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Gibby

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Everything posted by Gibby

  1. Interestingly Day 10 Verification Stats show GFS outperforming ECM currently. Quite unusual. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
  2. Here in the West Country there is 98% humidity and no wind which is translating to thick fog this morning, even down here in the village. Temperatures have risen 13C in 36 hours to stand at 9.9C currently. A murky old day likely too but at least the heavier rain of yesterday has passed. I see we are the only part of Europe not in the freezer this morning with some very impressive low temperatures over there. As for the future well the less said the better in my eyes. A chilly NW to North flow could give us a shot of Winter for a few days late in the week before any pressure rise is suppressed towards the South and SE bringing back milder West winds in Week 2. Any thaw in most of Europe looks unlikely until then when and if High pressure moves to our SE then even over there the cold could be pushed back towards Eastern Europe. That's a long way off though and open to change.
  3. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif I get slated a lot over on MOD for my use of this chart but I find it very useful when followed daily. On tonight's offering I think a lot can be read from that chart that is different than it's shown for days. Those that follow this chart a slow trend has been picked up over the last few days which has led to tonight's offering. For weeks it has shown High pressure over or to the South or West of the UK. In recent days it has shown High pressure slipping further SW and a strengthening gradient to the West or NW flow indicating a lot of members support such an evolution. More importantly the Jet Stream has repeatedly been positioned further and further South in relation to the UK to the extent that tonight it lies with a mean position South of the UK meaning a better but not guaranteed chance of colder conditions lying on the cold side of the Jet as we do at Day 10. I have told my followers on Facebook tonight that I am becoming increasingly confident of a stronger and more unstable WNW flow across us with rain and showers possibly turning wintry at times later next week as a result. I mention nothing more than that at the moment to see how the models develop this clear trend in the next few days.
  4. Oh I think many over there have much more knowledge than me Karl as I state in my post above. In no way was I making any personal dig but it really becomes a bit mundane when trying to find a straightforward insight into what the models are showing instead of wading through pages of nothingness. The ensembles you mention certainly do act as a guide of course but I feel some members over there do read into them what they want to see and report it in a way that comes across that it's going to verify when in fact they are often as volatile as the operationals. On tonight's efforts I notice the ECM Mean Chart has the UK on the cold side of the Jet come Day 10 and that should mean that there are many colder polar maritime air types within its ensembles blowing in on a stronger and much more unstable airflow from the West or NW towards the end of next week. That's a step forward for ECM over recent weeks. Lets see how it develops and whether the air becomes deep enough and cold enough to benefit the SW as well as the more usual suspects in the north and west. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
  5. I think those that are knowledgeable get blinded by their own science. The way some of them talk I am bewildered why they aren't working for the Met Office with their talk in such technical terms that most people including me just don't understand. Then there are those that post seemingly all day at this time of year but disappear in the Summer when the chance of that elusive flake of snow disappears.. Then there are those that hunt every minute of the day for that flake of snow to fall on Day 13 or whatever they totally miss the weather that they purport to be interested in. Anyway for the here and now there looks to be less chance of frost tonight. I'm currently sitting at 3.3C with a gentle wind from the WNW and a lot of clear skies still surprisingly.
  6. Nothing in the models to excite me at the moment so I leave them to waffle on. While it looks like it might become a bit wetter, windier and more unsettled in Week 2 its unlikely to my eyes that a WNW or NW flow will do much for us down here in the SW-Just cool and breezy with a few showers and occasional night frosts. The problem remains the continuation of stubborn persistence of High pressure out to the SW of us throughout. On the MOD thread they get excited every day about FI charts and new trends which dissolve in the next run. Then there are those that bang on about the ensembles etc and how accurate a guide they can be. What about those ensembles of Christmas time which were all pointing towards cold icy weather for the UK from about now...I wonder. I can sum it all up for the next few weeks by saying 'There will be no big freeze across the UK in the next week to 10 days at least let alone the SW. Why? There are no definitive signs from within the models as at present that winds and pressure systems will change to a more favourable position for the SW to get notable cold and snow until the second half of January at least.
