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Isolated Frost

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Everything posted by Isolated Frost

  1. 0.25c below the average at Durham provisionally, with two days to go, so a very average month likely. First 10 days here averaged 13.95c (+0.85c) Middle 10 days averaged 11.15c (-1.95c) Last 8 days averaged 13.55c (+0.45c)
  2. Usually when I wake up, I'll have a look at Breakfast and the weather forecast- and at night, if I'm in, I might have a look at Look North. Internet has a lot more data I think now- I remember the good old BBC forecasts though.
  3. Much cooler here... 5c, cloud and sun. Definite chill in the air. 9c/10c low forecasts out the window.
  4. Only got to 14c here today, around the average. Felt cooler due to the cloud cover though- pleasant weather is generally sunny and warm/hot (14-15c+ in winter/spring, 18c/19c+ in summer/autumn). Probably find mid 20s the nicest to be in. Exciting weather on the other hand, anything from an air frost, a cold front or some snow to me- doesn't have to be pleasant.
  5. Doubting myself now WSI agrees! badboy, you would have hated autumn 2009! Full of warm synoptics with SW/S winds and 18c in November... what happened next?
  6. Cheers for the links BFTV, and input Interitus. Definitely muddled myself up mixing the SAI and the cover extent. I think that the SAI and in turn Polar Vortex (both stratospheric and tropospheric) are increasingly vital in long term forecasting- and it's great seeing the attention- especially off last year- but hopefully again this year.
  7. 13c to the 24th here, 0.1c below the 81-10 average. Looks like turning milder than average in the end...
  8. 11c, wet, cool and grey. Persistent heavy drizzle under overcast clouds and a nippy SE breeze. High of 14c.
  9. Cheers Interitus, will edit tonight. Is there an available SAI index to observe though?
  10. 13c, the temperatures has been between 13.2c and 13.7c for the last 13 hours. Cloudy, raw, wind from the E/SE.
  11. October Eurasian SAI in km2 w/ Aug-Sep (tbc) AO analogues + (October AO value) 2010: 9.13 (neutral) 1996: 7.50 (neutral) 2008: 7.51 (positive) 2007: 7.63 (neutral) 2003: 9.48 (negative) 2002: 11.15 (negative) 2000: 8.23 (neutral) 1997: 6.24 (negative) 1993: 8.79 (negative) 1990: 7.00 (positive) 1985: 8.62 (positive) 1984: 8.93 (neutral) Then aligned in terms of October Eurasian SAI 2002: 11.15 (negative) 2003: 9.48 (negative) 2010: 9.13 (neutral) 1984: 8.93 (neutral) 1993: 8.79 (negative) 1985: 8.62 (positive) 2000: 8.23 (neutral) 2007: 7.63 (neutral) 2008: 7.51 (positive) 1996: 7.50 (neutral) 1990: 7.00 (positive) 1997: 6.24 (negative) Positive AO in October linked with lower October SAI- explains the lack of Western European cold anomalies during December/January during the years in question. Aug-Sep-Oct AO values have a link w/ October SAI; generally a NEU-NEU-POS AO favors colder Februaries and average Decembers and Januaries. A NEU-NEU-NEG favors mild Februaries. Whilst a NEU-NEU-NEU, favors a cold start and milder end. Composites So far, we have had a NEU (Aug) and a NEU/NEG (Sep), it looks to be favoring NEU-NEG (1996, 2010)- instead of the NEU-NEU (1997, 1990, 2008, 2007, 2000, 1993, 1984, 2003, 2002). We'll see the September value in a week or so. NEU-NEU-POS AO values (1985, 1990 and 2008) generally favor cold February temperatures for Western Europe. NEU-NEU-NEG AO values (1993, 1997, 2002 and 2003) generally favor milder February temperatures for Western Europe. NEU-NEU-NEU AO values (1984, 2000 and 2007) give cooler Winter temperatures on average, with few extremes. The link I think I've found is that (when added to the neutral-neutral AO values prior to October): positive AO values in October usually provide cold Februaries for Western Europe- regardless of SAI. neutral AO values in October usually provide average Februaries for Western Europe- though the larger the October SAI, the cooler it is likely to be. negative AO values in October usually provide milder Februaries for Western Europe- unless there is a exceptionally large increase in the SAI. I'll continue this tomorrow (tired as hell atm), but the link seems to be that Arctic Oscillation during August-October not only correlate very well to conditions in the mid-latitudes during the meterological Winter, but that the October Eurasian SAI can alter and disturb this signal. November looks cold regardless of the October SAI and AO- though different analogues will provide different solutions; will try and explain more tomorrow, night ..
  12. Latest update for my October-November f'cast as same, will go for the winter one in early early November. Same pattern, slight adjustment as Sep AO seems to be dipping negative; drier, mild-average October accompanied by a much colder and potentially wintry November...
  13. Warmer than average, but feeling cooler under a raw E/SE flow and overcast skies. Top temperature 16c, currently 14c.
  14. oh come on, where's my single figure highs and ground frosts??? all this warmth and happiness is getting to me

    1. No Balls Like Snow Balls

      No Balls Like Snow Balls

      Your all obsessed with heating lol

    2. Summer Sun

      Summer Sun

      Even better Scorcher

    3. Eugene

      Eugene

      To the cellar of bottesfords old mansion, where its forever cold<lol

    4. Show next comments  24 more
  15. I'd rather retain morals than be a slave to wages. I would go looking for a new job. Climate's hard, yes. But I'd take a pay cut.
  16. Just what my analogues were going for... enjoy November, then have a long wait until the fun starts again in February...
  17. CFS probably gives more incorrect data on these daily charts- don't see why they're dished out? More chance getting insight watching paint dry or grass grow.
  18. Got lucky again in the NE! Top temperature 21c with clear skies. Now scattered clouds and temperature falling steadily, 17c.
  19. In fact it's not cloudy, it's fog. A thin veil of it- very autumnal morning.
  20. Di Matteo/Reid/McClaren please- no Pulis/McLeish long-ball mid-table manager thank you. Someone with ambition... like Di Canio?!
  21. When has the Burqa ever been used as disguise?
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