Gibby

Take the colour of the trees away and the skyline would have you think it's a July morning here in Kilmersdon this morning. Fine and sunny at 13C with a lighter SSW wind than yesterday and much less cloud. The webcam image available below dislays all.

Take the colour of the trees away and the skyline would have you think it's a July morning here in Kilmersdon this morning. Fine and sunny at 13C with a lighter SSW wind than yesterday and much less cloud. The webcam image available below dislays all.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY OCTOBER 28TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 29TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A cold front will move steadily SE across the UK today and tonight to become slow moving over Southern England tomorrow. A ridge of High pressure will move in across Northern Britain from the West tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Less mild and changeable weather with rain and showers at times mostly in the North at first extending to all areas later. Some short drier and cooler periods are possible too. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream currently across NW Britain weakens over the coming days as a High pressure ridge buckles the flow North around the UK. It then ridges North over the Atlantic and then dives South over the UK to set up a Low pressure trough over the UK next week with the flow to the South then. A simplified West to East flow easing North over the UK is then shown later in Week 2. GFS Today's operational run shows Low pressure moving ENE close to NW Scotland over the coming weekend with increasingly unsettled weather already over the North finding it's way down across Southern Britain too over the weekend. After a short cool interlude early next week thereafter we see changeable conditions under a Westerly flow, strong at times with some transient ridges of High pressure bringing occasional brighter and drier spells in between the bands of rain. Brief cooler periods under the ridges continue to be possible but generally fairly mild conditions are shown to persist. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles differ on two aspects from the operational in a general agreeance on the basic theme. Firstly the very unsettled phase from the weekend is shown to last longer with colder air entrained to start next week before the predicted ridge moves in and lastly there is greater emphasis on mild amd less unsettled conditions over the South to occur towards the end of the run as High pressure builds up again towards the South and bathes the UK in mild SW winds yet again. UKMO. UKMO today shows Low pressure between Scotland and Iceland at the weekend moving East and maintaining a changeable West or WSW flow across the UK with all areas at risk of rain or showers at times with temperatures falling and returning to near average across the South. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show another marked and unseasonably mild warm sector developing over the UK later this week between Low pressure to the NW and High pressure over Europe. The Atlantic fronts then are shown to make inroads across the UK at the weekend with cloud and rain bringing a slight drop in temperatures over the mild South then. GEM GEM today shows a Westerly flow across the UK for the next 10 days or so once the current very mild SW flow finally loses it's grip over the South at the weekend. This will then ensure cloud and rain at times for all in strong winds mixed in with some brighter and showery weather. Temperatures will then be close to average over all areas. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows an unsettled phase at the weekend when the current very mild air finally gets pushed away from Southern Britain. Two or three days of rain at times in blustery West then NW winds then bring cooler air down across the UK next week as a ridge crosses the UK from the West. ECM . ECM really ratcheets up the Atlantic influence from this weekend as deeper Atlantic Low pressure streams in from the West at the weekend and becomes fed by reinforcements moving in from the West next week to set up a large and deep Low complex across the UK with strong to gale Westerly winds making it feel cool with plenty of squally heavy showers and longer spells of rain for all areas in temperatures no better than average by the end of the run. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles today show a typical Autumn pattern and while not as harsh with the extent of Low pressure as it's operational it does show Low pressure to the North of the UK, High pressure over the Azores and a broad and unstable westerly flow across the UK bringing spells of rain and showers to all areas with temperatures close to average. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is still for Atlantic driven weather to continue across the UK though with more risk of some heavy rain at times reaching the South of Britain too wth time in somewhat lower temperatures than of late. MY THOUGHTS Not much to say this morning that has not been said already as the theme of Atlantic driven weather remains through the next couple of weeks across the British Isles. However, one of the main differences in the weather will be the inclusion of Southern Britain to much more regularly join in with the wind and rainfall that the North has experienced over recent times. This will lower temperatures more towards the seasonal average as the air source becomes more North Atlantic based rather than from the Azores. In among the unsettled and changeable pattern will be some cooler and drier phases when overnight frost and fog patches could occur on a local basis. That leaves us two weeks from now with the weather still looking Atlantic driven from the long term models and as a result I can see little indication as yet that fog, frost and snow will feature in any notable way across the UK apart from the hills and mountains above 3000 feet.

