Gibby

I think we’re slowly slipping into the weather type that will dominate the weekend. That is increasingly misty and dull conditions as winds fall much lighter. Temperatures near the surface will very much struggle by day and without much in the way of sunshine or wind snow will thaw very slowly, especially well inland. Odd bursts of precipitation drifting aimlessly up from the South could give a wintry mix at times too.

I mentioned earlier it looked like it was orientating to the North and East of the SW. Good for points North and East of me as some of it could get very heavy. For us and SW patchy snow gradually dying out later.

Quite an exceptional snow event here in Kilmersdon but not as good as 62-63. An old photo but I think you'll get the idea.

I think that would be defined as sleet, rain and snow falling together.

Personally re more snow today. The latest radar image shows a developing band of snow over the North of our area which might suggest that this is what the Met were alluding to for us later so on that basis to me it means we might not be seeing much today. There seems little mechanism at the moment to the South to force much snow up, certainly not currently- might change later. I think Gloucestershire and South Wales might see some in the coming hours

A bit misleading. The Met Office or the BBC have not downgraded anything. In fact they have extended the risk of snow now into the weekend. Also people who use those Weather Apps. In situations like this they are absolutely useless. Just look at one of the many free radar images available or just look out the window.

Below is this mornings forecast from my Kilmersdon Weather Facebook Page. It covers the event itself. I haven’t looked further ahead into the weekend on this mornings forecast but I think a slow thaw will commence and while 850 upper air temperatures will of recovered temperatures near the surface will still be cold for some time given winds will be much lighter by then and probably giving raw, dull, misty conditions. Even next week looks basically on the cold side of average with the driving force namely the Jet Stream still well South over Spain and the Med. Its not until the second weekend the Jet shows signs of moving North ( on ECM op) and restoring more normality across the U.K. We’ll see. Our problem this morning is not snow but severe frost. As mentioned late last night it was the coldest night for 6 years and current temperatures are still -5C. So there will be widespread ice on lakes and ponds and on roads untreated so take care. With mostly sunny skies at times today you would expect things to warm up considerably but temperatures are not expected to exceed freezing point today and the Easterly wind will be increasing steadily through the day with severe windchill temperature making it feel like near -10C. Snow showers will be less in evidence today with many places staying dry though the odd stray one moving across from the East could give a dusting here and there. Tonight will see another severe frost aided by a strong East wind. Cloud will be moving up from the South or SE later. It still looks likely we’ll be in the firing line for some pretty heavy snowfall tomorrow and Friday driven on by a strong Easterly wind. Very locally freezing rain could be an issue too more likely near the South coast. The warnings link is the professionals guide on things for tomorrow and Friday. These will be updated later this morning and I’ll post them when they are released. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-03-01 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-03-02 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-03-03

A real old blizzard going on down on the Lizard peninsula. Quite a rare sight. http://www.camsecure.co.uk/lizard_atlantic_house.html

I have a Facebook Weather Page for my local area of Midsomer Norton and Radstock. I have many followers a few from afar afield as South Africa. I update it with two forecasts morning and evening with a local slant and regularly update in between using radar etc for giving an up to the minute reports of when rain, snow etc are likely to hit. The link is in my signature below.

No weather Guru but 50 years of studying weather and using mid range model charts for trends I then report on them. It’s worked for me with a few exceptions for years. I can of course be as wrong as the next man and yes there are a lot of ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ in the coming week but because we seem to have a strong shift in ‘trend’ coupled with the fact we have lost a lot of northern blocking away to Greenland or even worse Canada by the end of the week I feel the verification is very feasible. As a side note I also think that the deep cold uppers over us midweek may work against us in allowing that Low pressure from the SW to spin up much deeper as it engages the cold than it otherwise might but I have no evidence to support that. Let’s hope the 00zs revert to what we were seeing yesterday

No way. Not till t6hrs?

Well as some of you may know I give a forecast every morning and night on my Kilmersdon Weather Facebook page and on a Sunday night a look at two weeks ahead which has proved very popular with the page followers. I’ve just posted tonight’s and no way was I gonna suggest snowy Armageddon at 7-10 days out whatever the models show. In fact I tried to highlight the chance of a UK based cold High as possible too. Probably won’t be too popular with my snow revellers who surprisingly enough are mostly ladies.

Been snowing for an hour or so. Mostly light but a little more than I expected so should be grateful for that

Apologies. I forget my station resets st 9am so current 24.4 since 9am and 6.3 before 9am and after midnight equates to 30.7mm today

23mm of rain since midnight here.