Gibby
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Posts posted by Gibby
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24 minutes ago, Nights King said:
hmm I dont think stuff over northern france is heading to us.
I thought this band was meant to just head north slowly?
I mentioned earlier it looked like it was orientating to the North and East of the SW. Good for points North and East of me as some of it could get very heavy. For us and SW patchy snow gradually dying out later.
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Quite an exceptional snow event here in Kilmersdon but not as good as 62-63. An old photo but I think you'll get the idea.
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Just now, slinky1989 said:
Got a weird mix here now of light drizzly rain with the odd normal snow flake mixed in. No sleet though?
I think that would be defined as sleet, rain and snow falling together.
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Personally re more snow today. The latest radar image shows a developing band of snow over the North of our area which might suggest that this is what the Met were alluding to for us later so on that basis to me it means we might not be seeing much today. There seems little mechanism at the moment to the South to force much snow up, certainly not currently- might change later. I think Gloucestershire and South Wales might see some in the coming hours
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16 minutes ago, Bristol_Robin said:
Just don't think it will be anything special . BBC and met office seem to have downgraded it for Bristol area . We shall see though
A bit misleading. The Met Office or the BBC have not downgraded anything. In fact they have extended the risk of snow now into the weekend.
Also people who use those Weather Apps. In situations like this they are absolutely useless. Just look at one of the many free radar images available or just look out the window.
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12 minutes ago, AWD said:Nice to see you posting again.
I would very much be interested in your unbiased views regarding the potential snowfall on Thurs/Fri for our area?
Below is this mornings forecast from my Kilmersdon Weather Facebook Page. It covers the event itself. I haven’t looked further ahead into the weekend on this mornings forecast but I think a slow thaw will commence and while 850 upper air temperatures will of recovered temperatures near the surface will still be cold for some time given winds will be much lighter by then and probably giving raw, dull, misty conditions. Even next week looks basically on the cold side of average with the driving force namely the Jet Stream still well South over Spain and the Med. Its not until the second weekend the Jet shows signs of moving North ( on ECM op) and restoring more normality across the U.K. We’ll see.
Our problem this morning is not snow but severe frost. As mentioned late last night it was the coldest night for 6 years and current temperatures are still -5C. So there will be widespread ice on lakes and ponds and on roads untreated so take care. With mostly sunny skies at times today you would expect things to warm up considerably but temperatures are not expected to exceed freezing point today and the Easterly wind will be increasing steadily through the day with severe windchill temperature making it feel like near -10C. Snow showers will be less in evidence today with many places staying dry though the odd stray one moving across from the East could give a dusting here and there. Tonight will see another severe frost aided by a strong East wind. Cloud will be moving up from the South or SE later. It still looks likely we’ll be in the firing line for some pretty heavy snowfall tomorrow and Friday driven on by a strong Easterly wind. Very locally freezing rain could be an issue too more likely near the South coast. The warnings link is the professionals guide on things for tomorrow and Friday. These will be updated later this morning and I’ll post them when they are released.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-03-01
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-03-02
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-03-03-
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A real old blizzard going on down on the Lizard peninsula. Quite a rare sight.
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35 minutes ago, fromey said:
What’s this Facebook page ive been reading about
I have a Facebook Weather Page for my local area of Midsomer Norton and Radstock. I have many followers a few from afar afield as South Africa. I update it with two forecasts morning and evening with a local slant and regularly update in between using radar etc for giving an up to the minute reports of when rain, snow etc are likely to hit. The link is in my signature below.
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14 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:
This Gibby is a weather Guru?
That' it..the cold spell is over because some amature weather enthusiasts says the ECM and The GFS are calling it right.
No weather Guru but 50 years of studying weather and using mid range model charts for trends I then report on them. It’s worked for me with a few exceptions for years. I can of course be as wrong as the next man and yes there are a lot of ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ in the coming week but because we seem to have a strong shift in ‘trend’ coupled with the fact we have lost a lot of northern blocking away to Greenland or even worse Canada by the end of the week I feel the verification is very feasible.
