Isolated Frost
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Everything posted by Isolated Frost
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Look outside, that is the only reliable indicator of what will happen today. -
Chemistry GCSE, and Paul, it's gonna pour down, not quite sure where!
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Morning all!
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Alza, the Cumbrian rain was caused by the mild sector with -3c 850 packets dotted around. That mild sector progresses with the front meaning upper air temps should be 1c colder under the same mild sector, and all our precip will be under sub -5c 850s. Its a case of watching the lamppost, I've been radar watching instead of exam revising, which is in an hour, damn! Alza, the Cumbrian rain was caused by the mild sector with -3c 850 packets dotted around. That mild sector progresses with the front meaning upper air temps should be 1c colder under the same mild sector, and all our precip will be under sub -5c 850s. Its a case of watching the lamppost, I've been radar watching instead of exam revising, which is in an hour, damn!
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Precip is expected to fall during the day (negative), but no real mild sector with 850temps staying below -5c all day, popping below -6 and -7c in the evening. MetO also predicting Tuesday and Wednesday to be very encouraging convection-wise, with snow shrs, whilst they will be more isolated and light by Wednesday evening and Thursday. After that, it could be a big channel low, atlantic storms, calmer SElies or a battleground. All up for grabs. I'd say if today delivers like MetO warnings signal, and so do Tuesday and Wednesday- I wouldn't mind a clear, cold Thursday with a good 5-6 inches on the ground... oops, getting too far ahead there!
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Btw, NMM suite gives continuous snow (light, then heavy, then light) from 9am to 10pm in Tyne and Wear today.
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The band is fragmenting but if f'cast to intensify before midday as it reaches Tyne and Wear by 11am. Very interesting stuff this morning- please be snow!
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Starting with icy stretches on untreated surfaces, followed by snow spreading east this morning, perhaps becoming locally heavy. This afternoon the snow will persist in many places. Accumulations up to10cm are generally expected, but possibly to 15cm over high ground. Maximum Temperature 2 °C. Met O upgrade! Currently 0.1c with that band/line coming in... oooooohhhh
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3/4 of a cm lying on the fence now, which is a very good result considering the situation 6 hrs ago. No grass visible, but much of the concrete is. Hopefully this is here when I wake up!
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Thats about spot on. On the day, the NMM, GFS, UKMO won't matter- it's whats happening outside. One thing is for sure, it's going to be bloody cold!
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NMM says it will begin as snow, but goes very quickly and so only delivers 2-3 hours of snow, stalls, comes back for an hour, and then after 2pm, it's dry. BBC forecast says it begins as rain during the rush hour, slowly turns to snow whilst it stalls, moves out to sea before coming back in for a whole afternoon of snow. Both snowy solutions, one less risky but minimises the positive (NMM: all snow, but very little of it), and the other very risky but maximises the positive (BBC: rain and snow, but lots of it, so if we get the right side of it, we are in big luck). NAE is superb again. Will be an interesting day. GFS takes about 0.5c/1c off the temps tomorrow on the 18z, which is a small positive, which could prove vital when it comes to the extreme marginality of it all. Heavy rain at Tynemouth and heavy snow at Gateshead- or heavy rain at Sunderland and heavy snow at Durham are all real possibilities tomorrow.
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Starting to lay on concrete, very light, but this is a nice platform. BBC predicting it will start off as rain, pass by, and come back in by the early afternoon, as snow.
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Well, the NMM has actually upgraded tomorrows snow/sleet event, I guess it had to after downgrading it every run! Shows a smaller mild sector, more westward movement and mostly snow with sleet on the coast at 9am tomorrow whilst it previously had mostly sleet with rain on the coast, and snow above 200m.
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2.5/5! Good stuff, shame its for a minute or two.
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No, snow however is easily visible on the grass, and in quite a few gaps. Sets a good base if we do get snow.
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Still snowing and filling in gaps, intensity 1/5.
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Nope just low intensity.
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Pretty happy with the little sugar dusting in patches. Uppers are milder but the intensity will be stronger.
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Setting in patches on the grass.
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Smog will add a degree and melt it by dawn
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Intensity is indeed getting better. 0.5 - extremely light 1 - very light 1.5 - light 2 - light to moderate 2.5 - moderate 3 - moderate to heavy 3.5 - heavy 4 - very heavy 4.5 - torrential 5 - severe
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Hmmm
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1c/-1c, light snow at NCL.
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Extremely-perfect-fantastic-reliable-snowometer 0.5 - extremely light 1 - very light 1.5 - light 2 - light to moderate 2.5 - moderate 3 - moderate to heavy 3.5 - heavy 4 - very heavy 4.5 - torrential 5 - severe
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If we get a formed trough on Tuesday or some really potent showers, 5-10cm is easily possible. Wednesday looks better than yous are portraying it to be, and afterwards, we stay in a E/SE flow according to the UKMO, GFS and ECM output (UKMO a beaut). Tomorrow has downgraded big time, but could deliver at some level if we moved about 0.5c down. If you wake up with snow falling, do a little jig and get your sledge dusted. If you wake up with rain or sleet, be patient (but cry silently).