Good morning folks. Here's my interpretation of how I see things today. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY OCTOBER 27TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY OCTOBER 28TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A very mild SSW flow will weaken slowly across the UK over the next 24-48hrs as a cold front near NW Scotland starts to move SE across the UK tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mild and changeable with rain and showers at times mostly in the North at first but extending to all areas later. Some short drier and cooler periods are possible too. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream blowing SW to NE across the North of Britain at the moment weakens over the coming days before ridging in an undulating pattern later this week at the same time as strengthening strongly. By next weekend the axis of the ridging flow lies over the Atlantic with the UK in a trough with the flow diving South to our West. Later in the run the flow is then shown to simplify in a basic West to East flow close to the UK. GFS. Todays operational run shows the current mild SW flow weakening temporarily midweek before reigniting later as the influence of a mid Atlantic depression takes hold later in the week. After a calm period rain and wind in mild Atlantic air returns by the weekend. Then the trough bringing this weather relaxes SE across the UK bringing a drier and cooler phase back early next week. The longer term charts then show a mobile Westerly flow setting up with deep Low pressure areas crossing West to East over the North delivering spells of rain and showers to all areas in average temperatures and strong winds at times. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles represent the theme and sequence of events shown by the operational well this morning even out into the longer and less reliable portion of the run. UKMO. UKMO today shows Low pressure to the NW and North taking more and more control of the UK weather with increasingly stronger winds for all and rain for all too at times in a broad Westerly flow with temperatures slowly falling back to more average levels with time. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a trough moving SE across the UK over the next few days ahead of a temporary rise of pressure in colder air over the North. Later in the week troughs are shown to return North and slowly East as Low pressure in mid Atlantic begins to take control in a return of mild SSW winds to all areas. GEM today shows a similar theme already documented within the aforementioned models though the High pressure belt remains a little closer to the South next week. While all areas look like becoming unsettled and windy with rain at times as usual the heaviest rain will still fall more prolifically towards the North and West. NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a drift towards Low pressure driven weather to the North late this week and next weekend before a strong ridge moves East from the Atlantic towards the UK to start next week. ECM. ECM is also broadly similar in theme with the usettled weekend to come under strong Westerly winds bringing in lower temperatures and quiet weather for a time early next week as an ill defined ridge collapses across the UK. It will be much cooler a week from now with some sunshine by day but fog and frost at night before strong Westerly winds return by Day 10 with rain at times returning to all areas pf the UK later next week. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles today show the theme set by the operational is largely supported within it's ensembles so a period of more unsettled and cooler (not cold) weather is shown with rain at times on a generally westerly flow over next week. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is still for Atlantic driven weather to continue across the UK though with more risk of some heavy rain at times reaching the South of Britain too wth time in somewhat lower temperatures than of late. MY THOUGHTS There remains little evidence of anything particularly harsh in weather terms over the coming two weeks. With November arriving later this week it continues to look generally quite mild though probably not as much as currently over the South. Low pressure eventually looks like extending an influence to all parts of the UK by next weekend and an interlude of colder and drier weather with the risk of a couple of nights of frost and fog seem possible as a ridge crosses over from the West towards the middle of next week. However, the predicted Jet stream profile soon pushes the ridge away and Westerly winds return and predominate again through the rest of next week and up to the end of the period. With more of a Westerly element to this phase temperatures will be closer to average rather than above and it could become quite wet and windy at times over all areas but there seems little chance of anything attacking the UK from the North yet nor any large and long term High pressure area situating itself such that we could expect widespread cold weather with frost and fog. So another couple of weeks of generally average weather across the UK seems more than likely and needless to say that the usual areas of the NW who have seen copious rainfall of late will continue to do so but across the vast populous of the UK I don't see any disruptive weather to come yet which will be welcome news for those still recovering from last Winters floods down here in the SW and puts us on a better stead than at this time last year for those fearing a return of flooding returning down here this Winter.

