Isolated Frost

Mod snow on a gusty SW breeze, 2cm on grass. Not bad really- a bit of rain soon to clear it off. Minor snow event, better than nothing. Good walk home in it though!

EC 192-240... Finally the arctic northeasterlies with a Greenland blocking high ridging south and east- beauty !

Retrogressing upper heights to Greenland? Superb EC run for cold- very harsh frosts with snow shrs in the south, cold everywhere really. Uppers below -6c for the east coast from 144 to 216 at the least... some snow risk as well as the cold in there on a E breeze.

Really? December was below average for much of the north, and there were a few snow events in the first half of the month. I know you didn't have a good spell in January, but much of England, Wales and parts of Scotland had a superb 2 week spell. Tomorrow looks very interesting for parts as well. The atlantic is as strong as Man City's defence- if there was any time for the block to push through, retrogress and bring in the cold, it's now.

Big cold set in play for much of central Europe- the energy sent E/NE on this run from the EC. There is a lot of fun synoptics beforehand (tomorrow's sliding trough, Monday's easterly and the retrogressive plume of upper heights moving in as the canadian vortex finally disarms itself)- and the trend looks very GP-like... see the NW winter f'cast Feb prediction- We're seeing a good +ve anomaly to the NE and N, and a tentative -ve anomaly to the south-east. The atlantic hardly looks like it's having a party against the block, and it's only a matter of time before we see an amplified trough backing west in the atlantic as we see a link-up of northern heights. Things are looking very promising.. big -ve temperature anomalies across central Europe over the next week at the least with a cold E'ly regime, expect the UK, specifically the east to join in with these for at least the next 10 days... after that, a variety of options... I don't think rampaging zonality is one of them.

Not at all, maybe for the south and south-east, but for much of the Midlands and the North West it is very good.

Without meaning to sound to offend, are you actually reading the charts pre 120? Or even reading all of them, instead of those that suit you? Plenty of cold on the GFS again

Equivalent temp plot for Sunday eve-- put a line between say, Norwich and Liverpool and it's all snow for that line northwards. Basically, much of the E Midlands, parts of the W Midlands/E Anglia and NW England, as well as all of NE England and southern Scotland, though the strongest precip should be across the midlands. Expect significant accumulations across the peak district and parts of the pennines. Similar point of view with the wet bulb temps- looking at a very snowy image across NW England (esp high ground) and much of Yorks/Pennines.. sleet, rain and snow for the Midlands and East Anglia. Rolling that forward to Monday morning- heavy snow for much of East Anglia, the Midlands and SE England, with heavy rain, sleet and snow in the SW (heavy snow on high ground in the midlands and south/south-west). A strong easterly develops- the advection of cold air on top the low is marked and substantial as we move through Monday- A day of first heavy snow for southern areas, turning into one with heavy snow showers moving in from the E and NE. Looks like a very eventful couple of days, with some strong winds and heavy precip moving through, before colder air is introduced from the east.

GFS retrogresses, undercuts and shifts the vortex energy- substantial height building. This at D11 is a superb example of the extended modelling. Plenty to come through beforehand but I do not see any mobile and strengthening jet to disrupt any retrogressive motion set in place. A shift in the hemisphere likely again- more amplified then zonal.

This winters composite seems good so far. +ve anomaly for most of Greenland, very large +ve anomaly over Svalbard and E Greenland. The notable presence of the -ve anomaly in the mid-north atlantic is what has skewed many perceptions. -ve anomaly straight through Britain as the jet, though southward shifting, has been strong and consistent in it's modelling/composition through the UK, not south of the UK. Expect this to be diluted over the next few weeks as the Greenland-Scandinavia +ve anomaly strengthens, as signals for retrogression and a resultant s'ward shifting jet and -ve anomalies come into play.

I thought yous may appreciate this

sorry about that...

EC 12z was incredible for us! Anyway, from Wednesday, things turn colder for us- Straight N'ly, a few troughs and disruptions in the flow could give snow inland, but a day of sun and snow shrs is likely, more persistent near the coast. After that, a few days with a very cold NW/N flow as the upper high ridges into Scandinavia, sharp frosts and some snow showers likely. By Saturday, the advancing cold pool advects westward and the convective window opens, a NE flow with -8c 850s. The cold pool then advances and some disruptions in a cold NE/E flow give heavy snow shrs, with -8c/-9c 850s widespread throughout the weekend and into Tuesday. The 216 and 240 charts are glorious- severe snow showers brought on a by a stiff ENE wind. Interesting times to come again.