  7. Despite the wild switches in the output of the models this chart has remained largely steadfastly constant over the last week to 10 days with just minor changes day to day. It's been proven to be largely right over the last 10 days and I see no driven reason why we won't remain in a largely benign weather pattern with winds between SW and North over the next 10-14 days due to High pressure just to the SW as this mornings offering shows. It never has showed an Easterly or a strong enough Northerly over the last 10 day period to support the musings of the operational and other permutations almost each run has shown since Christmas especially from GFS. If I was to use the data from each run to my local community my credibility on my local website and Facebook page would reduce to zero in no time. I'm confident that the first half of January will see no marked cold with frosts and a gentle wind from a West or NW point with a lot of cloud at times with little rain or snow- all based on the mean chart illustrated below-in other words the main message I've maintained since Christmas. Sorry 'coldies' but that's how I see it and that from a no bigger snow fan than me. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
  8. Today has I hope been a steep learning curve for 'newbies' entering Winter Model watching for the first year. For the rest of you 'well we've been here before.' It's hard not to be driven by the excitement of each operational run from each model and yes there has and still is reasonable optimism for a cold spell to come but lets face the facts. We live on an island on the Eastern end of a large ocean where the prevailing wind is SW. To get cold in this country all the dice have to fall on 6 and as the amount of significant cold snowy weather spells in the last 200 years leaving aside Global changes etc are minimal so its odds on that even with all models looking severe in 10-14 days time the odds of it actually happening are better compared to how many times it has actually happened in the past. Back on topic and for what it's worth the ECM 10 Day Mean Chart has changed little since this morning whereas the operational has. Another reason why I use this chart on my Facebook Kilmersdon Weather Page Forecasts and not the operational. It's worked for me so far as I don't have to suffer the wild changes that each operational throws at me hence I don't over react. On tonight's forecast I have given my verdict on the next two weeks weather encompassing the upcoming cold spell or not based on what I've seen collectively today. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
  9. Now even I'm getting more interested. This chart is much more what I've been looking for even better as it comes from my preferred model. Note the undercut out of the states can only go under the High because of its blocking attributes further North than recently. Further out charts would probably show a Southerly positioned Jet flow across the Atlantic towards Iberia which could feed a battleground scenario from the SW longer term. A long way out but this chart offers a real chance of a substantial cold outbreak from that setup. Let's hope the ensembles later show a shift towards a similar evolution and this better orientation and position of the High pressure is maintained over up and coming runs. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
  10. In my reports and forecasts to my local folk on my Kilmersdon Weather Facebook page I only use the ECM for my forecasts and since I started using it since it's upgrade I have found it very accurate including the controversial mean chart folks here diss. Discounting GFS and to some degree UKMO to some degree is a dangerous game for forecasting I know but I havent found ECM to have let me down as yet. I don't buy into this cold period other than for the first few days of 2017 as ECM for some runs now have kept heights too high to the South with the form horse increasingly preferring a return to milder Atlantic Westerlies and some rain alternating with colder polar maritime NW'lies. I know many of you don't like the mean chart but I do and this mornings offering is very poor if it's cold snowy weather your looking for and lo and behold it is largely borne out by the ensembles.
  11. Cloudy and grey this morning. All frost thawing. Currently 1.2C
  12. In answer to your questions. 1) Yes. 2) Not sure. 3) Yes. 4) Yes The Model output thread is for the brave and while there's a few who offer some good constructive posts there's a lot who think the UK is situated in the plains of Russia where only snowmageddon exists in weather terms and anything less than the charts show is wrong or a bad run. The thing that baffles me is that SW England over the last few days has seen the coldest period since 2010 and that goes totally unnoticed simply because 'snow' has not been part of this spell or that people have been looking at charts 240hrs+ for the elusive snowflake while cold weather has been going on outside under their noses. The so called 'faux' cold that this is means not a jot to most folk. All they care about is that It's damn cold outside and to have 3 solid days with unthawed frost in late November is not to be sniffed at anywhere in the UK let alone the SW. This might not be a memorable spell for snow seekers but most everyday folk think that it's been a noteworthy cold spell as it's meant de-icing cars etc etc day and night which is all the general public remember. For the third night in a row temperatures are in excess of -3C here in Kilmersdon with three days of hoar frost lying unthawed in shaded areas all day let alone night. Get a grip folks this is almost as good as it gets in a standard UK Winter.
  13. Here's the extent of the freezing fog over the region at the moment. Stark contrasts around because of this in the space of a few miles. Here still in the sun the temperatures are around 5C. In the foggy bits near freezing and gloomy..
  14. Very chilly here in Kilmersdon at -6.8C in the last hour. Managed to avoid the freezing fog though. I too don't dare go into the model discussion thread anymore. Too much hype over phantom T240+ hrs charts and over analysis. The weather will make an a** of all of us including weather models but for me it is definitely going to become milder next week. My own 2 Week thoughts can always be found on the below link without the hype at http://norton-radstockweather.co.uk/extended-2-week-forecast
  15. -4.2C here in Kilmersdon Village currently. An average daily temperature below zero is not to be sniffed at in November.
  16. Maxed out here at 4.7C at exactly 2:00pm. My lowest last night was -6.4C but a cracking old fashioned style winter day has followed, one that has been missing all too much in recent years. Looks like plenty more to come in the coming weeks.
  17. A stunning day out there. Just 3C and stunning visibility and skies.
  18. Yes I'm pretty certain that I will breach -6C tonight that's providing fog and/or low cloud stays away.
  19. Well here in the valley of Kilmersdon the temperature did drop rapidly after midnight with calm conditions and a current low of -4.6C. A beautiful start though with gin clear skies.
  20. I'm inclined to agree or at least agree in as much that temperatures might not be as low as previously thought. The wind having dropped towards dusk has picked up if anything with gusts to 10mph. Still 3.0C in Kilmersdon currently but it does feel cold out there.
  21. Yes you could be right. Interestingly the temperature rose a bit between 5 and 6 as the breeze picked up a bit. Currently at 3.6C but it was 2.6C at 5:30pm
  22. I think there is a strong chance of thunder in some of the showers tomorrow, especially areas adjacent to the Bristol Channel and perhaps across the Mendip plateau as the air aloft is cold and deeply unstable. Not unusual for a showery Westerly in Autumn/Winter when sea temperatures are still high promoting deep convection. It is unlikely to be a widespread feature though.
  23. I think the problem as always on these forums Ian is that anything less than the holy grail (i.e. Widespread snowfall) falls short of the mark for most.
  24. Definitely a stand off between the Euros and the Americans this morning. My full thoughts are on my website but I have banked my money on the Euros having a better handle on things at the moment. If only it was one or two months time.
  25. Grey and overcast with the overnight fog moved up to the higher ground this morning. Currently 10C. Very light SW winds.
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