Sorry for no report yesterday. I'm having problems at my website server so can only provide a link to website for my report currently. Hopefully resolved tomorrow. Anyway my report can be viewed here. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY OCTOBER 24TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY OCTOBER 25TH 08:00 The General Synopsis. Troughs of Low pressure will clear slowly away East across Southern Britain today with further showery troughs in the NW blown in on very strong WSW winds. Two Week Headline. Mostly mild and changeable with rain at times especially in the North and West but with some short drier and brighter spells too especially in the South. The Jet Stream Forecast. The overall thrust of the Jet Stream over the coming two weeks continues to blow strongly from the West or SW across the Atlantic and the North of the UK for the foreseeable future. GFS Operational. Todays operational run shows mild SW winds largely in control over the UK over the coming week with a weakening of the flow for a time midweek as a decaying cold front slips SE over the UK. Some rain is likely for all as this change takes place with cooler conditions following on. However, by next weekend more Atlantic depressions re-invigorate energy from the SW with mild weather returning with rain towards the NW. Through Week 2 the trend is for a greater chance of cooler and more settled weather to slowly develop as higher pressure develops across the UK with mist and fog developing widely at night, probably slow to clear by day by the end of the run as winds fall light. GFS Ensembles. The GFS Ensembles are relentless in maintaining winds from a West or SW direction throughout the run this morning as the status quo of Low pressure to the North and NW and High to the South and SE persists. As a result the theme remains for generally mild and somewhat unsettled weather with the majority of rain and wind towards the North and West while the South and East sees decent dry and at times bright spells. UKMO. UKMO today shows a spell of slack winds towards midweek as a cold front clears SE. Rain would give way to fine and bright weather with mist and fog in places before mild South or SW winds pick up again later in the week with rain once more focused towards the Northwest. GEM. GEM today shows a mild SW flow backing Southerly later next week as a large Atlantic low becomes dominant. With time this is shown to extend further East and NE towards West and NW Britain with all areas becoming under increasing risk of rain and showers, heavy at times in mild SW winds. NAVGEM. NAVGEM shows a quieter period midweek as High pressure develops following a trough SE. Early rain clears to leave a dry and bright couple of days with cooler temperatures and overnight mists and fog. Thereafter a large Atlantic depression inches in closer to the UK strengthening the mild Southerly flow and delivering rain at times to most parts by next weekend. ECM. ECM follows this general theme as well with increasingly unsettled weather for all areas and not just the NW following the quieter period midweek when cooler weather could generate decent days but foggy nights for a time before the milder, unsettled and breezier weather returns later. There remains a hint of a pattern change right at the end of this run with much colder air waiting in the wings to the NW under higher pressure in the days that follow the end of the run. MY THOUGHTS. October is certainly going to end up a very much milder month than average, something which has been all very common through this year. In the coming few weeks the weather largely remains Atlantic based with High pressure to the SE and Low to the North and NW maintaining a broad scale North/South split in the weather. However, nothing in model analysis is as straightforward as that and there are a couple of intervals in this pattern when there is scope for something a little cooler. One such occasion is towards the middle of next week when a weakish area of High pressure could deliver a couple of cooler more quiescent Autumn days with a fog risk at night following a weakening cold front SE. Then as usual other chinks in this basic pattern appear far out in la la land with ECM the cream of the crop on Day 10 where Low pressure looks like eventually edging away to the East in the days that follow the run and allowing the chance of colder air from Iceland and the Arctic to drift down across the UK under rising pressure. However, having mentioned that it again is just one run in isolation and I see nothing in any ensemble data and Jet Stream prognosis to suggest that anything other that the large percentage of the next few weeks will remain mild and benign with the most rain and wind from autumnal Low pressure focused greatest towards the North and West while Southern and Eastern parts in particular see plenty of dry and bright weather with only more occasional lighter rainfall at times.

