Isolated Frost

Some scattered heavy snow showers today on the SE breeze. Tomorrow, much heavier ones and more organised with the breeze turning E/NE. Sunday looks less active, but still some showers, and a band moves in from the S, that could clip us and give us a few cms.

Today, the upper air wind vectors are primarily SE, but turn slowly E/SE for many in the afternoon/evening. Tomorrow, the wind vectors turn sharply and by tomorrow night, they'll be as far as E/NE. Plenty of showers for NE Scotland, E Scotland, SE Scotland and potentially C Scotland today.

NCL TAF for tonight? 1800 (18.) to 0600 (19.) 130 SE at 33km/h gusting to 56km/h 800m heavy thunderstorm snow; blowing snow Aye.

Good luck Cymru!

I'd wait until Sunday- plenty to change regarding that- DPs from the GFS are useless- it's got the whole idea wrong and it'll backtrack big time over the wknd towards the GEM, UKMO and ECM (see my post in previous thread re: upper heights). My amateur prediction forecast for convective snowfall between 0600 Friday and 1800 Sunday

Here is my (paint job again!) prediction for convective snowfall between 0600 Friday 18 January and 1800 Sunday 20 January

Oh yes please! Latest TAF for NCL tomorrow 1200 to 0000. SE at 130 degrees gusting 46km/h. Heavy showers snow, blowing snow. Vis 800m Tomorrow could be quite something when the cloud movement is ESE/SE!

From the Scottish thread

The dynamics of the North Sea seem to favour high intensity snow showers moving first from the SE and then the ESE, from the southern North Sea tomorrow. It looks like NE England, and E Scotland should see very heavy, scattered showers, banding up at times. This probably means both regions are very snowy tomorrow, from morning onwards, with NE Scotland and E Scotland in the firing line. EC dynamics plot a SE/ESE flow come Saturday with strong convection, so lighter or moderate snow shrs for the NE of England/SE of Scotland, and more, very heavy snow showers for NE Scotland and E Scotland. Sunday, the focus shifts further south- and so the snow showers move in from the E, originally strong in E Scotland, moving into SE Scotland and NE England, for a very snowy wknd. All eastern coastal counties in NE England and Scotland should be prepared for some heavy convective snow shrs on the wknd, backed up by the NMM and HD-ECM. The focus of these showers shift, but all regions on the east coast, and further inland at times, should be effected with 10-20cm over the next 3 day period in many, the possibility for more also exists.

Check out the yr.no precip from the hi-res EC , LS. Very good at picking out convection.

The Mail and Express routinely lie and use sensationalism in their views- to gain readers and manipulate the public. The Met Office do none of the sort. This has nothing to do with the North West, or the upcoming snow spell, and if you think it does, you're bonkers. Any further posts will be deleted on the matter.

Oh fgs, now is not the time for green/enviro claptrap about the MO, leave it out of this thread.

TAF for NCL going for snow shrs 0600 to 1200, and snow from 1200 to 1800.

WHY AYEEEE* You smoggies gave us Holly, for that, you go to the naughty corner.

Pah, you're right, that's nothing like the reality.

Feb 2009 was superb IIRC- I don't think we could get that. Mind you, something similar would be portrayed by the humidity/upper air profiles. There is no local cold upper low however- and the atlantic is closer (which fuels it a little I guess).

I think Friday and Saturday definitely have the potential for 5cms each, and Sunday sees the showers peter out, but still seem pretty organised and intense.

He said it was 'possible'- though it's unlikely

SES (sea-effect snow) is what we called it I think, and yes, it's a truly marvellous thing. Sting of higher upper humidity pushing in tomorrow evening- loadsa snow! I believe 'bosh' is how the fine folks at Geordie Shore HQ would describe it.

It's great to be positioned right on the edge of the North Sea. Cold air, passing through less cold sea, plenty of moisture, little modification of course, and convection supreme. It's lovely to have a little convective space between us and mainland Europe

BBC look north forecast updated, only until 1700 tomorrow, but very snowy for the NE from mid-morning.

With convective shrs, you never know. The scale of them and intensity looks the main thought of concern atm. Saturday looks even snowier than tomorrow, and then Sunday lightens it up a bit (snow-wise, no sun!!). All eyes on Mooney, Bayman, Gallagher and co.

Not a clue Dave- more likely probably, but by morning, the SE wind means that it's less likely with more activity likely away from the NE Yorkshire coast. Latest NMM has a small, very intense band of heavy snow across the NE tomorrow afternoon. All of the run has wintry precip over the NE from 0000 tonight (though patchy until 10am tomorrow).

BBC forecast at 2158 shows heavy snow showers tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday, especially tomorrow evening and Saturday for the NE of England. A very snowy few days.

Through the night, we see the 850hpa wind vectors turn from SSE to SE in the NE- this might bring a bit more into the south of the region.