Jump to content

Isolated Frost

  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


Everything posted by Isolated Frost

  1. been cooped up with the flu most of this week which has limited my enjoyment of the spell. 16cm here in ne38 compared to 42cm on december 3 2010, and 34cm in january 2010, and with less prolonged cold/snow and less extremes also, but a notable spell nonetheless. definitely the best since 2010. as with the nature of most showers, there's a lot of local disparity and so travelling a few miles north or south would provide better depths for sure. there's just something i appreciate much more about cold spells before the new year than those afterwards with uppers below -10c for about 5 days st
  2. dark sky is usually on the money with its 1h precip forecasts
  3. there’s that kink that explains why the showers will spend the majority of the day moving with a slight northwards trajectory. not usually the best for our region, but with -15c 850s across the sea, everyone can expect a little something
  4. kink in the upper level winds (and associated increase in gusts) means most the showers should come from the ESE for much of today, after moving from NE-ENE over the last 24 hours. by this evening it’s likely to have straightened out towards a E flow once more but expect the best of the showers to affect the north of the region until then
  5. https://www.netrafficcams.co.uk/map useful link for traffic cameras across the region nothing better than when the north sea revs up, is there?
  6. I couldn't analyse anything about what happens after +192 because it's just really weird... 216 is something I've not seen before at all! Mind you, at d10 we have -8c uppers touching E Scotland with shortwaves and heavy snow across Scotland and N England- but regardless, it'd be best (for the UK) to summarise the EC as this: -cool and windy today and tomorrow, some wintry shrs on high ground (mostly above 500m) -turning milder by Monday, up until around the 23rd; with cloudy and warmer conditions likely to prevail -turning colder by Wednesday, especially in Scotland and the northern areas,
  7. I'll be honest here, I've been looking but not really noting much of the GFS output; it's just been too volatile. Good for fun and games, but past D7 I'm just taking it with a big pinch of salt. The EC is the model I've been looking at more often than not; and in particular the 12z. and at least at D6, there is some consistency with yesterday's (first pic today's 12z EC at D6, second pic yesterday's 12z for D7 - same date) Good general consistency, with a stronger Greenland height profile, and lesser +ve Europe pressure anomaly; good run up to D6 so far I'd say on that note- some snow s
  8. Well... Iceland's getting blasted at least. Icelandic low completely scuppers the deeper cold on the EC; a developing trend; but regardless, very encouraging to see the the WAA and building of Greenland/mid-Atlantic heights; strat effects may mean this is going to be a very slow build up to the coldest spell. Intriguing output from now till then. It may not be instant cold, but D10 is one of my favourite charts since that projected Dec 12 easterly that never happened... magic:
  9. -3c low this morning and we haven't passed 3c today; I think the last 24 hours have been more wintry than 3 months of 13/14.

    1. lassie23


      Was mostly in double figures last winter

    2. Lauren


      Christmas day was 14C here!

    3. lassie23


      yes something like that here too, felt like spring!

  10. Imagine a year like this but with some real warmth in the next few years, nothing to say we can't push towards 12c.
  11. I've only just looked at this thread and this early reply strikes me as interesting; particularly as multinational corporations, in particular, oil and gas giants often form the anti-AGW lobby; whilst the majority of respected scientists form the AGW lobby. In reference to the title, I can't really see it happening whatsoever, we'd need to recover sharply from the near lows we are currently at before we can formulate some coherent response as to where we go next- we're teetering on the abyss no matter what inter-year anomalies suggest.
  12. I've never changed from my first value and I'm not going to change from the 4c I guessed a week ago, week ago, but I'm imagining that I might be a touch on the high side with it.
  13. Maxima have held up around 9-13c here, distinctly average; only issue is minima have been almost identical to them, as is often the case in recent Autumns, very frost free November so far.
  14. When comparing the years used on the analogue for October AO, with November AO in brackets (trivial, perhaps, but I've done it nonetheless): 1959: -0.249 (-1.411) 1962: -0.016 (-1.112) 1965: 0.394 (-1.341) 1968: -1.013 (-2.183) 1969: 0.098 (0.326) 1976: -0.804 (-0.087) 1985: 1.035 (-1.218) 2009: -1.540 (0.459) 2014: -1.134 With the AO set to trend quite low in the next few days, 68/69? Further on from this, each of the winters used by the OPI analogue have featured a sub -2 AO month: (DJF CET 4.6) 1959/1960: -0.042, -2.484, -2.212 ( -0.3) 1962/1963: -0.711, -3.311, -1.721 (
  15. Certainly looking cold... When using uniform scales, to try and see how each compares, this is what comes out: (using 500mb GPH from -160mb to 160mb anomaly, 850mb temp from -4c to 4c anomaly) December Slightly cooler with rather insignificant anomalies, very much in line with the reduced OPI-Dec CET correlation, though stratospheric changes in November as pointed out by Chiono and many more could be integral to seeing which way it tips (seems like either average or thereabouts, to pretty cold). January Much more marked, again various other factors will probably temper or accen
  16. 56% SNP? 15% Labour? 3% UKIP compared to over 15% in the rUK? 19% of Scots voting for government parties? It's almost like... you've got... a different country!
  17. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81494-october-pattern-index-opi-monitoring-winter-season-2014-2015/?p=3051011 Here you go.
  18. from facebook: In Scotland, at least, now there's two meanings to 'there's nobody left in the Labour party'
  19. Just read what the very useful OPI team response, and then the replies saying 'back to square one' and 'gutted'. As far as I can tell, the post simply confirmed a lot of what we thought, along with adding the IZE (which could also be useful for future), but the OPI-AO/CET correlation hasn't actually changed. Sub -1.5 OPIs have still provided pretty cold winters, and it's currently -2.43? Bon nuit.
  20. Utmost respect for the Met, but this is the OPI thread of course. And anyway, if we went by the contingency forecasts... where's my below average NDJ last year?
  21. -2.45 with 120 hours of input to go Considering that means it's had 624 hours of real data and 120 of forecasted data; so I think it's very much settled between -2.2 and -2.7; think everyone here would have took that on the 1st.
  • Create New...