Cloudy but mild in light WSW winds this morning at 11.8C and 1020mbs

Cloudy but mild in light WSW winds this morning at 11.8C and 1020mbs

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY OCTOBER 23RD 2014. NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY OCTOBER 24TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A moist SW flow covers the British Isles with a cold front crossing SE over Scotland today and the rest of the UK tonight and tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times but some drier and brighter periods too more likely across the South. Near or slightly above average temperatures. Very windy at times especially in the North. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow continues to be programmed to blow in a SW to NE direction across Scotland over the coming days before it moves more directly West to East across the Atlantic and the North thereafter slowly sinking South with time towards Southern Britain. GFS The GFS operational today shows a continuing spell of Atlantic Westerly winds blowing across the UK throughout the coming two weeks between Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South. In the flow there are plenty of troughs shown with spells of rain at times for many but heaviest across the North and with the longer drier spells in the South. Occasional bursts of cooler and more showery conditions could affect the North at times otherwise mild weather remains the theme for the next two weeks today. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The Ensembles today point to a similar theme through Week 1 as it's operational but in Week 2 ratchets up the power of the Atlantic and Jet flow. It brings the Jet flow South and strongly too introducing some very potent storm systems across the UK with widespread gales and heavy rain with potential for damaging wind gusts at times. UKMO UKMO this morning has the UK under slack winds in the middle of next week with a lot of dry and bright weather and somewhat cooler than currently. Low pressure lies to the West and Southerly winds and milder air looks like returning late in the week with occasional rain. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a moist SW flow over the UK getting increasingly complex as cold fronts move SE over the next 24-36 hours. The fresher air following is then shown to be replaced by further strong and mild SW winds over the North and troughs queuing up to the West by the middle of next week. GEM The GEM operational this morning also maintains a long fetch SW feed across the Atlantic and the UK through it's run today with rain at times from rather active troughs affecting NW Britain at times. Some colder air is shown to filter into Northern Britain at times as exiting depressions clear East to the North and pressure builds across Southern Britain again later reducing the wind and rain amounts for all by then. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows mild SW winds across the UK being interrupted by cooler air moving down from the NW by midweek. A couple of days of bright and dry weather with mist and fog at night looks feasible for a time before Low pressure in mid Atlantic late next week returns mild South winds and occasional rain moving slowly east into the UK by the end of the run. ECM The ECM operational also shows the mild SW winds with rain at times in the North and West in particular. This model also shows cooler air filtering down across the UK for a time next week with mist and fog by night under the light winds then. By the end of the run though the pressure pattern becomes slack and complex with a trough moving slowly East slowly displacing yet another feed of mild SW winds for a time late next week and weekend. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is no definitive change in trend away from the mild outlook still shown by all models this morning. MY THOUGHTS Autumn 2014 continues in a generally quite mild theme with a lot of SW winds feeding NE across the UK from a long way South in the Atlantic. Low pressure is also in close attendance to Northern and Western Britain and it's here there could be some copious rain events at times while the South and East benefit from High pressure to the South often stretching in a belt from the Azores to Western Europe. The polar front will make some progress South at times to allow temporary cooler conditions down across the UK with this looking most likely towards the middle of next week before this is pulled away again by reinvigorated SW winds. Also in Week 2 the GFS Ensembles today show a major shift towards potentially very stormy conditions in Week 2 with severe or storm force winds a possibility if this model is to be believed. ECM on the other hand shows pressure trying to rise towards the NW at Day 10 and with a quieter Atlantic some cooler and more seasonal Autumn mists and fogs could give temperatures a boost down in the days that follow Day 10 but it is a long way off and is only one run. So in a nutshell there is little evidence of any shift towards anything particularly cold this morning with occasional ridges giving the chance of a day or two of cooler weather at times over the next few weeks. But for now the models overwhelmingly endorse that the weather remains quite locked in this mild and broad SW feed of winds stretching across the Atlantic and NW Europe between High pressure to the South and Low to the North and NW. Edit 09:30 Not a very inspiring ECM 10 Day Mean Chart either if it's cold your looking for. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

A dry and bright start and much less windy this morning. Currently 9.1C and 1027mbs

A dry and bright start and much less windy this morning. Currently 9.1C and 1027mbs

