Gibby

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday February 13th 2014. All models show a showery westerly flow across the UK today with wintry showers on hills and in the North. Tonight sees a new low developing to the SW and spreading NE across Ireland and the North tomorrow bringing renewed heavy rain and severe gales to all areas tomorrow. As it moves North through tomorrow night the UK will again be affected by a very showery westerly flow with the risk of hill snow remaining in a cold and blustery wind. On Sunday a showery start to the day will lessen as a ridge moves across from the West ahead of the next less deep Low pressure which arrives over the South on Monday with rain and showers and hill snow across the UK to start next week. GFS then shows the remainder of next week as rather changeable with rain at times as weakening Low pressure areas spill in from the West delivering rain at times and snow over Northern hills. Longer term the weather remains and becomes somewhat colder still with some dry and bright weather with always the risk of rain, sleet and snow around as pressure falls slack over the British Isles. UKMO ends it's run this morning showing next Wednesday with a slack and chilly Westerly flow across the UK with a trough sliding in from the West bringing some rain across the South and maybe snow in the North as it bumps into colder air. GEM today has already brought a trough across the UK by Wednesday leading to the rest of the run showing breezy Westerly winds and further rain bearing systems across the UK in largely average temperatures. NAVGEM closes it's run with Westerly winds well in control still with rain and showers at times with the heaviest rain more likely towards the NW in average temperatures once more. ECM today carries a ridge across the UK through the middle of next week with two or three welcome days of dry weather across the South which would be very welcome. However, by the weekend the weather slides downhill again as Atlantic troughs bear down on the UK from the West with more rain edging slowly East The ECM Mean Charts today have limited support to the operational for the midweek period next week but are less supportive of anything more than a transient ridge as Low pressure is still shown with a strong foothold over the UK weather positioned just to the West of Scotland with SW winds and rain at times likely for all again by next weekend after a brief respite midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles are not at all supportive of the operational's colder solution towards the end of it's run instead opting for very unsettled conditions continuing with rain and strong winds at times in a strong Atlantic influence of Westerly winds. http://www.null/two/ensembles/ The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow trying to move north and weaken after this week which it does succeed in doing briefly before it strengthens again later and edges South again in an undulating form through Week 2. In Summary after the next powerful depression tomorrow and Saturday there looks certain to be at least some moderation in the weather as we move out of the weekend and into next week. This may not be that apparent early in the week as a new Low will bring further rain but the winds will be less strong. Then towards midweek pressure may rise sufficiently across the South at least to give a brief drier interlude. However, the overall pattern remains unsettled and there looks plenty of scope in the later period for the Atlantic to return in one form or another delivering yet more rain and some windy weather too with temperatures probably recovering from the rather chilly levels currently to something nearer the average and maybe a little above at times in the South.

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 midday outputs from the NWP for today Wednesday February 12th 2014 and posted over from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a deep low pressure drifting slowly North over Scotland over the next 24 hours with a strong and showery Westerly flow bringing frequent showers with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible almost anywhere over the next 24 hours. A few drier and clearer intervals will separate the showers, these most likely in the East. Then by Friday a new storm equally deep as this one is shown to make a repeat track across Ireland and then on to Scotland later in the day with more severe gales and heavy rain sweeping East across all areas followed by another day or two of cold wintry showers and bright intervals in gradually decreasing winds. GFS then shows next week and the remainder of the run with continuing unsettled weather though it is important to say things look less dramatic than currently with some drier and brighter spells separating the rain and showers periods in temperatures largely unchanged or maybe a little milder at times than currently. UKMO ends it's run on Tuesday with a weak ridge across the UK with a weak trough approaching from the West with occasional rain later in the day with fairly average temperatures overall. GEM shows a more coherent ridge as we move through the middle and end of next week. Eventually some ingress of Atlantic wind and rain does move in towards the North and West later. NAVGEM also shows Low pressure making it's way back into the UK in the shape of a trough bringing rain slowly East more likely in the North and West. ECM tonight shows less dramatic weather next week as Low pressure orientates itself on a different course giving the most rain across the NW. Later in the run a slack ridge of High pressure builds North from the South settling things down at long last with the NW likely to be the only areas likely to see significant rain by the end of next week. It doesn't look like it will last long though in it's shown form. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to show a slightly less optimistic mean from the operational although the basic pattern isn't far from agreed. low pressure looks likely up to the NW in 10 days time with a SW flow bringing occasional rain to the UK but in less dramatic form than that of late. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continuation of rain at times under an Atlantic influence continuing. Temperatures will rise somewhat to levels near or somewhat above average after the next three or four days. The GFS Jet Stream continues to blow to the South of the UK for three or four more days before the flow become much more flamboyant as it undulates North and South over and around the vicinity of the British Isles. In Summary tonight there is still some good support for something of an improvement in conditions from the period towards the middle of next week. There will still be some rain at times likely, more especially over the North with the South seeing the best of drier and brighter spells with some relief for flooded areas at last.

Never mind about snow Ian we have just had one of the most intense hail storms in Radstock I have seen for years. Ice everywhere making our rush hour very difficult

Good morning folks. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs as I see them from the NWP for this morning Wednesday February 12th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models illustrate a very volatile weather pattern between now and the end of the weekend as all models show two separate storm systems crossing NE over Ireland and the North through this period. As a result winds will become very strong with gales and severe gales likely later today and again later on Friday and overnight. In addition a spell of very heavy rain will sweep NE across the UK today and again on Friday afternoon with clearer, colder and very showery weather at other times when some snow could fall over the hills and at least some moderation of the wind would likely occur. Then next week GFS shows unsettled weather maintained as further Low pressure slip ESE across the South and then all of the UK by midweek with yet more copious rain events for many and some snow likely in the North where it will be colder. The rest of the run settles into a changeable Westerly weather type between Low pressure areas crossing East to the North and High pressure to the South. Troughs would continue to cross East in the strong Westerly flow with the heaviest rain in the North and West with some showery interludes in between. Temperatures would become close to or perhaps a little above average across the South at times. UKMO shows Tuesday being cold with a filling Low across Southern Britain with rain and showers scattered about falling as sleet or snow over the hills. Precipitation would be less widespread than on previous days though under light winds. GEM builds pressure to the North of Scandinavia strongly this morning with cold Continental air moving in on the back end of depressions slipping slowly SE across NW Europe. This would increase the potential for sleet or snow for a time in temperatures much lower than anything we have seen thus far this year though on this run it appears temporary as by Day 10 the Atlantic wind and fronts push the cold back north and East in attendance of rainfall. NAVGEM anchores Low pressure across Northern Europe the UK and the Eastern Atlantic maintaining a windy and unsettled theme with spells of rain and showers on a mostly Westerly flow. Some snow could occur on northern hills at times. ECM today shows an interesting solution which also like GEM leads to a very cold Easterly late in the run as pressure rises over Britain midweek giving a 48hr of dry weather for the SW. Pressure then becomes very high North of Scandinavia with Low pressure slipped down over Europe leading to disrupting troughs near the SW of Britain bring yet more rain late in the week here with snow over the moors while Eastern areas see a cold feed from Europe bringing with it the risk of snow showers and much colder weather. The ECM 7 to 10 Day Mean Charts this morning are resilient to any significant change from the pattern they have shown over recent days in as much that Low pressure lies South of Iceland and High pressure near the Azores with the Jet flow to the South of the UK maintaining a preference to keep the UK under relatively mild Westerly winds with rain at times, heaviest towards the NW. There must be scant support for any High pressure North of Scandinavia within the pack as pressure there is shown to average no higher than 1010-1015mbs. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles are not very supportive of the colder evolutions mentioned above with a trend of fairly average value temperatures looking likely with rain at times though less in amounts than recent times. http://www.null/two/ensembles/ The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows and reflects it's main member outputs this morning in keeping the Jet flow either over or still to the South of the UK maintaining the formation of deep Low pressure centres over or to the North of Britain as it drifts a couple of hundred miles further North than currently later in the run. In Summary this morning the output is once more becoming very fascinating viewing as the models jostle around with various solutions to get us out of the current rut of Atlantic depression after Atlantic depressions crossing the UK. On the one hand we have GFS and NAVGEM who both show an unrelenting Atlantic dominated pattern with further Low pressure areas keeping the basic wet and windy theme going while UKMO, GEM and ECM show in my opinion a strong chance that we could have a switch to a more Continental dominated pattern at least for a time. In the case of the charts shown specifics for next week should this verify are unimportant at the moment and would change run to run. It is a dangerous course of synoptics to undergo though as it could swing the pendulum one of two ways for the flood stricken folks in the South. If the Easterly feed is allowed to take hold it could at long last make for some useful dry weather to at least drain some of the flooding away while on the other hand with a cold block to the NE we run the risk of Low pressure ramming into the block over what could be a UK battleground with further heavy rainfall or indeed snowfall in those areas that least need it. We will have to see how this dangerous pattern develops over subsequent runs if at all and to see whether it gains support from other models and indeed their own ensembles.

