Isolated Frost

Oh no! I'll save the composites next time, I'll have another go. Current Arctic Oscillation values (forecasting/modelling to 20 Sep) seems to be suggesting a near neutral September after a +ve AO start. A lot will depend on the last 10 days. Anyway, these are September neutral (-0.5 to 0.5 value) AO composites for the last 30 years (for November-January) -ve anomaly across the UK and to the W/NW, large +ve anomaly to the N/NE. Suggesting a pretty cold outlook for the UK, with the atlantic battling a strong northern/continental block. The GPH values however indicate the lack of blocking o/ Greenland, and a strong atlantic. So, that seems to be the 'benchmark' of neutral September AO values. But remember, that is November-January. Roll that forward to December-February (the signal will weaken as it is more long-term)... Let's retrogress... the signal for +ve heights shifts west towards Greenland, and -ve anomalies towards Nova Scotia. No full on Greenland block, but more positive signs for cold weather into January and February you would imagine. The AO is by no means a guaranteed forecast projector, far from it, with the use of ENSO/QBO/Stratosphere (increasingly popular I see) and shortwaves (!), but I believe the Arctic is a major driver in our weather, and think this summer has shown that reasonably well. I will go further on this in a bit, as Sep may not end neutral- and I will try some more Sep-Oct-Nov pairings to gain reliability. I would love anyone to give any feedback on this post! So, in essence, a neutral September AO is likely to provide wetter weather in the early part of the season, with a strong block to the NE and the chance of colder Easterly incursions, before the block triumphs later on in the season, and gives drier and cooler weather by February.

Once fell to -12c, told everyone in my house to man up and wear jumpers and coats. The day I turn that thermostat up is the day I die. 14 inches.

Ultra scrooge mode there. Do you really hate snow that much?! Surely you at least like the look of it?! I know it's hard to travel in it, but surely life has more than work!

It says there that the Met Office's UK series dates back to 1914, not before 1868-69.

9c, a pretty typical autumnal day, with a max of 16c, some sunshine and cloud early on, followed by some light rain and more cloud cover this evening. September average starting to creep closer to the 81-10 average, before the warmer few days to come.

I have three, very recent ones. 4 inches of new snow overnight to start New Years' Day, from a brisk NE wind. A trough associated with the cA flow gave around 15cms of new snow within about 1 and a half hours, heaviest snow I'd ever seen. This is the first real big fall of Nov/Dec 2010 and preceded many great thundersnow and cold days to the end of the month. An epic cold front- not much snow from it (max 10cms lying, Dec 25), but immense cold temperatures. Many areas around here saw 9 or 10 consecutive ice days from the 16th to the 25th, with temperatures falling below -5c and occasionally -10c, and struggling to reach 0c by day.

July 2013 was the second warmest month since records began in 1880, here in Durham. Provisionally, compared to the 1981-10 averages, here at Durham: June 13.5c (8.9c/18.1c) +0.2c July 18c (23.2c/12.8c) +2.4c August 16.25c (20.6c/11.9c) +0.85c A very warm summer, all months above average. June-August provisionally coming in at 15.9c, +1.1c above the 81-10 average. Last 10 years: 2012: 14.2c (-0.6c) 2011: 14.3c (-0.5c) 2010: 15.1c (+0.3c) 2009: 15.0c (+0.2c) 2008: 15.0c (+0.2c) 2007: 14.5c (-0.3c) 2006: 16.2c (+1.4c) 2005: 15.1c (+0.3c) 2004: 15.2c (+0.4c) 2003: 16.2c (+1.4c) Provisionally the warmest July-August (17.1c) ever here at Durham. A very notable summer. Another interesting fact, July's minimum temperature average was warmer than July 2006's by 0.4c.

Bizarre and a bit weird, 16.9c and overcast at 1400, 11.0c w/ light rain at 1500. Very sharp drop in the middle of the day.

14.25c to the 8th, 1.15c above the average- here at Durham. At this point last year, Durham was 15.85c, 2.75c above the average- but of course the end of the month was very cool and some low minima and maxima, the last 21 days had no days with an average above 14c; unlikely to see that here. Last September was the coolest since 1997.

Cool, but not quite as cool as yesterday morning, currently 6c.

Lowest temperature since May 25th. Low 3c. High 15c. Current temperature 11c.

3c morning and mid-teen highs recently, but no heating... yet. Can see it getting flicked on temporarily over the next few weeks.

14.75c here at Durham to the 7th, 1.65c above the 81-10 average.

Live about 50km SE of Redesdale, got down to a very brisk 3c this morning, didn't expect that! Warmed up quickly though.

Got down to 3c here this morning, already 11c with clear skies. First distinctly cold morning in quite a while.

Yes please!

http://longyearbyen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php Anyone else notice the top of the Svalbard hills have a sprinkle of snow cover now? And the EC 0z solution gives -5c 850s into central-western Russia; quite notable for mid-September, unlikely to verify at d10 but still an interesting possibility.

10c and heavy rain and cold here. I love it, but it's not usable or comfortable to be out in, though it's a change I guess. Being inside is brilliant though.

10c, mod-heavy constant rain and a cool wind. Very autumnal.

Beautiful day... and then from 2pm at 22c to 7pm at 14c, cloud and increasing winds... here's Autumn!

Not wanting to open a can of worms, but global warming IS happening...

I'm enjoying this, we might not see the likes of this warmth until next May or June! Mind, I'm looking forward to the cold and rain as well, but this sun has been glorious, temperature dropping now- very autumnal week really. Warm, sunny, and turning to cool, wet and windy. Active stuff.

Another (!) lovely day with temperatures reaching 23c again, hot sunshine, a touch more cloud, but again, a mostly clear and very pleasant evening. Temperature fell 3c in last hour at Durham- currently 16c, most likely that today was the last of the warm sunshine, before heavy rain and cooler conditions this weekend. Next week looks like being very mixed, but chances for sunshine with W/SW winds likely to dominate.

Looks more like +8!! I imagine it's since updated from when you last posted it, because I don't think you'd like that chart!

Here in Durham, October 2001 averaged 12.8c, warmer than May of that year (11.6c) and just behind June and September (both 12.9c), October 2001 was much warmer than October 2005 and 2011 here. I can only really remember October 1st hitting 25c here, which was really notable, but that's about it.