Isolated Frost
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Everything posted by Isolated Frost
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Mod-heavy snow again here! 0.1c/-0.7c. -
Only fair that Nick gets some more than us, Durham always fares worse than Tyne and Wear in recent years.
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Blimey Nick! Not often you out-do me, just 3cm/4cm here.
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Sleety rain type thing here, v light
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North Sea is looking very... North Seaey tonight! Plenty of convective showers, quite intense, after the original band.
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Snowing heavily here, a real covering on the local hill.
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>
Isolated Frost replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
EC just as good as UKMO until 120, more like GFS, and then it's great again after 168. -
Netweather have a free usable rainfall radar on their site as well, updates every 15 mins!
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^ radar intensifies- but it's the clouds that look mammoth.. I would love NL's place on the coast right now!
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Starting to snow it bit more, now. 2/5, moderate.
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pre-120 1. ECMWF 2. UKMO -- -- 3. GEM 4. GFS post-120 1. UKMO -- -- -- 2. ECMWF 3. GFS/GEM for snow potential in our region when it comes to the latest 12z's
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At 96- the ECM would be tremendously snowy here, but very marginal close by, and very risky! 1. UKMO 2. ECMWF 3. GFS 4. GEM Snow starting here now.
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Regarding the +48 view from the NWP 12z's- it goes 1. ECMWF 2. UKMO 3. GEM 4. GFS ECM and UKMO have a slack E/SE flow on Wednesday with plenty of snow showers in sub -8c air, the GEM is slightly less progressive, but is still very good, while the GFS is shifted roughly 100 miles east from the other major models, with less cold air and a less developed E flow. The ECMWF is ranked better than the UKMO because of the less Scandinavian ridging. At +72: 1. ECMWF 2. UKMO 3. GFS/GEM ECMWF suite even better than the UKMO at 72- with a E/SE flow, and a S/SE flow across western Britain, with the atlantic shunted away. However, the UKMO is very similar, though it has slightly larger pressure and more of a S flow over western Britain, it has -10c uppers touching on the east, and the upstream pattern is better regarding the upcoming undercut, so expect the UKMO 96 to be better than the ECMWF 96. The GEM and GFS both to an extent bring in the atlantic before the undercut- and so aren't as good at snow retention. However, the 96 analysis is most important as the models deal with the undercut. We are hoping the ECMWF goes for a NW/W-SE/E progression a la UKMO instead of the S-N progression of the other suites.
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NMM downgrades upper air temps, but also lowers pressure for the next 2 days in our region. Very marginal tomorrow, but potentially quite showery.
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If there is any convection in the N Sea at 9/10ish, the 850hpa vectors turn E/NE, and you should see some snow then tynevalleywinter, but only if there is some after 9pm- one of these might clip you as well.
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Never look at the BBC/NWP forecasts when it comes to convection- it truly is all due to conditions on the day- tomorrow is looking the most positive for North Sea convection since Dec 16 2011 (which only gave 3cm mind, but we can't predict tomorrow with that much certainty yet). I'm going for rain and sleet (light) to start off tonight, with some snow afterwards.
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Band moving in from N/NE now on the Northumberland coast- Newcastle and Sunderland reports wanted in the next 30 mins!
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NE flow at upper levels- with -8c/-9c uppers- lower pressure than usual as well. Residual cloud from todays system will be quickly eradicated overnight, with the establishment of a completely new airflow- http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html system curling in.. here we go again
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So does the 120hrs! Belter!
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0.5 - extremely light 1 - very light 1.5 - light 2 - light to moderate 2.5 - moderate 3 - moderate to heavy 3.5 - heavy 4 - very heavy 4.5 - torrential 5 - severe That's probably the heaviest it got today Radar showing a E/SE progression of shrs near the NE Scotland coast- sink that flow and jackpot- now we play the waiting game, moving from the N/NW, was W 3 hours ago, so a slow progression as the transient lower trough system passes by- watch dew points and temps as the flow could begin off as rain/sleet- slowly colder uppers move in for snow this eve (the NMM predicts the flow will turn east of due north - 700hpa - at 6pm, so watch the east and north-east for the convectivity- the flow tomorrow at 700hpa is beautifully N/NE, flow at 850hpa is E/NE, add -8c/-9c uppers and a slack flow... snow showers galore
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Paths are pretty slushy now- mainly due to pedestrian traffic, but also a gradual melt after the 1030-1300 snowfall. Band starting to become more deregulatory and swing a bit- hopefully we have a lot more coming this evening. About 2cm lying here on untouched surfaces, grass is covered.
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Thawing now, curl back!
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Just came out the exam hall to moderate snow, good covering on the grass. Result.
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Where abouts in tyne valley are you?
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Looks like it's intensifying, it's rather thin so it'll be dependent on bending back at noon or so. Could be here at Tyne and Wear for 0930/1000.