Some chinks of hope for 'coldies' this morning but a long way out currently. Nevertheless all cold spells have to start somewhere. Here's today's report. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 22ND 2014. NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY OCTOBER 23RD 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A Westerly flow is developing across the UK between Low pressure to the NW and High pressure to the South of the British Isles. Fronts will edge across the UK through the next 24-48hrs. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times but some drier and brighter periods across the South. Near or slightly above average temperatures. Rather windy at times in the North . THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow is developing in a West to East flow across the Atlantic from the Southern tip of Greenland to Northern Scotland over the next week before it slips further South over the Western side of the Atlantic and moves in a more NE direction over the UK later in the period. GFS The GFS operational today shows a continuation of the Westerly theme of weather around Low pressure to the North and High to the South of the UK. For much of this time a moist and mild SW flow will deliver bands of rain at times but short polar maritime incursions of air will interrupt this theme with colder and brighter conditions for a day or two before milder air returns. Rainfall amounts in the South should be small.. Late in the run a change in the pattern occurs as pressure builds quickly from the South across the UK before retrogressing to the NW of the UK feeding cold winds down from the North and NE. This would mean widespread fogs and then frosts with cold crisp days to end the run . THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The main part of this run is similar to the operational though the cold intervention of air at the end is not supported with the UK staying on the warm side of any rise in pressure from the South in continuing mild and damp Westerly winds through to the end of the run. UKMO UKMO this morning shows the UK yet again bathed in very mild and moderate SW winds early next week with High pressure close to the SE with cloud and some rain in the North and West while the South and East becomes largely dry and very mild in any brightness towards the SE . THE FAX CHARTS Warm sector conditions with cloudy and drizzly conditions will develop over the South in the coming days with less wind than of late. Cold fronts cross SE across Britain at the start to the weekend with some rain followed by a return to warm sector conditions again by the end of the period at 120hrs. GEM The GEM operational this morning keeps High pressure further at bay to the South and SE with deeper incursions of low pressure across Britain from the North from the weekend with rain and showers developing for all in strong winds at times especially in the North. With time too colder polar air becomes entrained in the airflows around the Low pressure over the North of the UK bringing colder conditions here gradually moving towards the South at the end of the run. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a broad Westerly flow across the UK through the period with Low pressure crossing East to the North while pressure stays High to the South of the UK. Some rain and showers in a typical North/South split of weather is shown with temperatures largely on the mild side of average especially in the South. ECM The ECM operational today keeps the UK locked in largely mild SW winds with rain at times especially in the North and West at first and perhaps more towards the West later as Low pressure edges in closer to the UK from the West then rather than the NW. A brief colder snap is shown early next week from the NW behind a cold front with frost a possibility briefly before the milder air edges back North later. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains little shift of emphasis from the models to show any major pattern change over the upcoming 10-14 days with largely Westerly winds remaining dominant for the time being. MY THOUGHTS All models reflect a similar pattern over the coming two weeks with the emphasis dominated by a pressure pattern of Low pressure to the North and a belt of High pressure from the Azores to Europe. The resultant Westerly or SW flow delivers plenty more mild air wafting up across the UK for a large percentage of the time with not a terrific amount of rain in the South either where conditions remain largely benign. Further North the Westerly flow shown is stronger and brings some heavy bouts of rain and strong winds and as cold fronts depart SE some brief interventions of colder polar air is apparent with short colder spells as a result. Looking longer term there is a few notable changes in the pattern with the GFS operational showing a complete pattern change at the end of it's run which would deliver cold and frosty and possibly foggy conditions late on in the run should it evolve. However, this is not supported well within it's ensembles so needs to be treated speculatively at the moment. The only other chink in the armour is from ECM who which does appear to be raising pressure towards Greenland by Day 10 and this could mean that once the depression shown edging into the UK from the West at that time moves through or fills it could spell colder weather down the line. However, having said all that there is a lot of mild and rather benign conditions to come with just the standard Autumn pattern of occasional rain and wind at times with some brief colder and more showery interludes across the North.

It looks like the different ECM op at Day 10 was out of kilter with its ensemble pack as the 10 Day Mean keeps the North/South mild split going. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Certainly very breezy but bright with it after overnight rain. Currently 11.1C with a pressure of 1004.2mbs Rising in strong WNW winds

Certainly very breezy but bright with it after overnight rain. Currently 11.1C with a pressure of 1004.2mbs Rising in strong WNW winds