Good evening. Here is tonight's review of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday February 11th 2014. All models continue to show a very unsettled outlook for some time to come with a showery and cold Westerly flow tonight with wintry showers, heavy in the West with some snowfall over the hills. Tomorrow shows a deepening Low moving NE over Ireland through the day with SW gales and heavy rains sweeping NE over the UK through the day followed by 36-48hrs worth of strong Westerly winds and further blustery wintry showers. Then on Friday another very deep depression moves NE across the South with very heavy rain and hill snow in the North before the weekend turns back into a showery and chilly one with wintry showers on all higher ground and a cold West wind. GFS then shows next week as unsettled too with bands of rain and showers move East across the UK with strong winds continuing to blow from the West or SW with temperatures recovering somewhat with time. UKMO tonight concludes with Low pressure centred over Southern England next Monday with rain and showers continuing over the UK though with less wind than of late. GEM tonight shows a complete change next week with High pressure developing to the North and East and allowing a cold Easterly flow with the chance of sleet and snow in places with frost at night especially in the East and South. NAVGEM keeps unsettled weather going at the start of next week as Monday's Low fades away to be replaced by SW winds and another trough moving across on Tuesday with more rain through the day. ECM tonight does offer some respite towards the middle of next week as a strong ridge from the Azores High builds NE towards Southern England by midweek next week bringing a dry period with bright and sunny spells in light winds and some frost at night. It isn't shown to last long though before the Atlantic depression machine churns out more unsettled weather gradually moving down from the NW well before the end of the week. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little change tonight from this morning's effort with the bias continuing to be one of Low pressure to the North and NW with a WSW flow over the UK with rain or showers continuing at times. It should be noted though that the improvement shown at around 168hrs on the operational is supported to some degree before the deterioration of the aforementioned charts come to pass. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles tonight show strong support for a warming trend from early next week. What it doesn't show is an end to rainfall for any length of time with further rain shown throughout the run from many members indicative of an Atlantic based pattern continuing. The Jet Stream Forecast remains constant for the time being with the flow continuing to blow strongly to the South of the UK. The flow still shows some indication of tilting more SW to NE over the UK with time as pressure builds somewhat to the South. In Summary tonight there still seems very little conclusive evidence of any to be relied upon dry weather anytime soon. It does seem probable that next week will see less severe weather over the UK with more standard February weather which at any other time would go unmentioned but as these are not ordinary times any rain next week will be far from welcome and most places will see at least some meaning that the clean up operation in flood stricken areas could be painfully slow. For coldies there is an olive branch from GEM which if verified would bring a wintry period with the possibility of some snow on an Easterly breeze but it seems something of a shot in the dark in the grand scheme of other output.

Good morning folks. Another wet morning here in the West Country and another poor set of charts to whiz through this morning as I look at the outputs of the big 5 this morning for today Tuesday February 11th 2014. All models show a squally trough and outbreaks of rain, heavy in places swinging East across the UK currently followed by a cold and windy Westerly flow with wintry showers later with some snow on all high ground. Tomorrow shows showers dying down early in the day as winds back SW and strengthen to gale or severe gale in the SW as another deep and powerful depression sweeps NE over Ireland and the North through the day with another spell of very heavy rain and snow in the North followed by showers, wintry again over hills. Thursday sees a strong Westerly flow as the Low moves away with further wintry showers and this goes into Friday too in the North before the South clouds over again late in the day as yet another deep Low moves up into the South with widespread heavy rain and gales. As this engages with colder air in the North a spell of snow is possible, perhaps disruptive in places before Sunday returns the rather cold and showery pattern once more. GFS then takes us through next week showing a broad flow of Westerly winds and rain at times as fronts from depressions to the North of the UK cross East in the flow. Pressure will be higher to the South and SW of the UK than of late so the emphasis of the most rain should shift away from the SW to the NW with some drier and brighter intervals between the rain bands. Temperatures will recover to near average values after the weekend. UKMO today closes it's run at the start of next week showing Low pressure near Southern Ireland moving ESE and delivering another spell of heavy rain in the South and West. However, this Low may bring a spell of snow for some especially in the North and East as it engages cold air on it's Northern and Eastern flank. GEM shows a rather cold and quieter period next week under a weak Northerly. Wintry showers could occur in places and frosts at night. Further rain at times look possible again later as fronts disrupt somewhat over the UK with no doubt some further snowfall towards the NE. NAVGEM shows weak ridging for a time early next week with more scattered possibly wintry showers before Atlantic fronts return rain to most areas by this time next week. ECM shows brief ridging too early next week but it all seems very tentative with troughs also in the mix continuing the risk of wintry showers or rain early next week before a new surge of the Atlantic is shown towards the end of next week with more widespread rain and showers once more. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts are still very poor this morning with the general theme likely to remain one of Low pressure to the NW of the British Isles continuing to steer spells of wind and rain in a typical WSW flow with the heaviest rains perhaps more likely towards the NW though the SW will still get a fair amount should this pattern verify. With winds likely to be from the West or SW temperatures should pick up a bit from those of this week, especially in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles today show strong support for a rise in temperatures later in the run as High pressure creeps up closer to Southern Britain. However, with rain still shown scattered about between the members it looks unlikely it will get close enough though the heaviest deluges look less likely than those of the upcoming 4-5 days. http://www.null/two/ensembles/ The GFS Jet Stream Forecast indicates the flow maintaining it's current status South of the UK for a while yet before it's orientation shifts more towards the NE over the Atlantic and the UK in response to pressure rises to the South. In Summary today there is still no definitive end to the current spell of wet weather with all models toying around with a weakening Jet flow and it's final resting place. As it is this morning all models do hint at some changes likely next week though they all show very tentative solutions which don't underline any significant dry and fine spell with High pressure struggling to take overall control. The most likely solution that I can see today is that after this weeks terrible weather again things will moderate into next week with the emphasis of rain shifting more towards the NW and away from the SW which is a positive in it's own right and it maybe that the South in general sees some drier interludes and less frequent and heavy rain. In addition the rather cold weather of this week could well give way to something rather milder at times later in a SW flow.

Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs supplied by the NWP for today Monday February 10th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a disturbing period of weather coming up over the remainder of this week and the weekend. Today's benign conditions will be replaced overnight by an active squally trough moving East over the UK later tonight and tomorrow followed by a fresh to strong Westerly flow. Heavy rain and hills now over the North will be replaced tomorrow by wintry showers and sunny intervals with the North and West seeing the most showers with some drier periods developing across the South and East. through Wednesday another major storm system propels it's way across England deepening explosively as it goes with severe gales and very heavy rain will sweep through all areas followed by squally wintry showers with hail and thunder on Thursday. A repeat performance of the storm will likely occur later on Friday with a colder and showery period over the weekend with strong West then NW winds with showers, wintry and heavy with snow on hills. GFS then shows next week with very little change I'm afraid as further Low pressure areas move across the UK with further bands of rain followed by showers wintry on hills in the North. It will also be windy at times but maybe without the risk of damaging winds possible this week. The very end of the run still shows a drier phase as something of a ridge crosses East but with Low pressure out to the west and NW it all looks very tentative. UKMO tonight shows the UK lying in a void between two low pressure systems. The one to the East taking it's showery weather away with it while the second approaches the West of the UK later in the day with further rain, strong winds and hill snow in rather chilly weather. GEM looks similar to UKMO at Day 6 moving forward to maintain unsettled and sometimes windy weather with rain at times as Low pressure areas are never far away from the UK to the North. NAVGEM closes it's run tonight with a Westerly flow backing SW slowly as we go through the start of next week. With pressure relatively low and winds brisk in strength troughs will continue to deliver rain at times in temperatures slowly recovering from the chilly weekend. ECM tonight is the joker of the pack and would if verified bring immediate relief from the wet and wild weather of late. It shows High pressure developing across the UK by midweek next week and towards Scandinavia with fine, very cold and very frosty weather developing with any rain restricted to the far SW then NW and sharp frost and fog night and morning very likely. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts don't support the operational tonight with the same consensus more likely than has been shown for some time meaning the likelihood is that Low pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the UK with a most likely Low pressure area to the NW with SW or West winds and rain at times still for all areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles show fairly average uppers across the UK through tonight's output rising somewhat towards the end of the run. There is still quite a lot of rain shown at times with this week in particular showing some uncomfortably high rainfall amounts. The GFS Jet Stream forecast shows the flow carrying on unabated in it's current form so changes in the weather pattern remain unlikely. What's more concerning tonight is the trend to ridge the flow North is less apparent tonight as well as the weakening of the flow with a strong flow now shown, still troughing to the South of the UK in two weeks time. In Summary tonight with the exception of the ECM operational it looks more of the same tonight with much of the output showing less in the way of improvements than in recent runs. However, the ECM operational has thrown a lifeline tonight and I hope it manifests and spreads between the other outputs soon to buy some much needed time to enable flooding relief work to take place without it battling against further rainfall. In the mean time it's batten down the hatches for the next 5-6 days as a couple of very disruptive periods of weather look like affecting the areas who least need it as very heavy rainfall and damaging gales look possible.

Good morning. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday February 10th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models agree on the basic sequence of events over the coming working week with today likely to be the best of the weather. A weak westerly or NW flow lies across the UK with a weak trough in the SE giving some light rain and showery troughs near the West giving some wintry showers but with a lot of dry and bright weather too. Tonight and tomorrow shows an active trough sweeping East with gales and rain clearing to wintry showers for all tomorrow in a blustery west wind. Showers on Wednesday then give way to a spell of potentially stormy weather late Wednesday and into Thursday with very heavy rain, snow on Northern hills and once more followed by wintry showers from the West. Late in the week a repeat performance looks likely as we reach the weekend. GFS then shows next weekend as a cold and showery one with wintry showers for many with snow on hills in the North accumulating in places. Early next week a new Low brings more prolonged rain and snow across the South followed by a more coherent spell of dry weather with frosty nights and bright days for a day or two. Then to end the run Atlantic wind and rains return in a blustery WSW flow with Low pressure areas to the North moving East. The GFS Ensembles show little encouragement for those looking for dry or indeed deeply colder weather as all indications point to more unsettled weather with rain at times and temperatures eventually back to very average values in mostly Westerly winds. UKMO today has a cold NW flow across the British Isles with sunshine and wintry showers across the UK next Sunday, especially in the North and West before a brief ridge approaches from the West later with a short drier interlude and perhaps a frost next Sunday night. GEM today is broadly similar to UKMO for next Sunday with a showery NW flow giving way to a ridge of High pressure from the West before more Atlantic troughs maintain an unsettled feel to the weather next week with further rain and showers at times in possible strong winds too. NAVGEM ends it's run this morning with Low pressure out to the NW and a milder SW flow bringing rain at times in blustery winds across the UK again next week after a rather cold and showery weekend. ECM still shows slow improvements from the South next week but we may well have to be patient as Low pressure remains resilient to a pressure rise from the South with rain at times still likely as far out as the middle of next week. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts today show very similar conditions expected in 9 and 10 days time that was shown in previous days output. Low pressure is biased towards being to the North of the UK with a WSW flow over the UK with bands of rain and showers expected in such conditions. the bias of worst rains should shift more towards the NW rather than SW as the Jet by then has shifted somewhat further North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Summary shows the flow remaining in situ for the next week or so pumping across the Atlantic and France. The push Northward is still shown next week but it is weaker than was shown yesterday with the main thinking being for it to cross the UK next week in a WW to ENE direction. In Summary this morning there remains a lot of unsettled weather to get through before there is any chance of improvements. Through this week several bouts of wind and rain will cross the UK, heavy and disruptive at times and giving some snowfall in places too, chiefly in the North. there is still a muted approach to somewhat better conditions next week, at least at times as pressure attempts to rise from the South. However, if anything such improvements shown are less pronounced this morning as it appears the Atlantic is likely to remain quite strong, continuing to throw spells of rain East across the UK on occasion.

