Isolated Frost

That's why I always give my prediction as soon as the thread is made and stick by it- you do realise the tendency for people to go with the NWP output for the first few days of the month and go by that to a large extent; I'm thinking 11c might be on the low side simply due to the strength of this start, but not a clue after that. October is a great month; the first 5 days are on average much warmer than the last 5 and for that reason, much trickier to predict.

Most we got here was 5-6 inches, in mid-January 2013... but down the road in Consett and Derwentside, Cloud 10 and others saw a foot and even more in drifts off of a huge snow event towards the end of the spell. 2008-09: largest depth 11cm 2009-10: largest depth 34cm 2010-11: largest depth 42cm 2011-12: largest depth 1cm 2012-13: largest depth 15cm

It is the small light purple in NE Greenland... but no need to look as the 12z reading shows that the cold is most certainly back...

Says it all really, a very mild first third, a cold middle third, and a pretty average final third contribute to a very average month. Minima around average and maxima slightly below.

And it looks like much of Scandinavia could see its first (albeit weak) arctic outbreak by d5.

The first live sub -20c 850hpa air for 4 and a half months in the Northern Hemisphere, here we go...

Not the biggest fan of straight E, or ESE flows- mostly cloudy and with some light snow/snizzle here in the NE; very cold though w/ some ice days and low minima, temps supressed- unless it's extremely cold, then heavy snow is possible. Much prefer the NNE-NE-ENE flow with Ac air, from Scandinavia w/ an accompanied upper low in the Benelux-Germany-Alps-Baltic, large snow amounts likely w/ sunshine at times. N-NNW-NW flows often provide mostly cold sunshine, with some rain/snow shrs depending on the airmass, a nice flow to have. WNW-W-WSW-SW-SSW all seem to be milder (maybe not the first 2 at times) with cloud, sun, and sometimes rain/sleet. S-SSE-SE very much dull and boring weather, sometimes cold, sometimes milder depending on the continent.

Do have the feeling that November, December and January will all have very similar temperatures , maybe between 4 and 5c, before February goes mad.

Too mild! I don't mind sticking the heating on if we have one nice spell w/ sun and clear skies, highs in the late teens, lows near freezing with ground frost, more seasonal please!

I don't care much more cold at the moment, the warmth is pleasant and there's some sun to brighten it up as well; and much of Russia and Eastern Europe are cooling very nicely , would like one more warm spell w/ sun, one Scandinavia northerly blast w/ snow for much of Scandi - and then time to go cold as we move into November.

It's all due to Rossby waves- it's very much hit and miss, and often subject to stratospheric blocking penetrating lower levels: though as CM says, recently it's been a lot more like image 1.

Much of Eastern Ukraine seeing sleet and snow tonight; 2c at Donetsk with light rain, and -2c at Moscow. Noted also that the 12z ECMWF brings a deep surface low with cooler upper air temperatures for much of Scandinavia next week, whilst we (relatively) sizzle under the nearby high pressure; -6c's and -8c's across Finland and the Baltic States for d7- one to look out for.

0.25c below the average at Durham provisionally, with two days to go, so a very average month likely. First 10 days here averaged 13.95c (+0.85c) Middle 10 days averaged 11.15c (-1.95c) Last 8 days averaged 13.55c (+0.45c)

Usually when I wake up, I'll have a look at Breakfast and the weather forecast- and at night, if I'm in, I might have a look at Look North. Internet has a lot more data I think now- I remember the good old BBC forecasts though.

Much cooler here... 5c, cloud and sun. Definite chill in the air. 9c/10c low forecasts out the window.

Only got to 14c here today, around the average. Felt cooler due to the cloud cover though- pleasant weather is generally sunny and warm/hot (14-15c+ in winter/spring, 18c/19c+ in summer/autumn). Probably find mid 20s the nicest to be in. Exciting weather on the other hand, anything from an air frost, a cold front or some snow to me- doesn't have to be pleasant.

