK with the British isles having a quiet and dry weekend with some chilly night but some decent daytime weather when temperatures should reach average levels. As we look towards the second week things are less clear cut with GFS looking quite unsettled again across the UK with Low pressure close by bringing rain at times for all although the New Parallel Run is somewhat less supportive of this with the Clusters offering no clear patterning either at the 14 day time point. ECM shows the road towards a more traditional NW/SE pattern at the end of its run with some rain developing across the NW while the South and East sees something rather brighter, dry and warmer weather although the day 10 chart itself is a little less supportive of this pattern. So as you can tell from a reliably accurate prediction of this weeks likely conditions confidence falls away rapidly for next week and I feel we need a few more days runs yet before conditions predicted for next week can be accurately foreseen. Next Update Tuesday May 10th 2016 from 09:00

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY MAY 8TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure over Spain and later France will push troughs up across Southern Britain over the coming days in a warm and moist Easterly flow. The North will be largely set fair in the same Easterly flow though here the air will be more stable than in areas further South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK range between 8000-10000ft over the following three or four days and these levels will extend to the far NW too today where values have been rather lower than elsewhere across the UK recently. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather warm with thundery showers in the South. Perhaps rather cooler later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This remains for much of this before a rise in pressure over the Eastern Atlantic pushes a thread of the flow South across the UK in a Northerly flow. Then late in the period a rather complex Jet stream pattern emerges with the main energy still wanting to lie to the South of the UK rather than elsewhere. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure down to the South and later to the SE of the UK this week with Easterly winds and showery weather for many Southern areas with rather warm and in places humid conditions prevailing. In the North it will stay largely dry and this will extend to Western areas further South towards next weekend as the Low to the South moves East and winds back to a cooler Northerly though with further heavy showers across Southern and later Eastern areas of the UK. Then through the second week details look elusive but in essence the UK looks to remain close to showery Low pressure with some bright and sunny intervals in between but with temperatures more likely to have returned to normal values by then at the same time as being less humid as winds back more to a Westerly at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN Using the GFS Operational Run above as a template for the coming two weeks the GFS Parallel Run today differs in that higher pressure is shown to extend East into the UK next weekend with a fine and bright spell lasting for several days and perhaps longer across the South before a return to unsettled and possibly windy conditions spreads down across all areas later, this time from the NW with temperatures after a warm start reverting to nearer to average values. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1 GFS CONTROL RUN This run follows closer to the Operational rather than the Parallel Run through the phase surrounding next weekend and the start of the second week with continues showery conditions in winds from a cooler Northerly source. However, late in the period this run shows warm and sunny conditions developing across England and Wales as the Azores High extends NE into Southern Britain with any wind and rain held across the far NW. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 remains distinctly useless as a tool into what conditions will be like over the UK in two weeks time with an equal split of both Low and High pressure scenarios on offer meaning everything from potentially dry and sunny weather to cool and showery conditions in a Northerly flow. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the thundery Low pressure area currently over Spain dominant across Southern and later Eastern areas of the UK throughout this coming week as it slowly trundles it's way East to lie over SE Europe by next weekend with contrasting High pressure centred up to the NW of the British Isles by then resulting in a fall off in temperatures under the Northerly or NE'ly aspect to the flow by then with many North-western areas of the UK having an entirely dry and warm week while the South and East see further heavy showers at times right out to and probably including next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show quite a complex scenario revolving around the movement of Low pressure over Spain and it's effects on the UK. The basic message is for the NW to see the best conditions with fronts moving into the South at times with some heavy and thundery rain in humid conditions until later in the week when an attack of fronts from the North looks like reducing temperatures to average with the risk of further showers at times in winds becoming more from the North by next weekend lowering the humidity values. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows slow but subtle changes in it's patterning over the next week to 10 days as the current warm and humid SE flow backs away towards the NE and later North with the showery conditions across the South and East too later this week breaking down under High pressure inching in from the West by next weekend with fine and less warm conditions for all for several days before High pressure to the WSW sets up a WNW flow across the UK with rather more unsettled conditions affecting the North and NE late in the run with the SW seeing the driest and warmest conditions by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows the slow decline in conditions from the South affecting the UK as winds back more towards the NE and North through the coming week. However, thundery showers will affect many Southern and Eastern areas for a good few days yet and it will feel warm in any sunshine. Then by next weekend a cooler North flow and showers transferring towards the East will spell a slow change to a more Atlantic based west or NW pattern by the start of the second week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today also shows High pressure inching in from the West next weekend and into the second week but it never quite makes it maintaining something of a Northerly drift down across the UK with perhaps a few showers still in the East and more importantly cleaning up the air into a cooler fresher feel. As we approach the end of the run it shows more instability being injected into the air across the UK with showers returning to all this time from the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart has backed a ridge West from earlier versions of this chart which leads me to believe that any advancement of High pressure into the UK from the West from next weekend will be slow, painstaking or at worst non-existent...more runs needed. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a warm and humid period of weather across the UK before a gradual reduction in both temperatures and showers look likely later though conditions beyond next weekend still come with low confidence. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.3 pts to UKMO at 86.5pts and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.2 pts to 51.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.5 pts to 36.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Although the overall patterning of the weather over the next week looks pretty much set in stone the method and in particular local detail that gets us out of this pattern for the period surrounding next weekend and beyond remains very uncertain. So step by step what we have now is Low pressure down over Spain and Portugal which incidentally is giving some pretty inclement May weather down there and some of this is heading up towards Southern Britain to affect these areas between tomorrow and Wednesday. The warm and humid feed of air surrounding this will affect much of the UK but the North looks like getting away with a largely dry spell over the coming 3-4 days with the highest temperatures to the NW. Then as the week progresses the trend will be for winds to back away from the SE to more of a NEy feed by the end of the working week lowering both temperature and humidity values somewhat while maintaining some showery weather to include eastern areas too by that time. It's from then that the confusion between the models start as colder air will be moving South across Scandinavia and with High pressure to the West and NW of the UK this could be driven our way with the models in total disarray about how much of that cold and showery air will affect conditions over the UK. Some output suggests not much while others maintain a cooler Northerly drift with further showers eventually culminating in further unsettled weather fed down from the NW with rain and showers at times to end the forecast period. However, this is not the only option with other output suggesting High pressure ridging towards the South and setting up more of a NW/SE split at least for a time with the SE half of the UK becoming warm and dry with rain and wind towards the NW. It will be interesting to see how the models handle the changes through the coming week as all options shown look to me totally feasible. However, to end with the more definitive part of the forecast it looks a showery week to come especially across the South and East where they could be heavy and thundery at times. The best weather looks to be towards the NW this week and after a very warm start for some the conditions look set to turn rather cooler by next weekend with temperatures closer to the seasonal average at the same time as feeling less humid. Next Update Monday May 9th 2016 from 09:00