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  1. Thats a pretty big shift in the space of 96 hours. I think the models can be excellent at predicting incoming atlantic depressions for example, but I have great difficulty taking any output beyond 96 hours seriously in a situation like this, there is simply no way that the models will be able to accurately predict such a drastic change. Once the block sets up, we should have a clearer idea of what will occur. Until then, I personally wouldnt get disheartened by any output, expect wild swings in the coming days.
  2. Despite a ghastly 12z run for the UK, the bigger picture remains very good, and there is still plenty of scope for us to see cold weather. The polar vortex looks like it's taking a good pummeling on this run, a lot of warm air advection into the canadian arctic aswell, which can only be good news as winter approaches Even right out to the very end of the run, the vortex and jet stream appear to be in disarray. I think there is every chance we could see a notable cold spell before the months end, and there seems to be little to indicate that atlantic will take hold of our weather anytime soon
  3. We are about to see a major pattern change,I wouldn't expect the models to perform very well until the block sets up. Despite a very negative AO, the 18z laughably has the UK in a warm southerly flow. However, the jet stream is weak and in disarray, aslong as a weak and disorganised polar vortex, a continuing trend in the output I believe. Exciting times ahead
  4. the jet stream is weaker on each successive GFS run, with a tendency to send more energy south. Quite a notable upgrade, not looking good for the PV if the 12z is to be believed. I believe the key may be the much stronger warm air advection into the canadian arctic on the 12z
  5. I can understand the skepticism of some posters regarding the upcoming cold spell But the day 6 output screams potential. I was an avid watcher of the anomaly charts last season, and I dont recall seeing anything like this within the medium range. All to play for IMO
  6. The medium range output is excellent and full of potential IMO, just in time for us to see widespread snowfall. The jet stream looks like its going to become progressively weaker and less organised as we head into winter proper,
  7. Comparing the current state of the PV to the forecast from the ECM and GFS at 168+, it looks as if its going to become rather disorganised. Taking mid november, as the start of the countrywide "snowhunt" I think we may well be off to a very good start this season. Im no expert, but the below chart looks very blocked, reminiscent of november 2010... We had a lot of teases from the models last year, but i dont recall seeing such epic charts as these in the near-reliable timeframe The consistency is notable, constantly we are seeing these very blocked patterns emerge in the output.Exciting times ahead I feel
  8. Definitely the snowiest GFS run of the season Steve . Some runs are showing the cold shot to be quite potent... If we do see a direct hit from the N/NE in mid March, would it be plausible to see settling snow that lasts throughout the day ?
  9. On the subject of the UKMO... how many times has the UKMO actually led us up the garden path? Not many that I can recall. Fantastic chart at 144 + Odd that the ECM is not onboard as the ECM has given many a tease. Perhaps the ECM is playing it safe this time? Encouraging that the UKMO is remaining consistent, with the GFS also on board the search for cold is very much still alive and just over the horizon.
  10. Thats a quite a pattern change in just 4 days, incredibly progressive from the ECM The forum would fall silent I imagine after yet another tease. The short term is so promising, surely we can snatch something wintry from this pattern? heres hoping!
  11. ECM definitely on its own here at 144... only model to build heights over central europe and sink the scandi High. Agreed a very painful run.Its possible, but my no mens a certainty. Still odds on for cold IMO.
  12. We have seen blocking events in winter as shown above, however the blocking has been mostly mid-latitude blocking, and and unfortunately not positioned well for the UK. What we are seeing now is different. - True northern blocking The block is appearing more resilient (overall) each day This is by far the most promising event of winter In terms of potential for a noteable spell of cold.
  13. Atlantic is getting pushed further back each run, cold pool deeper and more directed towards us. Scandi high remaining in charge out towards day 10 now Long term thats a massive upgrade on the 06z.
  14. Facsinating model watching. Lovely to see the forum buzzing again just as the chase for cold died off. . The block has only just started to advance west across Scandinavia. Such a process is not going to be handled well by the models, and as such there are going to be wild swings in the output. By far the most promising event of winter. Based on how blocked the Atlantic has been for several months now, I think we are in for a prolonged cold spell here. Fingers crossed.
  15. . That really is a humongous block , I find it unlikely that Atlantic will break through, especially considering how stubborn blocking has been this winter. The key difference this time is the high is suitably far enough north, and we have low heights to the SE. Exciting times ahead, expect wild model swings, as small differences in this setup can have massive implications for UK weather. I have already seen snow, but I am looking forward to a potentially memorable cold spell this February. I won't be getting excited till a snow event is shown within 96 hours. The word "potential" has been used a lot on this thread this winter. However it can't be denied,as things stand, this event has the most potential for a memorable cold spell to occur from any output this winter.Thrilling model watching.