Doubting myself now WSI agrees! badboy, you would have hated autumn 2009! Full of warm synoptics with SW/S winds and 18c in November... what happened next?

Cheers for the links BFTV, and input Interitus. Definitely muddled myself up mixing the SAI and the cover extent. I think that the SAI and in turn Polar Vortex (both stratospheric and tropospheric) are increasingly vital in long term forecasting- and it's great seeing the attention- especially off last year- but hopefully again this year.

13c to the 24th here, 0.1c below the 81-10 average. Looks like turning milder than average in the end...

11c, wet, cool and grey. Persistent heavy drizzle under overcast clouds and a nippy SE breeze. High of 14c.

Cheers Interitus, will edit tonight. Is there an available SAI index to observe though?

13c, the temperatures has been between 13.2c and 13.7c for the last 13 hours. Cloudy, raw, wind from the E/SE.

October Eurasian SAI in km2 w/ Aug-Sep (tbc) AO analogues + (October AO value) 2010: 9.13 (neutral) 1996: 7.50 (neutral) 2008: 7.51 (positive) 2007: 7.63 (neutral) 2003: 9.48 (negative) 2002: 11.15 (negative) 2000: 8.23 (neutral) 1997: 6.24 (negative) 1993: 8.79 (negative) 1990: 7.00 (positive) 1985: 8.62 (positive) 1984: 8.93 (neutral) Then aligned in terms of October Eurasian SAI 2002: 11.15 (negative) 2003: 9.48 (negative) 2010: 9.13 (neutral) 1984: 8.93 (neutral) 1993: 8.79 (negative) 1985: 8.62 (positive) 2000: 8.23 (neutral) 2007: 7.63 (neutral) 2008: 7.51 (positive) 1996: 7.50 (neutral) 1990: 7.00 (positive) 1997: 6.24 (negative) Positive AO in October linked with lower October SAI- explains the lack of Western European cold anomalies during December/January during the years in question. Aug-Sep-Oct AO values have a link w/ October SAI; generally a NEU-NEU-POS AO favors colder Februaries and average Decembers and Januaries. A NEU-NEU-NEG favors mild Februaries. Whilst a NEU-NEU-NEU, favors a cold start and milder end. Composites So far, we have had a NEU (Aug) and a NEU/NEG (Sep), it looks to be favoring NEU-NEG (1996, 2010)- instead of the NEU-NEU (1997, 1990, 2008, 2007, 2000, 1993, 1984, 2003, 2002). We'll see the September value in a week or so. NEU-NEU-POS AO values (1985, 1990 and 2008) generally favor cold February temperatures for Western Europe. NEU-NEU-NEG AO values (1993, 1997, 2002 and 2003) generally favor milder February temperatures for Western Europe. NEU-NEU-NEU AO values (1984, 2000 and 2007) give cooler Winter temperatures on average, with few extremes. The link I think I've found is that (when added to the neutral-neutral AO values prior to October): positive AO values in October usually provide cold Februaries for Western Europe- regardless of SAI. neutral AO values in October usually provide average Februaries for Western Europe- though the larger the October SAI, the cooler it is likely to be. negative AO values in October usually provide milder Februaries for Western Europe- unless there is a exceptionally large increase in the SAI. I'll continue this tomorrow (tired as hell atm), but the link seems to be that Arctic Oscillation during August-October not only correlate very well to conditions in the mid-latitudes during the meterological Winter, but that the October Eurasian SAI can alter and disturb this signal. November looks cold regardless of the October SAI and AO- though different analogues will provide different solutions; will try and explain more tomorrow, night ..

Latest update for my October-November f'cast as same, will go for the winter one in early early November. Same pattern, slight adjustment as Sep AO seems to be dipping negative; drier, mild-average October accompanied by a much colder and potentially wintry November...

Warmer than average, but feeling cooler under a raw E/SE flow and overcast skies. Top temperature 16c, currently 14c.