Hi everyone. Will the improvements of this morning be built upon tonight? Here is my take on that very question as I review the latest outputs of the NWP based on their midday outputs for today Sunday February 9th 2014. All models show the weekend Low pressure now filling to the North while another tracks East to the South with the UK falling under an area of slack pressure for the next 36 hours. Some rain or wintry showers will still be scattered about, particularly near Western coasts and with some light rain for a time in the SE tomorrow morning. On Tuesday an active front moves East with strong winds ahead of it together with another spell of heavy rain and snow over the hills and in the North. By Wednesday the UK lies under a cold and showery Westerly flow with wintry showers giving some snowfall over hills, again chiefly in the North. Then overnight Wednesday into Thursday another active weather feature moves across the UK with renewed rain and gales followed by showers once more later in the day. GFS then ends the week with further Low pressure, gales and heavy rain before the weather improves somewhat late in the weekend though with some showers in the North as Low pressure moves further North than of late with Higher pressure to the South. Through the lower resolution part of the run tonight High pressure again features eventually settling over the UK with rather cold weather with frost and fog at night but dry for most. The GFS Ensembles tonight offer two weeks of fairly average values though after the mid point of the run this is made up from a wide spread between members with some very cold options being shown including the control run. Rainfall remains stubbornly present over the period but not as excessive as of late. UKMO shows next Saturday as a very showery and rather chilly day as Low pressure is positioned out in the North Sea with strong West veering NW winds through the day. A ridge of High pressure over the Atlantic on Saturday should give a drier interlude next Sunday. GEM tonight shows no relief of note within it's output period with intense Low pressure with attendant severe gales and rain give way to further unsettled weather with rain and showers at times thereafter. rather cold weather with snow on the hills next weekend will probably give way to slightly milder weather as we enter Week 2. NAVGEM also shows little signs of change next weekend with any rise of pressure limited or muted in the face of further troughs and rain at times to end the run early next week. ECM tonight shows the unsettled period lessening as we move into next week as at long last something of a ridge moves up from the SW pushing the rain bearing systems on more of their usual route towards Iceland and affecting the NW most while the South and East see something of a much more meaningful respite. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show an improvement to those of late but not as good as i would like to see to guarantee drier weather over the UK. The charts both show a bias towards Low pressure to the NW and an unstable SW flow over the UK enabling further rain bearing troughs to cross the UK from the SW at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows no change to the flow this week, maintained in it's current position South of the UK. Through Week 2 the flow buckles and becomes much more ill defined with time with no coherent pattern indicated. In Summary tonight there is still an element of improvement still shown from some output, more notably from GFS and ECM. We must remember though we are talking about periods of time outside of the reliable time period still and it won't be until we are nearing midweek that we need the above improvements to still be shown, by which time they can be taken more seriously. In the mean time there is another week or so of misery and more heavy rain and indeed snow for some to get through which is far from welcome before 'maybe' we can look forward to something better.

Not sure if today's relief is going to be that significant in my area today. I have had 12mm of rain since midnight, far more than yesterday's 3mm.

It's amazing how local topography and wind direction can change situations in any one place. Yesterday was nowhere near as bad in my locality than was expected. Yes it was very windy and gusty but my Max gust was 47mph in the evening. With regard to rainfall as I predicted here yesterday morning we faired very well with just passing scuds of rain from decaying showers as they whizzed through. Yet 12 hours later and a wind shift to the West has led to a thoroughly wet night here with incessant showers and a cold raw West wind has given me 12mm since midnight and probably more to come through the day. I also witnessed some sleety bits hitting the windows a while back. If only we were 1000ft higher asl. Just one look at the cloud movements around the UK and the North Atlantic indicate what turmoil the atmosphere is in with swirling fronts and depressions all over the place some in cold air. http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

Good morning everyone. Here is the latest instalment of the output issued by the NWP at midnight on Sunday February 9th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show Low pressure over Northern Scotland filling slowly with the strong Westerly flow weakening steadily with the attendant showers becoming less frequent and heavy than through the recent days. Through tonight an tomorrow Low pressure to the South makes for very slack winds across the UK with some showers still, possibly wintry over the hills but some dry, bright weather too. By Tuesday an active trough crosses East with more heavy rain, strong winds and hill snow in the North followed by a cold and showery westerly flow on Wednesday, strong again with gales in the west and snow showers over the hills. GFS then shows that on Thursday a further vigorous depression is expected to cross East over the heart of the UK with gales and heavy rain with showers on Friday and another strong depression next weekend with yet more rain and gales. Through the lower resolution part of the run this morning's operational shows that further Low pressure brings further rain at times but then a switch to colder, drier weather is shown as pressure rises, eventually strongest to the NE but this prevents much improvement lasting long in the SW as Low pressure troughs buffers the block to the NE with further rain and perhaps snow. The GFS Ensembles show reasonable support for a lessening in the rain amounts through the second half of the run though most members continue to show some while the colder operational run is a little isolated with most members preferring to show pressure rises from the South more likely to be responsible for the lessening rainfall with milder air. UKMO today shows next weekend with Low pressure positioned over Southern England with plenty of unsettled weather around with rain, prolonged at heavy at times over all areas in temperatures close to or somewhat below normal especially in the North. GEM also has Low pressure over Southern Britain next weekend with rain and showers revolving around it affecting all areas with more rain and showers and perhaps snow on hills. Through the remainder of the run the Low fills but is replaced by yet another centre down near the SW at the end of the run with further rain and showers, once more most prolific towards the South and West. NAVGEM today also shows Low pressure well in control later in the week and next weekend with pressure trying to recover from the South, seemingly in vain as further fronts to the West supercede it in it's quest bringing more rain East over the UK in Westerly winds and average temperatures. ECM today does show an improvement of sorts after next weekend as the fronts and Lows move further North still bringing rain at times for a while but as we move deeper into next week a drier period looks likely as High pressure over France promotes a drier interlude. It doesn't look like lasting long though as Low pressure in the Atlantic may push this drier weather towards the NE while Low pressure moves SE towards the SW bringing a return to rain to these areas soon after termination of the run. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts this morning show broad support for a pressure rise to be achieved from the South just over a week from now. With probable pressure approaching 1020mbs across the South it may not be quite enough to erradicate rain bearing fronts entirely down here with even less chance towards the North as Low pressure is likely to lie somewhere to the NW but it could well slow the amomounts of rain substantially to at least commence the chance of some draining of flood waters in afflicted parts of the South. Within this pattern temperatures could be rising too as winds remain lighter and from the SW. The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow unchanged over the next week before it weakens and buckles North across the UK with perhaps more of a NE flow across the UK or to the NW late in the output. In Summary today there remains reasonable support for marginal improvements to begin to take shape in just over a week's time as the procession of deep Low's crashing into the UK is pushed further North by a Jet Stream weakening and changing the orientation of it's flow NE to allow pressure rises to take shape from the South. In the mean time this week will produce many more headaches as further heavy rain, gales and even snow could all give problems at times. The weather will likely become drier if not entirely dry with some sunshine and temperatures recovering to average or perhaps slightly above. This improvement being quite a way out is not a done deal and there are still likely to be changes in the projections good or bad through the outputs of the upcoming week.

Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the 12z outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday February 8th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a deep depression near Northern Ireland drifting North through Scotland tomorrow and away to the North thereafter filling steadily. A very showery period is to come with some heavy and thundery showers in places but with some drier spells too, these becoming more prevalent through Monday. On Tuesday a vigorous trough looks like tracking East over the UK with squally winds and heavy rain sweeping East followed by further showers. GFS then shows further unsettled weather thereafter as the blustery Atlantic theme continues with further vigorous Lows delivering further spells of rain and gales towards the end of next week and weekend. Through the latter stages tonight the theme is still generally an unsettled one but with a little more in the way of drier weather possible between rain bouts later. The GFS Ensembles show a reduction in rain amounts later in the run but until then it's more of the same from most members with rain and showers at times. There is a lot of spread between the members later in the run. UKMO tonight shows complex Low pressure over the West of the UK later next week with further rain at times in less strong winds than of late and with temperatures close to average. The rain could be heavy in places especially towards the west and South-west. GEM maintains very unsettled conditions tonight throughout the final section of it's run with strong winds and heavy rain at times continuing to dominate the UK weather. A ridge of High pressure does edge in from the West at Day 10 to bring a temporary respite from the wet of late. NAVGEM shows next weekend as unsettled and probably a little chilly with Westerly winds decreasing with time but continuing to feed occasional rain and showers across the UK with snow on hills of the North. ECM tonight tries it's hardest to get us into something a little drier and more average instead of the extreme conditions that has afflicted the UK for so long now. We have another week or so before such improvements become apparent due to Low pressure moving to more Northerly latitudes taking the heavier rain and windier conditions with them. The Jet Stream Summary shows the flow remaining in an Eastwards motion across the Atlantic and through France and Spain. Through Week 2 the flow shows signs of migrating Northward over the British Isles. In Summary tonight the weather remains generally quite unsettled and windy with heavy rain and gales at times for the next week at least. There are some indications of a slow improvement through Week 2 as the pattern weakens and the Jet flow steers Low pressure areas further North. I get the feeling though that improvements at a meaningful level are going to occur painfully slowly with many rocky roads to negotiate along the way and even probable setbacks.

I don't expect too much rain in my little patch today as with a direct SW feed the showers decay before reaching here. Bristol Channel coasts and English Channel Coasts are favoured spots today with hail and thunder a good possibility. May see a few more showers here after dark if winds veer more Westerly.

Good morning. Here is the latest production of the output of the NWP suite for the midnight outputs on Saturday February 9th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a very deep Low close to Northern Ireland drifting slowly north over Scotland through the next 24 hours before filling slowly on Monday. The weekend will be very windy with gales and severe gales with some disruption in exposure. There will be showers or spells of rain too, some heavy and thundery with hail, sleet and snow possible over the hills. The showers will die down along with the winds on Monday to give a quieter day overall with showers restricted to the West and North. On Tuesday a further Low pressure looks to be moving in on a slightly more Northerly trajectory keeping the very strongest winds towards the NW while all areas see another spell of rain followed by showers. GFS then takes us into midweek with a nasty disturbance running East close to the South with heavy rain and possible local gales before the trend later in the week for continued unsettled and sometimes wet and windy weather as Low pressure areas park to the NW of the UK with a broad SW flow across all areas. Then through next weekend winds are shown to veer NW with wintry showers for a time before something of a North/South split develops with the North seeing further rain at times as troughs cross East while the South sees a lot of dry and bright weather close to High pressure to the South giving some welcome relief to those flooded areas towards the SW. The GFS Ensembles show a wet week to come before a reduction in rainfall amounts is shown as Low pressure migrates slowly North to allow longer dry periods between the bouts of rainy weather. Temperatures stay largely as they are with some members going for something rather milder in the South later. UKMO this morning is very poor with Low pressure again shown to be poised close to the West and SW with another spell of gales and rain hitting the UK next Friday following an unsettled couple of days before with showers for most. GEM remains unrelenting in the passage of Low pressures across the Atlantic and over the UK with rain and gales still featuring for all areas with heavy rain too at times giving rise to further flooding problems. NAVGEM today keeps a deep Low pressure complex to the North of the UK with smaller disturbances running East in the Westerly flow, affecting mostly Southern areas with more prolonged rainfall between the frequent showers maintained elsewhere. ECM too shows a very unsettled and potentially stormy end to next week as another powerful storm system crosses over on Friday. thereafter there is a slight suggestion that the position of the depressions will shift a couple of hundred miles further North but conditions at the surface will remain volatile with wind and rain featured highly though the heaviest rain and strongest winds may favour the NW rather than SW with time. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show that in 9 and 10 Days time the bias from the ECM ensemble group today is still an unsettled one for the UK but the bias shifts the core of Low pressure much more to the NW of the mainland with a more mobile pattern of rain followed by showers of the less disruptive kind looking more likely with the NW seeing the most rainfall by then but unfortunately still some for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Summary is for the flow to continue unabated for another week or so across the Atlantic then East over France and Spain. Through the second week the flow is shown to buckle north over the Atlantic finally breaking down the pattern that has afflicted Southern Britain for so long with something rather drier very possible then. In Summary there is still a suggestion of a possible easing of conditions after next week mostly according to GFS and some of it's ensemble members as the Jet weakens and buckles North to the West. However, there seems little change to recent pattern from the likes of GEM, UKMO or NAVGEM in their end frames but ECM does show a slight shift North of the pattern towards the very end of it's run too. So another very wet and potentially stormy week to come before the trend towards the very worst of the weather to shift towards the North with time while the South sees something rather less extreme to a rather more traditional Atlantic Westerly is my prognosis this morning. Let us hope that High pressure can build North from Europe or the Azores to give much needed relief down here from recent events and hope that is not just a false dawn to be downgraded as it slips into the more reliable time frame.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday February 7th 2014. All models show a very deep depression approaching Ireland from the West tonight and carrying a set of fronts East across the UK with attendant heavy rain and increasingly strong winds. the rain will scoot through quite quickly so despite the rain being heavy it shouldn't last too long before clearer and showery weather follows well before dawn. Tomorrow shows a deep Low across Northern Ireland with severe gales and squally showers, perhaps with hail and thunder and snow on Northern hills. Through Sunday the storm system will move North and fill slowly with less windy but still showery weather which may well last into Monday too. By Tuesday a new storm system will be rattling in from the SW with further gales and heavy rain by midweek. GFS tonight then shows the rest of next week and weekend as further deep Low pressure areas spread wind and rain across the weekend on regular occasions, heavy at times and with strong winds too. In the low resolution part of the run though improvements do manifest themselves in the shape of a rare visitor to our shores of late known as High pressure which would bring a long awaited dry spells with the emphasis shifting from wind and rain to frost and fog with some sunshine by day. The GFS Ensembles still show a good deal of unsettled and windy weather to come but the best indication yet of some relief late in the run to something drier and brighter with less rainfall and wind. UKMO tonight shows another deep Low nearing NW Ireland next Thursday with yet more wind and rain spreading steadily North and East across the UK next Thursday with the likelihood of showers and blustery West winds soon after. GEM tonight shows further wet and windy spells in association with further Low pressure later next week and the weekend with winds slowly becoming lighter with time. NAVGEM closes next Friday with deep Low pressure over the UK with further rain at times, heavy and prolonged in places though probably with winds less strong. ECM does show some changes tonight as it moderates the depth of depressions next week and eventually rises pressure over Europe. The question is will it bring better weather for those areas that most need it and I think the answer is probably No. The rise in pressure to the SE eventually brings the prospect of warm moist air travelling North towards SW Britain and with Low pressure close by to the West heavy rain is still likely towards these areas. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts indicate little overall change to the basic pattern of Low pressure being up to the Nprth and NW with a SW flow likely over the UK with further rain at times in temperatures close to the seasonal average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Summary shows some signs of moving through Week 2 as it buckles and ridges Northwards at times disrupting the pattern of successive Low pressure areas moving East with fine interludes in between. In Summary tonight although the prospects are still well biased towards unsettled conditions continuing the very worst of the conditions may begin to ease as time passes over the second half of the output tonight. So after some more heavy rain and strong winds further rain at times is likely too later on though with time longer drier periods may begin to develop with rainfall less persistent than of late. Temperatures still do not look like straying far from the seasonal average with no more than hill snow possibilities in the North.