Good morning. The Westerly bandwagon largely goes on within the models this morning. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY OCTOBER 21ST 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 22ND 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A Low in the Northern North sea will move away East. A strong NW flow will back slowly Westerly and decrease from the West tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times but some drier and brighter periods across the South. Near or slightly above average temperatures. Rather windy at times in the North. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow running SE currently across the UK will undulate north and South over the coming days as troughs and ridges pass West to East. The flow simplifies to a West to East motion across the Atlantic and the British Isles through the second week. GFS The GFS operational today shows a basic pattern of Westerly winds across the UK over the coming few weeks. there will be ebbs and flows in the strength of this pattern and with High pressure predicted to be not far from the South of the UK at times there will be a fair amount of cloud at times here with occasional rain. In the North the westerly flow is shown to be more active and strong with more frequent bouts of wind and rain followed by brighter, cooler and more showery conditions. With a Westerly flow throughout temperatures should be held close to the average overall. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. With only daily specifics marking any difference between the operational and it's ensembles this morning the same mix of westerly winds and occasional rain and showers is the main focus of conditions shown across the UK over the next few weeks with the most rain and wind over the North. UKMO UKMO this morning shows pressure High just to the South and Low to the North early next week with dry and bright conditions likely in the South with windy weather further North with occasional rain or showers in average temperatures for all. THE FAX CHARTS Warm sector conditions with cloudy and drizzly conditions will develop over the coming days with less wind than today. Cold fronts cross SE across Britain at the weekend with some rain followed by scattered showers then likely. GEM The GEM operational is also showing a long spell of Westerly winds in response to High pressure to the South and Low pressure to the North. Occasional rain and strong winds as a result particularly over the North will continue with longer dry and mild spells further South. A shift towards colder NNW winds at the end of the run is shown. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a typical Autumn synoptic setup with Low pressure dominant near Iceland and High pressure to the South and SW with a Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times from troughs over the North and west and longer drier spells further South f rather cloudy. It will be generally quite mild over the period. ECM The ECM operational today looks a lot less settled in the longer term as the recent build of pressure from the South next week has been replaced by further Low pressure moving in from the SW or West with rain at times in generally mild conditions. There are though some colder incursions from the NW shown to affect the North at times with showers. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The general trend remains for a North/South split in the weather over the next few weeks in a typical Autumn setup. MY THOUGHTS The Westerly pattern of weather over the UK through the next few weeks has again been endorsed this morning as most models like the idea of holding High pressure to the South of the UK and Low near Iceland. This amounts to the continuation of a broad Westerly flow across the UK and troughs in association with the Low pressure to the North will cross many areas with occasional rain. The most rain will always be towards the North with the best of the drier periods across the South. With a Westerly flow temperatures will never be cold and temperatures could be a little above at times across the South and below in the North in occasional polar maritime air. The ECM operational throws something of a curveball this morning in removing High pressure from the South of the UK as the Jet Stream slips South and allows Low pressure to make inroads into the UK from the SW as well as NW with rain at times a more universal commodity across the UK by then. It will be interesting if this is a new trend from the model or a blip as it recently has been dogged in showing High pressure moving up across the South later next week up until this morning. So in a nutshell it's more of the same as the UK continues to be covered by basically Westerly winds and occasional rainfall in a North/South split over the outlook period today with cold weather still shown to be outside of the current timeframes covered by the models.

A bright and slightly breezy start with the hint of sunshine but also showers. Currently 11.3C and 1017mbs.

