Isolated Frost
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Posts posted by Isolated Frost
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Most we got here was 5-6 inches, in mid-January 2013... but down the road in Consett and Derwentside, Cloud 10 and others saw a foot and even more in drifts off of a huge snow event towards the end of the spell.
2008-09: largest depth 11cm
2009-10: largest depth 34cm
2010-11: largest depth 42cm
2011-12: largest depth 1cm
2012-13: largest depth 15cm
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I can see -16c where is the -20c in the 2nd map ?? or is it just not labelled ?
It is the small light purple in NE Greenland... but no need to look as the 12z reading shows that the cold is most certainly back...
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Says it all really, a very mild first third, a cold middle third, and a pretty average final third contribute to a very average month. Minima around average and maxima slightly below.
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And it looks like much of Scandinavia could see its first (albeit weak) arctic outbreak by d5.
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The first live sub -20c 850hpa air for 4 and a half months in the Northern Hemisphere, here we go...
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Not the biggest fan of straight E, or ESE flows- mostly cloudy and with some light snow/snizzle here in the NE; very cold though w/ some ice days and low minima, temps supressed- unless it's extremely cold, then heavy snow is possible.
Much prefer the NNE-NE-ENE flow with Ac air, from Scandinavia w/ an accompanied upper low in the Benelux-Germany-Alps-Baltic, large snow amounts likely w/ sunshine at times.
N-NNW-NW flows often provide mostly cold sunshine, with some rain/snow shrs depending on the airmass, a nice flow to have.
WNW-W-WSW-SW-SSW all seem to be milder (maybe not the first 2 at times) with cloud, sun, and sometimes rain/sleet.
S-SSE-SE very much dull and boring weather, sometimes cold, sometimes milder depending on the continent.
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Do have the feeling that November, December and January will all have very similar temperatures , maybe between 4 and 5c, before February goes mad.
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Too mild! I don't mind sticking the heating on if we have one nice spell w/ sun and clear skies, highs in the late teens, lows near freezing with ground frost, more seasonal please!
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I don't care much more cold at the moment, the warmth is pleasant and there's some sun to brighten it up as well; and much of Russia and Eastern Europe are cooling very nicely , would like one more warm spell w/ sun, one Scandinavia northerly blast w/ snow for much of Scandi - and then time to go cold as we move into November.
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It's all due to Rossby waves- it's very much hit and miss, and often subject to stratospheric blocking penetrating lower levels: though as CM says, recently it's been a lot more like image 1.
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Much of Eastern Ukraine seeing sleet and snow tonight; 2c at Donetsk with light rain, and -2c at Moscow.
Noted also that the 12z ECMWF brings a deep surface low with cooler upper air temperatures for much of Scandinavia next week, whilst we (relatively) sizzle under the nearby high pressure; -6c's and -8c's across Finland and the Baltic States for d7- one to look out for.
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0.25c below the average at Durham provisionally, with two days to go, so a very average month likely.
First 10 days here averaged 13.95c (+0.85c)
Middle 10 days averaged 11.15c (-1.95c)
Last 8 days averaged 13.55c (+0.45c)
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Usually when I wake up, I'll have a look at Breakfast and the weather forecast- and at night, if I'm in, I might have a look at Look North. Internet has a lot more data I think now- I remember the good old BBC forecasts though.
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Much cooler here... 5c, cloud and sun. Definite chill in the air. 9c/10c low forecasts out the window.
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Only got to 14c here today, around the average. Felt cooler due to the cloud cover though- pleasant weather is generally sunny and warm/hot (14-15c+ in winter/spring, 18c/19c+ in summer/autumn). Probably find mid 20s the nicest to be in.
Exciting weather on the other hand, anything from an air frost, a cold front or some snow to me- doesn't have to be pleasant.
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Doubting myself now WSI agrees!
badboy, you would have hated autumn 2009! Full of warm synoptics with SW/S winds and 18c in November... what happened next?
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Cheers for the links BFTV, and input Interitus. Definitely muddled myself up mixing the SAI and the cover extent.
