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Everything posted by Isolated Frost
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None of the models at 120-144 look anything like the awful GFS. It will be hugely wrong. It's about which one of the EC, UKMO and GEM output is right. I'm hoping GEM, or UKMO. ECM not that great- but hopefully some cold dp's will keep it wintry on Monday and Tuesday- and the Scandi vortex/weak jet scenario preserves and strengthens the blocking heights.
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ECM colder than the UKMO, which is colder than the GEM, which is colder than the GFS for Sunday. And even the GFS doesn't go above -5c. I'm not scared about thicknesses, they stay below 1290dm on Sunday. I am scared about Monday- but that's a long time away. EC slightly milder than GFS on Monday. GEM coldest.
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
Isolated Frost replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Dry snow= 1mm around 12mm (1.2cm) of snow Wet snow= 1mm around 5-10mm (0.5cm - 1cm) of snow Look at the dewpoints, if they are below -1c, then most snow is dry, and light amounts of 1mm will equate to more than 1cm of snow but if it is wet, the water content is higher and 1mm is less than 1cm of snow- 789 replies
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
Isolated Frost replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
UKMO 96 would be -5c 850s for the SW of Scotland to about -7c in the NE, very close and marginal. -7's and -8's throughout Scotland on the UKMO 120- a very snowy chart. -7's and -8's also at the 144, which would be bitterly cold and drier.- 789 replies
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
Isolated Frost replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Latest big suites out (I'd classify GEM as bigger than GFS after this winter!) GEM has a more north-east pattern than the UKMO- with a SE flow instead of a ESE, and a slightly less favourable pattern at 70/80 N, 0 W/E. Heavy snow showers on -8c/-9c for the east of Scotland, moving in to many central parts on the UKMO, more likely to be flurries and lighter shrs on the GEM with a strong, marginal SE wind and -6c/-7c uppers. Both are similar at 0000 Sunday, with -8c uppers into NE Scotland on the GEM with a E/SE flow, and -10c uppers clipping parts of Scotland on the UKMO. More heavy snow with -8c to -10c uppers across most of Scotland on Sunday... that's 2 days of almost constant convective snow shrs, potentially quite heavy. Significant accumulations possible for the E and NE of the nation especially (note nation!!). The GEM and UKMO are broadly similar with the exceptions of a slightly more favourable tint of the segmented troughing in the atlantic on the GEM- and the Euro trough being positioned further south. Add to that the polar vortex strength is stronger in Scandi on the GEM, I'd say UKMO was a weaker solution when it comes to its outcome after this wknd, which by the way is v snowy for north and east Scotland, potentially snowy, but looking more wet and marginal for the south. We'll see the GEM in a bit when it updates past 72, but I would expect to be more positive on that front. A very snowy weekend to come for those in the East of Scotland, although the potential is there for all areas of the nation to see some snowfall.- 789 replies
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
Isolated Frost replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
That's what we like to see!- 789 replies
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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
Isolated Frost replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
UKMO 96 very marginal across coastlines in N England and S Scotland, but anywhere with 1) elevation or 2) simply north of Glasgow-Edinburgh will receive a lot of snow from that- 789 replies
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Saturday should be good enough for snow for most, maybe the odd touch of sleet on the coast. Strong SE flow, plenty of convection. Very heavy snow shrs on Sunday as well, very cold, slack flow with low pressure. ECMWF slightly better than UKMO short-term, but stronger northern blocking on the UKMO at that range. 96 (Monday) should be very snowy at first, with -8c uppers into the top of the NE, strong SE flow with plenty of precip from the UKMO output- as said above, the EC not quite as good, but still very snowy. At 120, heavy sleet and snow for much of us on the UKMO, more marginal, rain and sleet likely, with less strong cold troughing- and a much lesser 'reverse' zonal flow. At 144- the vortex is less organised and fluent in Scandi- but the blocking remains in Greenland/GIN corridor instead of sliding back into the mean zonal longwave flow on the EC. An atlantic low is nearby on both- but the favoured solution of the mid-atlantic ridging into Greenland is achieved on the UKMO output- and 168 onwards would be pretty special. Mind you, the EC 168 is special- but the mid-atlantic ridging doesn't come into play, and the high sinks- the UKMO would give us the NE reload.
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UKMO convection from 48-144 is incredible, if it went out to 168 we'd be in real Nov 2010 territory, and if the block holds to the NW, and doesn't sink (a la ECM), we will get one hell of a run, and potentially, very slack NE winds with PV to the east/scandi, and a blocking high in the GIN corridor/Iceland... this spell could be really special if all the pieces come together.
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UKMO was an absolute stunner- even better than yesterdays 12z suite with convective easterly flows, favourable and aggressive retrogression, a dying atlantic that dislikes the GFS solution and then an attempt at the mid-atlantic ridge late on. EC not as good as yesterdays- very cold, but uppers not as good as atlantic lows are further north between 96-144, plenty of rain and snow for us.. snow for Scotland, heavy rain for the south- a slight southerly adjustment and it would be even better than yesterdays. Hell of a chart. GEM output is marginal but incredible- so much snow from it. Saturday looks very snowy from the SE here, as does Sunday... another marginal frontal incursion, with the wind here remaining easterly before heights move to the NW, and the PV sets up in Scandi... that could well be the NE reload we're waiting for.
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Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 15/01/13 18z------>
Isolated Frost replied to A.J's topic in Regional
Adam, nope, you were just influenced by a stray 18z GFS run and another awful NAE, despite all other model guidance and Met Office suggesting otherwise.