EllyTech

The models rely on atmospheric data. I'm interested to know if they can factor in the radiated cold from ground conditions. To my thinking, we have cold rain coming that will freeze on contact in many areas that have long standing surface ice. The air just above ground might well be a lot colder than model predications?

No Met Office warning of ice for Gloucestershire. I am absolutely astonished. Road conditions are about to become very dicey, especially just off the beaten track - where homes are.

Cheltenham: Hasn't stopped snowing all day. Large flakes. The whole area looks very festive. 5-7cm accumulations (at least) on shrubbery, walls, pavements and on roads in N Chelt. Temps hovered at or just above freezing all day. All due to a lovely pivoting area of precipitation.

Looking forward to the sparks. A lovely skyline last night, flashing away with mostly IC lightning. Let see what the next 24hrs bring

I'm up late.. Below zero here by a couple of degrees. Glistening white on top of cars. Almost looks like a slight snow dusting//probably a bit of mist has deposited. Lowest overnight temps in a good while!

4Flood warnings Flooding is expected - immediate action required River Severn at Abbots Court, Deerhurst River Severn at Apperley and The Leigh River Severn at Chaceley and Haw Bridge River Severn at Severn Ham, Tewkesbury

Possibly but the central rain blob circulated over Gloucestershire/Oxfordshire/S Wale all night and this morning long. I had radar up, unable to sleep, watching and seeing..it isn't out of the realm to experience large precip totals locally. We are totally at saturation point with runoff from the Welsh mountains which will sustain levels on the River Severn and its tributaries.

Looking forward to any pics you take but am more interested in this pivoting LP system. Not left our area since it moved in. Just under 4 inches rain since midnight here (nearest AWS) more than that me thinks and it keeps coming.. small hints of 2007, but a much colder time of year. Keeping watch for snowflakes but there's not much chance of it sticking in our local in the soggyness.

Non stop rain here.. as expected. This low is pivoting over my area - is quasi-stationary.

Finally, there is a sobering up in the model thread. We are all in for a pretty treacherous period of weather after such a long period of soaking imo. Don't like the alarmist in me but.. heavens.. this is too much rain to come!

I can't model watch and read all this chasing of cold in the model thread as if its the be all and end all of Autumn weather.. we are saturated here and the bemoaning feels a bit superficial when we have real potential for serious flooding leading into Winter. Feeling glum this morning at the prospect of yet more delay to work the veg allotment. There is little over wintering on my patch this year, its saturated with no sign of drying out.

Nearby AWS giving 2cm rain since midnight.. probably a little more actually. No let up. Ground saturated from October rains.. where do we go from here? Edit, it just updated - 2.8 cm precipitation

Chilly, damp air and soaking wet ground. Needs weeks of 'dry' to sort out the veg patches. I know I'm not alone.

Well the allotment is a lake a few inches down. Just had a few thunder rumbles preceded by a bit of squally wind.

Torrential rain now. Radar shows it moving NE pretty fast, should ease off later but could cause flash flooding in prone spots here.