As a side note I also think that the deep cold uppers over us midweek may work against us in allowing that Low pressure from the SW to spin up much deeper as it engages the cold than it otherwise might but I have no evidence to support that. Let’s hope the 00zs revert to what we were seeing yesterday
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1 minute ago, khodds said:
Very sensible Gibby! Never let me loose on a forecast ?
Whats your take on the latest? Are you stockpiling yet?!
No way. Not till t6hrs?
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Well as some of you may know I give a forecast every morning and night on my Kilmersdon Weather Facebook page and on a Sunday night a look at two weeks ahead which has proved very popular with the page followers. I’ve just posted tonight’s and no way was I gonna suggest snowy Armageddon at 7-10 days out whatever the models show. In fact I tried to highlight the chance of a UK based cold High as possible too. Probably won’t be too popular with my snow revellers who surprisingly enough are mostly ladies.
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Been snowing for an hour or so. Mostly light but a little more than I expected so should be grateful for that
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12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Your wunderground page say 33.5mm Gibby?!
Apologies. I forget my station resets st 9am so current 24.4 since 9am and 6.3 before 9am and after midnight equates to 30.7mm today
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23mm of rain since midnight here.
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Spending the weekend in Bourton On The Water with friends and woke up to the view below. Started snowing a while back, settling fast and currently coming down quite thick. Unfortunately my webcams 50mls away at home shows the same old rainy view which will spread up here later. Oh well at least I can say I have seen some real snow this season.
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11 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:
i can’t see how we are going to get anything wintry in central southern... looks like the ppn will either be to the north or south leaving us with a clear space of nothingness.
Yes unless there is troughing in the flow showers quickly fade after leaving high ground to the West, especially at night. The hills and mountains of Wales offer too much shelter. To be honest the wind has a bit too much NW in it even for my location as it’s West Somerset, Cornwall and Devon who are soaking up the beefiest showers.
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1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:
Meanwhile we have Thundersnow..
Well at least my app got that trajectory right.
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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Anyone else having pws issues with Wunderground! I’ve stopped reporting
No mine still reporting. Mind you I have lots of interruptions to the webcam service.
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Here’s the latest screen grap off my app. It was showing sferics down over Ilchester way but they are now removed. Obviously not been a strike over recent minutes.
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2 minutes ago, Nights King said:
Thanks Gibby I have the V7 but never knew you could set it up to tell you!
Do you think we will see much shower activity in this part of region later? I dont understand the warning seems very ott.
No it’s not the V7 radar that alerts me it’s the Weather and Radar app on my iPad and phone that notifies me. I often use it in conjunction with my Facebook weather page. Incidentally the sferics over a South Somerset will be in the Poole area soon. It’s all moving at quite a lick.
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I’ve seen lightning to the SW from up here in NE Somerset. We have had a few sleety snowy showers over recent hours when the wind really whips up but nothing of note. Incidentally I am not a lover of those BBC Weather or Met Office rainfall apps. Worth £20 a year to subscribe to the V7 radar from here. Even the free radar apps are better than hopecasting from a graphic. I have mine set up to alert me when a shower is approaching then go on sentry duty out of the upstairs window before it arrives. The wife thinks I’m mad.
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Dull and uninspiring is the ‘buzz’ word around here this morning. Grey, overcast and just 1.3C.
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Not too bad today. A few showers earlier but dry currently Light winds and colder at 5C.
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A lot of hangback of cloud to clear following overnight rain but 9mm in the last 24 hours is a lot less rainfall than was feared thankfully.
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Gibby
I think we’re slowly slipping into the weather type that will dominate the weekend. That is increasingly misty and dull conditions as winds fall much lighter. Temperatures near the surface will very much struggle by day and without much in the way of sunshine or wind snow will thaw very slowly, especially well inland. Odd bursts of precipitation drifting aimlessly up from the South could give a wintry mix at times too.