Good morning. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday February 7th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a deep depression moving in from the SW during tonight replacing the embers of the current one leaving the East. as a result a quieter day with scattered showers will occur today ahead of strong winds and rain arriving after dark. By tomorrow the Low pressure will move slowly NE across Ireland to Southern Scotland with severe gales and squally showers of rain and hail with thunder, sleet and snow locally, the latter mostly over the hills. This weather type will last through Saturday with just a limited reduction on Sunday as the Low drifts slowly North and begins to fill. By Monday a less windy and showery day seems likely with some longer drier interludes between the showers, still wintry on hills. On Tuesday it looks like another Atlantic storm system will be pushing in from the West with a band of heavy rain and strong winds sweeping East once more. GFS shows the midweek period as unsettled and sometimes wet and windy as further Low pressure areas or troughs steam across from the West, a process which continues repeatedly through the entire remainder of the run. Temperatures will remain close to average or maybe a little below in the North with some snow possible over northern hills at times as a result. The GFS Ensembles remain largely unchanged from previous samples with a very flat pattern from most members hugging the 30yr mean line with further spells of rain and showers on a Atlantic windflow. There is something of a reduction in rain quantities very late in the run. UKMO this morning shows next Thursday with one low exiting the NE of Britain while another approaches the West with a squally shower mix early in the day probably followed by a drier interlude before further rain and gales push in from the West later in the day. GEM shows little change in the grand scheme of things with Low pressure well in charge over and around the UK with further showers and longer spells of rain and strong winds at times in generally average temperatures overall. NAVGEM today remains alarmist for those looking for anxiously needed relief from flooded areas as further intense depressions could run into the UK late next week enhancing the high rainfall totals of late with strong winds too. ECM is little better with another vicious Low next Wednesday near Southern England threatening storm force winds and more definitely heavy rain across Southern britain to be followed more heavy rain and blustery westerly winds out to the end of the run. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little overall change with Low pressure still likely to be close to the North in 10 Days time with a Westerly flow with rain at times for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast shows no change this morning with the weakening shown of yesterday less apparent today with the flow continuing to pump East across the Atlantic and over Southern Europe throughout the run maintaining the breeding ground for further Low pressure areas to run into the UK from the west through the period. In Summary I have to say that the current spell of this extremely volatile weather pattern which has been going since December 12th is unprecedented with absolutely no definitive sign of improvements shown within the next two weeks from this morning's output. There is total cross model support for a continuation of often wet and windy weather with copious rainfall and damaging gales in the next week. There may be some moderation in wind strengths through week 2 but rainfall looks set to continue on with further disruption which I fear could cause total devastation over the SW part of my County should this morning's charts verify. None of the above is surprising when on my little patch alone over 450mm of rain has fallen this Winter so far. We need some dry weather soon or parts of the SW of the UK are going to become a disaster area with major infrastructure consequences and life threatening lifestyle changes.

Personally can't see much snow for South-west England on Tuesday. Just more of what we just don't need. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000

The met Office 120hr fax says it all for me tonight. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000

Good evening everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Thursday February 6th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a Low pressure area tracking NE across Southern England with outbreaks of rain, heavy in places continuing through the night. By morning the Low is shown to move out into the North Sea with a fine interlude developing tomorrow as we lie between pressure systems. Tomorrow evening though shows a new powerful depression sweeping into Ireland from the SW bringing an active set of fronts with it with more gales, heavy rain and increased risk of flooding once more. Following the rain will be severe gales and heavy showers in Westerly winds with coastal defences in the West and South put to the test once more. This windy and showery theme continues through the weekend as the Low responsible drifts to the North of Scotland by Monday. GFS then show the start of next week bright and showery to begin with before the rest of the week sees further troughs and Low pressure systems passing through, each delivering more wind and rain across the UK in average temperatures though perhaps rather chilly in the North at times with hill snow. Later in the lower resolution part of the run there remains little concrete evidence for improvements with further Low pressure areas passing over the UK with rain and showers separated by short drier interludes. Temperatures never look like straying far from average with little in the way of frost and fog. The GFS Ensembles remain very stable and keeping temperatures close to average with all members keeping very unsettled conditions with rain at times going throughout the period for all areas. UKMO tonight looks disturbing, especially early in the week again as yet another vicious storm system whips across Ireland on Tuesday with a strong and showery Westerly flow on Wednesday with further embryonic systems shown out to the SW for later in the week. GEM remains unrelenting in it's projection of further deep depressions and attendant rain and strong winds crossing the UK in the final days of it's 10 day run with temperatures close to average but cold enough at times for some snow on Northern hills. NAVGEM is awful tonight showing the most powerful storm yet crossing Wales and the Midlands midweek with storm force winds and heavy rain the likely events coupled with storm surges and the like as it tracks ENE before leaving the UK in strong Westerly winds and showers later in the week. ECM tonight takes the early week storm a little further North than it's counterpart models but nonetheless the pattern of heavy rain and strong winds remain the same with the model showing another storm further South at the end of the week before the run ends on a cold and unstable Westerly flow but less strong with showers, wintry on hills. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show Low pressure still likeely to be in control of the UK weather in 10 Days time with the majority of members indicatig a preference for Low pressure to be close to northern Britain with a Jet flow to the South and pressure over the UK sub 1000mbs. Rain at times would inevitably occur in South or west winds and temperatures near average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast shows little change tonight with a strong flow West to East across the Atlantic and then across Spain or France. there is still some indication of a weakening of the flow through week 2. In Summary there is little to cheer about in tonight's output with seemingly relentless supply of Low pressure systems crossing the Atlantic, each having the UK in their sights. As a result there will be copious amounts of rain and wind too at times causing further disruption from both flooding and wind damage through next week in particular. Signs of a quietening of conditions are still just about present within some longer term projections but if anything there seems little or even less support for this aside from a far end low resolution chart at Day 15 from GFS, a slackening pattern in the Day 10 chart (perhaps) from ECM and also hints of a slackening Jet flow in the GFS Ensembles.