A bright and slightly breezy start with the hint of sunshine but also showers. Currently 11.3C and 1017mbs.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY OCTOBER 20TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY OCTOBER 21ST 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deepening Atlantic Low containing the remains of Hurricane Gonzalo will move East across Northern Britain tonight and tomorrow with a strong and colder NW flow following active fronts crossing East over the UK through the same time period. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times but some drier and brighter periods across the South. Near or slightly above average temperatures. Rather windy at times in the North. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow has changed it's orientation to lie in a West to East flow across Britain later in the week. It then becomes complex and undulating both North and South across the vicinity of 50-55deg North across the Atlantic and the UK next week. GFS The GFS operational today shows a changeable period of weather across Britain for the next two weeks. The basic pattern is for Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South staying the main weather patterns expected across our part of the world over the whole period. As a result troughs crossing East in the Westerly flow will bring rain and wind at times chiefly to the North. In the South drier and brighter conditions are likely but as troughs creep down from the NW and stall or develop waves some rain at times can also be expected here too between the brighter periods. With generally Westerly winds it would stay relatively mild. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles agree entirely with the operational within the framework detailed above with the best of drier and brighter weather always towards the South and East as Low pressure repeatedly crosses to the North and NW of the UK with rain and strong winds but always in relatively mild conditions. UKMO UKMO this morning shows a deep Low to the North of the UK and High to the South keeping Westerly winds and the risk of rain at times going through next weekend especially in the North. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show warm sector conditions developing later in the week and weekend with rain and drizzle in places towards the West and North especially. By Day 6 a cold front moving East brings fresher air over from the West. GEM The GEM operational shows a strong build of pressure across the South through next weekend and beyond with dry and bright weather but with overnight mist and fog patches. Further North a Westerly flow maintains damp and cloudy but mild weather with a little rain at times. NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps Westerly winds across all areas next weekend with High pressure close to the South. Fronts crossing the North would bring some rain at times while Southern areas see less chance of this but overall there will be a lot of cloud. ECM The ECM operational today looks a lot like GEM with High pressure nudging up from the South over next weekend and the start of next week with progressively dry and benign weather affecting the South while the North remains in Westerly breezes with a little rain at times over hills and mountains. It looks like it will remain quite mild with mist and fog possible in the South by night later. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for mild Westerly winds to persist across the UK with pressure rising over the South with time. MY THOUGHTS Despite the very volatile conditions across the UK over the next few days the pattern looks largely uneventful and at times benign across the UK especially over the South. With Low pressure tracking Eastwards throughout the period to the North of the UK Westerly winds will remain prevalent. Pressure will become High close to or even over the South as we move into week 2 bringing quiet and mostly dry if rather cloudy conditions across the South then with any overnight breaks in the variable and often large amounts of cloud permitting the formation of mists and fogs. The polar front will be instrumental as the demarcation zone between dry and bright weather and more showery weather to the North at times with a band of thick cloud and occasional rain and drizzle being likely to be over Central Britain at the end of this week before moving North next and extending the influence of the better weather already over the South. While this pattern of weather remain and the belt of High pressure persists from the Azores to Europe then the weather will likely to be remaining mild and I see no immediate change on this overall pattern anytime soon given the Jet Stream profile currently and forecasted over the Northern hemisphere over the next few weeks.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY OCTOBER 19TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE MONDAY OCTOBER 20TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep Low to the NW of Britain moves slowly North with a trailing cold front over SE England moving away East. A breezy WSW flow covers the UK. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times but some drier and brighter periods across the South at times later. Near or slightly above average temperatures. Rather windy at times in the North. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow is shown to blow in a NE direction across the UK currently but will quickly be replaced by the flow running East across the UK this week. It then ridges North around High pressure South of the UK from next weekend and continues this somewhat ridging pattern around or over the UK for much of the rest of the period. GFS The GFS operational today shows a changeable period of weather across Britain for the next two weeks. As repeated areas of Low pressure track East to the North of the UK there will be bouts of wind and rain for all. These will be frequent and heavy at times across the North will gales or severe gales possible at times. In more Southern areas High pressure to the South, SE or SW will ensure rather less active fronts reach the South at times and while some will bring occasional rainfall at times it is likely to be lighter and less frequent in occurrence than further North. All areas under a SW or west flow will remain relatively mild overall. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. In simplified terms the Ensemble pack show a basic pattern of High pressure to the South and Low to the North of the UK over the period with a broad Westerly pattern of weather persisting throughout. The North will see the main share of wind and rain, heavy at times with gales while the High pressure zone close to the South at times will prevent anything more than occasional lighter rain at times between longer drier spells with fairly average temperatures if not rather mild at times across most parts of Britain. UKMO UKMO this morning shows a weakening cold front moving SE across England and Wales next weekend with a band of rain and drizzle slipping slowly South over the South. Further North blustery showers look more likely in a stronger and fresher Westerly flow. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show warm sector conditions developing later in the week in a broad and mild WSW flow. A cold front is shown to move slowly SE late in the week turning things more showery over the North and bringing dull and drizzle conditions down across Southern Britain in mild air late in the week and next weekend. GEM The GEM operational today shows very changeable and windy conditions with gales much more prolific UK wide on this run as High pressure to the South is held further away after the end of this week. As a result all areas are shown to have periodic bands of gales and heavy rain followed by squally showers and cooler air. There is a period of less wet and windy weather for the South later this week under a mild SW'ly over the South though . NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows changeable weather under Westerly winds throughout it's run this morning. It too shows a spell of High pressure close to the South for a time restricting the intensity of rain and wind down here for a time but even so some rain on a couple of fronts is show to cross the South from the NW towards the end of it's run to bring the chance of moderate rain and stronger winds here too. ECM The ECM operational today continues it's theme of changing changeable Westerly winds into a period of High pressure based conditions with mist and fogs likely over Southern Britain as the High pressure takes control by the start of the second week. Temperatures would remain relatively mild but it could become chillier overnight if skies clear and the mists and fogs take hold. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains unchanged from the basic Westerly flow continuing across the UK, most active over the North with pressure building close to the South at times later. MY THOUGHTS There is little change in the basic theme of Westerly or SW winds across the UK over the next week or two. However, with pressure expected to rise from the South at times amounts of rain under this changeable and unsettled pattern remains undecided with slow moving fronts descending down from the North into Southern England becoming slow moving and delivering spells of drizzly rain rather than anything more substantial. In the North heavy rain looks like being much more frequent and often accompanied by strong westerly winds too. ECM continues it's theme of bringing High pressure up across the UK in week 2 which if verified would bring quieter Anticyclonic conditions with light winds and some sunshine for many but also the risk of dense and persistent overnight mists and fogs too when it could turn more chilly. Overall though the prospects given the time of year appear quite moderate with the North likely to bear the brunt of bad weather while Southern Britain in particular see nothing out of the ordinary overall with temperatures remaining well up for all areas given the anticipated persistence of the Westerly flow.

