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Isolated Frost

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Everything posted by Isolated Frost

  1. The first half of September 2013 looks to be between 0.9c and 1.1c cooler than the first half of September 2012 here in Durham; but 2012 ended much cooler due to a very cool second half, coming in at 10.55c.
  2. Not necessarily Gav- the amount of gain in cover between then and November (most importantly October) is the main indicator of blocking patterns in the coming winter.
  3. 9c after a max of 14c. Very cool at the moment, marked drop in dew points as well, current a notably cool 3c DP temperature. Clear with a few clouds and very breezy.
  4. Durham at 13.45c, 0.35c above average. Daytime temperatures will go below average after tonight.
  5. Neoliberal is not positive. Merkel is there because, like Britain, there is no true leftist alternative. The social democrats are a joke, the far left are steeped in history, and the greens are, well, greens. Easy Merkel victory- but the FDP (liberal to the max) will see a big loss in vote.
  6. Stockholm / Helsinki / Sapporo / Geneve / Brussels / Lyon / Athens / Los Angeles / Naples / New York City / Montreal / Boston Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr/May/Jun/Jul/Aug/Sep/Oct/Nov/Dec
  7. I think Sebastiaan/Cohen have a strong point; but mid-Sept growth is a positive for me, looking at recent yrs- I think November looks a good bet for early blocking on the AO/Ice/QBO comps- snow advance accompanied by shifting dynamics, and an increasingly weak sun, come the equinox, snow cover becomes increasingly relevant. I think the Strat/Tech threads are becoming increasingly important now- with a big focus on teleconnections and snow/ice.
  8. 11c, cloudy, pretty windy- surface wet after earlier rain. Overnight low of 6c.
  9. Sep-Oct-Nov all good; I think this'll promote Nern blocking come Nov.
  10. Another pretty cool day- some cloud in the afternoon, but clear during the morning and evening, a high of 15c. Currently clear skies and feeling very, very nippy outside; 7c.
  11. life's just got way too much to do, I just want to relax!
  12. Nope- just more tabloid rubbish about the MetO, who have really impressed in recent years, and probably have the best forecasters in Europe.
  13. PV, most important feature of our winter in my opinion (amongst many others though), looks very active, which for me is a positive looking at composites. If there is any time you want a strong, active vortex with cold energy just spilling out, it's now. cold arctic high across the Russian arctic should help the ice recover, and large snow events across eastern Siberia and arctic Canada likely; also a potent N/NW flow across Iceland and Britain sharp -AO if you've ever seen one
  14. Would love a cold and frosty November-December period with some snow, but I think I'll be let down- plenty of hard frosts will do. Jan and Feb can have big snowfalls and glumness/darkness to match my mood when I go back to school, and then March onwards, warmth and sunshine por favor.
  15. Much of the next 7 days is dominated by mP airstreams; with temperatures near or just below average, especially across northern areas. Plenty of rain and sleet/snow for this chart in Scotland; the first time the -5c 850 isotherm has appeared on the North Sea stamp- the chance of high pressure building on later, but this weekend, and then an interlude next week look particularly cool, wet, and windy for most.
  16. My composites say November cooler, December average-mild, January cooler and February much cooler.
  17. I don't like spiders, flies, slugs, whatever. Major trust issues with them.
  18. November looks interesting even when you take out the projected +ve heights to the NE and nearby polar jet activity- though it is much more conductive to more N/NE rather than E/SE flow if October does come out as +ve AO month. I think I'd go 40-60 for the October CET to be below average, and 70-30 for the November one to be. I think December will be pretty dry, but all signals are for a pretty average/slightly milder start to the season.
  19. FWIW, based on my more updated August-September-October projections and modelling; November looks to be cooler than average.
  20. Indeed, I'm sure Chiono, Lorenzo and many others will have plenty of technical insight on the upcoming winter as well though.
  21. The first projected snowfall for lowland Svalbard tomorrow, with a veil of cloud bearing rain and snow moving from the SW during the day, by the late afternoon, Longyearbyen should be seeing its first snow of the long winter ahead. Could be quite a snowy evening up there for them- you can track it here: http://longyearbyen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php
  22. My AO experiment, round 1: based on the August reading, September and October projections- this is my VERY preliminary winter forecast. My 3 composites on August, September and October values are the only 3 of the past 30 years, and are all pretty consistent. Note the 3 composites are 65% likely (August definite, September 80% and October 50%, by mid-Oct I can make a much clearer forecast). December about 40% confidence as of September 10 Milder and drier than usual- with the north likely to be wetter, and western areas slightly cooler with a more +ve height outlook. January about 30% confidence as of September 10 Slightly cooler, potentially much cooler at times with +ve heights building to the NE, and a negative tilted polar jet- the likelyhood of battleground situations increase with an increasingly influential continental block against the atlantic. February about 15% confidence as of September 10 Confidence is much lower at this point- but on composites and projections, an extreme month with E winds prominent, a strong +ve height anomaly to the north, and -ve anomaly to the south, with temperatures much colder than the average, especially the further south and east you are. That's my very early attempt of a forecast, I'll update it in a months time (if September doesn't turn out like expected), and then make a final one in early November. Mild and dry start, increasingly cold and active as we move in to 2014 are the early thoughts. Composites that include Feb 86, Feb 91 and Feb 09 definitely make you think.
  23. 1990 is cropping up here! I think that the possibility of a strong late season event is strong based on pure arctic composites; good to see that the QBO strengthens that up; will have a read of some of these papers on it I think.
  24. As I said, it's just an experiment on Arctic Oscillation, I used the composite of neutral August (which has occurred), and neutral September looking likely on the basis of -0.5 > 0.5 as neutral values. If you have a look on the in-depth technical thread, here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/?p=2784257, you can see the September neutral / October +ve composite; which I'm sure you won't mind!
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