There's plenty of things you can call modelling, but 'zonal' is not one of them These upcoming charts are very promising, and the EC 12z solution in particular is very cold. Have a look at how Scandinavia is developing... that will be key for mid February- and right now it's looking like the cold pool is advecting south-west... and sticking there

Very windy, but 1/8 okta, what a superb day! Sun feels warm when the wind stops momentarily

The upper ridge just sticks out as the amplified trough edges SSW-NNE into Greenland instead of S/SSE-N/NNW, which is a shame- but the cold air advecting westwards would still mean a very cold snap for many north-eastern parts, with -10c t850s incoming- certainly a very optimistic EC which is a step in the right direction in terms of 'positive' retrogression

No Greenland high- but the retrogressive ridge points north... the cold air begins to advect west/south-west... a very unstable N/NE flow

Look closely, temperatures are below 2c for all of the region on that chart, bar the far north of it (look at the shading), and with evap cooling, even better Max temps of 1-2c for most of the region, nearer to 3c/4c on the NW coast... that's definitely cold enough for most of the region... I dread to say it, but freezing rain and sleet is also very likely for low-lying areas

Despite the slit wrists in the MOD, the 12z would probably be snowier for much of Scotland, in fact, more so than the latest 'cold' spell Impressive surge of polar maritime air moving in from d6... that is a very potent polar NW'ly incoming!!

Impressive surge of cold air on the 12z, -5c t850s into Barcelona by Saturday evening it may not change the overall 'zonality' that is on the board, but it does signal that it's a very weak zonal signal, and the tendency for rPm/Pm airmasses eventually dominate the Tm airmass, and it's infact a very snowy run for much of Scotland and the north-west, especially on high ground

Huge wind speeds and gradient tonight and tomorrow morning for much of Scotland- wind speeds passing 30m/s widespread across N Scotland with central pressure of 956mb crashing into the N Isles; very cold over the highlands as well with some strong gusts bringing in wintry shrs Wednesday sees much of Scotland, especially the north, encounter more strong winds before Thursday moves the focus south- on Friday, the focus according to the 12z GFS appears to be for SW England and S Wales, with wind speeds over 25m/s; it then goes out into the English Channel, however, the 6z prognosis put a strong focus on the NW England and W Wales areas, before sliding SE into SW England and the Channel, so there is the potential for another shift in the storm trajectory. The early hours of tomorrow morning have a noticeable wind gradient and are even stronger wind-wise than Friday gives for western and south-western areas, but both events are notable in their strength and should be watched

large snow event for many in the south of your region on the 12z GFS... talking Cheshire mainly, with the Peak District seeing big snowfall... note the 6z had the NW being at the south-extent of the precip so lots of volatility... but the system moving from the w/sw should cause some disruption for much of your region whether it be heavy rain or snow... what is for sure is the very strong winds to come on Friday, especially the evening as the system intensifies..

This is what makes our climate interesting to say the least- 12z prognosis 1c in Liverpool, 11c in Oxford... real temp difference on this incoming system, some big temperature fluctuations... the precip signal on this one also says very snowy for parts of North Wales and the ultimate marginal event for much of NW England/W Midlands, veering on the side of snow for most though... another big event coming up? NOTE the 6z had the central pressure over Leeds at 18z Fri, the 12z has it over London... the former had a big snow/rain event over NW/NE England and Yorks, this current run is all about NW England/N Wales/Mids... big changes to come and a fun day Friday!

6z 84 illustrates the Friday situation very well- the immense jet streak off the eastern seaboard is disrupted by the tropospheric ridge- leading to a fragmentation, and an amplified jet slides west of the upper trough. Mild sector trapped in the progressive low is increasingly mixed out through Fri- the 18z Fri prognosis shows the intense sub-970mb pressure system over the midlands.. the temporary colder pool to the north and north-east is to follow; the system moves from the WSW, with the main areas of precip being Ireland, the Midlands and Northern England, heavy rain for most with some heavy snow on higher ground, though the likelyhood is for rain to snow- -8c t850s for many northern parts on Saturday morning- pushed on by a signal for a N/NE upper wind; lots of convection for the east coast.. Friday and Saturday look increasingly interesting, with strong winds, heavy and increasingly wintry precip with very low central pressure- edit- 12z weakens the system from 969mb to 976mb, and pushes it further south.. signal then for Ireland, the Midlands and East Anglia- with colder air flowing in for the north thereafter

I'm 15, so still plenty of time for its effects - touch wood. With the current situation of natural cooling effects not being able to cool the earth, but simply slow the warming, I dread to think about the warming once solar activity and various teleconnections turn the other way... I think there will be more 'unorthodox' weather, and perhaps a slow change in climate for areas in mid-latitude regions such as North America, Europe and North Asia, with the movement and tampering of the polar jet- though I can only speculate on what is fairly recent changes. The Arctic is in big trouble though, what its effects will be on us is yet unknown...