Isolated Frost
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Posts posted by Isolated Frost
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9c after a high of 11c. Cloud and rain throughout the day, about an hour of sun and feeling cold again.
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Looks like being a pretty mild October unless we have an exceptional last 10 days.
3.1c above the average here in Durham; I'd imagine it's been one of the warmest first 10-11 days in history across the country, for October.
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I have been waiting for the winter curse from the Express and today it has hit
Winters over
Winter 2011 / 12 they said it would be bitter and it was mild, last year they said the same it was only slightly below average
They say it every winter, from 09-10 (very, very cold), 10-11 (actually record breaking aswell), 11-12 (much milder) and 12-13 (a pretty cold winter incl March), it doesn't affect the winter itself.
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Not very likely; look where the mild uppers reach; lots of changing in NWP as well, we're well above so I think it is a case of just waiting and calming down.
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Top temp 10c, coldest day since May (or perhaps earlier), plenty of sun and heavy rain shrs.
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5c, after a rainy start, skies seem to be clearing. Cooler than of late.
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Coldest temperature all October now, and the dew point is 2c, the wind is howling and the sun is setting; uber Autumnal! Think it's time to fire up the heating...
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All i see is that Arctic high maintaining a split in the vortex. Very good signs indeed. this time last year, there was no Northern blocking to be seen whatsoever!
That maybe because later on in that October, we had this?!
I think the balance between a E/NE flow w/ complete retrogression and a southerly Atlantic trough into the Bay of Biscay, and a SW/S flow w/ little retrogression as a more meridional Atlantic trough takes command will see plenty of solutions in the next few days; to stay away from the pain and anguish many get, try focusing on one model and a specific run (i.e. GFS 6z every day..), I'm looking at the EC 12z each day for trends; and keeping other NWP and t-connections in mind as well; but the EC for me performs the best, and the 12z is available each evening.
If we have anything remotely similar to this at 216, I'll be very pleased; a lot rests upon the NWP modelling of the retrogression around d6-d8 and how it copes with the Atlantic trough...
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10c, feeling much cooler than of late. Heavy rain squall around midday, clear spells either side of that. Could get the coldest temperature of October tonight, which isn't as the coldest so far has been 3c above the minima average!
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No single figures yet, 10c low here this morning, though cooler of late. Mostly clear with cloudy patches.
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Only got under 5c once so far in Autumn!
Hopefully that will change with some cooler airmasses coming over, though I'm hoping it can clear at night for the first ground frost.
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11c after a maximum temperature of 17c, cloud, sun and pretty breezy. Mild for the time of year, though that's all likely to change...
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Are we ever on the right of the cold lol. Lets be honest.Whats irritating though is that we are often very very close to it.
Numero uno, it's October.
Numero dos, yes we are, a lot of the time in fact, just that lots of people prefer negatives and remember them more also.
Numero tres, we are on the edge of the Atlantic; a pretty large piece of warm water, it's only due to atmospheric quirks that we get weather besides mild, cloudy westerlies...
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First 7 days here in October had an anomaly of +4.4c! The average minimum was in fact 5.5c above the usual; this is going to take a huge hit, especially if tonights EC verifies (or comes very close to).
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What a great EC for a taste of winter! No snow (at least within 10 days) or sleet, but quite cold and synoptically very similar to the evolution of other cold spells. Scandinavia and Eastern Europe (especially Russia) will see a lot of colder weather over the next few weeks w/ retrogression in full force and the Atlantic taking it's first battering.
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Top notch regression at d9 on the EC- very cold across Scandinavia and Eastern Europe prior to this as well- and Gav, I wouldn't bank on much sunshine anywhere, with a lot of low cloud cover likely to rotate and delve into the HP cell throughout next week.
The negative tilted Atlantic trough has been a major feature of recent years- will be interesting to see whether the EC and other NWP continue to project it.
All in all, a pretty cool and cloudy week likely for most, with snow and sleet and sun at a premium. Plenty of drizzle and low cloud though.
And indeed d10 is a scorcher (for mid October, and if scorcher is pretty cold); w/ the retrogression going full moon.
Wouldn't bank on an immediate return to milder conditions at all. Cooler and drier than usual the likely outcome I'd say.
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Top notch regression at d9 on the EC- very cold across Scandinavia and Eastern Europe prior to this as well- and Gav, I wouldn't bank on much sunshine anywhere, with a lot of low cloud cover likely to rotate and delve into the HP cell throughout next week.
The negative tilted Atlantic trough has been a major feature of recent years- will be interesting to see whether the EC and other NWP continue to project it.
All in all, a pretty cool and cloudy week likely for most, with snow and sleet and sun at a premium. Plenty of drizzle and low cloud though.
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Indeed, an extremely warm start, the first 8 days in October were warmer than the first 8 of September here in Durham; which I presume is not a regular occurence.
Getting much cooler up here though- with temperatures at day hovering around 10c and nighttime temperatures returning to average over the next few days; I'd imagine with the influence of a cooler NE/E wind more prone to attack S England w/ the proximity of the high for northern areas apparent, the CET may well drop down more than the UK average.
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Would be nice for tonights EC to continue its recent output of a slack N/NE flow into Scandinavia w/ very cold uppers I assume at d8 onwards; the domination of the HP cell seems to be the name of the NWP game at the moment, and the first notable retrogression and associated contraction of the Polar Jet of the winter.
Haven't heard the term 'WAA' in a while...
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No correlation between a cool surface high interlude and mid-October and the winter that follows.
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Here in Durham, the first 5 days of October have been 1c warmer than the last 20 of September, and over half a degree above September's value of 12.75c. The next few days look average if not slightly warmer than usual, before a steady drop to mid-month.
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Another warm October day, 15c, cloud and sun with a slight breeze. Very much comfortable weather.
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Snow creeping steadily further SW.
Top chart; cold and wintery in Scandinavia w/ very cold uppers dashing south into Europe, and some low temperatures under a cool inversion high here in the UK. Perfect to build up the excitement for Winter.
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Ground frosts generally occur here in October, or sometimes mid-late September. It only got down to 3c in September though, so we're still waiting.
Air frost is usually late October, or November; very rarely earlier.
Far North of England Regional Discussion: 21st May 2013 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Indeed; looks like it will be very short-lived though, next week looks very mild. Oct temp doesn't affect following winter usually though, Oct snow cover and ice area/extent much more important, so I'm enjoying the warmth, but it's bloody boring with no frosts or storms.