Good morning folks. Here is todays look at the midnight releases of output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday February 6th 2014, taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show Low pressure filling to the North of the UK with another system moving up across Southern Britain later today and clearing out into the North Sea tonight. Sunshine and showers over the North today but heavy rain will again affect the South and East and will not clear until after midnight tonight. it will though be much less windy today. Tomorrow and the weekend sees a showery period tomorrow being replaced by another active Low pressure bringing a sequence of events similar to yesterday with gales and heavy rain replaced by showers over the weekend. The rain will be heavy and the gales severe for further damage in places. Through the weekend it will feel cold and some of the showers could turn to snow over the hills though amounts away from the highest ground should not be problematic. GFS then shows next week as very unsettled yet again with further heavy rain and showers at times moving steadily West to East off the Atlantic and giving further snow over the hills. Later in this morning's operational run a change to High pressure finally arrives with drier or dry weather likely with a welcome respite for flood afflicted areas though occasional rain is still possible towards the NW at times in temperatures rather chilly with some frost at night. The GFS Ensembles show average temperatures prevailing over the two week period with further heavy rain at times though rainfall amounts are trending towards lessening somewhat later. UKMO this morning shows yet another deep Low swinging NE over the UK next Tuesday with yet another spell of heavy rain and gales with a sunshine and squally shower mix towards midweek in a strong Westerly flow. However one cannot fail to notice yet another depression in the Western Atlantic already lying in wait to the far SW of Britain to affect the UK soon after midweek. GEM is very depressing again this morning with Low pressure totally dominant with small disturbances within the main Low complex centred near Britain keeping the risk of heavy rain and showers going. NAVGEM shows little change to the pattern we have become accustomed too with further Low pressure powered by a main Low pressure complex to the North with further heavy rain and showers to come. ECM today shows no let up in the procession of Low pressure piling in from the SW with further spells of heavy rain alternating with blustery and very strong winds and blustery showers. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little or no change to the pattern at Day 9 and 1O with the Jet flow well to the South with Low pressure likely to be just to or over the North of the UK with a UK based trough indicating the continuing prospect of further rain at times in average temperatures and winds between South and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows an unrelenting path East across the Atlantic to the South of the UK. The flow is already strong and strengthens further at times which looks like maintaining the feed of deep depressions and heavy rain for the reliable future. Clutching at straws there are some hints of the flow moving slowly North late in the run but we have to remember this is the GFS prediction and is not a cross model prediction. In Summary this morning the weather remains extremely unsettled and often wet with heavy rain at times in a continuing feed of Low pressure areas moving across the UK from off the Atlantic. Strong winds will also be a feature at times giving it's own problems for some and in addition it may be cold enough at times for some snowfall, especially on Northern hills though in the grand scheme of things this is of little consequence in comparison to the other major disruption down in the SW currently. GFS does hint at a slow shift north of the Jet Flow in Week 2 possibly allowing less rainfall in the South over the week after next but such improvements look very tentative again this morning and will need to be supported by the other longer term models from GEM and ECM when it falls within their time restraints before we can begin to become more confident on a possible change.

Good evening everyone. Here is the next instalment of the volatile atmosphere present across the UK at the moment and in the near future as seen by the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM tonight for today Wednesday February 5th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models continue to predict more rain and strong winds over the coming week as further very deep and powerful depressions affect the UK periodically. Today's storm will gradually weaken as it drifts North over the UK with a quieter period of weather for 12 hours or so develops from later tonight. By lunch tomorrow a new depression moves up from the South engaging some tropical air and enhancing the heaviness of the rain which once more moves up across the South and Wales by late afternoon. This rain could well enhance flooding before it clears away NE overnight. Friday is shown to be a bright, breezy and showery day before another storm, similar to today's version moves quickly into the UK later Friday with severe gales and more heavy rain sweeping in overnight and lasting well into Saturday. The weekend then sees the Low slow moving near Northern Britain with a gale Westerly flow with squally showers likely over the UK. Throughout this very active period temperatures will be academic but close to average but it could be cold enough at times in the North for some snow on the hills. GFS shows the opportunity for further spells of rain and showers, heavy and prolonged at times and accompanied by gales as further deep Low pressure moves across from the west at times. Later in the run there is a glimmer of light to report tonight in as much as pressure will be slightly higher and there will be some drier windows between the rain later. The GFS Ensembles continue to make for disturbing viewing as there remains little prospect shown by any member of any significant drier spell with further rain on most days under Low pressure areas moving in from the West and SW. Temperatures continue to be programmed to be close to average overall with still little sign of anything colder of note. UKMO closes it's run tonight with an unstable SW flow next Tuesday with showers giving way to more prolonged rain through the day as another active trough swings in from the West. GEM tonight is unrelenting in it's quest to maintain the UK under the grip of Low pressure with a large cold pool of Low pressure over many areas later next week with some powerful deeper Lows near to the warmer air to the South fueling further spells of heavy rain and strong winds. NAVGEM is we hope incorrect tonight but probably entirely feasible in it's projection of a Low crossing England next Wednesday at what would be a near record Low pressure of 945mbs bringing all the disruption and devastation that such a storm could produce before it moves away East but maintaining gales and rain at times. ECM this evening shows further unsettled and wet weather at times next week. It does show a deceleration of the pattern though with longer drier spells between the rain areas through the second half of next week. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show once more that the likely position that the UK will find itself 10 days from now remains much the same with Low pressure influential to the UK weather with a SW flow maintained around low pressure to the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast remains very concerning as it shows absolutely no sign of weakening in the reliable time frame tonight maintaining it's position west to east over the Atlantic and across France and Spain breeding powerful depressions and storm systems one after another as it speeds across the Atlantic. Even at the far end of the run in two weeks time changes are minimal and unlikely to change anything dramatically over the UK. In Summary the weather remains largely unsettled and potentially stormy at times according to much of tonight's output. There are some encouraging signs of something at least a little drier late next week as the pattern slows and longer drier spells may be encouraged to develop between the depressions. However, such signs are tentative at best and we have been down this road a week or so back before the rug was swept from under our feet so we need to see more consistency spread between the models over the coming days before anyone can become the least bit hopeful. Meanwhile between now and then the pain and misery goes on for those afflicted by floods for some considerable time to come I'm afraid.

