Isolated Frost

ECM 12z would make December 2010 look like June in Benidorm. NE England and E Scotland in the firing line completely. What an absolute stunner.

Let's all be mature about this. Sorry for taking over your thread, but this is just madness for Scotland (and NE England )

Don't worry about the band slowing and fragmenting- the Met Office also predicted this- and took this in mind when putting out your amber warning.. 24-36 hrs of light-mod snow will accumulate big time.. I think the NW and W Midlands are in for quite a good event with 10-15cm quite widely, and 15cm+ in some spots.

Synoptics that make me sleep well.

Hahahaha EC and UKMO SO much snowier than the GFS output... i'm inclined to believe them because 1) they have higher verification rates 2) they have some snazzy HD graphics on the yr.no site 3) they are bloody snowy!!

Yep- the meteograms available on the 'hour by hour' option for each city include the hi-res ECM meteogram for each location- EC 72 much better than yesterdays EC 96 with colder uppers and a more distinguished flow- more retrogression and accordingly, stronger heights between Greenland and Scandinavia.. and a stronger PV moving into Scandinavia.. a superb chart- wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow's yr.no updates (superb site btw, efficient Norwegians..) had some really heavy convective snow shrs over E Scotland There is a god...

Actually LS- that is in co-operation with the ECM- I read it on their site, will try and find the link Talking about the ECM... Wowza

Very far away from it- we have to urge realism until we come into the reliable. Snow-wise, with atlantic incursions- it seems as though central and western parts should benefit most early on but the depth of continental cold (and surface cold here in the NE) is quite something, the ice risk is quite huge if i'm honest over the next week- and temperatures will be very cold (struggling to pass 3/4c for about 10 days at least, starting this Monday just gone) It has some potential, but for now, it's a long way away, and snow-wise it doesn't look too special atm, though in terms of cold- it is indeed extremely so, with signals of a movement to MJO phase 7- the optimism regarding mid-atlantic ridging and a euro cold trough rise and then the chances of a snowy spell increase- PV into Scandi and a slow removal of energy over NE Canada the vital ingredients to fuelling the reload late month Watch GP, Chionomaniac, LomondSnowstorm and Lorenzo's postings in particular amongst others- the signal for height rises to the W/NW and a slow injection of polar energy to the NE provides a touch of real positivity as we move into February there's a long way to go, and plenty of twists and turns.. the UKMO output tonight very well looked like something that would be 'just the beginning', but the volatility of the NWP must not be under-stated

Karyo- the 12z UKMO looks further east in comparison to yesterdays 12z UKMO ?

By Friday 2100, I think the NW/Midlands/South-West and parts of SW Scotland will be doing much better. By Saturday 2100, I wouldn't be shocked if we were at the same levels, if not more. By Sunday 2100, based on current NWP, we would be ahead. Blizzard-wise, it's a word that is banded around v easily nowadays, with height and elevation yes, but at low levels, mod-strong winds with heavy snow on Friday night and Saturday morning v possible, turning lighter/moderate through Saturday- with snow shrs moving in The possibility of snow shrs moving in with the occluded front is now a possibility and a fascinatingly snowy one at that- all eyes on the FAXes Dave- the atmospheric changes, and the jet stream reaction appear to be a direct result of the SSW- but the real reload is expected late on in the month, though details are rather abstract at this time regarding it

Bear in mind that is for Friday alone. Saturday looks even snowier here. You, at 900ft in Whittonstall (thanks for the location btw) are in prime position to benefit over the weekend- on top of the snow cover you currently have (thanks again for the pics). Dave, same chance as GFS, GEM and ECM. The pattern looks set in place, but it has plenty of adaptations. We'll have to wait until after Friday to gauge the prospects afterwards. UKMO has snow in the NE on Friday, heavy snow shrs on Saturday, cold again on Sunday with some snow before a very snowy Monday and Tuesday. An encouraging run.

STUNNING ukmo

Scandi incoming....! From the Arctic to Aberdeen- classy show from the UKMO tonight- heavy snow showers from the E on this one, retrogressive heights building towards the Scandi-Iceland corridor (nearly as good as the Greenland-Iceland corridor!) I think everywhere in Scotland has to be very happy with today's 12zs, namely because everywhere gets some snow... but the UKMO is something else, to have that at 96

GFS is not too nice. Shifts a bit further W wards from yesterdays 12z. UKMO is a stunner though. Yesterdays 12z for 0000 Friday at top, todays 12z for 0000 Friday at bottom- Atlantic pattern further east (more chance of frontal activity), continental cold pulse further west (more chance of convection)... the uppers are lower, and so is the mean pressure Uppers and pressure similar at 1200 Friday- flow slightly more SSE-NNW instead of SE-NW (another positive) Oh, and Saturday and Sunday = monster convection from an unstable E/SE flow in the North Sea... yum yum

Frontal snow for the west on Friday, and then this for the east on Saturday.

Heavy/moderate snow on Friday evening, lighter than those in the NW/W Midlands, however, we should hold onto the snow throughout Friday night and into Saturday, leaving accumulations of 5-10cm likely throughout the region, 10-20cm on hills. Afterwards, undercuts and reloads appear to be the order of the day- as the continental cold defeats the atlantic mild... at least for the east.

At odds with the GFS, but not the EC or UKMO output, highly plausible. General consensus is for a strong active front to make inroads on Friday, and then some undercutting lows and building retrogressive heights - slack south-easterlies/easterlies with channel lows possible. EC solution v snowy for Scotland and the North, rainy across the south after Sat.

Morning! -6.4c here. Plenty of interesting views on the models today. Very messy but very snowy- BBC forecast at 0728 signified heavy snow for basically all of the nation on Friday.

-3.6c and shrouded in fog, fluctuating wildly. What happens after Thursday is, literally, up in the air, here's hoping we all get a good share of snow and cold.

Good luck from below the border (again!) for the upcoming wkend... GFS 18z kicks in the south-easterly flow and very cold upper air temperatures for much of Scotland and eastern England- so here's hoping the North Sea snow machine can do the business from Dundee to Durham!

Well.. it's shifted west. So, we don't get effected by the frontal system but we do by convective showers And you know how much we love convective showers. Result either way! -4.1c here... BRR!

Btw boycott the sun

Yeah- BBC forecasts rather optimistic on the prospect of snow shrs come Thursday as the atlantic system moves in to disturb and retrogress the scandinavian ridge- Anyone else notice the Look North prediction of -9c in Durham tomorrow morning?

-5c at NCL with fog. Fabulous. Thinking if we do get snow on Friday- then we can stand the slack flows without any snow, because we would get some incredibly low temps on the snowfields. Just hoping Thurs and Fri post some snow, maybe some E movements to help it- but latest forecasts would give us quite a bit

^ We'll be fine- the uppers will be cold enough- the flow is conductive to -5c uppers with such a battleground- the refill from the NE will be v cold come late month. NW England, W Yorkshire, W Midlands should have at least 10-20cm on Friday. NE England, SW Scotland, N and S Yorkshire, E Midlands, N Ireland, Wales, SW England (away from the extreme SW), East Anglia and the rest of southern England I'm looking at 5-10cm Most of Scotland, coastal extremities of NE England, extremities of SW England should get at least 2cm. It will be a very snowy day. If the ECM comes off, we would have a good amount. If the UKMO, similar but slightly less. The GFS and GEM is notably less. Swings and roundabouts to come.