Cloudy, grey and breezy and very mild. 16C already. Still at least it's stopped raining for now

Cloudy, grey and breezy and very mild. 16C already. Still at least it's stopped raining for now

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY OCTOBER 18TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY OCTOBER 19TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep Low is moving slowly North over the Atlantic with a trailing cold front lying SW to NE over Southern Britain clearing East tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times but some drier and brighter periods across the South at times later. Near or slightly above average temperatures. Rather windy at times in the North. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow is shown to blow in a NE direction across the UK for the next few days before turning more West to East or even NW to SE across the UK next week. It is shown to ridge up and around the UK for much of the time thereafter indicating pressure High close to the South of the UK. GFS The GFS operational today shows the current SW flow veering more Westerly and NW for a time dragging much cooler air SE across the UK following an active cold front with gales and heavy rain for all for a time towards Tuesday. The cool showery NW flow will then give way to more moderate conditions later in the week as pressure builds close to and then over Southern Britain to begin and then all of the UK with widespread fog and some frost by night becoming commonplace late in the run replacing the unsettled weather still over northern Britain later next week. Late in the run High pressure is shown to move away slowly East with a cool SE flow gradually developing with fronts to the West and South. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are quite supportive of it's operational with the gradual transition towards more settled conditions under UK based High pressure well modelled for next weekend and beyond. before then a period of changeable Atlantic based conditions remain with rain at times though not much in the South from later next week. Temperatures returning closer to normal overall looks likely. UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure over France later next week and Low to the North. This promotes a Westerly flow quite modest in strength and with pressure quite High generally. The Westerly flow will carry a lot of cloud and a frontal boundary could lie close to the South with some rain and drizzle in places with brighter weather with scattered showers likely over the North. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the SW flow across Britain being replaced by more Westerly winds from tomorrow. This will then strengthen on Monday evening as a deep Low runs quickly ESE to the North carrying an active front SE across all parts. Cooler showery weather follows for a time towards midweek before a warm front crosses East bringing mild and cloudy warm sector conditions across the UK by later next week. GEM The GEM operational today keeps High pressure later next week slightly further to the South maintaining a stronger though still relatively mild Westerly flow over all areas. Some rain at times would be expected especially across the North and West with some cooler and more showery interludes here. Not that much rain would reach the South under weakening fronts but temperatures and humidity here would be held well up. NAVGEM NAVGEM looks broadly similar to the rest with a weakening frontal band edging slowly South across England and Wales late next week with occasional rain and drizzle. This then clears next weekend as High pressure never far away from the South anyway builds back slowly across all Southern areas at the end of the run with fine weather and mist and fog overnight the likely hazards then. ECM The ECM operational today shows westerly winds next week following the cooler incursion of NW'lies on Tuesday. These westerly winds would bring mild and rather cloudy weather with some rain towards the North and NW. A weakening cold front is then shown to cross SE setting up a more WNW flow with occasional rain most likely then in the North and East while the South and West become largely dry and benign with a lot of cloud and average temperatures. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains unchanged from the basic Westerly flow continuing across the UK, most active over the North with pressure steadily building close to the South. MY THOUGHTS The theme today bases itself around how much influence the projected higher pressure developing from the South and SW late next week and beyond has on suppressing the influence of a Westerly flow and accompanied troughs across Britain. As is usual in these scenarios details are hard to pin down with accuracy but what usually transpires is that the UK ends up with a weak or stalled front lying somewhere and giving cloudy and drizzly conditions in its vicinity while the North have the best chance of seeing some sunshine and passing showers after the front passes. There is strong suggestions that a cold front will clear the South next weekend and introduce less mild and clearer air to all areas then and GFS then moves on to build pressure strongly across the UK from then with fine and dry weather with mist and fogs overnight highly likely for all. Other output suggests such a High be held just to the South or SW of the UK with developing benign and relatively non eventful conditions across the UK in a moderate West or WNW flow. What is not shown is a Jet Flow which ends up South of the UK with attendant storms and heavy rainfall that would bring and instead we have a ridged pattern in the flow taking it North over the UK and down over central Europe from later next week. So as a result we can safely say that conditions will remain relatively mild for the foreseeable future with just exceptions being from brief polar maritime incursions affecting the North at times next week and overnight home grown cold if the High develops as GFS suggests in week 2 giving an increased risk of frost. So early season heating bills can be held under control for the next few weeks at least.

Bright and very mild start to the day with some cloud developing.13.4C