Isolated Frost

Nothing yet in Washington, patience...

Yum! It's edging s'wards.

We are 6 hrs into the 72hr convective window!! Calm down, I had 4cm on Mon whilst Durham had 8cm, you win some, you lose some.

These showers will tilt ESE instead of SE over the next 3 hrs, and shower activity increases over NE/E Yorks, slowly and steadily the south of the region will get more involved.

Durham getting into the act in the next 3 hours for sure.

Newcastle/Morpeth/Ashington/North Shields/South Shields area is in for a very interesting next hour or two. Interest starting to flow south into Gateshead/Sunderland locale afterwards.

That whole NE coast from Seaham northwards looks like it's going to be in some real action over the next few hours ! Nothing that far inland until 1900.

NMM advice? Watch the E Yorks coastline. This little feature begins to develop over the next hour and comes in at 2000... can't be wrong at t+3, can it?!

If we shifted from this SE, to a ESE, we would be getting absolutely destroyed by this trough- which looks like it'll be on course for E/SE Scotland instead.

Tilt... dammit... tilt.

Urgh so negative, it will hit us.

We want snow as well!!

Tonight, I'm expecting a very slow shift from SE to ESE wind flow at the upper air levels- so snow for Northumberland/Tyne and Wear, moving into County Durham at times. Tomorrow, this flow turns very much E by the early hours of tomorrow morning, bringing the whole region into it. The situation gets marginally better as we move through the next 24 hours. Saturday night/Sunday morning have a strong E flow, sub -7c uppers, sub 528 and 1290dm lines, everything is in line for something really good then. To me- it looks like a very cold few days, with lots of convection to come. Convection wise- Borders, Aberdeenshire, Perthshire and Northumberland the places to be... thundersnow reported in Aberdeen just now.

Northumberland/Borders about to get battered by heavy snow shrs.

He's further north than you- and just a small difference in latitude is hugely important in a SE flow for this region.

I know what I said seemed extreme, but that was madness, vis below 150m for 10 minutes. Light snow here and an inch added since 1200 today.

Heaviest snow I have seen in my life. No joke. Couldn't see a thing.

No, a slow movement from SE, to ESE, to E and finally ENE tomorrow.

Not as good in NE38- but still some v heavy snow showers with blowing snow. Precipitation over the last 12 hours. Northumberland coast and SE Scotland coast being most affected, along with inland E Scotland.

That'll be from the band moving from the south clipping eastern counties.

Snowing heavily and blowing around here.

I'm going for intermittent snow shrs, esp for Northumberland today- plenty moving into the populated parts this afternoon and evening. Localised accumulations of 2 to 5cm are likely. Tomorrow sees a more easterly direction, with heavy snow shrs across most of the region, especially eastern counties and high ground in Northumberland. Sunday looks snowy in the early hours, before fading out- though it turns snowy from the S due to an organised band in the evening, affecting the east coast most. Monday and Tuesday look very heavy and strong precip wise, should be very marginal, but with low surface temps and evaporative cooling, sleet and snow likely.

The little strip between Aberdeen and Dundee looks snowiest today, the areas around it (up to 50mi radius) should receive quite a few heavy snow shrs as well.

Convection-wise, definitely (though the morning could have quite a bit in it with a E/NE'ly) Snow-wise, not exactly. HD-ECM has tracked that band off the coast of SE England that is forecast to move northwards, expect East Anglia and the South East to see 2-5cm, up to 10cm locally, and for N Yorkshire, NE England, Lincolnshire and SE Scotland to clip some of it and get between 1-5cm.

I'm going to enjoy the next few days before thinking about what comes afterwards. Sleet on the coast, snow inland my prediction for Monday and Tuesday. Heavy at times.