Isolated Frost
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Posts posted by Isolated Frost
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Just noticed how synoptically top notch the 0z EC was, especially in comparison to recent suites.
UKMO 12z looked good as well, time to see whether the EC 12z can keep up any NWP momentum- anything akin to the 0z would be good, as such a solution moving into a more reliable timeframe can only be a good thing. I think a NW/N flow, turning NE, before high pressure builds is likely. What happens after is up for grabs, but I think after this wknd, the likelyhood for it to turn colder is very much on- just, how cold.
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Thats looks like the forecast for Wensleydale, Colin (4WD) is in Westerdale, but I can imagine his forecast will be similar to that as both areas are higher up and rurally located. Jammy sods
http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Westerdale/long.html
Ah, yep, very similar though.
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http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Wensleydale/long.html
Have a deeks, 4wd, looks pretty cold indeed- and less marginal for Tuesday, and an ice day on Wednesday- but it's a long, long time away, meteorologically speaking.
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EC 12z, for Washington, next week...-
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What a beautiful jumble. Cool/cold again at the surface with snow in the north; and the wonderful tri-trough in Europe, this time a bit too close for comfort. You wonder if that Greenlandic trough will dig SE and introduce a more vicious N flow after any retrogression, but it's definitely a good, albeit messy, EC suite.
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In fact the low slides under at 216, what a superb chart. Surface flow N/W across the UK, plenty of winter about that one, rain/sleet and snow for many northern areas at d9.
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The interruption in the retrogression at 192 is something to look at 216- the general flow seems to be that the EC has returned and supported the GFS modelling- and that is the main positive to reach from this run. -8c o/ Scotland at d8 is something to look forward to, at the least.
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Top class EC, attempted retrogression, but it doesn't need to be a 'pure' or full retrogression- a real pull of cold energy from the north associated with that Arctic trough. Shaping up for a N influence some time down the month.
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Early prediction-
mixed December, some anticyclonic colder days, mostly W/NW/SW dominated, maybe one colder spell from the N
January increasingly cold, possibly a SW start, changing SE/E with a potential later cold blast
February very cold, dominated by E/SE winds, increasingly milder later on after a very cold first half
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If the minima for the 10th has already passed, we're 1.25c below the average to the 10th here at Durham.
To be higher than the 1981-2010 average of 6.4c, the last 20 days must average higher than 7.0c.
Higher than the 1981-2010 minima average of 3.4c, the last 20 days must average higher than 4.4c.
Higher than the 1981-2010 maxima average of 9.4c, the last 20 days must average higher than 9.6c.
A pretty cool first third, lots of notably cool minima, something that this year has lacked (January and March's cold mainly due to impressive -ve maxima).
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Best 2 months of the year, Nov and Dec. The long nights, increasingly colder outlook and festivities all add up to make it so atmospheric.
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HREC has snow and sleet turning to rain early Monday here- unlikely but pleasing to finally see.
High resolution EC(M) model. 48 hour projections.
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HREC has snow and sleet turning to rain early Monday here- unlikely but pleasing to finally see.
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Very large difference between the anomaly here and in the CET zone, noticeably cooler here, nearly 3c difference or so after the first 8 days!
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1c after a high of 10c, another lovely day with clear skies, and a little bit of rain in the afternoon.
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Well, it was a VERY mild autumn when it came to minima, but an air frost on the morning of the 2nd (counts as the 1st meteorologically, 0900-0900), and potentially another tonight (1.3c at 0000), that's 2 in 3 days. Very brisk, much more fresh than of recent.
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Got down to -1c at Durham Uni yesterday morning, already 2c there now. Brilliant weather recently, some sunny days, some heavy rain and snow for higher hills.
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I'm still expecting a very cool-cold second half of November, so I'm happy with my guess.
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Here, the average maximum has only been 1c above the average, but the minima is currently running at +3.3c the average, so extremely mild nights. So much so that only 3 of the 22 minimum temperatures have been below the average of 6.2c!
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Devoid of frosts, but bar that, some low and high maxima, some sunny days, mostly cloudy/wet days, with a few storms. You can never really get the average October, though this is very close.
Remember October 2012 was very cold, so 2013 is simply its counter act. I agree with Bottesford, it's not been spectacularly abnormal.
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German met 70 to 30 of a cold winter ahead http://t.co/slVuNn7vkC
I've never read so much cobblers than on that website... and the German met isn't even involved; just one solitary meteorologist.
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Sorry haha I get really stroppy about the weather sometimes. I was hoping that 2013 might come in below average but this very mild October may ruin it for me. I was sort of thinking cooler in November but now the models seem to be changing their mind on this. The models are by no means everything, but them changing nearer the time isn't filling me with hope.
Furthest model (GFS) is only going to the 1st of Nov atm! I wouldn't worry, I think that there will be a cold spell and quite a good one at that in Nov, based on composites.
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Surely the CET values don't personally affect as much as you're portraying?! A warm October, cool November and mixed Dec is how I predicted it in Sep; I think Oct may well be v warm, but Nov and Dec are the months where you actually want colder weather...
I am disliking this weather though, mild, but cloudy and at times a lot of drizzle.
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Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
My, my, the UKMO has a friend. Classic troughing into central Europe- strong MLB ridging into Greenland with a good retrogressive motion on it, a little unorthodox WAA up there- but the end result is a slack, wintry N'ly for much of the UK at 144. EC's done its job again.