I think that the SAI and in turn Polar Vortex (both stratospheric and tropospheric) are increasingly vital in long term forecasting- and it's great seeing the attention- especially off last year- but hopefully again this year.
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13c to the 24th here, 0.1c below the 81-10 average. Looks like turning milder than average in the end...
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11c, wet, cool and grey. Persistent heavy drizzle under overcast clouds and a nippy SE breeze. High of 14c.
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Cheers Interitus, will edit tonight. Is there an available SAI index to observe though?
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13c, the temperatures has been between 13.2c and 13.7c for the last 13 hours. Cloudy, raw, wind from the E/SE.
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October Eurasian SAI in km2 w/ Aug-Sep (tbc) AO analogues + (October AO value)
2010: 9.13 (neutral)
1996: 7.50 (neutral)
2008: 7.51 (positive)
2007: 7.63 (neutral)
2003: 9.48 (negative)
2002: 11.15 (negative)
2000: 8.23 (neutral)
1997: 6.24 (negative)
1993: 8.79 (negative)
1990: 7.00 (positive)
1985: 8.62 (positive)
1984: 8.93 (neutral)
Then aligned in terms of October Eurasian SAI
2002: 11.15 (negative)
2003: 9.48 (negative)
2010: 9.13 (neutral)
1984: 8.93 (neutral)
1993: 8.79 (negative)
1985: 8.62 (positive)
2000: 8.23 (neutral)
2007: 7.63 (neutral)
2008: 7.51 (positive)
1996: 7.50 (neutral)
1990: 7.00 (positive)
1997: 6.24 (negative)
Positive AO in October linked with lower October SAI- explains the lack of Western European cold anomalies during December/January during the years in question.
Aug-Sep-Oct AO values have a link w/ October SAI; generally a NEU-NEU-POS AO favors colder Februaries and average Decembers and Januaries. A NEU-NEU-NEG favors mild Februaries. Whilst a NEU-NEU-NEU, favors a cold start and milder end.
Composites
So far, we have had a NEU (Aug) and a NEU/NEG (Sep), it looks to be favoring NEU-NEG (1996, 2010)- instead of the NEU-NEU (1997, 1990, 2008, 2007, 2000, 1993, 1984, 2003, 2002). We'll see the September value in a week or so.
NEU-NEU-POS AO values (1985, 1990 and 2008) generally favor cold February temperatures for Western Europe.
NEU-NEU-NEG AO values (1993, 1997, 2002 and 2003) generally favor milder February temperatures for Western Europe.
NEU-NEU-NEU AO values (1984, 2000 and 2007) give cooler Winter temperatures on average, with few extremes.
The link I think I've found is that (when added to the neutral-neutral AO values prior to October):
positive AO values in October usually provide cold Februaries for Western Europe- regardless of SAI.
neutral AO values in October usually provide average Februaries for Western Europe- though the larger the October SAI, the cooler it is likely to be.
negative AO values in October usually provide milder Februaries for Western Europe- unless there is a exceptionally large increase in the SAI.
I'll continue this tomorrow (tired as hell atm), but the link seems to be that Arctic Oscillation during August-October not only correlate very well to conditions in the mid-latitudes during the meterological Winter, but that the October Eurasian SAI can alter and disturb this signal.
November looks cold regardless of the October SAI and AO- though different analogues will provide different solutions; will try and explain more tomorrow, night ..
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Latest update for my October-November f'cast as same, will go for the winter one in early early November. Same pattern, slight adjustment as Sep AO seems to be dipping negative; drier, mild-average October accompanied by a much colder and potentially wintry November...
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Warmer than average, but feeling cooler under a raw E/SE flow and overcast skies. Top temperature 16c, currently 14c.
October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
That's why I always give my prediction as soon as the thread is made and stick by it- you do realise the tendency for people to go with the NWP output for the first few days of the month and go by that to a large extent; I'm thinking 11c might be on the low side simply due to the strength of this start, but not a clue after that.
October is a great month; the first 5 days are on average much warmer than the last 5 and for that reason, much trickier to predict.