Good morning. Here is today's report on the midnight outputs issued by the NWP for today Wednesday February 5th 2014 and copied across from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show an intense depression near Southern Ireland moving slowly North through today and slowly filling later. Severe Westerly gales are shown wrapped around the Southern flank of the Low with damage and disruption in places as heavy rain then showers continue. Conditions ease tonight and tomorrow before a new Low centre moves up towards Southern Britain with more heavy rain later in the day while the North stay showery. Then as that system moves away NE on Friday a new Low approaches Southern Ireland late in the day with renewed gales and heavy rain for many into the start of the weekend reverting to westerly gales and showers on Sunday as the Low moves up towards Scotland. GFS then shows very unsettled weather lasting throughout next week as pressure remains very Low over the UK. As shown today the operational run does indicate rather lighter winds which would remove one disruptive part of the weather but heavy rain will continue to be a feature at time through the week. Then in the far reaches of the run the weather remains unsettled with spell of rain and showers mixed with some drier and brighter periods developing in temperatures somewhat lower at times. The GFS Ensembles remain disturbing with no let up shown in the Atlantic pattern as Low pressure system after system rattle into and over the UK from the West with spells of rain and showers nationwide in temperatures almost totally indicated as close to the long term mean. UKMO shows next Tuesday as totally Low pressure dominated with individual centres all over the UK and the North Atlantic with further rain and showers at times with some snow possible over the hills at times as temperatures fall somewhat. GEM is also very unsettled looking with Low pressure in total domination too from this model with spells of rain and showers rattling on from the West next week keeping all the disruptive issues currently present possible again then. NAVGEM is not available this morning. ECM today shows Low pressure well in control again next week with further spells of rain and squally showers in strong West and SW winds and temperatures close to average. Again this morning the Day 10 frame while still looking very unsettled hints at something a little drier arriving from the West albeit probably briefly as a ridge of High pressure moves across the UK in the days that follow the term of the run. The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean Charts indicate to me that the likelihood for the weather in 9 and 10 Days time will show only modest changes with the high chance that we will remain influenced by Low pressure just to or close to Northern Britain with wet and windy weather continuing at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast maintains a strong and relentless flow running East over the Atlantic on a collision course with France continuing to spawn large storm systems over and close to the UK. Any changes late in the run point towards a slow weakening and buckling of the flow but these are small scale hints and very distant. In Summary today the weather remains in a very unsettled state with further spells of rain and wind for all, especially over the next week. there are modest signs of something a little quieter in Week 2 but rain will still never be far away with flooding issues still a problem for many. Temperatures remain no problem given the time of year with little frost and ice though the incidence of snowfall could increase somewhat over the hills with time.

Good evening. Here is another look at the outputs from the NWP, this time from the 12 noon outputs for today Tuesday February 4th 2014 and lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show very unsettled conditions through the period covered by tonight's output. Intense Low pressure currently moving in towards the UK from the SW will bring severe gales and locally storm force winds with heavy rain followed by squally showers over tonight and tomorrow. By Thursday a new Low threatens Southern Britain with yet more heavy rain with the North escaping from this feature and maintaining a more showery regime. Later on Friday and the weekend sees yet another major storm system rattle in from the Atlantic with a repeat performance of tonight and tomorrow's sequence of events. Through the period temperatures will remain close to average overall offset by the strength of the wind but there could be some colder interludes especially over the North when some of the precipitation may fall as snow. GFS then shows next week as being little different to this one with incessant Low pressure sending spells of rain and showers across the UK in winds somewhat lighter than this week as a small consolation. Temperatures will remain largely close to average but it will steadily turn colder later as High pressure builds to the North and finally cuts off the Atlantic feed for a time at least. The GFS Ensembles show a slight drying process later in Week 2 but until then the same weather patterns prevail with further disruption likely. Temperatures continue to show little deviation from levels currently being experienced. UKMO shows next Monday to be continuing unsettled and wet as the charts show the UK surrounded and covered in Low pressure areas each bringing the risk of sustained heavy rain and showers in close to average temperatures. GEM tonight remains every bit as turbulent as this morning's model run with Low pressure areas continuing to wind their way across the UK from the Atlantic and keeping the regular occurrences of wind and rain going. NAVGEM also shows little relief next week as the proximity of Low pressure is close by with further rain and showers in blustery and sometimes strong winds. ECM is about as ugly and concerning as I think I can remember model watching with virtually all of the Atlantic, the UK and NW Europe covered in very Low pressure next week with separate centres moving East within the general complex each bringing their own spells of heavy rain and occasional gales in average temperatures or maybe somewhat below in the North. The last day of the run shows a little light at the end of the tunnel as the procession of Low pressure is slowed giving somewhat drier gaps in a still basically unsettled period. The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean Charts show a continuation of the theme of the last fw days with most members within the ensemble group showing Low pressure close by to the NW of Britain and maintaining inclement conditions in SW winds and copious rain at times. There is little support for the cessation of the train of Low pressure indicated by the operational run unfortunately. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows the flow unrelenting in it's quest as it moves East strongly over the Atlantic and across areas of Southern Europe for the reliable future. The only difference of note tonight is a weakening of the flow late in the run which does rub off on tonight's operational in weakening the Atlantic procession of Low pressure in about two weeks time. In Summary tonight there remains a lot of very unsettled and occasionally stormy weather to get through before we see a grain of hope for about 10-14 days time as there is a little indication of a weakening of the pattern late in the output tonight with rather more dry weather between the rain bands in somewhat less windy weather as we approach the second weekend. However, in the grand scheme of things this remains a distant straw to clutch in an otherwise depressing set of output again tonight.

Good morning everyone. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday February 4th 2014, the text lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models continue to paint a very disturbed period for the remainder of this week and the weekend for all areas as the never ending train of Low pressure crashing into the UK from the Atlantic continues. Today will see the first of these move up from the SW, deepening rapidly and bringing severe gales as well as heavy rain followed by showers though tonight and tomorrow. As this then moves slowly away North on Thursday a small but vigorous Low now looks like affecting the south later on Thursday and Thursday night with further heavy rain and gales in the SE before Friday sees yet another powerful depression move in from the SW to affect all areas over the weekend with further rain and gales for all over the weekend. GFS then shows next week with very little improvements as further Low pressure moves up from the West or SW regularly with further rain and showers and strong winds. It may not turn out quite as wet though with some brighter intervals at times and there may be somewhat less wind too but it is unlikely that there will be any sustained dry and bright weather I'm afraid. The GFS Ensembles remain very disturbed this morning with most if not all members showing a sustained period of rain and wind continuing in broadly West or SW winds around Low pressure areas moving in from the West throughout. Temperatures are likely to remain broadly close to average over the UK. UKMO this morning starts next week with a deep low pressure area to the North of Scotland with a broad Westerly flow across the UK carrying blustery showers across the UK next Monday with the potential for further more prolonged rainfall looking likely too from the West over following days. GEM in it's latter stages keep the UK under attack from multi centre low pressure areas keeping the trend for further spells of rain and showers, heavy at times very much alive next week too with average temperatures overall. NAVGEM also shows a broad westerly flow to start next week with winds backing SW at the end of the run as something of a weak ridge dampens down some of the rain by Tuesday as a weak ridge moves across from the West. ECM is again unrelenting in it's prognosis of further deep Low pressure well in control of the UK weather next week too ending with Low pressure still sweeping onto the SW from the Atlantic with further gales and rain sweeping into the UK next Friday. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts remain unchanged in their prognosis that the likelihood of our weather will still be governed by Low pressure centred over or to the NW of the UK in 9 and 10 Days time with further copious periods of rain and showers likely for all in winds between South and West and average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream remains one of the factors giving rise to such disturbed UK weather as it continues to blow very strongly over the Atlantic towards France and Southern Britain with little reliable indications supporting any major pattern change shown once more today. In Summary today the weather remains extremely and exceptionally unsettled. For me it's the longest and most volatile Atlantic period of weather that I can ever remember and it is still looking relentless over all output issued this morning covering the next few weeks. So as a result I can only predict more rain, gales and flooding disruption to be expected over the next week or two with only very short drier interludes at times. The NE will probably see the best of these with the heaviest rains and flooding issues again most likely in the Southwest adjacent to the strong and disruptive SW winds at times. Temperatures overall will be close to average but there will be some colder slots in between the depressions when the showers could contain snow over the hills.